Now time to preview the bottom half of the field for Friday's classic on those testing downs at Epsom.
NAYARRA: Nayarra is a filly who I think is going to be campaigned in these sort of races for the rest of the season, without ever going to be quite good enough to seriously figure in one. She has won a Group 1 in Italy, but was midfield in the Guineas, given a 8 length beating by Coquet at Goodwood last week and before those, got beat by Esentepe, which is plainly not good enough to figure here, despite her trainer having his first Classic winner last week.
SHIROCCO STAR: Shirocco Star went down in plenty of notebooks after a promising debut second at Nottingham, before breaking her maiden tag by winning at Newbury. She reappeared with a solid short head defeat at that track again, beating 1000 Guineas runner up Starscope into third. The biggest problem for me is the trip, I personally don't think she'll stay the mile and a half, but I might be wrong, and if I am, she could easily outrun her odds.
THE FUGUE: The Fugue is a filly that John Gosden has always said would improve when she went up in trip. She won her maiden at Newmarket well last back-end, before being unlucky in running in the Guineas, being struck into finishing 4th with a nasty cut to her leg. Then she was impressive only 10 days later when we saw her win the Musidora over 2 furlongs further at York. Again, she is up another 2 furlongs here, seems very well balanced and for connections who are very reliable in big races, must go very close here. To add to that, she is top rated too.
TOPTEMPO: Toptempo is the only maiden in the field, after failing to finish in the first 2 in all her three starts, two in maidens and one in listed company. She has way too much on her plate here.
TWIRL: Twirl is another candidate for a front runner in this contest, but on all known form to date, doesn't have enough to figure here. She has been beaten in Listed and Group company, and being easily desposed of by The Fugue at York last time. She may run well up to a point but I think eventually, she will find this too hot to handle.
VOW: Vow is a filly that has shown plenty in her two wins to date to suggest a prominent place in the market here. She won from a seemingly impossible position at Newbury on her debut, following up in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield last time, beating Colima comfortably despite showing green-ness. That would certainly concern any backers of Vow as showing any signs of being un-genuine going to Epsom, might find her out. The trainers record is remarkable, 2 from 2 in Epsom classics including Dancing Rain last year. She has claims, but plenty of small issues so I'll let her run and if she wins, she wins.
WAS: She was dissapointing last time, and is another contender for a front runner out of the Ballydoyle sextet. When she was bought, she was the most expensive yearling purchased in Europe, so the idea of running at this level was maybe anticipated from an early point. Seamie Heffernan is one of the best tacticians around for me, so could run a big race, but it's not to easy to be confident on it.
OVERALL: A really competitive renewal which has a lot of different angles and potential viewpoints to it. I want to be against both Maybe and Vow at the prices, both with doubts that might outweigh the positives come the day. I think The Fugue is the most likely winner, and Kissed if she ran, would be very closely matched with her. At bigger prices, Colima is a strong each way selection for connections who won this with Look Here in the past at big odds. Betterbetterbetter is another I like at a huge price for a small each way bet if running from the front.
ADVISED: 2pt WIN The Fugue
2pts E/W Kissed and Colima
1pt E/W Betterbetterbetter
Good Luck and enjoy the race
Will
or @willbowler2k12 on Twitter
Thursday 31 May 2012
The Oaks-Horse by Horse Guide 1-7
This year more than most others, the Oaks looks an absolute cracker. Hopefully this horse by horse guide can help to find the winner for the 4.05 on Friday.
BETTERBETTERBETTER: Betterbetterbetter looks to be one of the lower numbers of the O'Brien's sextet, with Colm O'Donoghue aboard. She has the pedigree to challenge, being by Galileo, an impressive Derby winner on quick ground himself. She has the potential to be like plenty of O'Brien big priced placed runners in the Epsom classics in the past, she was caught by a mudlark in the Cheshire Oaks last time, which wouldn't have happened on faster ground, therefore she wouldn't have been the price she is now. If she leads, which is highly likely, she could run a stormer.
COLIMA: Colima ran a better race than people thought at Lingfield last time, when held up and finishing a very good second behind Vow, who we'll touch on later. She has been very highly regarded by her trainer throughout, convinced that as she wasn't fully ready to do herself justice there, and will come on a tonne for it. I think she could possibly finish ahead of Vow this time, as she looked less ready and she looks very well balanced in the way she runs and with the big difference in price, she looks a very decent each way selection for this contest.
COQUET: Coquet was a suprise winner for her trainer last week, when he said he would be suprised if she was fit enough to do herself justice, but she certainly was, galloping on strongly to hold on. I would be suprised if she was to figure here, especially as she looks to me anyway, to be the stable second string. She appears to be either a Listed or Group 3 filly as opposed to a very high class Group 1 filly, so I would probably on balance leave her out of it.
DEVOTION: She is definitely the least likely to figure of any in the race, despite Richard Hughes being booked, has been well beat in Listed, Group 3 and Group 1 company, which is plainly just not good enough in this.
KAILANI: Kailani is the only filly to be supplemented for this contest, which is certainly not a negative, remember the Arc! She was impressive at Newmarket on soft ground, albeit in a lower grade, but they seem pretty confident that she will go on the ground. Also, the track might be a slight issue, only won at Yarmouth and Newmarket. She is by Monsun, sire to Manduro and Shirocco, who won a Coronation Cup over C&D, so may go well, I would just prefer a bit more to be on offer.
KISSED: Anyone who has seen me on Twitter will know how much I like Kissed. She was my idea of a Oaks ante post bet before she won at Navan last time, which lead to her getting hammered in the market to favourtism at one stage. She has a great pedigree, meaning she will stay the trip, looks an incredibly well balanced filly, which is massive around Epsom but the only problem is, will she run. The issue is the ease in the ground not being there, but I don't see the problem as clearly. She is by Galileo, a good to firm Derby winner after winning only Soft or Heavy ground races before, is a sister to Pour Moi, a Derby winner last year on quick ground, and straight after Navan, Joseph O'Brien said "you never know till you try but I can't see her not going on better ground". I think she'll run anyway, and Ryan Moore up, will be very, very high up my list.
MAYBE: Maybe was a very well backed favourite for the 1000 Guineas before finishing 3rd, and an ultimately disappointing 10 length beating to a stablemate who was comfortably beaten in the Irish equivalent last week and the 2nd got firmly put into its place by Shirocco Star in a weaker race at Newbury afterwards. Again, the money is down, but she's never gone beyond a mile, therefore is going to be ridden with that in mind by a relative Epsom novice in Joseph O'Brien, and personally, I thought she was fully geared up for Newmarket and didn't win, and think she is way too short here at around 5/2, in a race where she seems to have lots of chinks in her armour.
So that's horses 1 to 7 dealt with, watch out soon for horses 8 down to 14.
Will
or on Twitter @willbowler2k12
BETTERBETTERBETTER: Betterbetterbetter looks to be one of the lower numbers of the O'Brien's sextet, with Colm O'Donoghue aboard. She has the pedigree to challenge, being by Galileo, an impressive Derby winner on quick ground himself. She has the potential to be like plenty of O'Brien big priced placed runners in the Epsom classics in the past, she was caught by a mudlark in the Cheshire Oaks last time, which wouldn't have happened on faster ground, therefore she wouldn't have been the price she is now. If she leads, which is highly likely, she could run a stormer.
