Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview

The final day of the Royal meeting looks a really good one with the Wokingham handicap, Diamond Jubilee Stakes and the finale, the Queen Alexandra over the gruelling two and three quarter miles. In this preview, I will try and find the horses which can hopefully end the meeting with wallets full!!

2.30 Chesham Stakes (7f - 20 run)

Will Richard Hughes be smiling with Bunker?

I find this race very tricky to solve virtually every year and this is no different. Bunker is the pick of Richard Hughes, who suggested in his excellent Racing Post article last Saturday that this was his best hope of the week. To be honest, this looks the weakest two year old race of the week and I fully expect a huge run from Bunker in this. If there is an each way angle, it'd be Tinga, who I saw run with lots of promise at Doncaster on debut over six furlongs staying on well at the death, and is now upped to seven which should really help.

3.05 Hardwicke Stakes (1m4f - 9 run)

Ektihaam - Another win at Ascot?

This is a very good race indeed, with Mount Athos the favourite for Jamie Spencer and Dr Marwan Koukash. He is a horse with a good turn of foot, but would ideally need a strong pace. That is my worry here with Universal and Ektihaam the likely pace angles, but I don't think they will go very fast, so one of those two may be able to quicken off the front and steadily blunt Mount Athos's finishing kick. Ektihaam really impressed a lot of people with the way he extended away here last time and must go close again. Dandino is the one I like at a bigger price for Frankie Dettori. He is 1-1 at Ascot and 1-1 on the All Weather too, which is key on a sand based track like this one, and the race could unfold to suit him should he track the pace.

3.45 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (6f - 18 run)

Mince just beating Soul here last October

A very competitive renewal of this race, which just lacks Black Caviar who scrambled over the line to win this last year for Australia. The Aussies are represented again with Havelock and Sea Siren, the latter being the best hope under Ryan Moore. I find it difficult to weigh up the Australian form so I tend to stick to form I am familiar with. The Irish have chances with Dandy Boy, who won the Wokingham on this day last year for David Marnane, and Gordon Lord Byron, a huge improver last term.
Society Rock is very solid but he isn't a betting proposition at 10/3 considering he can miss the break (as he did in this race last year), and needs plenty of cover. I think the value lies in the picture above, Mince and Soul. Mince was something of a flop when being beaten at odds on at Windsor last time out, but this race and track will suit much better this time, so much so that she is the current six furlong record holder on this track. She will have improved since then and I think she must go close. Soul has a good record fresh and a good record at this course as well. The Godolphin horses in big fields have ran pretty well all week and I think he is overpriced.

4.25 The Wokingham (6f - 28 run)

Palace Moon has a lot of things in his favour

This is a very tricky race to weigh up and I've narrowed it down to four against the rest of the field. Palace Moon is the first one I want to touch on for Jimmy Quinn. He has ran in this corresponding race twice before, a close 3rd in 2010 and 8th last year, hitting the front a bit too soon before fading. However, he is 4lbs below the mark he ran off last year and ran a lovely comeback race last time out. He is drawn 1. Elusivity is the second one I like for David O'Meara and Tom Queally. He could do with rain but should enjoy having a big field to sit in and could easily figure from Stall 30. Glass Office is the one I am sweetest on for Jim Crowley. He is only a three year old so therefore receives an allowance of 7lbs. His last run though was the huge eye catcher, attempting to give Professor 5lbs in a Listed race at Haydock and was only beaten a length and a half. He is a very good all weather horse and with the sand based soil here at Ascot proving another big plus. He is drawn 19 so can choose which way he wants to go. Finally Bapak Chinta is a huge price if he can return to the form of his Royal Ascot win last year in the Norfolk Stakes. He shaped a little better last time out and a tiny each way bet would be advised from stall 16.

5.00 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (1m4f - 19 run)

Caravan Rolls On wins at Ascot winning very smartly

I'm going to keep this short as you could go round and round in circles. If Caravan Rolls On gets some luck from Stall 17, he will run a huge race as he is obviously well handicapped off a mark of 95. Highland Castle is a safer option and should figure as well.

