20 Jumpers To Follow for the 2014-15 season

The nights are drawing in, the leaves are turning orange and falling off the trees which can only mean one thing, top quality jump racing is on the horizon and as ever, I can't wait.
As regular readers of the blog will be aware, I compile a list of jumpers to follow which mainly comprises horses in my tracker or ones which caught my eye last season. There were six horses who just missed the cut and those six are:
Regal Encore (A Honeyball)
Merlin's Wish (M Keighley)
Kelvingrove (Jonjo O'Neill)
Goodwood Mirage (Jonjo O'Neill)
Clever Cookie (P Niven)
Jimmy The Jetplane (K Bailey)

It isn't that I think these horses won't be winning races (excluding Clever Cookie who doesn't look as though he will run this winter after a busy summer on the level), but maybe their targets were unclear to me or they are not particularly trustworthy.

However, let's move on to the list itself (in no particular order), I hope you enjoy reading it, pop them in your NagMe tracker (other trackers are available!) and hopefully make a few pounds from them as the season progresses.

1) Ballyalton - Ian Williams

Ballyalton - Gears to burn and a novice chaser of immense potential

As any of my twitter followers will testify, I love Ballyalton to bits and unfortunately for him, he bumped into Faugheen in the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival which stopped him gaining a really big prize. He needs good to soft ground ideally so his run behind Aubusson at New Year can be excused and after seeing him in the flesh at Newcastle and Southwell in the past, he will definitely jump a fence as he has plenty of scope and size. He has won a bad ground PTP (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKX3UoH_yOk) so should stay three miles no problem and I cannot wait to see him over larger obstacles.

2) O'Faolains Boy - Rebecca Curtis

O'Faolains Boy a real Gold Cup contender

O'Faolains Boy was a highlight of my Cheltenham Festival as my ante post wager on him landed in the RSA Chase under a great ride by Barry Geraghty. He reminds me of a classier Synchronised in the Gold Cup the way he went through that race, having to be nudged and pushed along at regular intervals but always finding generously for his partner although his jumping wasn't always great. He ran badly at Aintree after that but he had a very hard race at Cheltenham and at Ascot prior to that, and I think he was also unsuited by the speedy nature of the track at Aintree. Tracks such as Cheltenham suit him better, and it'll be interesting to see where he starts off this season, with races like the Charlie Hall and Betfair Chase obvious starting points. Hopefully, he will develop into a live Gold Cup contender come March.

3) Buywise - Evan Williams

For me he chucked away the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase at the Festival with bad errors at important times, but he made amends by returning to the jumping holy grail that is Cheltenham by taking the Silver Trophy with any amount in hand despite getting out of his ground with errors. His current BHA mark would get him into the Paddy Power Gold Cup off a weight of around 10st 8lb in recent years, which would be extremely tempting for connections, who were slightly favouring a Hennessy bid instead, although personally I think he could be a real player in both races. He's only had eight rules races and could feasibly stilll improve plenty this season which makes him very exciting indeed. As a long term target, a race like the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown could be right up his street.

4) No More Heroes - Gordon Elliott

I don't think I've seen a more impressive bumper victory than No More Heroes destroying his field by 39 lengths at Leopardstown last Christmas, and if you haven't seen it before, then I would definitely advise you to take a look. That was a two and a half mile bumper and he followed up in a hot race at Naas in early February. He has had a run over hurdles (a respectable fourth before the NHF race victories) and is a PTP winner, so he will definitely have a big future. He is hurdling this season and there are some very bullish noises coming out of the Elliott camp about him. He looks an Albert Bartlett type.

5) Mr Grey - Ben Case

This a very dark one for you. Mr Grey has only had one rules start for the upwardly mobile yard of Ben Case, and that came at Kempton at November behind subsequent Challow Hurdle winner Captain Cutter where he travelled like a dream and led turning in before folding tamely and finishing fifth. I'm not sure whether he sustained an injury in the race itself but he showed plenty of promise regardless. He finished eight lengths behind Persian War winner Timesremembered in an Irish PTP before winning one in April 2013 before moving to the Case yard. Hopefully he makes it to the track this season, and if he does, then I'd be sure he would pick up a race or two for us.

6) Red Devil Boys - John Ferguson

John Ferguson has exciting times ahead with Red Devil Boys

This lad is a machine! I have waited a long time for him to reappear and this season could be one that really propels both this horse and his trainer, who has a very nice set of horses, into the upper echelons of the jumps game. He has been so impressive on all his runs, even when he was beaten in his first bumper to the very tough Kaysersburg, before slamming a fair field again at Doncaster, prior to winning with any amount in hand again at Town Moor on his hurdles debut in December 2012. I asked Denis O'Regan how this horse was one day at Southwell and he replied "He had an op but I effing hope he's ok as we like him an awful lot". That to me spoke volumes and whether it be hurdling or chasing, I can't wait for him to run again.

7) Kudu Shine - Richard Woollacott

Kudu Shine is 3-5 in the point sphere and caught a few eyes on his first hurdle start at Exeter before disappointing when favourite at the same venue on bottomless ground next time. He then ran respectably at Wincanton before running a belter at a big price at Cheltenham on good ground at the April meeting. If there is any good in the going description, then Kudu Shine is well handicapped off 114, but he looks one to ignore on deep ground.

8) Rydon Pynes - Martin Hill

Rydon Pynes did us proud last year in the jumpers to follow list with two wins, a second and a third from five starts. Whether he stays hurdling or goes over the larger obstacles this season I'm not sure, but whichever they decide to do, he will acquit himself well whatever. He needs three miles and acts on all ground, although proper good to soft probably suits him ideally. He has a mark of 131 now which is fair enough given his achievements thus far and he will remain very competitive off that.