COLIMA: Colima ran a better race than people thought at Lingfield last time, when held up and finishing a very good second behind Vow, who we'll touch on later. She has been very highly regarded by her trainer throughout, convinced that as she wasn't fully ready to do herself justice there, and will come on a tonne for it. I think she could possibly finish ahead of Vow this time, as she looked less ready and she looks very well balanced in the way she runs and with the big difference in price, she looks a very decent each way selection for this contest.
COQUET: Coquet was a suprise winner for her trainer last week, when he said he would be suprised if she was fit enough to do herself justice, but she certainly was, galloping on strongly to hold on. I would be suprised if she was to figure here, especially as she looks to me anyway, to be the stable second string. She appears to be either a Listed or Group 3 filly as opposed to a very high class Group 1 filly, so I would probably on balance leave her out of it.
DEVOTION: She is definitely the least likely to figure of any in the race, despite Richard Hughes being booked, has been well beat in Listed, Group 3 and Group 1 company, which is plainly just not good enough in this.
KAILANI: Kailani is the only filly to be supplemented for this contest, which is certainly not a negative, remember the Arc! She was impressive at Newmarket on soft ground, albeit in a lower grade, but they seem pretty confident that she will go on the ground. Also, the track might be a slight issue, only won at Yarmouth and Newmarket. She is by Monsun, sire to Manduro and Shirocco, who won a Coronation Cup over C&D, so may go well, I would just prefer a bit more to be on offer.
KISSED: Anyone who has seen me on Twitter will know how much I like Kissed. She was my idea of a Oaks ante post bet before she won at Navan last time, which lead to her getting hammered in the market to favourtism at one stage. She has a great pedigree, meaning she will stay the trip, looks an incredibly well balanced filly, which is massive around Epsom but the only problem is, will she run. The issue is the ease in the ground not being there, but I don't see the problem as clearly. She is by Galileo, a good to firm Derby winner after winning only Soft or Heavy ground races before, is a sister to Pour Moi, a Derby winner last year on quick ground, and straight after Navan, Joseph O'Brien said "you never know till you try but I can't see her not going on better ground". I think she'll run anyway, and Ryan Moore up, will be very, very high up my list.
MAYBE: Maybe was a very well backed favourite for the 1000 Guineas before finishing 3rd, and an ultimately disappointing 10 length beating to a stablemate who was comfortably beaten in the Irish equivalent last week and the 2nd got firmly put into its place by Shirocco Star in a weaker race at Newbury afterwards. Again, the money is down, but she's never gone beyond a mile, therefore is going to be ridden with that in mind by a relative Epsom novice in Joseph O'Brien, and personally, I thought she was fully geared up for Newmarket and didn't win, and think she is way too short here at around 5/2, in a race where she seems to have lots of chinks in her armour.
So that's horses 1 to 7 dealt with, watch out soon for horses 8 down to 14.
Will
or on Twitter @willbowler2k12
Saturday 26 May 2012
This evening's action 26/05/12
Tonight is host to two meetings, with Newbury and Lingfield, who race on the all weather and the turf. Newbury in Berkshire host a 6 race card with the usual big fields and competitive action to boot. They start with a Amateur Riders Handicap at 6.10, and with 15 runners due to the absence of Golden Flash, still represents some value in my selection. I like James Pollard, who used to be a bit of a rogue, but is now very honest under the handling of Bernard Llewellyn, and has had success mixing hurdling and the flat in recent times. He has a good rider aboard and looks to have a good each way chance at 12/1 at the time of writing. The main danger would be Muftarres. In the 6.45, the long distance traveller, Tim Easterby, who has Maven in the first, looks to have big claims with Peep N Creep, who made a pleasing debut and is sure to come on for the run judging by her trainers record. I would be interested each way as opposed to win.
My final selection at Newbury is in the following race again, at 7.15, where I like John Biscuit for Andrew Balding at an each way price. He made a winning debut, and performed with great credit on seasonal debut last year, and has now slipped to a better mark, so should run his race.
Over at Lingfield, they play host to a lot of top jockeys coming from afternoon meetings and a 6 race card with 3 on the turf and 3 on the all weather. My first focus race is the 7.00, a turf sprint handicap, where I like the chances of a couple each way. Desert Strike has become a little frustrating, in finding a turn of foot way too late in his races, but if more prominent tactics were adopted here, and Ryan Moore a rare booking for Charlie Hills, could go very close. Whitecrest is the other of interest, for a yard who have hit a bit of form this week, a course and distance winner last term, has the benefit of a run, and Eddie Ahern would lead to a very bold show to be expected.
The 8.10 is a maiden for 3 year olds and over, where Hill Street really should score, after a good second last time at Kempton. But the one to watch is most certainly Caskelana, who was bought for 600,000 euros and a full sister to Age Of Aquarius, who incidently won the Lingfield Derby Trial a few years ago. She is difficult to weigh up, the negatives being the yard form, and a mile being a bit sharp. The minimum is to watch her tonight, win or lose and take a view from then on.
The final race at 8.40 is the race for me though. You know my feelings about David Lanigan's 3 year olds this season and the stats back the confidence up. He is 6-15 with 3yo's with a £22 level stakes profit this season, and to back up the chance of Tis Rock 'N' Roll tonight, is 5-9 on the all weather with a £25 profit this season. The horse in question tonight is Tis Rock 'N' Roll, who has three runs in maidens to his name, showing promise without being flashy about it, and seems to have found a suitable start in handicaps, a Class 6 and a step up to a mile and a quarter. He'd be tonights banker.
Good Luck with whatever you decide to do
Will
Or on Twitter @willbowler2k12
ADVISED: 1pt E/W James Pollard 6.10 Newb
2pts E/W Peep N Creep 6.45 Newb
1.5pts E/W John Biscuit 7.15 Newb
1pt E/W Desert Strike/Whitecrest 7.00 Ling
4pts WIN Tis Rock 'N' Roll 8.40 Ling
My final selection at Newbury is in the following race again, at 7.15, where I like John Biscuit for Andrew Balding at an each way price. He made a winning debut, and performed with great credit on seasonal debut last year, and has now slipped to a better mark, so should run his race.
Over at Lingfield, they play host to a lot of top jockeys coming from afternoon meetings and a 6 race card with 3 on the turf and 3 on the all weather. My first focus race is the 7.00, a turf sprint handicap, where I like the chances of a couple each way. Desert Strike has become a little frustrating, in finding a turn of foot way too late in his races, but if more prominent tactics were adopted here, and Ryan Moore a rare booking for Charlie Hills, could go very close. Whitecrest is the other of interest, for a yard who have hit a bit of form this week, a course and distance winner last term, has the benefit of a run, and Eddie Ahern would lead to a very bold show to be expected.
The 8.10 is a maiden for 3 year olds and over, where Hill Street really should score, after a good second last time at Kempton. But the one to watch is most certainly Caskelana, who was bought for 600,000 euros and a full sister to Age Of Aquarius, who incidently won the Lingfield Derby Trial a few years ago. She is difficult to weigh up, the negatives being the yard form, and a mile being a bit sharp. The minimum is to watch her tonight, win or lose and take a view from then on.
The final race at 8.40 is the race for me though. You know my feelings about David Lanigan's 3 year olds this season and the stats back the confidence up. He is 6-15 with 3yo's with a £22 level stakes profit this season, and to back up the chance of Tis Rock 'N' Roll tonight, is 5-9 on the all weather with a £25 profit this season. The horse in question tonight is Tis Rock 'N' Roll, who has three runs in maidens to his name, showing promise without being flashy about it, and seems to have found a suitable start in handicaps, a Class 6 and a step up to a mile and a quarter. He'd be tonights banker.
