Last weekend, I was in Northumberland helping to promote and sell idiosyncratic beer (www.fromthenotebook.co.uk) and this week I'll be watching two classics at the most idiosyncratic Flat track in Britain at Epsom, and it is the two days I look forward to most in the Flat calendar. It has been a very lucky meeting for me over the years, and many of you will know Stone Of Folca was a huge winner for me at last year's meeting at 50/1 in the Dash. Hopefully I will try and eek out some more gems for this meeting in 2013.
FRIDAY:
I have to say that Friday provides us with less concrete selections than Saturday. I'll start with the big one, the Oaks. I think everyone who saw Secret Gesture win at Lingfield was impressed, but what did she beat? She couldn't have done it any easier but the previous question will always be a cloud over her until she runs tomorrow. I don't think she represents any value but I thoroughly respect her as a very live contender. Moth is a huge threat but she has been beaten in three of four starts, an odd profile for an O'Brien classic contender. She was also quite green in the Guineas. Liber Nauticus isn't too disimilar in the sense that she won a good class race with plenty in hand. She is a huge filly and Sir Michael Stoute is having a remarkable start to the season but I will be opposing her here. This race in recent times has thrown up a few left field winners including Look Here and last year's winner Was. I like Banoffee a lot after her smooth Chester win despite an interrupted passage. Kieren Fallon gave her a glowing report afterwards and it is rare for Fallon to get so animated about a horse with as little experience as she has. She should handle the track and will definitely stay. I think Madame Defarge will reverse the form with Talent from Newmarket and Michael Bell's other runner, The Lark, would be worth a few pennies each way. She needed the run at Newbury and has 'come on considerably' according to her trainer. Her dam is a half sister to the brilliant Sariska who won this race and could outrun her odds.
The other race I like for angles is the Investec Mile handicap at 3.20. I am particularly interested to see how Karam Albaari runs for John Jenkins. He has only won once which was on debut at Yarmouth but recently made a comeback from injury at the same course three and a half weeks ago staying on late in the day over seven furlongs. I don't think he's one to go mad on, but he could easily run better than around 20/1 indicates. Both Hefner and Benzanno were eyecatchers at Chester, and the latter has good course form meaning they both have a part to play.
SATURDAY:
Once again, we will begin with a look at the Classic on Saturday, the Derby. Dawn Approach is a very worthy favourite and I fully respect his chances as I think he is very good indeed. There are, however, concerns. The ground, trip and track all being factors that could go against him. Battle Of Marengo is the head of the busy Coolmore battalion and is still unbeaten. However, he has to improve on all known form and I would rather swerve him. I think another Aiden O'Brien runner is the best value in the race, and that's Mars for champion jockey Richard Hughes. He seems to be the forgotten horse in the build up, which surprises me after the pre-Guineas hype. He actually ran a very good race in the Guineas to be sixth on his second start on a racecourse. He is by Galileo so should stay the mile and a half no problem and at 14/1 I'm willing to give him a chance. I also have a Dark horse running in the shape of Mirsaale for James Tate. I think he is a bit big at 100/1 considering he is the only one in the race with a course win, and I really fancy him to beat Libertarian in a match bet as well.
As for the Dash at 3.15, the race which Stone Of Folca won for me last year, I think I may have found the solution again with a couple of runners. Confessional is my first choice for Tim Easterby. He has been unlucky in this race for the past two years and providing he gets a clear passage and I think he's a fair bet at 16/1. Taajub is the other one I quite like for Peter Crate. He has a decent course record without winning, but more importantly broke fast and got across from a low draw, which he has on Saturday in stall 4. He worth a poke at 25/1.
The undercard is high in quality, especially the Coronation Cup which should go to St Nicholas Abbey for the third year running. I think John Biscuit is one to watch in the 4.50 as well, with trainer Andrew Balding having a good record in handicaps at this meeting.
I hope you have enjoyed reading the preview and hopefully a few winners will come out of it.
Any feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12.