9) The Ramblin Kid - Micky Hammond

The Ramblin Kid is closely related to former top chaser Master Of The Hall, who is also now trained by Micky Hammond and enjoying a mini revival this summer over hurdles. Anyway, as for The Ramblin Kid, he had five starts in Irish bumpers for Charlie Swan before moving across the Irish Sea, where his first run over timber came at Wetherby where he was flattered to finish six lengths behind Red Sherlock, but then got a masterful tactical front running ride by Jason Maguire to win at Newcastle on Eider Chase day to win by seven lengths. He then struggled to give weight away to a couple of smart northern horses when fourth at Hexham and could be one to watch this season, again either over hurdles or fences.

10) Trustan Times - Tim Easterby

Trustan Times carrying top weight to win the Fixed Brush at Haydock

Trustan Times is my idea of a long range Grand National fancy after two fantastic runs in the Spring, a very close fourth at Cheltenham in the Pertemps Final, finishing a neck behind Pineau De Re giving him 4lbs. He followed that up with a great third in the Scottish National after making a terrible error at the first fence. He excels in big fields and races such as the Welsh National and the English equivalent could be on his radar this term, although a third try in the Fixed Brush hurdle on Betfair Chase day at Haydock may be a starting point.

11) Modus - Robert Stephens

Modus was one of the leading English fancies for the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham after easy wins at Exeter on debut and then at Prestbury Park subsequently, but after being posted wide and pulling hard the whole way, he didn't get home and it was a similar story at Aintree after that. There could be a school of thought that he doesn't quite see out two miles, but the way he finished in his Cheltenham win on New Year's Day suggests he certainly wasn't stopping at the end despite bottomless ground. He could develop into a very good novice hurdler if he does learn to settle and jump well and looks to have gears.

12) Celtic Agent - Phil Kirby

Celtic Agent was a very easy winner of a Southwell bumper in early March after having had eighteen months off the course and a stable move from David O'Meara to Phil Kirby. The six year old son of Kayf Tara was then taken to Aintree for another bumper and he failed to give away 6lbs to Echo Springs who won for trainer John Quinn, but he was only beaten a shade over two lengths. There could be lots more to come over timber from this horse and I, alongside some good judges I have spoken to think he could be quite decent.

13) Martello Tower - Margaret Mullins

Martello Tower successful at Killarney last time

Martello Tower is an exciting horse for owner Barry Connell in Ireland. He was a huge eyecatcher when fourth in a Listed Novice Hurdle which his first run in that sphere, when flying home from a long way off the pace. He then reverted back to bumpers again regained the winning thread under Robbie McNamara before waiting for the new season to start before winning a hurdle under Danny Mullins at Killarney. He isn't flashy and will never win by too far, but he is very talented and will remain a novice for this season.

14) No Deal - Lucinda Russell

No Deal is a proper, old fashioned National Hunt horse who, if retaining his ability after an injury lay-off, could be a flagship horse for Lucinda Russell this season. A friend of mine and a very good judge Mark Rowntree (@uptheirons007 on Twitter) has this horse on the top of his jumpers to follow list (http://markrowntree07.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/scotland-north-national-hunt-10-to-follow-201415/) and I completely agree with him. He is held in high regard by the team at Arlary and is certainly one to keep on side in Northern novice chases on bad ground.

15) Heronshaw - Henry Daly

Hopefully Heronshaw will make it to the track this season at some point because if he does, then he is yet another to look forward to. He had no idea what he was doing in the preliminaries at Uttoxeter on debut, and was green in the race itself but showed a turn of foot on deep ground to win well. The over-riding impression seeing him beforehand was that he needed time and a fence to be seen at his best. He has a mark of 125 over hurdles, and he would still be very competitive off that mark, but he may well go chasing. Either way, if he runs, then he should pick up a prize or two this season.

16) Blakemount - Sue Smith

Blakemount should be a horse that goes right to the top of the staying novice chase division this year, hopefully avoiding Ballyalton!! I saw him run behind Ballyalton at Newcastle where he performed very well, before winning at the same course just before Christmas and then narrowly beaten in a terrific dual with Urban Hymn up the Doncaster home straight in a Grade 2 on Skybet Chase day. He jumps and stays really well and acts on all ground, so what's not to like?! He reminds me of Royal Emperor a few years ago from the same yard in that sense, a horse who was second in the RSA to Rule Supreme.

17) Baradari - Venetia Williams

Unlike a few horses I have spoken about so far in this post, Baradari probably is better with plenty of juice in the ground. He ran very well in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, flying up the hill for a close fifth after being badly outpaced. He was then creeping into contention at Aintree before falling four out and Sandown I think was a bit of an afterthought and he was down the field off top weight. The Greatwood Hurdle on deep ground could be a target but he is a nice horse who should continue to pay his way.

18) Saints And Sinners - Mick Easterby

Saints And Sinners really caught my eye at the end of last season in a contest won by Streams Of Whiskey when finishing fifth. After being well backed prior to the off and travelling particularly well throughout in the rear division, before picking runners off all the way up the straight without threatening the places. I'm convinced he is thrown in off a mark of 113 over fences, and remains a novice for this season. I would be baffled if he couldn't win at least one off that mark.