Good Luck with whatever you decide to do
Will
Or on Twitter @willbowler2k12
ADVISED: 1pt E/W James Pollard 6.10 Newb
2pts E/W Peep N Creep 6.45 Newb
1.5pts E/W John Biscuit 7.15 Newb
1pt E/W Desert Strike/Whitecrest 7.00 Ling
4pts WIN Tis Rock 'N' Roll 8.40 Ling
Friday 25 May 2012
My Afternoon thoughts for 26/05/12
Saturday brings an all flat racing Saturday for the first time for a long time, with top class fare from York, Goodwood, Haydock and The Curragh, plus lesser meetings from Chester in the afternoon, with Newbury and Lingfield going in the evening which I'll do a separate piece for on the day.
We start at Goodwood, and with two good Listed prizes, is sure to get a big crowd in the sunshine on the Sussex downs. I like Grumeti strongly in the 3.20, a very good novice hurdler last season for Alan King, and reverted to the Flat last time out at Ascot, where he saw off Local Hero, and with Ryan Moore aboard here, off a revised mark of 89, could easily take advantage.
I'll also include Kimberella in the maiden at 3.55, who caught the eye last time in a decent Newmarket maiden on Guineas weekend which has thrown up many winners in the past, and with 7 furlongs rather than 5, and experience, would be a prime contender for a small win play.
Next is Haydock, and although I like Montaser in the opener, he won't be a selection, but Farlow (4.40) certainly will. I expressed him as a serious horse to follow before winning at Donny last time and I think 7 furlongs will bring even more improvement. We may get a better price here too as the Varian horse may go off very short. He is an each way cert. The other selection is one that leaps out the page, Anderiego in the 4.05. David O'Meara has a reputation of revitalising horses that come to him, and this one has winning form in Ireland, and shaped with loads of promise on British debut before fading in the final furlong, and on a sounder surface should hold a chance, just get an early price because I think he'll be well backed.
At York, anyone reading to here will think I'm absolutely loopy by tipping Calico Cat each way in the LLP Grand Cup (3.10). He is unexposed, ran a cracker at Chester on debut and followed up with a game win in a maiden at Thirsk. The main reason is value, Cavalryman has never won in Britain from 8 attempts so is a lay for me, and all the rest are out of form, bar Gulf Of Naples, who's had hard races recently so at big odds, Calico Cat each way would be a small play.
The best play there though is Billyrayvalentine of George Bakers' in the 4.50 with Frankie aboard. He was progressive last season and Mr Baker holds him in high regard, has plenty of dash and is drawn well too, not many negatives so would be a very confident each way tip.
Just one at the Curragh, which is Chicago in the 4.50 of Aidan O'Brien's. Devastating last time on a sound surface and should repeat again here.
Chester also go tomorrow afternoon and sure to be a big crowd on the Roodee. A trappy card where I like Iulus in the 4.35. He is a horse I've been waiting to run and a small each way play tomorrow would be advised and to watch afterwards through the season. The other would be Mandy Lexi in the opening 2.25 maiden. He has a track short head beating to his name, and if handling different underfoot conditions, should go very close indeed here.
Good Luck
Will
ADVISED: 2pts WIN Grumeti 3.20 GWood
2pts E/W Kimberella 3.55 GWood
3pts E/W Farlow 4.40 Hdck
1pt E/W Anderiego 4.05 Hdck
0.5pt E/W Calico Cat 3.10 York
2pts E/W Billyrayvalentine 4.50 York
5pts WIN Chicago 4.50 Curragh
0.5pt E/W Iulus 4.35 Cster
3pts WIN Mandy Lexi 2.25 Cster
We start at Goodwood, and with two good Listed prizes, is sure to get a big crowd in the sunshine on the Sussex downs. I like Grumeti strongly in the 3.20, a very good novice hurdler last season for Alan King, and reverted to the Flat last time out at Ascot, where he saw off Local Hero, and with Ryan Moore aboard here, off a revised mark of 89, could easily take advantage.
I'll also include Kimberella in the maiden at 3.55, who caught the eye last time in a decent Newmarket maiden on Guineas weekend which has thrown up many winners in the past, and with 7 furlongs rather than 5, and experience, would be a prime contender for a small win play.
Next is Haydock, and although I like Montaser in the opener, he won't be a selection, but Farlow (4.40) certainly will. I expressed him as a serious horse to follow before winning at Donny last time and I think 7 furlongs will bring even more improvement. We may get a better price here too as the Varian horse may go off very short. He is an each way cert. The other selection is one that leaps out the page, Anderiego in the 4.05. David O'Meara has a reputation of revitalising horses that come to him, and this one has winning form in Ireland, and shaped with loads of promise on British debut before fading in the final furlong, and on a sounder surface should hold a chance, just get an early price because I think he'll be well backed.
At York, anyone reading to here will think I'm absolutely loopy by tipping Calico Cat each way in the LLP Grand Cup (3.10). He is unexposed, ran a cracker at Chester on debut and followed up with a game win in a maiden at Thirsk. The main reason is value, Cavalryman has never won in Britain from 8 attempts so is a lay for me, and all the rest are out of form, bar Gulf Of Naples, who's had hard races recently so at big odds, Calico Cat each way would be a small play.
The best play there though is Billyrayvalentine of George Bakers' in the 4.50 with Frankie aboard. He was progressive last season and Mr Baker holds him in high regard, has plenty of dash and is drawn well too, not many negatives so would be a very confident each way tip.
Just one at the Curragh, which is Chicago in the 4.50 of Aidan O'Brien's. Devastating last time on a sound surface and should repeat again here.
Chester also go tomorrow afternoon and sure to be a big crowd on the Roodee. A trappy card where I like Iulus in the 4.35. He is a horse I've been waiting to run and a small each way play tomorrow would be advised and to watch afterwards through the season. The other would be Mandy Lexi in the opening 2.25 maiden. He has a track short head beating to his name, and if handling different underfoot conditions, should go very close indeed here.
Good Luck
Will
ADVISED: 2pts WIN Grumeti 3.20 GWood
2pts E/W Kimberella 3.55 GWood
3pts E/W Farlow 4.40 Hdck
1pt E/W Anderiego 4.05 Hdck
0.5pt E/W Calico Cat 3.10 York
2pts E/W Billyrayvalentine 4.50 York
5pts WIN Chicago 4.50 Curragh
0.5pt E/W Iulus 4.35 Cster
3pts WIN Mandy Lexi 2.25 Cster
Friday 18 May 2012
My 2-A-Meeting, 19/05/2012
Tomorrow's fare has Flat racing from Newbury, where the reappearance of Frankel will be the star attraction, Newmarket, Thirsk and an evening meeting from Doncaster. On the jumps, Bangor in the afternoon and Uttoxeter, my local track, in the evening.
I am going to Newmarket tomorrow, and my two there are High Jinx (3.55) and Suraj (5.40). High Jinx created the impression that this 1m 6f would suit him a lot more than the fact he was outpaced over 10 furlongs last time. He could still be well handicapped. Suraj was very impressive with a 11 length demolition of a maiden field at Doncaster, and with an entry at Royal Ascot later in the season, looks sure to be a very progressive three year old this year, and as long as the track doesn't cause any issues, then she looks a bit of value at 4/1 at the time of writing.
