2013 Flat Dark Horses

After a really good first attempt at compiling a dark horses list in the current jumps season, I thought I would have a dabble at the Flat too. The following list is in no fixed order at all. I would advise TWO things to start with, firstly, watch the previous races with these horses if possible, with Sportinglife the best source providing you have a SkyBet account. The other is to set up a tracker service, either Attheraces or the one I use, nagme.com.

I hope you enjoy following these ten throughout the season, and hope we can get them all to win if possible. 

Cannizaro House (T Clement) - Nice horse from an underrated yard. Showed plenty of promise on debut when finishing fifth at Lingfield, before drawing away nicely to win a Windsor maiden, beating some horses who have done well on the AW this winter, Cool Sky and Admiralty to name a couple, comfortably by nearly 4 lengths. He has a mark of 85, which is workable without being lenient, and I expect he can find a few suitable races over a mile and even a little further to win this season.

 

Our Obsession (W Haggas) - Our Obsession is a horse I’ve always liked, ever since I saw her make a really pleasing debut on the July Course last August. She finished a never nearer sixth, with decent filly Mar Mar a further four lengths behind her. She learnt plenty, and despite being very green and not liking the dip too much, she broke her maiden on the Rowley Mile in really nice style in October. She is entered in the Guineas, Oaks and the Irish Oaks, and could be a real star.

Number One London (B Meehan) – Funnily enough, Number One London was third behind Our Obsession at Newmarket in October on his second start, and if Our Obsession didn’t like the dip, Number One London detested it. He was all over the place, but when he met the rising ground, he sprouted wings for a minor placing. If he doesn’t win in 2013 I’ll be amazed. He has gears and should have strengthened up over the winter, and I hope he can reach a mark around or above the 90 mark by November.

Trucanini (C Wall)  - Trucanini is another whose form ties in with a fellow Dark Horse, as she was third in the race where Our Obsession was third at Newmarket. That was her second start, before a battling narrow second to Ghanaian at Lingfield, a good performance. She has been given a mark of 75, which to me looks lenient and she should also be able to win off that mark in a three year old handicap somewhere on quick ground.

Mirsaale (J Tate)  - Mirsaale is a horse I really like. I saw him break his maiden at Brighton last August, and albeit in a three runner race, he was visually imposing to look at and by far the nicest horse I saw all day. He was then a very good third in the Ascendant Stakes at Haydock before a heavy defeat in a hot race at Newmarket, where the track and soft ground probably didn’t help. He is by Sir Percy, whose progeny always improve from 2 to 3, and I think he is a name we will hear plenty more of this year.

If So (J Fanshawe)  - If So is a filly I think will win her fair share this year. The Fanshawe stable are fantastic, and probably worth following blind. She is a half sister to the yards brilliant Deacon Blues, who improved dramatically at 4. This filly starts 2013 off a mark of 67 on turf and 64 on the all weather, which is a very good set of marks to start with. Deacon Blues improved 25lbs in the season he turned 4, and hopefully If So can do the same. A hood has certainly helped her development as well.

Twenty One Choice (E De Giles) – Twenty One Choice is a horse I am becoming more and more fond of. He improved hugely last year for two main reasons, firstly going handicapping and secondly being gelded. He ran well at Wolverhampton before three wins, at Kempton, Musselburgh and back at Dunstall Park last September, all with a little bit more up his sleeve. He started off 49 and is now rated 73, but I still think he is one to follow.

Self Employed (G Woodward) – Self Employed hails from the small yard of Garry Woodward in Nottinghamshire. This horse has obviously had plenty of problems, as he has only raced 6 times and he is a 6 year old, but I wanted to include him nonetheless. He ran a screamer in a conditions event at Doncaster last July after a year off the course, before a poor run in Group company at Haydock. He bounced back and won a maiden at Thirsk, where he beat a Godolphin horse called Volcanic Wind, now rated 87. Self Employed however has been given a mark of 73, which baffles me and a mark he should be able to be very competitive off. I had him in mind for the Lincoln but he isn’t amongst the entries, let’s hope he’s not injured again.

Mister Impatience (M Johnston) – I witnessed Mister Impatience break his maiden at Nottingham at the back end of last year, and was really taken by him, both in the preliminaries and in the race itself. He was big and gross, and he surprised me with the way he lengthened away in the soft, sticky ground to win by six lengths. Jock Bennett said afterwards he’d be a much better three year old and I think an opening mark of 82 is perfectly reasonable.

**RUNS DONCASTER 22/3/13 2.00 1m2f 3yo Handicap**

Hassle (C Cox)  - Hassle is a 4 year old colt trained by Clive Cox. I saw him make his belated debut at Nottingham last year, where he raced very green and was only a half length away from a smart Godolphin horse in Last Fighter, who had more experience and has since gone on to win in Meydan. He is closely related to a horse called Red Merlin, who this trainer did very well with before he moved to Donald McCain, and I think he will be a nice horse to keep on side throughout this season.

Any feedback? Either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Will 

Cheltenham Day 4 Preview

After three days of top class action, we save the best until last, with the centrepiece, The Cheltenham Gold Cup, one of the few British races known around the world. It is a vintage renewal, with so many top class second season chasers in particular lining up. The undercard is good as well, including the County Hurdle, a fiercely quick and competitive race for punters. I'll try my best to find as many winners as I can in this preview, and give my views on why I don't fancy some horses too.