19) Alcala - Paul Nicholls

Paul Nicholls likes Alcala an awful lot

Alcala was a big eyecatcher in the Adonis hurdle when Paul Nicholls warned that this horse owned by Andrea and Graham Wylie may come on for the run, and it certainly appeared that way in the race itself when after travelling powerfully, he struggled to quicken initially before keeping on to be fourth behind Activial. This is a quote from Nicholls in the Guardian a week or so ago about him "We decided to keep him as a novice for this season and he’s definitely a horse to follow. We like him a lot."
That'll be enough for me!

20) Henrybrowneyes - Ian Williams

A very dark one to end with.This huge son of Goldmark caught the eye when fifth in a jumpers bumper at Kempton on debut before a laboured effort at Stratford. He then ran a bit better at Chepstow on his final run last season behind Simon Squirrel, who is now with Paul Nicholls and I think this lad looks like a handicap hurdle prospect so a bit of patience would be advised initially, before hopefully he rewards us once he gets a mark in due course.

I hope you have enjoyed the preview, and if you have any feedback, good or bad, either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky,
Will

24/5/14 Selections across all cards

It's another very busy Saturday of racing coming up and on top of that, there is a monsterous Scoop6 to have a pop at, with £15 million across both the win and bonus funds. I think personally that everyone who knows a bit about racing should just have a go for the sake of a mere £2, and you never know, you might just land the big pot.
In this post, I'll preview those Scoop6 races and give my thoughts about all the other meetings of the day, including the Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh.

Beverley:

It is one of Beverley's biggest days of the year with the Two Year Old Trophy taking centre stage at 3.40. In that race, I think Midterm Break might be the one to plump for for David Barron and jockey David Allan. He was beaten narrowly by Roudee on debut, before that horse was second in the Lily Agnes at Chester, and then broke his maiden at Southwell last time on the Fibresand easily.
It'll be fascinating to see how Basem gets on in the 4.15 for Saeed Bin Suroor and Silvestre De Sousa. He was the winner of the Wood Ditton at Newmarket on debut; but he is still entered in the Derby in a fortnight's time and if he has any aspirations about taking up that engagement, he will have to win this, and win it handsomely.
Of the rest of the card, I thought Make On Madam would probably break her maiden in the 2.30 and Maybeme could be each way value in the opener at 2.00.

Cartmel:

Yum Yum, Sticky Toffee Pudding, can only mean Cartmel!!!

Cartmel is back!! If you haven't been to this little gem of a track in the Lake District, I would highly recommend it. The novice chase on the card at 7.55 is a corker, with Ann Hamilton's stable star Runswick Royal trying to win over fences at the second attempt after going down by a nose to Master Of The Game at Kelso last month. Sultana Belle and Swaledale Lad, both previous chasing winners are in the line up together with former decent Flat horse Captain Brown and Tim Vaughan's Elsafeer. Guanciale looks interesting racing on decent ground in the 6.50 race, and if you are looking for a back and lay back horse, then look no further than Gold Chain in the 6.20, who traded very short on his first hurdles start in particular.

Catterick:

There are a couple of Scoop6 races from Catterick, with the first of them coming up at 2.50, which is Leg 2. I like a couple in here that are at double figure prices at the time of writing, in the shape of Showboating and Joe Eile. Showboating is a horse I've followed for some time and he certainly doesn't owe me anything, with a few wins and plenty of placed efforts to his name lately. This style of race suits his hold up tactics well and with the likes of Dr Red Eye, Evanescent and Henry The Aviator all likely to go forward and I can't see him being out the first three or four. Joe Eile is a well handicapped Irish recruit for John Quinn and shaped with some promise on two of his last three starts, and I'm willing to forgive his last run as nothing much came from off the pace and he didn't seem to like Ripon that much either.
The 3.25 is the other race that forms part of the Scoop6, and it looks as though Day Of The Eagle is primed to strike for Mick Easterby. He is a well handicapped horse who ran much better last time and there isn't much in this race to worry me.
Finally, in the 5.45, I really want to take on Sitting Pritty with Bondi Beach Babe, a filly who has been catching my eye and this looks her easiest opportunity to date, as long as she breaks on terms.

TCurragh:

Kingman looks very hard to beat in Ireland

In the Irish 2000 Guineas, Kingman looks like a good thing on the strength of his form in the English equivalent just three weeks ago, although Shifting Power's connections may feel that they can make up two lengths on him this time, and the price differential between the two is too vast. I thought Big Time was the one of the Irish contingent that could run well, as he isn't a million miles away from War Command on a line through Sudirman and his trainer was adamant that he'd be a high class three year old, so at around 20/1, he could run well.

Ffos Las:

It looks a pretty average card to be honest at Ffos Las. I'd chance a small stakes Lucky 15 on Anteros in the 6.35, Sir Mattie in the 7.40 who has Paul Moloney back aboard tomorrow, Princesse Fleur in the 8.15 and Irish raider Countdown in the bumper at 8.45.

Goodwood:

Pether's Moon winning at Goodwood last season, and must go well at 2.20

Leg 3 of the Scoop6 comes up on the Sussex Downs at 2.55, and it is a very open three year old handicap over seven furlongs. Penny Drops had been quite frustrating until her demolition job at Lingfield recently, and maybe her name is what is actually happening to her now she knows how to win. Willy Brennan could be her main danger.
Earlier on in the card, I thought Pether's Moon would be hard to beat now that he has a 3lb weight pull with Gatewood from last time out, together with good track form. Mirsaale could go well against him for James Tate. In the opener, I thought Quick Wit, who seemed to really enjoy racing in Britain last summer could go well at a decent price in the hands of Ahmed Ajtebi. However, the best bet on the Downs looks to be Mon Brav in the 4.40, who won this corresponding race last year for trainer Brian Ellison and comes back on a 2lb lower mark and seemingly running into form after a respectable run in fourth last time.