Next is Newbury, a star studded card headed by Frankel, who won't be beaten in the Lockinge Stakes, but represents no value for this purpose. The two there are Ibicenco in the 2.00 and Hajras in the 3.05. Ibicenco is the leader on official ratings and represents the in-form duo of Fallon and Cumani. The other selection, Hajras, is a horse to follow. He is running in the London Gold Cup tomorrow and was impressive on ground he clearly didn't like at Ripon last time, getting up close home, is still unexposed and is fast becoming one of my favourite horses.
Thirsk is the only other afternoon flat meeting, and my two are Arctic Feeling in the 4.05 and Calico Cat 4.40. Arctic Feeling has showed improved form this season and represents the in form Richard Fahey team, on a track that should suit his fast early pace well, looks a good each way play. Calico Cat could not have created a better impression when finishing 3rd in a Listed race on debut, and even carrying extra weight as an older horse in a 3yo+ maiden, could easily score in an uncompetitive contest.
Doncaster race tomorrow night on the Flat, and I have two good each way shouts. Landesherr in the 6.10 is the first of them, showing improved form when a good second at Wolverhampton last time and has good claims here. Head Space in the 8.20 is the other selection, showing improved form for his new yard, with a return to 6 furlongs, looks overpriced at 16/1.
Over the obstacles at Bangor, a good card to entertain the usual strong crowd in North Wales. I like Golden Call who makes his chase debut in the beginners chase at 3.10. He is 2-2 at Bangor too, and Donald McCain barely goes a Bangor meeting without a winner. What A Laugh is the banker in the closing hunter chase, a really impressive winner there last time and really should win.
Uttoxeter finish the day with a competitive card, and I like Smalib Monterg in the 6.25 and Double Fortune in the 7.30. Smalib Monterg showed a lot of promise at Wincanton on British debut and stable debut, a yard who love a gamble and looks a good each way bet. Double Fortune makes its debut for Anthony Honeyball, a yard I really admire, and is pitched into a handicap first time, and a rise in trip should bring about the improvement required to win this.
Good Luck
Will
ADVISED: 3pts E/W High Jinx 3.55 NwMt
2pts WIN Suraj 5.40 NwMt
3pts E/W Hajras 3.05 NwB
1pt E/W Arctic Feeling 4.05 Thsk
1pt WIN Calico Cat 4.40 Thsk
2pts E/W Landesherr 6.10 Donc
0.5pt E/W Head Space 8.20 Donc
3pts WIN Golden Call 3.10 Ban
4pts WIN What A Laugh 5.30 Ban
3pts WIN Double Fortune 7.30 Uttox
I am going to Newmarket tomorrow, and my two there are High Jinx (3.55) and Suraj (5.40). High Jinx created the impression that this 1m 6f would suit him a lot more than the fact he was outpaced over 10 furlongs last time. He could still be well handicapped. Suraj was very impressive with a 11 length demolition of a maiden field at Doncaster, and with an entry at Royal Ascot later in the season, looks sure to be a very progressive three year old this year, and as long as the track doesn't cause any issues, then she looks a bit of value at 4/1 at the time of writing.
Next is Newbury, a star studded card headed by Frankel, who won't be beaten in the Lockinge Stakes, but represents no value for this purpose. The two there are Ibicenco in the 2.00 and Hajras in the 3.05. Ibicenco is the leader on official ratings and represents the in-form duo of Fallon and Cumani. The other selection, Hajras, is a horse to follow. He is running in the London Gold Cup tomorrow and was impressive on ground he clearly didn't like at Ripon last time, getting up close home, is still unexposed and is fast becoming one of my favourite horses.
Thirsk is the only other afternoon flat meeting, and my two are Arctic Feeling in the 4.05 and Calico Cat 4.40. Arctic Feeling has showed improved form this season and represents the in form Richard Fahey team, on a track that should suit his fast early pace well, looks a good each way play. Calico Cat could not have created a better impression when finishing 3rd in a Listed race on debut, and even carrying extra weight as an older horse in a 3yo+ maiden, could easily score in an uncompetitive contest.
Doncaster race tomorrow night on the Flat, and I have two good each way shouts. Landesherr in the 6.10 is the first of them, showing improved form when a good second at Wolverhampton last time and has good claims here. Head Space in the 8.20 is the other selection, showing improved form for his new yard, with a return to 6 furlongs, looks overpriced at 16/1.
Over the obstacles at Bangor, a good card to entertain the usual strong crowd in North Wales. I like Golden Call who makes his chase debut in the beginners chase at 3.10. He is 2-2 at Bangor too, and Donald McCain barely goes a Bangor meeting without a winner. What A Laugh is the banker in the closing hunter chase, a really impressive winner there last time and really should win.
Uttoxeter finish the day with a competitive card, and I like Smalib Monterg in the 6.25 and Double Fortune in the 7.30. Smalib Monterg showed a lot of promise at Wincanton on British debut and stable debut, a yard who love a gamble and looks a good each way bet. Double Fortune makes its debut for Anthony Honeyball, a yard I really admire, and is pitched into a handicap first time, and a rise in trip should bring about the improvement required to win this.
Good Luck
Will
ADVISED: 3pts E/W High Jinx 3.55 NwMt
2pts WIN Suraj 5.40 NwMt
3pts E/W Hajras 3.05 NwB
1pt E/W Arctic Feeling 4.05 Thsk
1pt WIN Calico Cat 4.40 Thsk
2pts E/W Landesherr 6.10 Donc
0.5pt E/W Head Space 8.20 Donc
3pts WIN Golden Call 3.10 Ban
4pts WIN What A Laugh 5.30 Ban
3pts WIN Double Fortune 7.30 Uttox
Friday 11 May 2012
Channel 4 races, Saturday 12/05/12
Tomorrow gives Channel 4 viewers a mixture of flat and jumps, spread across 3 meetings, Haydock, Ascot and Lingfield. It should be an informative afternoon with plenty of horses sure to be going in many a notebook afterwards.
We start off with the Long Distance Handicap Hurdle over 3 miles at Haydock (2.00). Howizee was pretty devastating in the style of his win at Ayr last time out, but I feel a 13lb rise and on ground that would probably be a bit too soft for his liking, I would leave him. The one I could see running well at a big price is Bottman, who is back over hurdles after a poor round of jumping at the Festival, but before that had run really well there in January. He could run a mega race at a price. My selection is The Druid's Nephew, who I have followed all season with success, and a big run at Cheltenham behind Simonsig. He will appreciate conditions underfoot and is improving all the time, can't see him being far away.
Then to Lingfield for the Chartwell Fillies Stakes (2.10). I will stick to Fallen For You, who was impressive on her first try on Polytrack when beaten a mediocre field last time, but she is entered in the Coronation Stakes later in the season and definitely has a change of speed, which is great over 7 furlongs.
Then the first visit to Ascot, the Buckhounds Stakes at 2.20. I am going with the official figures here and Dawn Twister, who won very well at Ripon on his first outing in this country, for a yard who do well with German bred horses, especially on deep ground.
Back to leafy Lingfield for the Oaks Trial, although on the All Weather due to deluge of rain through the last two weeks, run at 2.40. Vow has to be respected but I will side with Colima. She will race closer to the pace and created a good impression when winning at Nottingham last backend. She also has a lot of big race entries, Oaks, Ribblesdale, Pretty Polly and Irish Oaks, and is sure to go well.
Back to Ascot for the 2.50 for a fillies handicap over a mile. I will go for Shesastar, who seemed to appreciate the softer ground when winning at Doncaster last season, and for a yard who albeit have been quiet on the winners front, bringing one runner to Ascot is rare, nearly as rare as the booking of Ryan Moore (2-11 for the yard). She has a good each way chance.