Enjoy the racing,
Will
Thursday 30 May 2013
Wednesday 15 May 2013
York Dante Meeting Day 1 Selections
On a very wet Tuesday afternoon, York plays host to the start of three great days of Flat racing, with a high class Oaks trial today and a Derby trial tomorrow, plus fiercely competitive handicaps. Best advice would be to watch the latest going reports like a hawk as the rain is still falling up there as I write. I would expect something like Good to Soft, Soft in places by the end of play today. In this preview, I look ahead to the first four races on today's card.
1.45 - Infinity Tyres Handicap (1m2f):
A tricky opener with both First Mohican and Lahaag likely to figure at the head of the market. Both have similar profiles in that they improved greatly last season and are from yards who historically do well with this type of horse. Of the pair, I would probably favour First Mohican as he is proven over this trip and on the likely soft going. If you wanted an each way dabble at double figure odds, you could do worse than back Silvery Moon under Ted Durcan. He has a really decent record when running on ground with some dig in, and last year he improved plenty from his first run to his second run of the season. He is now a 1lb lower than his last winning mark which would help even more.
2.15 - Infinity Ecosis Tyres Handicap - (6f):
Another wide open race, which annoyingly is down to three places with a couple of non runners. At first glance, Louis The Pious screams out as an improver on only his third start for David O'Meara. He ran a great race over this course and distance on soft ground in October and has to be feared by all. Nocturn is a rapidly improving colt who should run with plenty of credit here. I would split stakes each way in this with Compton and Bapak Chinta. Compton firstly is only having his second start for Robert Cowell, a yard I really respect with older sprinters. He ran well enough to a point on seasonal debut and acts well in soft ground. Willie Twiston Davies has ridden him once before to be a very close fourth to Jack Dexter on Champions Day last year and he should go close. Bapak Chinta is risky, but he is a Group 2 winner as a youngster and hasn't been over-raced. The handicapper has given him a chance and 33/1 is over the top.
2.45 - Musidora Stakes - (1m2f):
A race that revolves around Liber Nauticus and whether the hype surrounding her is justified. She may be a world beater, but at this stage, she's won a Goodwood maiden beating some fair horses nicely. She has a mark of 86 but is odds on for a Group 3, that is very short. The handicapper has Indigo Lady on a mark of 104, a full 18lbs more than the odds on favourite, and she is 13/2. That in itself represents value. I also think Hollowina could run very well as she is race fit after a luckless passage at Chester, has won with lots of juice in the ground before and is overpriced at 14/1. Woodland Aria is a complete unknown after a smooth Wolverhampton maiden win so she would be a threat.
3.15 - Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes - (6f):
What a race! This is a Group 1 in everything but name. Mince deserves to be right at the head of the market after a very productive year last term for Roger Charlton. However, this is her toughest test to date and she may have to find another couple of pounds to win this. Another filly in the line up is Tickled Pink for Sir Henry Cecil, who won the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket last time in good style. She got things her own way there and I would be a little surprised if there weren't a couple too strong in the closing stages for her. I think Society Rock and Gordon Lord Byron are worth a look, but have very tough tasks with their respective Grade 1 penalties. I do think Maarek though is the one to beat for Paul Hanagan. He loves soft ground and this looks a very suitable opportunity for him to at least be in the frame. If it's a double figure price you are looking for, then Jack Dexter is the way to go. He is improving and needs to have soft in the going description somewhere. The only slight worry would be that Graham Lee didn't pick him over Hawkeyethenoo.
I hope you have enjoyed this preview. If you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Enjoy the racing,
Will
1.45 - Infinity Tyres Handicap (1m2f):
A tricky opener with both First Mohican and Lahaag likely to figure at the head of the market. Both have similar profiles in that they improved greatly last season and are from yards who historically do well with this type of horse. Of the pair, I would probably favour First Mohican as he is proven over this trip and on the likely soft going. If you wanted an each way dabble at double figure odds, you could do worse than back Silvery Moon under Ted Durcan. He has a really decent record when running on ground with some dig in, and last year he improved plenty from his first run to his second run of the season. He is now a 1lb lower than his last winning mark which would help even more.