Haydock:

The opening race at Haydock is a wide open stayers handicap over two miles, and I thought Huff And Puff could be a bit of value for trainer Venetia Williams, better known for her jumpers. This horse did win over hurdles recently and hopefully there won't be too much rain, as that would harm his chance.
2.05 brings about the first leg of the Scoop6, and hopefully Run With Pride can win here to keep plenty of dreams alive, at least until the second leg! I was in the paddock when he made his winning debut at Doncaster and trainer Derek Shaw said afterwards that he "could be the best I've ever had", and duly entered him for the July Cup at Newmarket. He is seriously well thought of and I like him a lot.
I don't have much of a view in the Temple Stakes but the old boy Kingsgate Native must play a part if previous years are anything to go by.
Then we have Leg 4 of the Scoop6 at 3.10, and I found this Listed fillies sprint a tough puzzle to solve. March ran well and was a shade unlucky in a race that's working out well at Bath last time, but she wouldn't want any rain. Perfect Blessings is one that could go well, as she is completely unexposed and Clive Cox has had his horses in really good nick of late.
You have to wonder how many people will still be in the Scoop6 come the final leg at 3.45, if any, but I'm sure Musselburgh scorer Bilimbi will prove very popular for Ryan Moore. If one was going to go well at a big price, it may well just be Hot Coffee for Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote. She was very very impressive on debut here last July and ran okay in a Group 3 at Deauville after that. She ran pretty well at Chester on her reappearance after racing keenly on soft ground and I feel 20/1 is far too big.

Any feedback? Either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky,
Will

The Flat is back and here are the winners (hopefully!)

Hi all,

After a very good Winter, the Flat turf season has been sneakily creeping up on us and the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster is the curtain raiser and I will focus on the big race last of all here to reveal my eighth and final selection for the day across all the domestic fixtures.

1) Maureen 2.40 Doncaster

Maureen is trying her hand at sprinting this year after a pretty unlucky campaign last season where she didn't get the rub of the green in the big races such as the English and Irish Guineas and was probably the likely winner but for being stopped in her run in the Rosemary Stakes at the back end of the season. She is a very strong traveller and has done her winning on turf with a bit of give in the ground so softer ground certainly doesn't blunt her turn of foot, and she is also on favourable terms with both Jack Dexter and Tropics here with her fillies allowance. She for me is overpriced at around 11/2 at the time of writing. Jack Dexter has to be respected and I feel as though Tropics may just need one run to get to A1 condition.

2) Born To Surprise ew 3.15 Doncaster

Born To Surprise runs in the ultra competitive Spring Mile, a consolation race for the Lincoln for trainer Lee Carter and jockey Amir Quinn. Lee Carter has had his string in fine fettle this winter, as proved by the stats. In 2012, he had a record of 8/105, followed by 12/136 in 2013 but in 2014 he is already 11/68, and considering he is taking cast-offs effectively, he is doing an even better job. This horse is very talented and just lost his way for Michael Bell, so the change of yard over the winter wasn't a bad thing, and he ran an eyecatching race at Kempton lately, on his seasonal and yard debut, staying on late under hands and heels over further. He has won twice at Doncaster from three visits and I think he could outrun his odds of 33/1 at present.

3) Zafranagar 5.35 Doncaster

This lad is just about my nap of the day. In a race that probably won't take a great deal of winning, I can't see any reason why this nine year old won't be bang there at the end. He won this same race two years ago off a 4lb higher mark and having won over hurdles in November, he is clearly well within himself at present. I think he has a huge chance, although if there was some improvement from Roger Thorpe for this step up in trip, he could be the main danger.

4) Streets Of Newyork 2.55 Kempton

I posted on Twitter a while back that I thought this horse had a big race in him now he has moved to Brian Ellison, and this race might be perfect. After a very eyecatching effort at Musselburgh over hurdles on New Year's Day, he has finished in the frame twice in Southwell maidens over seven furlongs and a mile, staying on well on both occasions. He is up to eleven furlongs here and only has 8st 1lb to carry. I think there are much worse 12/1 shots around on Saturday than this lad.

5) Noble Protector 5.15 Kempton

Noble Protector is a horse who I have always had an eye on for a fruitful four year old campaign as I still think he was a big, raw baby. Hopefully with another winter under him, he should be well handicapped off a mark of 80 and he can make his presence felt here against older and more exposed rivals.

6) Kelvingrove 1.55 Stratford

A horse who I followed through the last Flat season and was bought for pretty big money for his new connections at the end of last year. He hasn't raced over hurdles yet but is a potentially very exciting recruit for Jonjo O'Neill and jockey Maurice Linehan. He was the best of these on the Flat and receives the best part of a stone from the majority of the field due to the four year old allowance and the rider's 5lb claim. I am really looking forward to seeing how he gets on.

7) Go West Young Man 3.55 Uttoxeter

Go West Young Man is a horse I've been keeping an eye on for handicaps on ground with some give in it, and that's what he's got here. He has an opening mark of 109 to go to war with, which is not unfair by any means and although he is up against two last time out winners here, he should be in the shake up.