5.35 Queen Alexandra Stakes (2m6f - 20 run)

Stopped Out over hurdles - but could run a huge race here

Another tricky end to the card, and the meeting. Shahwardi has a big chance to give Frankie Dettori a winner after finishing second in this race last year behind Simenon, and there is no Simenon in the race this time around. There are a couple of horses I think could go well at prices, but they are both better known for their exploits on the jumps. Stopped Out won in good style from the front at Sandown on the final day of the 2012/13 season in April, and ran well on ground that didn't suit on Flat debut at Thirsk behind Bold Sniper, placed here earlier on this week, and the fourth Mister Pagan has won since. He needs to lead though and Stall 20 makes that tricky, but could run well each way. I'd give a very small chance to American Spin as well who has ran well in this before and is a very big price at 66/1.

Fingers crossed I can find a few winners to end with.
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Enjoy the racing,
Will

Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview

As the meeting starts to draw to a close, the amount of runners certainly doesn't, with an average field of around 17 on this day, including the 29 runner Buckingham Palace Stakes to end the card which looks fiercely tough. After a very good Day 2 on the blog, let's hope I can find a few more.

2.30 - Albany Stakes (6f - 19 run)

Sandiva looks like a machine

A race that certainly has a lot of exciting fillies in it, headed by Sandiva who won with plenty of ease at Naas last time out, beating a good field with plenty in hand, including Jim Bolger's Heart Focus who reopposes again. She has been purchased out of Middleham Park since that win, and Frankie Dettori rides, but I don't see either as negatives and I think she will win. Behind her, Lucky Kristale could run well for George Margarson after wins at Newmarket and Yarmouth so far. She shows plenty of speed and should be competitive. Kiyoshi won nicely at Goodwood last time and has to be respected too. However, the each way value could lie with Race Hunter, who won a small maiden very easily on debut and has a high draw, an American pedigree and Johnny Murtagh aboard.

3.05 - King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f - 8 run)

Battle Of Marengo looks a good thing

I think this Group 2 lacks depth and looks to be Battle Of Marengo's to lose. I thought he ran a belter in the Derby after having to go for home plenty soon enough after Dawn Approach pulled his way to the front down the hill to Tattenham Corner. This is nothing like the quality of the Derby and I fully expect Battle Of Marengo to get back to winning ways, with Havana Beat the one to chase him home.

3.45 Coronation Stakes (1m - 17 run)

I can't wait to see how Viztoria gets on

My personal race of the week, an absolute screamer for three year old fillies. It has bought together Just The Judge and Sky Lantern who are taking each other on once again. Sky Lantern was on top, albeit narrowly, at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas when the pair took each other on first time around, but Just The Judge has won the Irish equivalent since then. Both fillies are very good, but this time they go around a bend together so it'll be amazing to see which one comes out on top. There are plenty of fillies who ran behind Just The Judge who reoppose, Rehn's Nest (2nd), Big Break (4th), Mizzava (5th), Maureen (6th), Snow Queen (10th) and Masarah (15th). I think Mizzava is overpriced but suspect she will probably come up short. Big Break was one who caught the eye in that race, but her value has gone completely.
Pavlosk has been supplemented for this race after readily destroying a small field in a Listed race at York, but this is a completely different test and I'd be a bit surprised if she was quite good enough to win. The one I like a lot is Viztoria, a filly who I have followed ever since her Listed race win at The Curragh last year, where she beat Snow Queen by seven and a half lengths. She was beaten in France but after a very smooth win at the start of this season, a rise in class was the next step. The ground is a bit of a worry, but she looks speedy enough and I think she will run a huge race. Trainer Eddie Lynam says that she "could be the best he's trained".

4.25 Wolferton Handicap (1m2f - 16 run)

Bana Wu has been knocking at the door in better company

This is a very trappy handicap that I'm struggling to work out, so small stakes would be advised on Forgotten Voice, a former Hunt Cup winner who needs fast ground and a good gallop to show his best, and Bana Wu. This filly has been running well for a long while now at Listed and Group 3 level, so back in a handicap off a mark of 98 could be the time to catch her. The worry would be the draw but I think she will go well.