2.15 - Infinity Ecosis Tyres Handicap - (6f):
Another wide open race, which annoyingly is down to three places with a couple of non runners. At first glance, Louis The Pious screams out as an improver on only his third start for David O'Meara. He ran a great race over this course and distance on soft ground in October and has to be feared by all. Nocturn is a rapidly improving colt who should run with plenty of credit here. I would split stakes each way in this with Compton and Bapak Chinta. Compton firstly is only having his second start for Robert Cowell, a yard I really respect with older sprinters. He ran well enough to a point on seasonal debut and acts well in soft ground. Willie Twiston Davies has ridden him once before to be a very close fourth to Jack Dexter on Champions Day last year and he should go close. Bapak Chinta is risky, but he is a Group 2 winner as a youngster and hasn't been over-raced. The handicapper has given him a chance and 33/1 is over the top.
2.45 - Musidora Stakes - (1m2f):
A race that revolves around Liber Nauticus and whether the hype surrounding her is justified. She may be a world beater, but at this stage, she's won a Goodwood maiden beating some fair horses nicely. She has a mark of 86 but is odds on for a Group 3, that is very short. The handicapper has Indigo Lady on a mark of 104, a full 18lbs more than the odds on favourite, and she is 13/2. That in itself represents value. I also think Hollowina could run very well as she is race fit after a luckless passage at Chester, has won with lots of juice in the ground before and is overpriced at 14/1. Woodland Aria is a complete unknown after a smooth Wolverhampton maiden win so she would be a threat.
3.15 - Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes - (6f):
What a race! This is a Group 1 in everything but name. Mince deserves to be right at the head of the market after a very productive year last term for Roger Charlton. However, this is her toughest test to date and she may have to find another couple of pounds to win this. Another filly in the line up is Tickled Pink for Sir Henry Cecil, who won the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket last time in good style. She got things her own way there and I would be a little surprised if there weren't a couple too strong in the closing stages for her. I think Society Rock and Gordon Lord Byron are worth a look, but have very tough tasks with their respective Grade 1 penalties. I do think Maarek though is the one to beat for Paul Hanagan. He loves soft ground and this looks a very suitable opportunity for him to at least be in the frame. If it's a double figure price you are looking for, then Jack Dexter is the way to go. He is improving and needs to have soft in the going description somewhere. The only slight worry would be that Graham Lee didn't pick him over Hawkeyethenoo.
I hope you have enjoyed this preview. If you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Enjoy the racing,
Will
Tuesday 7 May 2013
Chester Preview 08/05/13
Chester begin their prestigious May meeting tomorrow with the Chester Cup the feature on Day 1. In terms of declarations, there is a fantastic turnout of entries making for some very competitive races indeed, especially in the handicaps. In this preview, I will look at each race and hopefully find as many winners as possible.
1.45 - Manor House Stables Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (5f 16y - 15 run)
What a start to the meeting with fifteen two year olds flying around the Roodee. Last year, it was won by All Fur Coat from the Jo Hughes yard, and she has Marilyn Marquessa in the line up this time under Paul Hanagan. The key stat for this race is the stall the last 10 winners have started from, in chronological order: 1,1,1,5,3,2,5,5,2,4.
This tells us that a low draw is a huge advantage. The top three in the racecard, and arguably the ones with the best form, Split Rock, Steventon Star and One Boy are drawn 14, 13 and 15 respectively, a near impossible mission. Therefore, I have to reluctantly rule these out. I think I have narrowed this down to two, who are drawn 5 and 8. They are Lilo Lil and Quatuor. Lilo Lil fits the profile of a winner of this, a very speedy and precocious two year old who has the 'King of Chester' on board Franny Norton. Quatuor is trained by Tom Dascombe, who's stable sponser this race. She showed plenty of zip when winning at Windsor last time out and could easily be better than what we have seen to date.