8) Tres Coronas 3.50 Doncaster

Finally The Lincoln Handicap at 3.50, and I think there are a few who can go well here. Levitate will be thereabouts again as well as Off Art. Unsinkable is an interesting runner for Jonjo O'Neill who has good success in recent times with his Flat horses such as Tominator and Well Sharp, and this one has last season's leading apprentice Jason Hart aboard. I think however I am happy with two against the field, and they are Whispering Warrior and more so Tres Coronas. Whispering Warrior is thoroughly progressive and won the Lincoln Trial under a different rider last time at Wolverhampton but he has an equally impressive record on turf so that is not a problem. He could be the Group horse in here. Tres Coronas is a seven year old but always seems best with a run under his belt, and I felt he was a bit unlucky not to finish closer to Whispering Warrior last time and now gets a 5lb weight pull which should put them very close together.

I think both will go well.

If you want a Meydan interest for World Cup night, then maybe an each way lucky 15 of Shuruq 1.10, Dabadiyan 1.45, Mshawish 4.39 and Akeed Mofeed 6.05 might fit the bill.

Any feedback? Either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky,
Will

Cheltenham 2014 - Day 3 & 4 Previews

In this final post of Cheltenham selections, I have shortened the previews a bit to squeeze in all the races on the remaining two days of the meeting as most of you will read this on Monday evening. Let's get straight on with it then!

Thursday:
JLT Novice Chase:

Taquin Du Seuil must go well

A very open race to start off the Thursday, and one that I don't have much of a view on at the moment. Taquin Du Seuil though is a horse I've liked for a long time and I'm sure he can run well for Jonjo O'Neill and AP McCoy at around the eight or nine to one mark. Sizing Gold is another that I think will appreciate the decent ground and the drop back to two and a half miles is a plus after being outstayed by Foxrock over three on heavy ground last time. He has also been given very positive mentions at many Irish Preview Nights by his trainer and jockey so at around 12's at the time of writing looks a fair each way play.

Pertemps Final:

Top Wood surprised in deep ground last time and should love conditions here

The Pertemps is a race that the Pipe team have won a couple of times in recent runnings with Buena Vista, and I think Top Wood can go well for them this time around. He won well at a big big price last time at Haydock off a break, but his winning form prior to that was on a sounder surface. At around 20/1, he can run a race, as will Trackmate for James Evans, a rapid improver on good ground over the last two summers and was a course and distance winner here in October. But as ever with this race, there are loads with chances so if you fancy one, stick with it and have a go.

Ryanair Chase:

Can Boston Bob score at Cheltenham for Willie Mullins?

To answer the question under the picture, I'd be surprised if he did feature after such a poor run in the Cleeve Hurdle in conditions that he should have loved. Benefficient will be hard to beat for me, although I do have a soft spot for Al Ferof. I'm never been sold on Dynaste that much but I do respect him without fearing him. If you want one at a big price, Medermit could go well for Alan King and Robert Thornton, a horse who was narrowly denied in this race and the Supreme Novice Hurdle in the past and at 33/1, you could do far worse than chuck a few quid each way on him.

World Hurdle:

Could At Fishers Cross (right) cause a bit of a shock

A brilliant race that divides opinion. Will Annie Power stay? Is Big Buck's the horse of old? How good is More Of That? Is At Fishers Cross going to jump well enough? Can Rule The World play a part? Whatever your opinion, it will be a fascinating race to watch unfold. Personally, after seeing Annie Power quicken so well at Doncaster, I'm slightly concerned she won't stay but I'm probably wrong. I think Big Buck's will take a heck of a lot of beating, and At Fishers Cross could certainly be a big threat for AP. The only horse I think is any value is Zarkandar each way, who is ultra consistent and is well worth a try at three miles on good ground. But regardless of who you have or haven't backed, this is a race to saviour and hopefully it will live long in the memory.

Byrne Group Plate:
I could only find one here, and that is John's Spirit, a good winner of the Paddy Power and Jonjo O'Neill will be desperate to win this race for Patsy Byrne, who was a big supporter and friend of his up until his death last summer.

Kim Muir:
Another race I don't really like so I'll stick with the favourite Indian Castle, an improving novice who is a very good jumper and heralds from a stable who target this race and have won it with former stable stars such as Cloudy Lane and Ballabriggs.

FRIDAY:

Triumph Hurdle:
A tough one to call, with no particular runner interesting me enough to have a bet as of yet. Pearl Castle was very impressive when I saw him two starts ago and I've liked Abbyssial in Ireland, but he isn't the number one Mullins runner.

County Hurdle:
Another Mullins runner drawing me in here in the shape of Blood Cotil who stayed on well in the Fred Winter last year from a long way back, and also caught the eye in midfield behind Gilgamboa last time. He can go well, together with Cheltenian who won the Bumper a few years ago and ran a screamer in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time.

Albert Bartlett:
A race I'm struggling to work out. I like King's Palace, and the fact he jumps so well will definitely help but there is no value in his price, neither is there with Briar Hill. Urban Hymn and Blakemount both finished very closely together at Doncaster, and I think the latter could go nicely at a price. If Rydon Pynes ran, I would have to back him and I think he could actually surprise a few at around 40/1.

Gold Cup:
It really is Bobs Worth's race to lose I think, unbeaten at Cheltenham and last year's winner and this years race looks slightly less deep in opposition so I think he will win. As for each way bets, The Giant Bolster and Teaforthree are both horses that I like, particularly the former who has a great Cheltenham record.

Foxhunters:
With no Salsify, this race is a bit more open than normal, and maybe the Brits can be victorious this time with Harbour Court for Alan Hill and James Tudor. He is a horse with a huge engine and with a previous win at Cheltenham. There is another British trained runner that I like, and that is Ockey De Neulliac, a horse who could go well at a really big price.