5.00 Queen's Vase (In memory of Sir Henry Cecil) (2m - 18 run)

Hoping for a big run by Mister Impatience

This looks for a race where I can find plenty of each way value. My main hope is Mister Impatience, who I flagged up as a Dark Horse to follow on this blog in March. I have one negative and two big positives for this race which are as follows. The negative is ground as I think he is best with cut in the ground, however he should stay the two miles no problem and Mark Johnston has a great record in this race. I think the 12/1 available is worth a go each way. Nearly Caught could run well if showing improvement from his debut Windsor win, as could Chocala if he took to the quicker ground.

5.35 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f - 28 run)

Campanology could give Johnny Murtagh another winner

A really good handicap which I think gives us two or three strong selections. Campanology is the one I fancy for Johnny Murtagh after a hugely eye catching run last time out at The Curragh. He has past experience in big field handicaps and I think he will go very close. Emilio Largo is another horse that was a big eye catcher last time out on his first start for James Fanshawe. He was ninth in this race last year, not getting the clearest of runs, and I think he will be much closer. I saw that Ralph Beckett selected Redvers as his banker of the week in the Daily Telegraph last week, which I saw as significant because he used to train this gelding. He has a very good record at Ascot and in big fields, so must figure for George Baker.

Fingers crossed for a bit more luck on a tricky Day 4.

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Enjoy,
Will

Royal Ascot Day 2 Preview

An amazing first day of Royal Ascot 2013 where Dawn Approach and Toronado bounced right back to their best to provide a pulsating finish to the St James's Palace Stakes. Hopefully Day 2 will be as gripping and exciting.

2.30: Jersey Stakes (7f - 21 run)

Garswood back to his best?

This is a race that I'm not too keen on and I don't have a strong opinion. There are a few horses that were down the field in the Guineas and their connections taking the view that they didn't stay, which is certainly the case with Garswood I think. He looked very good when winning at Newmarket's Craven meeting and could never get very competitive in the Guineas itself. I think Music Master and Jammy Guest will outrun their respective prices too but as I say, I don't have a strong view.

3.05: Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Windsor Forest) (1m - 10 run)

Duntle to win at Royal Ascot again?

A really top class event for Fillies and Mares. Dank has a very progressive profile and could provide Ryan Moore yet another Ascot winner. I will oppose her tentatively in favour for Duntle, who won at this meeting last year in the Sandringham Handicap. David Wachman is one of the shrewdist trainers from across the Irish Sea and I think she may the one here. There would not be a dry eye in the house if Lady Cecil could win with Chigun under Tom Queally. Thistle Bird is another improver as well so a really good race in prospect. Interestingly the top four in the market all have a course and distance win, a rarity for the meeting I would think.

3.45: Prince of Wales's Stakes (1m2f - 11 run)

Al Kazeem to beat Camelot again? I think so

Some people say this is the race of the week, and I wouldn't disagree with them. In a preview on Sunday at home, I put up Camelot as my lay of the week, and I see no reason to change. He was nearly a Triple Crown winner last year, but Main Sequence has not helped the form at all this year, being beaten by Ektihaam; who runs in the Hardwicke on Saturday, and Mukhadram who runs in this race again. Camelot has been beaten as well this season, by Al Kazeem, who is a very worthy favourite in this for me. He is still on an upward curve and has been underrated to date. The Fugue gets a fillies allowance and is a high class filly which every chance after her super smooth Nassau Stakes victory last year. French challenger Maxios will go close too after a Grade 1 win last time out at Longchamp beating Planteur. Afsare could figure too - a super race in prospect and one probably to sit back and enjoy.