2.15 Wetherbys Bank Cheshire Oaks (1m3f79y - 11 run)
Draw isn't as important this time over this longer trip but a clean break is always a positive. It is an intriguing race with a couple of Irish runners from shrewd yards in Keeping from Ger Lyons and Salhooda from the Dermot Weld stable. Both have chances, but I think Salhooda could do with plenty of rain to enhance her chances. Charlie Hills has two runners in the shape of Premium and Reyaadah. The latter is taking a big rise in trip whereas Premium has only won a Wolverhampton maiden so far so is very difficult to gauge what we have on our hands with this particular filly. I will plump for The Lark though for Michael Bell. She won a Doncaster maiden last back end in good style, staying on strongly at the death to win going away. She has to improve, but she is owned by Lady Bamford who had incredible success with Sariska a few years ago and this filly might be just as good in time.
2.45 Stan James Chester Cup (2m2f 147y - 17 run)
A very good race with the popular dual purpose performer Countrywide Flame the likely favourite. He has a heart as big as a lion and has plenty in his favour in this race as well, with a low draw in stall 4, a lovely racing weight of eight stone nine pounds and must go very close indeed. There are a few familiar names to jumps fans as well with Jonjo O'Neill, Willie Mullins, Phillip Hobbs, David Pipe and Donald McCain with runners. Jonjo runs Tominator, a horse who never looked a natural over hurdles, was narrowly behind Countrywide Flame in the Cesarewitch last season and will be thereabouts once more. The McCain duo could figure, last years winner Ile De Re but more so Thimaar, who has flopped badly over hurdles but this former Queen's Prize winner could be perked up by a combination of blinkers, a good draw, this style of track and Graham Lee sat on his back. The final one I like is Theology for Paul Hanagan. He has only won once but that was in May and also placed in a Listed race behind Times Up in this corresponding month too. He has ran once at Chester before, when finishing third carrying top weight in a Listed handicap after meeting trouble in running. He's had one run since a long layoff which was full of promise at Kempton and at 25/1, must be worth a small each way interest.
3.15 Stellar Group Handicap (5f 16y - 13 run)
A very tricky race in which it could pay to stick to Last Sovereign, who has been unlucky not to get his head in front in his last two starts. He is a course winner, has stall 1 and Franny Norton rides which are all big positives and a small stakes bet would be advised.
3.50 Boodles Diamond Maiden Stakes (1m2f 75y - 12 run)
A good level maiden which includes one of my Dark Horses Number One London. I am slightly surprised to see him lining up in a maiden after recieving his handicap mark, which I think is a touch leniant at 82. However, he has had a run this season so will be more race fit than some and I'm sure he won't be far away at the business end. In terms of dangers, Space Ship has the most form in the book, but I don't think he has many gears and on a track like this, may struggle. Russian Realm ran a debut full of promise at Sandown and will have strengthened up over the winter, but the issue is the wide draw.
The 4.25 and 5.00 look tricky, but Masamah and Gabrial The Master are the two tentative votes in those races.
I hope you have found this informative and hopefully a few winners are mixed in.
Any feedback? Either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.
Enjoy,
Will
1.45 - Manor House Stables Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (5f 16y - 15 run)
What a start to the meeting with fifteen two year olds flying around the Roodee. Last year, it was won by All Fur Coat from the Jo Hughes yard, and she has Marilyn Marquessa in the line up this time under Paul Hanagan. The key stat for this race is the stall the last 10 winners have started from, in chronological order: 1,1,1,5,3,2,5,5,2,4.
This tells us that a low draw is a huge advantage. The top three in the racecard, and arguably the ones with the best form, Split Rock, Steventon Star and One Boy are drawn 14, 13 and 15 respectively, a near impossible mission. Therefore, I have to reluctantly rule these out. I think I have narrowed this down to two, who are drawn 5 and 8. They are Lilo Lil and Quatuor. Lilo Lil fits the profile of a winner of this, a very speedy and precocious two year old who has the 'King of Chester' on board Franny Norton. Quatuor is trained by Tom Dascombe, who's stable sponser this race. She showed plenty of zip when winning at Windsor last time out and could easily be better than what we have seen to date.