Martin Pipe:
Not a race that's easy to analyse at this point, but Calculated Risk has targeted this race and won well when last seen at Sedgefield.

Grand Annual:
This features my best value bet of the week with His Excellency, who was cruising when falling at three out in this last year off a 9lb higher mark. He had a very hard campaign last year, racing about 15 times, but this time he has only had five starts to this point, and off a mark of 142 and ten stone eight to carry, I think 20/1 represents very good value.

If you have any comments or feedback, either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky,
Will

Cheltenham 2014 - Day 2 Preview

Unfortunately there is no Sprinter Sacre this year to light up the Wednesday of the Festival, but with the reshuffle of races at this year's meeting, it means there is a higher chance of us seeing a smart novice in either the Neptune, RSA or Fred Winter, and that's leaving out the Bumper. I have some strong fancies on this day in particular so let's hope they perform to their best.

Wednesday:

1.30 Neptune Novice Hurdle:

Ballyalton (right) fends off Garde La Victoire at Cheltenham in December

This is the race that I am looking forward to the most all week. I am definitely up for opposing Faugheen at the likely short price as his jumping in Ireland so far hasn't entirely convinced, albeit over slightly taller Easyfix hurdles last time at Limerick. He has a very similar hype to Pont Alexandre who failed last year and hasn't been seen this term due to injury and I just feel as though I can take him on. The main one to do it with of course is Red Sherlock, who is still unbeaten for the Pipes and is a dual Cheltenham winner; a massive plus. He won takingly last time when battling off Rathvinden up the hill and is sure to be involved at the business end. But as many of you know, I am a huge Ballyalton fan and I see no reason why he won't figure here. The ground was awful when he ran last time so you can forget that run but prior to that he had won at Cheltenham beating Garde La Victoire recovering after a bad blunder, and beat Oscar Rock at Newcastle over further on good ground proving he stays.
With many of the horses ahead of him in the market between Red Sherlock and Ballyalton likely to come out, he is too big at 16/1 and certainly won't be that on the day.

2.05 RSA Chase:

O'Faolains Boy was good in the Reynoldstown at Ascot

This race is really wide open. I don't like Ballycasey though, he's a horse I've never really got a handle on which was topped off by his schooling fall at Leopardstown last week. The other thing is he hasn't won over three miles over fences yet. He was beaten by Morning Assembly last season at Punchestown and that rival is back again here and must be respected. Smad Place has finished third in the last two World Hurdles and is another to be wary of, but I'm keen on another British trained duo. Corrin Wood really impressed me at Warwick when he jumped Black Thunder, a very useful sort, into the ground. He is a very good jumper and stays particularly well, a vital tool in what is normally a gruelling event. Donald McCain has stressed that he doesn't have to lead though and hopefully he can get into a lovely rhythm.
The other is O'Faolains Boy, a horse who was fourth to stablemate At Fishers Cross in the Albert Bartlett last season after doing much of the donkey work for him. He scoped very badly at Haydock two runs ago when he was pulled up at halfway, but bounced back very well at Ascot last time to beat Many Clouds and Third Intention and if he could replicate that, he'd be sure to figure.
As for the others, Gevrey Chambertin might be overlooked at 33/1 after having a pace battle with Many Clouds in that Ascot race just mentioned, which after a break of four months meant he dropped away very tamely in the straight, but he did jump well enough to suggest he is an above average novice. If it came up good ground, then Le Bec would be a big threat too.

2.40 Coral Cup:

Alan King had a 1-2 in this last year, can he win it again?

The Coral Cup is a fantastic race and as a budding commentator, one I look forward to with the big field and fast pace. There have been some amazing finishes to this in the past, What's Up Boys always springs to mind and some big gambles, with Son Of Flicka the biggest landed in recent times. This time around, Dunguib heads the weights for Phillip Fenton, a horse who won the Festival Bumper so easily in 2009 before going off a 4/5 favourite for the 2010 Supreme Novices, but was beaten by Menorah into third. He has only run a handful of times since and is very hard to keep sound but he'd be a fascinating runner nonetheless. Meister Eckhart is my main fancy for the race after his excellent second in it last year to the plucky Medinas and a very decent comeback effort at Fontwell where a) the ground was too deep for him and b) he needed the run badly.
Although higher in the weights this time, I see it hard for him not to be there at the business end.
The other three I can see going well are Clerks Choice, a horse with some good backform at the course and who's been doing well on the all weather since moving stables, Party Rock, who won four races on the spin last March/April and needs good ground to be at his best and Bayan, an improver from the Gordon Elliott yard in Ireland that loves a big field and ran Sametegal very close here in October and recieves a further 8lbs from rival here should they both run.

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase:

Sire De Grugy - Banker or lay?

To answer the question above, I think Sire De Grugy is a lay at the price for sure. He has been beaten three times over fences in his life from eleven starts, two of which have been here at Cheltenham, behind Captain Conan and Kid Cassidy, who will both line up against him here priced at around 5/1 and 10/1 at the time of writing. Kid Cassidy is not an easy ride, but you can forget his run in Ireland last time as he didn't travel over very well and the race wasn't run to suit him so AP wasn't hard on him when his chance was gone. Captain Conan is a threat for sure if he runs to his best.
Back to Sire De Grugy, Gary Moore has only trained one Festival winner in the past, which was Tikram in the Mildmay Of Flete many years ago and Jamie Moore has never ridden a Festival winner. It is not that I dislike the horse or connections, it is that he is a very poor value bet in my opinion at around 2/1 or 9/4.
What does win then I hear you say? Well, I was very keen on Benefficient but he is going to the Ryanair instead so I'll plump for Hinterland to give Paul Nicholls a winner. He is a previous course winner, but he has excelled this season in his second season as a novice chaser, beating the likes of Balder Succes, Taquin Du Seuil and Grandouet in the Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown when last seen in December and will love the decent ground. Noel Fehily rides which is another big plus.
Arvika Ligeonniere ran a shocker in last year's Arkle and looks much better going right handed to me. Both Module and Sizing Europe are others with chances but more a race to watch than bet in.

