Friday 15 June 2012

My early look at Royal Ascot

The Royal meeting kicks off on Tuesday for five days of thrilling, top class flat racing, and as usual, compelling with runners from all over the globe coming to try and upset the home party, Hong Kong, France, Germany, Australia with the wondermare Black Caviar and the typical strong Irish challenge.
And to add to this, the British contingent ain't too bad either, with Frankel kicking off the meeting in the Queen Anne on Tuesday, alongside horses like Bated Breath, Society Rock, Nahrain and Colour Vision leading the British charge.
I think the race involving Frankel could throw up one of the best of the meeting in the shape of Excelebration at an each way price. He is a very good horse, which some people haven't fully realised behind the utter supremacy that Frankel has in this division. Excelebration has won 6 from 11 starts, and considered his defeats are a debut run, where he needed the run badly, and 4 defeats to Frankel in top level company, but never out the frame. He is also more importantly 3 from 3 on soft ground, which Frankel is relatively unraced on out and ou soft ground, just a debut win at Newmarket, whereas Excelebration has won two Group 2's and a Group 1 when on that soft ground.
I like Wizz Kid in the King Stand stakes but the price has seriously gone. I think he has a massive chance, especially if drawn on the stand side rail, which could be a serious factor on rain softened ground which will be the case for the first day more than any of the other days.
The Coventry looks an absolutely brilliant renewal, with a couple I like in there. Sir Prancealot was breathtaking in the way he won at Sandown, with Richard Hughes apparently loving the feel he got, and the yard being very bullish about his chances. He could have won by 8 or 10 lengths if he hadn't suffered the interference he did. Top Boy who was second in that race could run well at much bigger odds.
On the Wednesday, I am looking forward to seeing Nahrain in the Windsor Forest and think she has a cracking chance if lining up. The Prince Of Wales's Stakes looks a cracker too, with So You Think against Cirrus Des Aigles, but Farrh is a fascinating contender too.
Mironica would be a very good candidate in the Queen Mary on the Wednesday if she contests it after an impressive debut recently for connections who have to be feared when venturing this side of the Irish Sea, even more so with 2 and 3 year olds.
On Thursday, I like Colour Vision at each way prices in the Gold Cup. He was impressive on seasonal reappearance at Kempton on his first start for Godolphin, and is sure to stay from his days with Mark Johnston, and with a cracking run at the track where he was closing on Fame And Glory all the time on Champions Day. I think he is better value than most.
In the Britannia, I really like Anaconda, who went down in plenty a notebook from his very impressive maiden win at Lingfield, and has long been aimed at big field 3 year old handicaps, as his trainer, who had success at this meeting last year, particularly likes him. Also, whichever race Hajras goes for, which is least likely to be that race, needs serious consideration.
The Friday is very tricky to judge at the time of writing this as the handicap entries are not out yet.
Aiken could run well if he lined up in the Hardwicke on the Saturday, and hopefully the hype regarding Black Caviar is confirmed, and in a way which will continue to raise her incredible portfolio all over the world. The Wokingham is the big handicap on the Saturday, with a couple of selections for me. I like High Standing, who ran a race full of promise last weekend at Newmarket, a return to form after a season in the wilderness. He is owned by a renowned gambler, so if there is money from now till the race, take it as a positive. I also like Lightning Cloud if he gets in would have a big chance. He fared by far the best of the ones that came from double figure draws and raced down the centre, showing he has clearly carried on his progressive profile, and providing he gets a half decent draw, must go very close at 20/1.
I'll try to do a daily blog if possible through the week
Will
or @willbowler2k12

ADVISED: (Ante Post, NR/NB if possible)
                  5pts E/W (place) Excelebration    (Queen Anne, Tue)
                  4pts WIN Sir Prancealot   (Coventry, Tue)
                  2pts E/W Mironica    (Queen Mary, Wed)
                  2pts WIN Nahrain   (Windsor Forest, Wed)
                  3pts E/W Colour Vision  (Gold Cup, Thu)
                  2pts E/W Anaconda  (Britannia, Thu)
                  1pt E/W Hajras   (numerous possibilities, Thu & Fri)
                  1pt WIN Aiken     (Hardwicke, Sat)
                  1pt E/W High Standing     (Wokingham, Sat)
                  2pts E/W Lightning Cloud     (Wokingham, Sat)

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