2.15 Wetherbys Bank Cheshire Oaks (1m3f79y - 11 run)
Draw isn't as important this time over this longer trip but a clean break is always a positive. It is an intriguing race with a couple of Irish runners from shrewd yards in Keeping from Ger Lyons and Salhooda from the Dermot Weld stable. Both have chances, but I think Salhooda could do with plenty of rain to enhance her chances. Charlie Hills has two runners in the shape of Premium and Reyaadah. The latter is taking a big rise in trip whereas Premium has only won a Wolverhampton maiden so far so is very difficult to gauge what we have on our hands with this particular filly. I will plump for The Lark though for Michael Bell. She won a Doncaster maiden last back end in good style, staying on strongly at the death to win going away. She has to improve, but she is owned by Lady Bamford who had incredible success with Sariska a few years ago and this filly might be just as good in time.
2.45 Stan James Chester Cup (2m2f 147y - 17 run)
A very good race with the popular dual purpose performer Countrywide Flame the likely favourite. He has a heart as big as a lion and has plenty in his favour in this race as well, with a low draw in stall 4, a lovely racing weight of eight stone nine pounds and must go very close indeed. There are a few familiar names to jumps fans as well with Jonjo O'Neill, Willie Mullins, Phillip Hobbs, David Pipe and Donald McCain with runners. Jonjo runs Tominator, a horse who never looked a natural over hurdles, was narrowly behind Countrywide Flame in the Cesarewitch last season and will be thereabouts once more. The McCain duo could figure, last years winner Ile De Re but more so Thimaar, who has flopped badly over hurdles but this former Queen's Prize winner could be perked up by a combination of blinkers, a good draw, this style of track and Graham Lee sat on his back. The final one I like is Theology for Paul Hanagan. He has only won once but that was in May and also placed in a Listed race behind Times Up in this corresponding month too. He has ran once at Chester before, when finishing third carrying top weight in a Listed handicap after meeting trouble in running. He's had one run since a long layoff which was full of promise at Kempton and at 25/1, must be worth a small each way interest.
3.15 Stellar Group Handicap (5f 16y - 13 run)
A very tricky race in which it could pay to stick to Last Sovereign, who has been unlucky not to get his head in front in his last two starts. He is a course winner, has stall 1 and Franny Norton rides which are all big positives and a small stakes bet would be advised.
3.50 Boodles Diamond Maiden Stakes (1m2f 75y - 12 run)
A good level maiden which includes one of my Dark Horses Number One London. I am slightly surprised to see him lining up in a maiden after recieving his handicap mark, which I think is a touch leniant at 82. However, he has had a run this season so will be more race fit than some and I'm sure he won't be far away at the business end. In terms of dangers, Space Ship has the most form in the book, but I don't think he has many gears and on a track like this, may struggle. Russian Realm ran a debut full of promise at Sandown and will have strengthened up over the winter, but the issue is the wide draw.
The 4.25 and 5.00 look tricky, but Masamah and Gabrial The Master are the two tentative votes in those races.
I hope you have found this informative and hopefully a few winners are mixed in.
Any feedback? Either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.
Enjoy,
Will
Friday 3 May 2013
Uttoxeter & Newmarket Previews
The first classics of the season come up on Saturday at Newmarket they both promise to be great races. But for me and many racing tweeters, Uttoxeter is the place to be on Saturday with another Uttoxeter Twitterati day including a sponsered novice handicap chase. Uttoxeter is the focus of the preview but firstly a little summary of both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas.
2000 Guineas Preview:
Many people are treating Saturday's first Classic as a face off between Dawn Approach and Toronado, two unbeaten colts with 10 wins between them, 6-4 in Dawn Approach's favour. To be fair, I agree with the majority and more than likely the winner will come from one of these two. Dawn Approach for me would be the one I favour. He oozes class and switches off very early in his races and doesn't win by a big margin, therefore not showing a cap on his ability quite yet. He handles the dip adequately without making much ground but I think he may be a little too classy. Toronado is a very worthy opponent and won the Craven nicely, but historically not many win both the Craven and the Guineas, plus Richard Hughes said after the Champagne Stakes he was a 'Derby Horse'.