4.00 Cross Country Handicap Chase:

Sire Collonges (pink and black stripes) loved this course last time

Like this race or not, it certainly provides a different spectacle for people at the Festival. Balthazar King is a hard horse to pass when given good ground on this course, so is definitely the one to beat. Last year's winner Big Shu comes back for a bit more and must be feared but I'm siding with another Nicholls runner, this time Sire Collonges. I have backed him for the Grand National and this eight year old relished the cross country fences when winning here last time under Ryan Mahon. He loves good ground and I think he is a rattling each way bet. Love Rory may be the biggest threat should he take to Cheltenham on his first try for the cross country master Enda Bolger.

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle:

Goodwood Mirage could be well handicapped

It's not a race that I find easy, similarly I don't think the handicapper does because he has very little evidence to try and give a horse a mark, and he may be 10lbs too harsh or 10lbs too lenient. I can find two of interest, and as my Twitter followers know, I'm very keen on Goodwood Mirage. He was bought for 380,000 guineas for Lady Bamford with the aim of winning the JCB Triumph Hurdle; JCB being the Bamford's famous business. After winning at Kempton on debut, he struggled at Cheltenham next time before really catching the eye at Kempton in the Adonis. He will definitely appreciate the better ground on offer next week, plus the end to end gallop which he would have become accustomed to on the level, something he hasn't yet experienced over hurdles which will help his jumping. He has a mark of 132 and I think he will go very well.
The other horse I like is David Pipe's only entry Azza under Tom Scudamore who could be quite well in off 129, and although I am not a trends man, she does fit all the trends for this race and at 25/1 might be worth an each way flutter.

5.15 Champion Bumper:

Modus storming up the Cheltenham hill on New Year's Day

One of the few races all week I have no real opinion about, but from what I have of Modus, he must run well for rookie trainer Robert Stephens. He has bolted up on both starts to date, at Exeter on debut and Cheltenham subsequently when he showed a very good turn of foot on bad ground. With a flat pedigree, you would think that would only be enhanced again on better ground and he is probably the best of the British runners, ahead of Our Kaempfer and El Namoose. Oscarteea could go well for the Honeyball yard.
As for the Irish, I was at Doncaster's preview evening recently and the panel put up a big argument for Killultagh Vic for Willie Mullins, who will be ridden by Ruby Walsh. He hammered Golantilla who was third in this race last year at Naas last time and could be the value Irish play, although personally I was impressed with Value At Risk's easy Leopardstown win.

If you have any feedback, either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky,
Will

Cheltenham 2014 - Day 1 Preview

With only days to go before the roar erupts from the grandstands at Cheltenham, I thought it was time that I collated my views onto the blog for you to view. I have a few strong fancies which will become clear over the next few posts, and hopefully we can be up by the end of the week.

I will start with Day 1:

1.30 - Supreme Novice Hurdle:

Irving a good thing?

Irving is the red hot favourite for the opening race of the meeting, but I have three pretty serious doubts about him that make his price of 5/2 seem very skinny to me. The first one, although it may be a very minor concern, is that he has never run left handed before in this country, after wins at Taunton, Ascot twice and Kempton so far. The second is that he has come off the Flat and is an out and out two miler, whereas the past winners of this race suggest on the whole that you have to stay well, with Menorah, Al Ferof and Champagne Fever all recent winners, with the likes of L'Escargot, the dual Gold Cup and Grand National winner a past victor further back. Finally, I am not one to make a point about jockeys but Nick Scholfield has only ridden one Cheltenham Festival winner, Hunt Ball in the 2012 Pulteney Land Novice Handicap Chase, and only one Grade 1 winner, Melodic Rendezvous in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown. I just think with these concerns, he is very short at 5/2, and I'd rather be a layer than a backer.
The British handicapper reckons that Irving is rated 149 after his easy Dovecote success, but Vautour is rated 154, acts on all ground, stays well, copes with big fields and has the master Ruby Walsh on his back. The only slight concern is his jumping and the fact he probably won't get an easy lead but apart from that, he must go very close indeed.
I would much rather back Vautour of the two, but I do feel this is a race to fire a couple of each way bullets at double figure price horses.
I particularly like Gilgamboa should he line up for AP and JP. He was a smooth winner of the Boylesports.com hurdle at Leopardstown last time out, travelling very sweetly throughout before asserting close home under Mark Walsh. We will find out this weekend which race he goes for (this or the County Hurdle) but hopefully they will choose this race as he has the same pull factors as Vautour in terms of ground, field size, stamina and jockey.
Finally, Garde La Victoire might be worth a small each way bet as well if you can excuse his last run because of the tacky soft ground at Kempton, then he is no 33/1 chance. He has form closely tied in with the likes of Ballyalton and Regal Encore, both horses I rate very highly plus his narrow defeat behind Ballyalton at Cheltenham proves he acts at the course.

As for the others, I don't think Josses Hill is quite ready for this given his profile, plus he can make the odd bad error. Wicklow Brave has been tipped up by many for this but his jumping left plenty to be desired last time. Splash Of Ginge needs softer ground to be seen to best effect and Vaniteux although very impressive visually at Doncaster last time out, may not find much off the bridle if asked. Sgt Reckless and Un Ace both have small chances at big odds too.