Lingfield's Derby Trial next up at 3.10. The two I can't wait to run are Ed De Gas and Main Sequence. Ed De Gas has shown plenty of ability to date, but I don't think he will be as good as Main Sequence further down the line. He showed signs of greeness, flashing his tail in the finish on all three wins, but still won 3 out of 3 and for a yard who I would recommend to follow their 3 year olds, with a very strong team, would be my selection.
Victoria Cup time at Ascot at 3.25. I would offer three against the field which are Rodrigo De Torres, King Of Jazz and Global Village. Rodrigo De Torres has been in good form up the North and represents in-form connections who don't often come this far. King Of Jazz caught the eye last time at Doncaster and with a clearer passage is well handicapped and could be good value. Global Village ran very well at Newbury last time, risen 2lbs but with Tadhg O'Shea aboard (1-4 for yard), a proven ground specialist and has to go well. They could all be small each way plays.
The Swinton Hurdle, now known as the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles with 20 runners flying round Haydock at 3.40. I like All The Aces, for connections who have won the last two renewals of this race and a horse who I feel much prefers an easy ground 2 miles than the 2 and a half miles he has encountered recently. His mark has dropped as a result and I think he can take advantage of the handicappers' good nature.
Good Luck and Happy Viewing!!
Will
ADVISED:
2pts E/W The Druid's Nephew (2.00 Haydock)
1pt WIN Fallen For You (2.10 Lingfield)
2pts E/W Colima (2.40 Lingfield)
1pt E/W Shesastar (2.50 Ascot)
2pts WIN Main Sequence (3.10 Lingfield)
0.5pt E/W Rodrigo De Torres/ King Of Jazz/ Global Village (3.25 Ascot)
2pts E/W All The Aces (3.40 Haydock)
We start off with the Long Distance Handicap Hurdle over 3 miles at Haydock (2.00). Howizee was pretty devastating in the style of his win at Ayr last time out, but I feel a 13lb rise and on ground that would probably be a bit too soft for his liking, I would leave him. The one I could see running well at a big price is Bottman, who is back over hurdles after a poor round of jumping at the Festival, but before that had run really well there in January. He could run a mega race at a price. My selection is The Druid's Nephew, who I have followed all season with success, and a big run at Cheltenham behind Simonsig. He will appreciate conditions underfoot and is improving all the time, can't see him being far away.
Then to Lingfield for the Chartwell Fillies Stakes (2.10). I will stick to Fallen For You, who was impressive on her first try on Polytrack when beaten a mediocre field last time, but she is entered in the Coronation Stakes later in the season and definitely has a change of speed, which is great over 7 furlongs.
Then the first visit to Ascot, the Buckhounds Stakes at 2.20. I am going with the official figures here and Dawn Twister, who won very well at Ripon on his first outing in this country, for a yard who do well with German bred horses, especially on deep ground.
Back to leafy Lingfield for the Oaks Trial, although on the All Weather due to deluge of rain through the last two weeks, run at 2.40. Vow has to be respected but I will side with Colima. She will race closer to the pace and created a good impression when winning at Nottingham last backend. She also has a lot of big race entries, Oaks, Ribblesdale, Pretty Polly and Irish Oaks, and is sure to go well.
Back to Ascot for the 2.50 for a fillies handicap over a mile. I will go for Shesastar, who seemed to appreciate the softer ground when winning at Doncaster last season, and for a yard who albeit have been quiet on the winners front, bringing one runner to Ascot is rare, nearly as rare as the booking of Ryan Moore (2-11 for the yard). She has a good each way chance.
Lingfield's Derby Trial next up at 3.10. The two I can't wait to run are Ed De Gas and Main Sequence. Ed De Gas has shown plenty of ability to date, but I don't think he will be as good as Main Sequence further down the line. He showed signs of greeness, flashing his tail in the finish on all three wins, but still won 3 out of 3 and for a yard who I would recommend to follow their 3 year olds, with a very strong team, would be my selection.
Victoria Cup time at Ascot at 3.25. I would offer three against the field which are Rodrigo De Torres, King Of Jazz and Global Village. Rodrigo De Torres has been in good form up the North and represents in-form connections who don't often come this far. King Of Jazz caught the eye last time at Doncaster and with a clearer passage is well handicapped and could be good value. Global Village ran very well at Newbury last time, risen 2lbs but with Tadhg O'Shea aboard (1-4 for yard), a proven ground specialist and has to go well. They could all be small each way plays.
The Swinton Hurdle, now known as the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles with 20 runners flying round Haydock at 3.40. I like All The Aces, for connections who have won the last two renewals of this race and a horse who I feel much prefers an easy ground 2 miles than the 2 and a half miles he has encountered recently. His mark has dropped as a result and I think he can take advantage of the handicappers' good nature.
Good Luck and Happy Viewing!!
Will
ADVISED:
2pts E/W The Druid's Nephew (2.00 Haydock)
1pt WIN Fallen For You (2.10 Lingfield)
2pts E/W Colima (2.40 Lingfield)
1pt E/W Shesastar (2.50 Ascot)
2pts WIN Main Sequence (3.10 Lingfield)
0.5pt E/W Rodrigo De Torres/ King Of Jazz/ Global Village (3.25 Ascot)
2pts E/W All The Aces (3.40 Haydock)
Sunday 6 May 2012
Other Selections on 1000 Guineas Day
We will start off with Newmarkets' supporting card, kicked off at 2.05 with a mile and a half handicap. I like the chances of Rock A Doodle Doo here, who won well at Ascot last year the last time Martin Dwyer was aboard, then ran well despite trouble in running at Royal Ascot, and before those, he might have won first time out last season if it wasn't for trouble in running at Epsom. He has to go well, as a strong each way selection if it stays 4 places.
At 3.50, there is a devilishly difficult 6 furlong handicap, with about 25 runners charging down the Rowley Mile. I am going to chance Escape To Glory each way, I've followed him this season, fancying strongly last time where he was produce a little late to lose by a short head, and with a strong finish again, and a low weight, may be worth a look at around 25/1.
In the lucky last at 5.35, a 10 furlong handicap for 3 year olds, I like the chances of Sparkling Portrait, who won in determined fashion at Beverley last time, is race fit, and will be overpriced here and you will get a very good run for your money.
Now we turn our attentions to Salisbury, where Richard Hughes is the star in attendance. In the feature race there today, the City Bowl at 2.20, I like Albert Bridge, who looks progressive for a yard I really like in Ralph Beckett. On a Stable Tour recently, he said this horse "needs soft ground and is getting better with experience". I think he will be very competitive here.
In the following Conditions race at 2.55, I think Tassel is the one to beat, but I do like Edged Out as an each way option. She got the hang of things late on at Newbury on debut, finishing really well, and with the dead 8 runners, I would hard pressed to leave her out of calculations.
Finally for Salisbury in the 4.45 race, I am currently following Haaf A Sixpence. He has definitely improved lately and looks very solid on the Polytrack, so I'm not to sure about Soft ground on the Turf but Ralph Beckett said in that Stable Tour that "he can win another one".
Now we go North of the Border to Hamilton. My first selection runs in the Tangerine Trees Conditions Stakes at 3.25. I really like Stonefield Flyer and think he good value here providing he has trained on. He ran really well at Royal Ascot and is the apple of trainer Keith Dalglieshs' eye. I think he'll win.