Of the others, Mars is a talking horse and could be anything. You would be surprised if Garswood was good enough to win it but could run a place. Cristiforo Colombo has cheek-pieces on and has a fair bit to find with Dawn Approach from the Coventry and hasn't run beyond six furlongs. I like George Vancouver each way. He's a Group 1 winner in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at the back end of last year over a mile so has no stamina worries. Aiden O'Brien is a master of getting them ready for the big day and I think he could be a bit of value.
1000 Guineas Preview:
Hot Snap was a taking winner of the Nell Gwyn despite racing with greeness again, showed a nice turn of foot to catch Sky Lantern and draw away. She has been given a 35lb rise in the handicap for that success. Sky Lantern had to give her 3lbs in the Nell Gwyn and was drawn in the middle of the track which was a negative in the end. I think Hot Snap is plenty short enough in comparison to Sky Lantern and the latter could easily turn the form around. Just The Judge, What A Name and Maureen all demand plenty of respect in a good renewal. I was impressed with Moth last time, and it is telling that Aiden O'Brien supplemented her for this on the back of that win at The Curragh. In a tough race, I'll take Moth and Sky Lantern against the field.
UTTOXETER PREVIEW:
1.55 - 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (2m - 16 run)
A fiercely competitive opener setting the tone for the rest of the card for sure. What I would say however is there is plenty of dead wood in it and a shortlist of about five can be made quite quickly. The safest one for placepot purposes would be Oyster Shell on the back of a very narrow defeat last time for the flying Henry Daly yard. I think Picture Post has quirks and I'll be avoiding him. The one I do quite like is Sleeping City for Victor Dartnall, a yard who always do well here. He does have a few jumping problems, including when falling at the last when leading Swing Bowler last March. Last time out was a return to his best before he stumbled badly on the turn for home and was pulled up. If he brings his A game, he's the one to beat. Watch the market for Tomibola, who shaped with promise at Huntingdon in a bumper last time when not unfancied, and could run a place at big odds.
2.25 - Handicap Chase (2m5f - 13 run)
Very tricky indeed. Smooth Classic has been bumped up 4lbs for finishing second at Plumpton eight days ago, where he clouted at least two fences on the way round. He is potentially well handicapped and stronger handling today is probably a good thing. Dot Or Feather could be overpriced if enjoying the blinkers on his first start for Graeme McPherson. On Gossamer Wings is very exposed and tends to find a couple too good. I would chance Jack Albert here at a price for James Reveley. He wasn't sighted on chase debut at Ayr, but is very unexposed and if he enjoyed the jumping, he could easily figure in a moderate race. As could Flichity if he backs his remarkable run at Southwell up with another big run. Mister Wiseman a big threat to all.
3.00 - Beginners Chase (2m - 9 run)
Once again, a tough puzzle to solve with many chances. Captain Brown, Pipe Banner, Where's The Hare and King Spirit were the four I ruled out first. I'm not overly convinced on Ubaltique jumping a fence but I can't quite nail down what worries me, but more than likely it is speed and resolution. Sporting Boy is the obvious starting point after starting his winning run at this time last year. He's only 5 but must be feared, as must Le Bacardy, who may find this fast surface a little bit too quick. I'm down to Dance Tempo and Harry Hunt, and I marginally favour the latter who has chase experience. He ran behind Sprinter Sacre and Overturn in the Wayward Lad on chase debut before a good second to Aland Islands at Newcastle, where he jumped really well. He's best off a break and is pretty hard to knock in an intriguing race.
3.40 - Handicap Hurdle (2m4f - 12 run)
A little bit easier to solve this time. Billy Twyford is on a big upward curve with back to back wins in handicap company since joining Lawney Hill at Wetherby and last time at Fontwell where he coped really well with a rise in trip and decent ground. This is more difficult off top weight but he has a huge chance for a hat trick. Dangers? Jetnova would be worth a mention purely because he is in the care of Alan King. He hasn't won for two years but is fairly treated and could go well as could Moonlight Drive on a going day, but they are very tough to predict!