4.25: Royal Hunt Cup (1m - 30 run)

Stirring Ballad has been punted off the boards

A fiercely competitive cavalry charge down the straight mile at Ascot. Stirring Ballad has been the object of a strong gamble after some glowing gallop reports from trainer Andrew Balding, and with an added bonus of Richard Hughes being on his back, I think she has every chance and must go pretty close. The doubt would be the big field intimidating her a little bit. Educate is rock solid for Jamie Spencer and must go close. Prince of Johanne is a past winner of this race and has to be feared despite him being a seven year old now. The two I like in particular are David Livingston and Winter's Night. David Livingston is another Mike De Kock runner and he sounded quietly confident last week. He used to be trained by Aiden O'Brien and is a Group 2 winner at his peak, so a mark of 102 could look quite leniant on old form. Winter's Night is a similar story, but I like her even more as she has really good form fresh and at Ascot, with two ready wins here in May and a place in the Sandringham handicap at this meeting two years ago. A mark of 97 and a very good 5lb claimer to assist her, I think she could go well.

5.00: Queen Mary Stakes (5f - 24 run)

Rizeena wins well at Sandown

A fascinating renewal of this contest for very speedy fillies. Beldale Memory probably sets the standard after a nice win at York last time out, but she is against some very unexposed rivals here. I think Rizeena is the one here for Clive Brittain after a very impressive win at Sandown last time out, beating plenty of previous winners. She had previously won at this venue so also has that in her favour in this. Reroute won very nicely at York on Friday, but this is a big step up and I'm slightly worried that she is turning out again so quickly. I think Oriel is a terrible price, as she is one of only two runners not to have won a race yet, and she has finished behind some of these, including Alutiq who could run well, Fire Blaze, another contender and Rizeena. I was impressed with Kaiulani at Leicester and she is another I am looking forward to alongside One Chance, who is a nice horse for a small yard to take to this big race. On that thread, Baytown Kestrel would prove a great story should this £400 purchase win this £56,000 pot for Phil McEntee.

5.35: Sandringham Handicap (1m - 26 run)

Woodland Aria - A handicap good thing?

A very tricky race that I can't really find an angle in. Woodland Aria would seem to be the one who is on the steepest upward curve for John Gosden and could be very well treated on the evidence on the table. I am willing to give Nargys another go after a terrible run in the Nell Gwyn for a yard that I respect hugely.

In summary, a day to go steady, but I do think Winter's Night in the Hunt Cup and Rizeena are my best bets.

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Enjoy the racing,
Will

Royal Ascot Day 1 Preview

All of a sudden the best 5 days of the Flat season are upon us. It doesn't seem that long ago since we were talking about "Who's going to win the Guineas?", and now the question being asked is "Which piece of Guineas form is the strongest?". That is most certainly the theme of Day 1 with a scintilating St James's Palace Stakes amongst the features.
In this preview I will cover every race and hopefully try and find a few winners!


2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes (1m - 13 run)

Animal Kingdom - Can he do it?

What a way to start the meeting with many people's banker of the week Animal Kingdom taking on the Europeans in an intriguing race. There is no doubting his achievments so far for sure, a Kentucky Derby winner and most recently a Dubai World Cup winner in March. He has racked up more prize money in Sterling than is available at the whole of this meeting, which is astonishing. However, many think he is vulnerable and I'm in that band I think. A straight mile in England is vastly different to anything he's ever faced before and that could be his downfall. The backers will say he is just too good for these and will be able to cope with conditions. I wouldn't be backing or laying him at odds on as there are so many unknown factors that could swing either way. I think the bet in the race is Trade Storm for David Simcock and Jamie Spencer. Jamie wasn't at his finest when he was fourth last time out in Meydan behind Sajjhaa but had previously won two more races in Dubai. He will be held up here behind a likely strong pace and should be able to figure at a double figure price. Declaration of War is a very short price considering his flop in the Lockinge at Newbury where he was behind two of today's rivals. Elusive Kate should run well with the fillies allowance but this is her seasonal debut and she may find life slightly tougher.

3.05 King Stand Stakes (5f - 19 run)

Another big day in the sun for Sole Power?