In the 5.10, my nap of the day is running. I really like Marhaba Malyoon, who was last seen running in the Derby and before that, the Lingfield Derby Trial. He has been off since then, but surely should be capable off a mark of 78 here, and is a long way for David Simcock to go. I can't see him out the three, and could easily rout these.
Good Luck to whatever you decide to do today & Enjoy
Will
ADVISED:
1pt E/W Rock A Doodle Doo 2.05 NMkt
0.5pt E/W Escape To Glory 3.50 NMkt
2pts E/W Sparkling Portrait 5.35 NMkt
1pt WIN Albert Bridge 2.20 Salisbury
2pts E/W Edged Out 2.55 Salisbury
3pts WIN Stonefield Flyer 3.25 Hamilton
4pts WIN Marhaba Malyoon 5.10 Hamilton
At 3.50, there is a devilishly difficult 6 furlong handicap, with about 25 runners charging down the Rowley Mile. I am going to chance Escape To Glory each way, I've followed him this season, fancying strongly last time where he was produce a little late to lose by a short head, and with a strong finish again, and a low weight, may be worth a look at around 25/1.
In the lucky last at 5.35, a 10 furlong handicap for 3 year olds, I like the chances of Sparkling Portrait, who won in determined fashion at Beverley last time, is race fit, and will be overpriced here and you will get a very good run for your money.
Now we turn our attentions to Salisbury, where Richard Hughes is the star in attendance. In the feature race there today, the City Bowl at 2.20, I like Albert Bridge, who looks progressive for a yard I really like in Ralph Beckett. On a Stable Tour recently, he said this horse "needs soft ground and is getting better with experience". I think he will be very competitive here.
In the following Conditions race at 2.55, I think Tassel is the one to beat, but I do like Edged Out as an each way option. She got the hang of things late on at Newbury on debut, finishing really well, and with the dead 8 runners, I would hard pressed to leave her out of calculations.
Finally for Salisbury in the 4.45 race, I am currently following Haaf A Sixpence. He has definitely improved lately and looks very solid on the Polytrack, so I'm not to sure about Soft ground on the Turf but Ralph Beckett said in that Stable Tour that "he can win another one".
Now we go North of the Border to Hamilton. My first selection runs in the Tangerine Trees Conditions Stakes at 3.25. I really like Stonefield Flyer and think he good value here providing he has trained on. He ran really well at Royal Ascot and is the apple of trainer Keith Dalglieshs' eye. I think he'll win.
In the 5.10, my nap of the day is running. I really like Marhaba Malyoon, who was last seen running in the Derby and before that, the Lingfield Derby Trial. He has been off since then, but surely should be capable off a mark of 78 here, and is a long way for David Simcock to go. I can't see him out the three, and could easily rout these.
Good Luck to whatever you decide to do today & Enjoy
Will
ADVISED:
1pt E/W Rock A Doodle Doo 2.05 NMkt
0.5pt E/W Escape To Glory 3.50 NMkt
2pts E/W Sparkling Portrait 5.35 NMkt
1pt WIN Albert Bridge 2.20 Salisbury
2pts E/W Edged Out 2.55 Salisbury
3pts WIN Stonefield Flyer 3.25 Hamilton
4pts WIN Marhaba Malyoon 5.10 Hamilton
Saturday 5 May 2012
1000 Guineas Preview
After the awesome start to the Classics with Camelots' weaving, determined and ultimately impressive win on Saturday, it all systems go for the fillies version only 24 hours later. Lets check them out in the same format as the 2000, but hopefully with more success.
MAYBE- YES OR NO?: To be honest, I would have to say she is definitely worth favouritism after a blemish free two year old campaign, in which she won at Royal Ascot in the Chesham, a listed race, before winning a Group 3, then a Group 2, and then winning a Group 1, the Moyglare Stud Stakes on her final start. She is hard to knock, with only slight concerns about the trip, in her first try at a mile, and maybe the dip might be a problem, but she wouldn't be one I'd be against with great confidence. She has be very, very competitive, but at the prices, I'm not quite sure.
WHAT ABOUT THE MARKET CHALLENGERS?:
We'll start with Mashoora, the French lead hope, who was very taking in the way she won her comeback, under a very cheeky Christophe Soumillon, but despite that, I have my worries. She may not have stayed the mile on her only previous try at the trip, and she has only competed at Group 3 level so far. I would bravely leave her out.
Next is Moonstone Magic, who was impressive at Newbury last time and has been supplemented for this, rather than going straight to the Irish Guineas. She has definite credentials if the ground was bottomless like both her wins to date, but her running on drying ground would be a big concern, despite the yard flying and her clearly having a lot of ability. Again, I would leave her alone on the prices.
Also in this section, the two Godolphin runners. It all surrounded which one Frankie would pick in the week leading up to this, and he has selected Lyric Of Light. She won a Group 2 and a Group 1 on the Rowley Mile on her last start, after Samitar, herself a very good yardstick, got first run on her into the dip, and is obviously very talented and I would definitely take her each way at 10/1.
As for Discourse, who won with ease on the July course in a Group 3 last year, has to go well too, but at the same price as her stablemate, I would leave her for Lyric Of Light.
Diala is the final one in this section, who was a narrow second to Lyric Of Light on debut, before routing a decent maiden field on the Rowley Mile on her second start, could have claims especially for a yard that don't put runners in Classics willy-nilly, as showed with Dancing Rain last year in the Oaks. May well suprise a few as she is unexposed.
ANY OUTSIDERS TO GO WELL?:
Lightening Pearl is a doubtful runner anyway, and because there is a big doubt regarding a mixture of trip and ground, despite a good two year old campaign at 6. She may be a sprinter in time. As for lively outsiders,I think there are 3 above 25/1 I could give a chance to. The first is Laugh Out Loud, who is very unexposed and no runs on turf to date, but has shown plenty of ability and may be overpriced around 40/1. I also can make a case for Starscope, what seems to be the Gosden second string, but ran 4th in the Nell Gwyn (7f), on a day where being with the pace was vital, she was right at the back before going on close home, beaten just a length. A mile will suit better and can go well at around 33/1. And finally Sunday Times, who has a chance of minor money despite running into some of these in the past. I do feel her future lies over a mile though.
Good Luck and enjoy
ADVISED:
2pts WIN Maybe
3pts E/W Lyric Of Light
1pt E/W Starscope
0.5pt E/W Laugh Out Loud
MAYBE- YES OR NO?: To be honest, I would have to say she is definitely worth favouritism after a blemish free two year old campaign, in which she won at Royal Ascot in the Chesham, a listed race, before winning a Group 3, then a Group 2, and then winning a Group 1, the Moyglare Stud Stakes on her final start. She is hard to knock, with only slight concerns about the trip, in her first try at a mile, and maybe the dip might be a problem, but she wouldn't be one I'd be against with great confidence. She has be very, very competitive, but at the prices, I'm not quite sure.
WHAT ABOUT THE MARKET CHALLENGERS?:
We'll start with Mashoora, the French lead hope, who was very taking in the way she won her comeback, under a very cheeky Christophe Soumillon, but despite that, I have my worries. She may not have stayed the mile on her only previous try at the trip, and she has only competed at Group 3 level so far. I would bravely leave her out.
Next is Moonstone Magic, who was impressive at Newbury last time and has been supplemented for this, rather than going straight to the Irish Guineas. She has definite credentials if the ground was bottomless like both her wins to date, but her running on drying ground would be a big concern, despite the yard flying and her clearly having a lot of ability. Again, I would leave her alone on the prices.