4.15 - Uttoxetertwitterati Novices' Handicap Chase (3m - 10 run)
Forget the Guineas, this is the biggest race of the day!! It is another puzzle that takes a good bit of solving. Patsy Finnigan has had easier chances than this but remains in fair form. Blackwell Synergy and Oddjob are the two last time out winners in the contest but may not provide a great deal of value. The one I am particularly sweet on is Humphrey Bee for Charlie Longsdon. He is unexposed over fences and this quick ground is likely to bring about a bit more improvement. He has been dropped 3lbs for a good third to the ill fated Blazing Bull last time, given lots of weight to both the first and second. Richard Johnson rides too. Quel Ballistic could go well too.
4.50 - Handicap Hurdle (3m - 13 run)
Very tough race this one. Rich Buddy narrowly fought off Ukranian Star here last time out, but the latter recieves a 4lb weight swing for a half length beating which could sway it his way. Spoil Me got his head in front in a jumpers bumper last time and could be a threat back hurdling off a workable mark. However, I'm going to chance one at a big price in Miss Overdrive. She needs fast ground and so far this season has had to encounter terrible, tacky ground which she detests. She is now on a career low mark in an open race on ground she loves, therefore making her a bet at 20/1.
5.25 - Handicap Hurdle (3m - 15 run)
Midnight Whisper sets the standard here for Richard Woollacott, a yard who are poised to hit form one feels. He won at Taunton recently and must go well again. As dangers go, Genny Wren is bound to run a big race for Renee Robeson, another yard to watch at this track. Supermightyfine and Harris Garden are both horses I think are capable of wins and any strong market move for either would be significant.
I hope you have enjoyed the preview, and fingers crossed there is a few winners mixed in there.
Any feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Enjoy the racing,
Will
2000 Guineas Preview:
Many people are treating Saturday's first Classic as a face off between Dawn Approach and Toronado, two unbeaten colts with 10 wins between them, 6-4 in Dawn Approach's favour. To be fair, I agree with the majority and more than likely the winner will come from one of these two. Dawn Approach for me would be the one I favour. He oozes class and switches off very early in his races and doesn't win by a big margin, therefore not showing a cap on his ability quite yet. He handles the dip adequately without making much ground but I think he may be a little too classy. Toronado is a very worthy opponent and won the Craven nicely, but historically not many win both the Craven and the Guineas, plus Richard Hughes said after the Champagne Stakes he was a 'Derby Horse'.
Of the others, Mars is a talking horse and could be anything. You would be surprised if Garswood was good enough to win it but could run a place. Cristiforo Colombo has cheek-pieces on and has a fair bit to find with Dawn Approach from the Coventry and hasn't run beyond six furlongs. I like George Vancouver each way. He's a Group 1 winner in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at the back end of last year over a mile so has no stamina worries. Aiden O'Brien is a master of getting them ready for the big day and I think he could be a bit of value.
1000 Guineas Preview:
Hot Snap was a taking winner of the Nell Gwyn despite racing with greeness again, showed a nice turn of foot to catch Sky Lantern and draw away. She has been given a 35lb rise in the handicap for that success. Sky Lantern had to give her 3lbs in the Nell Gwyn and was drawn in the middle of the track which was a negative in the end. I think Hot Snap is plenty short enough in comparison to Sky Lantern and the latter could easily turn the form around. Just The Judge, What A Name and Maureen all demand plenty of respect in a good renewal. I was impressed with Moth last time, and it is telling that Aiden O'Brien supplemented her for this on the back of that win at The Curragh. In a tough race, I'll take Moth and Sky Lantern against the field.
UTTOXETER PREVIEW:
1.55 - 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (2m - 16 run)
A fiercely competitive opener setting the tone for the rest of the card for sure. What I would say however is there is plenty of dead wood in it and a shortlist of about five can be made quite quickly. The safest one for placepot purposes would be Oyster Shell on the back of a very narrow defeat last time for the flying Henry Daly yard. I think Picture Post has quirks and I'll be avoiding him. The one I do quite like is Sleeping City for Victor Dartnall, a yard who always do well here. He does have a few jumping problems, including when falling at the last when leading Swing Bowler last March. Last time out was a return to his best before he stumbled badly on the turn for home and was pulled up. If he brings his A game, he's the one to beat. Watch the market for Tomibola, who shaped with promise at Huntingdon in a bumper last time when not unfancied, and could run a place at big odds.