A very good looking King's Stand Stakes which will be run in about a minute, so it'll be fast and furious. Lots of pace angles here with the likes of Bungle Inthejungle, Reckless Abandon, Hoyam and Heeraat all liking to get on with it, but they are all drawn middle to high (stands side). Reckless Abandon will be most likely of those to be involved in the latter stages, but it is very hard for a three year old to win a race such as this despite the weight for age allowance. Shea Shea is the short priced favourite after some awesome displays in Dubai, including breaking the track record when winning the Al Quoz Sprint on World Cup night. However, he is very short on his English debut and he could be drawn on the wrong side as well. Shamexpress is yet another Australian raider to try his hand at Royal Ascot sprints following on from Takeover Target, Choisir and Black Caviar. I do think that there are two solid each way bets, Sole Power and Pearl Secret. Both are drawn high and have a naturally high cruising speed. Sole Power has a proven record in Grade 1's and is very consistent. If there is lots of pace on, he will definitely be bang there come the end of the race. Pearl Secret has been a horse I've eagerly waited for since he ran in the Nunthorpe last summer. He is a big bold chestnut with a really exciting year in front of him. Trainer David Barron sticks to his statement last season where he said that this "could be the best he's trained". Medician Man and Swiss Spirit could also go well but I'll stick to Sole Power and Pearl Secret.

3.45 St James's Palace Stakes (1m - 9 run)

Can Magician cast a spell on his rivals?

Three words, what a race. Dawn Approach vs Toronado round 2, plus Magician, Mars and Glory Awaits. Mouthwatering isn't it? 
Dawn Approach was so visually disappointing at Epsom in the Derby, that everyone has to have a few reservations about him reappearing only 17 days afterwards, especially as trainer Jim Bolger said straight after the race they'd go "easy on him for a while". It appears as though he has been flying at home for them to consider running here, so that must be a positive. I'm unsure and for that reason alone, can't be taking 5/4 about him. Toronado however I think is the value. He was alongside Dawn Approach travelling equally as well with two furlongs to run before fading and finshing "legless tired" at the end according to Richard Hughes who says he is back to his best at home. At 7/2, I think he could be worth a small win bet. Magician was awesome in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh and looks to hold a big chance as well. Stablemate Mars is a horse I fancy for the St Leger, and I'm surprised to see him drop half a mile back in trip. Glory Awaits can't be underestimated but I suspect he only has small place claims.

4.25 Coventry Stakes (6f - 16 run)

Stubbs winning well at Naas

This race last year was won by Dawn Approach, who won the Guineas so it could be the first big trial for next Spring. Stubbs is the favourite for Aiden and Joseph O'Brien and looks to be a really exciting horse for sure. The Coolmore operation have a couple of others with chances in the shape of Sir John Hawkins and War Command. I don't think there is a bet for me in this race, maybe a small each way tickle on Southwell winner Dubawi Fun, who quickened away nicely.

5.00 Ascot Stakes (2m4f - 20 run)

Will George be smiling after this?

A long distance handicap which tests both jockey and horse to the max. Junior is a past winner of this race and Tony Hamilton will be trying to send him from the front to make every single yard again. Well Sharp was a very easy winner in pouring rain at York last time and will be feared by all here if turning up in the same sort of form. Midnight Oil is the mount of Richard Hughes for the Willie Mullins yard, who won this last year with Simenon. He would have a chance too on his best form. I like two in this race, Lieutenant Miller but more so Apache. Lieutenant Miller won nicely at Doncaster last time out and is progressing steadily with every run. If he stays the trip here, a big run will be guaranteed as trainer Nicky Henderson has won this before with Veiled. The other I mentioned, Apache, is a horse I've been following eagerly since he's moved to Jane Chapple Hyam because I think there is big handicaps in this gelding. He ran a really eye catching race last time at Haydock, staying on steadily in the home straight. The trip is the big question mark but you have to give it a go and at 33/1, I will be backing him.

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f - 28 run)

Ogermeister winning at Belmont Park

A very competitive race in which I don't have a strong view. Ogermeister represents Wesley Ward who has had winners here before. I quite like Anticipated who won here last time out and represents Hannon and Hughes. If you nailed me to one though, it'd be Andhesontherun for Roger Varian, who I was taken with on debut at Leicester before running into a good one at Sandown last time out.

Any feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Enjoy the wonderful action.
Will