Also in this section, the two Godolphin runners. It all surrounded which one Frankie would pick in the week leading up to this, and he has selected Lyric Of Light. She won a Group 2 and a Group 1 on the Rowley Mile on her last start, after Samitar, herself a very good yardstick, got first run on her into the dip, and is obviously very talented and I would definitely take her each way at 10/1.
As for Discourse, who won with ease on the July course in a Group 3 last year, has to go well too, but at the same price as her stablemate, I would leave her for Lyric Of Light.
Diala is the final one in this section, who was a narrow second to Lyric Of Light on debut, before routing a decent maiden field on the Rowley Mile on her second start, could have claims especially for a yard that don't put runners in Classics willy-nilly, as showed with Dancing Rain last year in the Oaks. May well suprise a few as she is unexposed.
ANY OUTSIDERS TO GO WELL?:
Lightening Pearl is a doubtful runner anyway, and because there is a big doubt regarding a mixture of trip and ground, despite a good two year old campaign at 6. She may be a sprinter in time. As for lively outsiders,I think there are 3 above 25/1 I could give a chance to. The first is Laugh Out Loud, who is very unexposed and no runs on turf to date, but has shown plenty of ability and may be overpriced around 40/1. I also can make a case for Starscope, what seems to be the Gosden second string, but ran 4th in the Nell Gwyn (7f), on a day where being with the pace was vital, she was right at the back before going on close home, beaten just a length. A mile will suit better and can go well at around 33/1. And finally Sunday Times, who has a chance of minor money despite running into some of these in the past. I do feel her future lies over a mile though.
Good Luck and enjoy
ADVISED:
2pts WIN Maybe
3pts E/W Lyric Of Light
1pt E/W Starscope
0.5pt E/W Laugh Out Loud
Other selections 05/05/12
Back again to have a look everywhere else on Saturday. While start with the rest of Newmarket where I can't wait for the 2.30 Jockey Club Stakes, which has the makings of a classic. I think Meandre may be a bit short so will be watching with no definitive view. But a great one to watch. Another race to watch for later big races is the 4.55, Newmarket Stakes. I would have loved to see Swedish Sailor, but he misses another engagement, but still an intriguing race, with Frankel's brother Noble Mission the likely favourite. Michelangelo is a fascinating newcomer, a $550,000 purchase and related to a lot of very high profile names. Why go for Listed company on his debut, but John Gosden is so shrewd and will know what he wants to see.
The best bet for me at Newmarket after Abtaal is Eton Rifles in the Palace House (3.45) each way. He is still lightly raced for a seven year old, and changed hands for big money to Stuart Williams before winning at Fontainebleu last time. He has a good draw and is progressing well, so each way must go well.
At Goodwood, Vita Nova (2.15) is the star attraction, and I can't see her losing here. Unbeaten with Ian Mongan on and on seasonal debut and likes a bit of juice in the ground. Also, on the downs, I like the look of Raasekha in the Listed race (4.05), despite Neutrafa's presence. She ran well last time in is well regarded, and in this potentially weak race, with Esentepe near the head of the market, I would take her or Neutrafa each way, as they will prefer the ground as it is now.
A big day and a big crowd expected at Thirsk for one of their biggest days of the year, and I like a couple here too. Mon Brav in the 3.20 contest looks good value at 12/1. He is much better at this time of year, and with a good draw on a track he's won at twice, should be thereabouts. Also, the big race is the Thirsk Hunt Cup at 4.30, with the very warm order being Farrh for Godolphin. He is way too short and I'll go for Space War each way. He was 3rd in the race last year, when I was there and on him at 33's that day, he is 5lbs lower this year and should run well again.
Then to Uttoxeter, my local, for a decent 7 race card. I like Royaume Bleu quite strongly in the 5.20. This race is weak and I want to take on Bennys Mist, and this 7 year old seems the horse to do it with. He has always run well at the track and recieves nearly 2 stone from the favourite, and is a sure fire each way bet and a small win play too. Also, have a look at Out Of Nothing in the opener at 2.20. He caught most peoples eye at Chepstow, with the jockey getting a 10 day ban for not trying to get the best possible placing, and with Robert Thornton aboard, who's 1-2 for the yard in the last 5 seasons, could be very interesting.
The evening's fare is shared between Doncaster on the Flat and Hexham over the sticks. We'll start on Town Moor at Doncaster. I like the chances of Luca Cumani improving an already brilliant record at the track with his only runner, Out Do in the 6.55. He showed good form at 2 and pedigree suggest he'll be better at 3. He'll be hard to beat. I've followed Farlow for quite a while and think he will improve a lot this year. He runs in the 7.25 and at 14/1 is a massive price after a troubled tune-up run at Kempton last time.
Up in Northumberland, the most testing conditions anywhere this evening kick off at 5.40 for a seven race card. I like Hoar Frost in the opening selling hurdle. The yard have hit a purple patch and ran well when he last ran at Hexham, and looks great each way if it stays to the 8 runners. Finally, to the last British race of the day, the 8.40, I like The Wicked Kipper. Martin Keighley has sent 3 runners up there tonight and this must be the lead of them, with a respectable run in a Listed Bumper last time behind one of the Aintree Festival bumper winners. Must go well.
Good Luck with whatever you do today
Will
ADVISED: Eton Rifles 1pt E/W 3.45 NewM
Vita Nova 5pts WIN 2.15 GWood
Mon Brav 2pts E/W 3.20 Thirsk
Space War 1pt E/W 4.30 Thirsk
Royaume Bleu 2pts WIN 5.20 Uttox
Out Do 3pts WIN 6.55 Donny
Farlow 2pts E/W 7.25 Donny
Hoar Frost 2pts E/W 5.40 Hex
The best bet for me at Newmarket after Abtaal is Eton Rifles in the Palace House (3.45) each way. He is still lightly raced for a seven year old, and changed hands for big money to Stuart Williams before winning at Fontainebleu last time. He has a good draw and is progressing well, so each way must go well.
At Goodwood, Vita Nova (2.15) is the star attraction, and I can't see her losing here. Unbeaten with Ian Mongan on and on seasonal debut and likes a bit of juice in the ground. Also, on the downs, I like the look of Raasekha in the Listed race (4.05), despite Neutrafa's presence. She ran well last time in is well regarded, and in this potentially weak race, with Esentepe near the head of the market, I would take her or Neutrafa each way, as they will prefer the ground as it is now.
A big day and a big crowd expected at Thirsk for one of their biggest days of the year, and I like a couple here too. Mon Brav in the 3.20 contest looks good value at 12/1. He is much better at this time of year, and with a good draw on a track he's won at twice, should be thereabouts. Also, the big race is the Thirsk Hunt Cup at 4.30, with the very warm order being Farrh for Godolphin. He is way too short and I'll go for Space War each way. He was 3rd in the race last year, when I was there and on him at 33's that day, he is 5lbs lower this year and should run well again.
Then to Uttoxeter, my local, for a decent 7 race card. I like Royaume Bleu quite strongly in the 5.20. This race is weak and I want to take on Bennys Mist, and this 7 year old seems the horse to do it with. He has always run well at the track and recieves nearly 2 stone from the favourite, and is a sure fire each way bet and a small win play too. Also, have a look at Out Of Nothing in the opener at 2.20. He caught most peoples eye at Chepstow, with the jockey getting a 10 day ban for not trying to get the best possible placing, and with Robert Thornton aboard, who's 1-2 for the yard in the last 5 seasons, could be very interesting.