2.25 - Handicap Chase (2m5f - 13 run)
Very tricky indeed. Smooth Classic has been bumped up 4lbs for finishing second at Plumpton eight days ago, where he clouted at least two fences on the way round. He is potentially well handicapped and stronger handling today is probably a good thing. Dot Or Feather could be overpriced if enjoying the blinkers on his first start for Graeme McPherson. On Gossamer Wings is very exposed and tends to find a couple too good. I would chance Jack Albert here at a price for James Reveley. He wasn't sighted on chase debut at Ayr, but is very unexposed and if he enjoyed the jumping, he could easily figure in a moderate race. As could Flichity if he backs his remarkable run at Southwell up with another big run. Mister Wiseman a big threat to all.
3.00 - Beginners Chase (2m - 9 run)
Once again, a tough puzzle to solve with many chances. Captain Brown, Pipe Banner, Where's The Hare and King Spirit were the four I ruled out first. I'm not overly convinced on Ubaltique jumping a fence but I can't quite nail down what worries me, but more than likely it is speed and resolution. Sporting Boy is the obvious starting point after starting his winning run at this time last year. He's only 5 but must be feared, as must Le Bacardy, who may find this fast surface a little bit too quick. I'm down to Dance Tempo and Harry Hunt, and I marginally favour the latter who has chase experience. He ran behind Sprinter Sacre and Overturn in the Wayward Lad on chase debut before a good second to Aland Islands at Newcastle, where he jumped really well. He's best off a break and is pretty hard to knock in an intriguing race.
3.40 - Handicap Hurdle (2m4f - 12 run)
A little bit easier to solve this time. Billy Twyford is on a big upward curve with back to back wins in handicap company since joining Lawney Hill at Wetherby and last time at Fontwell where he coped really well with a rise in trip and decent ground. This is more difficult off top weight but he has a huge chance for a hat trick. Dangers? Jetnova would be worth a mention purely because he is in the care of Alan King. He hasn't won for two years but is fairly treated and could go well as could Moonlight Drive on a going day, but they are very tough to predict!
4.15 - Uttoxetertwitterati Novices' Handicap Chase (3m - 10 run)
Forget the Guineas, this is the biggest race of the day!! It is another puzzle that takes a good bit of solving. Patsy Finnigan has had easier chances than this but remains in fair form. Blackwell Synergy and Oddjob are the two last time out winners in the contest but may not provide a great deal of value. The one I am particularly sweet on is Humphrey Bee for Charlie Longsdon. He is unexposed over fences and this quick ground is likely to bring about a bit more improvement. He has been dropped 3lbs for a good third to the ill fated Blazing Bull last time, given lots of weight to both the first and second. Richard Johnson rides too. Quel Ballistic could go well too.
4.50 - Handicap Hurdle (3m - 13 run)
Very tough race this one. Rich Buddy narrowly fought off Ukranian Star here last time out, but the latter recieves a 4lb weight swing for a half length beating which could sway it his way. Spoil Me got his head in front in a jumpers bumper last time and could be a threat back hurdling off a workable mark. However, I'm going to chance one at a big price in Miss Overdrive. She needs fast ground and so far this season has had to encounter terrible, tacky ground which she detests. She is now on a career low mark in an open race on ground she loves, therefore making her a bet at 20/1.
5.25 - Handicap Hurdle (3m - 15 run)
Midnight Whisper sets the standard here for Richard Woollacott, a yard who are poised to hit form one feels. He won at Taunton recently and must go well again. As dangers go, Genny Wren is bound to run a big race for Renee Robeson, another yard to watch at this track. Supermightyfine and Harris Garden are both horses I think are capable of wins and any strong market move for either would be significant.
I hope you have enjoyed the preview, and fingers crossed there is a few winners mixed in there.
Any feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Enjoy the racing,
Will
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