2.05 The Irish Independent Arkle:

Can Rock On Ruby win again at Cheltenham?

An intriguing renewal of the Arkle with two past Cheltenham winners towards the top of the market. Champagne Fever is the favourite and to be honest, I think he will be very hard to beat. Although beaten by Defy Logic over Christmas, Ruby Walsh was arguably guilty of getting into an unnecessary pace battle with him, forcing his bad error two out and leaving him no chance of catching Defy Logic thereafter. He schooled well after racing at Leopardstown and don't forget, he's won at the last two Festivals so will be extremely hard to beat. Rock On Ruby hasn't had enough of a test of fences yet to be clear as to whether he is as good over fences as he was hurdles, beating a total of two horses in two runs over fences. He will however relish the good ground and has a very good record at Cheltenham, but personally, there isn't enough for me to back him at around 9/2.
I couldn't have Dodging Bullets given his record last spring where he completely lost his form, but I may be completely wrong with that. Trifolium is the biggest threat to Champagne Fever to me, but I will stick with Champagne Fever to fend him off up the hill for a win perspective.
On the each way side of things, I fear that although Valdez was good last time, that he isn't quite this good, likewise Ted Veale who has struggled against the likes of Trifolium all season. Grandouet has an in and out profile both at Cheltenham and over fences which make him tough to judge, but he is overpriced if he can return to his form of a quarter of a length defeat behind Hinterland at Sandown at the start of December. Arnaud is another who could go well at a price, considering all his best form is on good ground.

2.40 Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase:

Ackertac going down narrowly to Triolo D'Alene last season

A race that I will have a more clear view on once the final declarations come out on Monday, although there is a horse entered that I fancy strongly. He is a big price, but I feel Ackertac could go well for Tim Vaughan after his excellent second place at the Festival last year behind Rajdhani Express. Course form is so important at Cheltenham, and this lad has lots of it, winning at the April meeting after that second place at 66/1. His mark has dropped a few pounds this season after running below par on desperate ground which he doesn't like, so I think he can be a real player at 33/1. Alfie Sherrin would be another I'll be backing should he get into the race after winning it two years ago. I don't fancy Hadrian's Approach at all as I don't like his jumping in a big field.

3.20: Champion Hurdle:

The New One was electric in the 2013 Neptune Novices Hurdle

What a race we have to look forward to here! Hurricane Fly, the dual champion is back again and as usual has been winning the Grade 1s at Leopardstown through the season, beating Our Conor and Jezki twice. Although he is probably less effective at Cheltenham than Leopardstown, it doesn't mean he doesn't act here which is quite obvious with 2 Champion Hurdles on the mantlepiece. My Tent Or Yours and The New One are very closely matched on the Christmas Hurdle form in which My Tent Or Yours mowed down The New One after he made a horlicks of the last hurdle. Now many people have views about the outcome of that race had The New One not made that mistake, but I personally feel that he would have won had he not made the error, but I understand the other side of the argument. The New One has a very good Cheltenham record and I am confident that he is the one to beat and I'm certain he will beat My Tent Or Yours in a battle up the hill. Our Conor is a huge danger given how easily he won the Triumph Hurdle previously and his trainer Dessie Hughes being adamant that he will be prepared for just one race only all season and it is this race. Jezki needs two and a half miles and I would be intrigued if Un De Sceaux turned up, although he has it to do.
Finally, Melodic Rendezvous won't get his ground and is likely to be outpaced. In summary, I am sweet on The New One, with Our Conor the chief threat, together with Un De Sceaux should he run.

4.00 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle:

Can she make it 6?

This race is all about Quevega and it is very hard to see her being beaten if she is at her best. Only a few appeal to me each way and they are Sirene D'Ainay and Down Ace but I think this is a race to watch and admire a brilliant mare making Cheltenham history.

4.40 Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase:

Foxrock has a huge chance for owner Barry Connell

I don't have a great deal to offer here apart from that I think Foxrock will be very hard to beat for Barry Connell, Ted and Katie Walsh. Katie has a lot of Cheltenham experience and has ridden a few winners at the course over the years, and on a day where Ruby is likely to have at least two winners, this looks a good opportunity for more Walsh celebrations. Shotgun Paddy has slight jumping concerns, but if you want one at a really big price, Beeves could go close for Donald McCain.

5.15: Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase:

Manyriverstocross (left) giving Oscar Whisky a race at Sandown last time

A fiercely competitive race to end the card but it does feature one of my lays of the meeting. That is Pendra, who is a horse that has been overhyped from the very start, with his wins in his career coming at Plumpton (x2), Carlisle, Lingfield and Huntingdon, all middle of the road tracks. He ran well on bottomless ground to be second in the Tolworth Hurdle but ran a shocker in the Coral Cup last season and terribly last time out at Ascot. He is effectively a disappointment considering all the chat. His trainer Charlie Longsdon hasn't had a Festival winner yet and is just 1-67 in all at the course.
Manyriverstocross however is one I like the most here, particularly after his trainer said that he was his best chance of a winner all week. He gave Oscar Whisky something to think about in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown last time, and has plenty of good form at Cheltenham, including finishing third in the County Hurdle last year. I'm certain he will be in the shake up.
Baby Mix and Buywise could both go well at decent prices.

Fingers crossed we can start the week off well, find a winner and a bit of value.

Keep in touch with me on Twitter @willbowler2k12 or post a comment below.
Will