The evening's fare is shared between Doncaster on the Flat and Hexham over the sticks. We'll start on Town Moor at Doncaster. I like the chances of Luca Cumani improving an already brilliant record at the track with his only runner, Out Do in the 6.55. He showed good form at 2 and pedigree suggest he'll be better at 3. He'll be hard to beat. I've followed Farlow for quite a while and think he will improve a lot this year. He runs in the 7.25 and at 14/1 is a massive price after a troubled tune-up run at Kempton last time.
Up in Northumberland, the most testing conditions anywhere this evening kick off at 5.40 for a seven race card. I like Hoar Frost in the opening selling hurdle. The yard have hit a purple patch and ran well when he last ran at Hexham, and looks great each way if it stays to the 8 runners. Finally, to the last British race of the day, the 8.40, I like The Wicked Kipper. Martin Keighley has sent 3 runners up there tonight and this must be the lead of them, with a respectable run in a Listed Bumper last time behind one of the Aintree Festival bumper winners. Must go well.
Good Luck with whatever you do today
Will
ADVISED: Eton Rifles 1pt E/W 3.45 NewM
Vita Nova 5pts WIN 2.15 GWood
Mon Brav 2pts E/W 3.20 Thirsk
Space War 1pt E/W 4.30 Thirsk
Royaume Bleu 2pts WIN 5.20 Uttox
Out Do 3pts WIN 6.55 Donny
Farlow 2pts E/W 7.25 Donny
Hoar Frost 2pts E/W 5.40 Hex
2000 Guineas Preview
This year's 2000 Guineas as ever kicks off the British classics, and as ever, is very well contested. There are many angles to go on to find the winner, French raiders, the best, and mostly highly tried 2 year olds, potential superstars and the big question about favourite Camelot.
CAMELOT- YES OR NO?: For me, even more so at the prices, it is a no. He is obviously exciting and the way he won the Racing Post Trophy was very good, but afterwards, connections were very certain on this race and then the Derby. But since that sunny day on Town Moor, his price has fluctuated to all odds since, with connections becoming unsure about the ground and various other factors since. That worries me despite the Coolmore insiders at Ladbrokes being shortest on him all the way through. I think he will probably find the big field quite daunting and the dip tricky. Saying this, if he can keep up with the frenetic early gallop, still travelling, he might be worth an in-running play. I would prefer to be looking elsewhere today.
WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER MARKET CHALLENGERS?:
Well, we'll start off with the home party and Trumpet Major. He was impressive in the Craven and seemed to handle the dip really well, scooting clear of a suspect field with the minimum of fuss. I think the stands side draws today will be important and he is right against the rail in 18. He has to have an outstanding each way chance at about 9/1.
Next in home colours is Top Offer. He is the most unknown of any, but from the signals that Roger Charlton has been sending out, he may suprise a few. I would worry that he hasn't had a run this year, despite having an engagement in the Greenham (pulled out due to the soft ground), and may be a bit green here on only his second racecourse appearance. I would wait for another day.
Now to the French contingent, where I am very sweet on Abtaal. He beat French Fifteen very comfortable on softened ground at Saint-Cloud last year, even though this was turned around in the Prix Djebel at Deauville last time, with a neck in it at the line, and a lot quieter ride on Abtaal that day, confirmed by trainer Jean-Claude Rouget saying he was "fat that day and will improve a lot from it". He has bad-boy Soumillon aboard too. The only disadvantage is the draw in 2, I am hoping they bunch in the middle of the track and with prominent tactics, should be bang there. I can't see Hermival beating either of those from the Djebel and is too short for me.
The other we should mention in this category is the Coolmore super-sub Power, who in a virtually blemish free two year old campaign, ending with a good second in the Dewhurst here where he wasn't great through the dip, losing important ground, but must go well here if he has trained on.
ANY FROM THE OUTSIDERS?:
There are a couple I would love to see run well include Red Duke, who is massively overpriced due to his connections I think, and a slightly disappointing run on his only visit to the Rowley Mile in the Dewhurst, despite that 80/1 is huge. Casper Netscher is the other I would love to see run well for connections, and has the form to figure, but a mile on softened ground is a big worry. I think Bronterre, who was behind Casper in the Greenham last time, is the one to take at big odds. He ran far too free in that Newbury race, but with less bold tactics, Jamie Spencer aboard and Richard Hannon saying he has been "Flying at home since the Greenham", 33/1 could be a little bit silly.
Whatever happens it'll be a great renewal. Good Luck with your views and bets
Will
ADVISED: Trumpet Major 2pts E/W
Abtaal 3pts WIN
Bronterre 1pt E/W
CAMELOT- YES OR NO?: For me, even more so at the prices, it is a no. He is obviously exciting and the way he won the Racing Post Trophy was very good, but afterwards, connections were very certain on this race and then the Derby. But since that sunny day on Town Moor, his price has fluctuated to all odds since, with connections becoming unsure about the ground and various other factors since. That worries me despite the Coolmore insiders at Ladbrokes being shortest on him all the way through. I think he will probably find the big field quite daunting and the dip tricky. Saying this, if he can keep up with the frenetic early gallop, still travelling, he might be worth an in-running play. I would prefer to be looking elsewhere today.
WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER MARKET CHALLENGERS?:
Well, we'll start off with the home party and Trumpet Major. He was impressive in the Craven and seemed to handle the dip really well, scooting clear of a suspect field with the minimum of fuss. I think the stands side draws today will be important and he is right against the rail in 18. He has to have an outstanding each way chance at about 9/1.
Next in home colours is Top Offer. He is the most unknown of any, but from the signals that Roger Charlton has been sending out, he may suprise a few. I would worry that he hasn't had a run this year, despite having an engagement in the Greenham (pulled out due to the soft ground), and may be a bit green here on only his second racecourse appearance. I would wait for another day.
Now to the French contingent, where I am very sweet on Abtaal. He beat French Fifteen very comfortable on softened ground at Saint-Cloud last year, even though this was turned around in the Prix Djebel at Deauville last time, with a neck in it at the line, and a lot quieter ride on Abtaal that day, confirmed by trainer Jean-Claude Rouget saying he was "fat that day and will improve a lot from it". He has bad-boy Soumillon aboard too. The only disadvantage is the draw in 2, I am hoping they bunch in the middle of the track and with prominent tactics, should be bang there. I can't see Hermival beating either of those from the Djebel and is too short for me.
The other we should mention in this category is the Coolmore super-sub Power, who in a virtually blemish free two year old campaign, ending with a good second in the Dewhurst here where he wasn't great through the dip, losing important ground, but must go well here if he has trained on.
ANY FROM THE OUTSIDERS?:
There are a couple I would love to see run well include Red Duke, who is massively overpriced due to his connections I think, and a slightly disappointing run on his only visit to the Rowley Mile in the Dewhurst, despite that 80/1 is huge. Casper Netscher is the other I would love to see run well for connections, and has the form to figure, but a mile on softened ground is a big worry. I think Bronterre, who was behind Casper in the Greenham last time, is the one to take at big odds. He ran far too free in that Newbury race, but with less bold tactics, Jamie Spencer aboard and Richard Hannon saying he has been "Flying at home since the Greenham", 33/1 could be a little bit silly.
Whatever happens it'll be a great renewal. Good Luck with your views and bets
Will
ADVISED: Trumpet Major 2pts E/W
Abtaal 3pts WIN
Bronterre 1pt E/W
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