1.30 - Triumph Hurdle - 2m:

A field jam packed full of nice horses, headed in the market by Our Conor for Dessie Hughes. He has looked very professional and jockey Bryan Cooper is very sweet on him. However, in a race as competitive as this, I will look for an each way angle. The safest two at the top of the market are past course winners Rolling Star and Far West, although the ground will be much quicker for them this time. Last year's winning trainer John Quinn has a pair of contenders in the shape of Kashmir Peak and Hidden Justice, both of whom are improving and could easily run well. The two I quite like however are Swynmor but moreso
Lac Fontana. Swynmor should be a Grade 1 winner over hurdles before coming to grief at the final flight in the Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow. He had a break and a confidence boosting spin at Doncaster last time. He could easily place in this race. Lac Fontana is a horse who has had things go against him to date, running in behind slow paces and on deep ground. I think an end to end gallop on better ground could be right up his alley and I think he's a good each way bet.

2.05 - County Hurdle - 2m:

A minefield of a handicap hurdle, which will be run at a mad gallop over two miles. Favourite Cotton Mill shouldn't be too far away for Denis O'Regan, after a fantastic second to My Tent Or Yours at Newbury. Ted Veale will have his supporters, mainly the Irish, but I feel he may come up a little short here. I think Tennis Cap needs an easy lead, something he definitely won't get here. My four against the field however are Ifandbutwhynot, Clerks Choice, Hisaabaat and It's A Gimme. Ifandbutwhynot is a course winner for David O'Meara who has shown an impressive turn of foot in recent times, especially at Musselburgh last time out under top weight. He has a nice racing weight of 10st 7lbs and shouldn't be far away. Clerks Choice only has a small each way chance but he is one I've had in mind for this race for a while. Hisaabaat is my main selection under Micheal Nolan. He was second in the Triumph last year and recorded 2 Grade 1 victories last term at Leopardstown and Punchestown. He comes to life in the Spring and I think he will go very well indeed. It's A Gimme is a much better horse on better ground, so his last run is a write off. He will be finishing well, but it's Hisaabaat for me.

2.40 - Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle - 3m:

Can At Fishers Cross beat Inish Island again?

A corker of an Albert Bartlett, where cases can be made for many. Favourite At Fishers Cross received a timely boost when The New One, the horse he chinned on Trials Day over this course and distance in January, won the Neptune impressively on Wednesday. I think he will take plenty of beating. Ballycasey looks pretty slow from what I have seen and I'm willing to oppose him at skinny enough odds. His stablemate Inish Island has a bit to find with At Fishers Cross from December, but won't be far away. Utopie Des Bordes is far too short for me, and I don't fancy her at all. African Gold looks really exciting and I think he will run a very big race and has a good each way chance, as does the other Rebecca Curtis runner O'Faolains Boy, a horse I've been really impressed with to date, on the clock and visually. He has to step up but there is no reason whatsoever why he can't do that under Jason Maguire. Our Vinnie and Cloudy Copper are others with claims in an open race.

3.20 - Betfred Gold Cup - 3m2f110y:

What a renewal this is. It brings together two dual Festival winners in Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth, a previous winner and dual King George hero in Long Run, a Gold Cup second The Giant Bolster, last years Pertemps Final winner Cape Tribulation, an Arkle winner Captain Chris, a Grand National second Sunnyhillboy and that's without mentioning Silviniaco Conti!! Sir Des Champs is the one to beat for Willie Mullins, after his fantastic win in last years Jewson, where he jumped so well, bouncing off the better ground. His jumping has been a concern in Ireland this season, but after jumping so well on better ground last year, that should be the same again. Bobs Worth is hard to knock, with my only concern the fact he hasn't run for over 100 days, a big worry for me. I'm willing to oppose him at 11/4. Silviniaco Conti is a horse I like, but there are mixed messages from the Nicholls camp regarding the suitability of the track. Last year, he bypassed the Festival as Nicholls said 'the track doesn't really suit him', now he is lining up in the biggest test of his career at Cheltenham! Again, I'm willing to oppose.
Long Run is my selection. He is a horse who thrives on a strong pace, both his King George's and his Gold Cup coming off very fast paces. He has been beaten when in steadily run affairs, last years Gold Cup and this seasons Betfair Chase just two examples. I think he is a fantastic each way bet.
The Giant Bolster and Cape Tribulation will try hard without winning.

4.00 - Foxhunters Chase - 3m2f110y:

Salsify comes back again to try and defend his crown under Colman Sweeney, and I think he will be hard to beat. He jumps very well, and has come to the boil at the right time after beating Tammys Hill last time at Leopardstown. He is classy and should be able to beat Chapoturgeon again. Backstage is a fascinating runner for Jamie Codd and Gordon Elliott, a winner of his last seven point to points. Cottage Oak has to improve, but has looked impressive to date with a nice win at Haydock his latest triumph. Dante's Storm will run well too for Alan Hill, after a fantastic display of jumping at Doncaster last time. Galant Nuit interests me for Ferdy Murphy. He is a course winner over a little bit further, and has placed at the Festival behind Ballabriggs as well. He has come back from injury with three point wins and has the useful Mike Fogarty on board. 33/1 is too big.

4.40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle - 2m4f110y:

An open handicap where Gevrey Chambertin will be popular for David Pipe in the race named after his Dad. He is very progressive and looked a serious tool when hacking up at Wincanton last time. Tom Bellamy takes a good 6lbs off and he should go very well. Edeymi is very interesting on his last run alone, where he was a huge eyecatcher under this rider. However, I thought he was being aimed at the Coral Cup and has rerouted to this race, which would be a slight negative, and I'll oppose him. I like Art Professor for Venitia Williams here under Harry Challoner. He was only fifth in this race last year when his stable were in poor form. He lines up here off the same mark and with Venetia Williams' horses in great form all season, and at 25/1, he's a big price.

5.15 - Grand Annual Challenge Cup - 2m110y:

A tough, but very good renewal of the closing race of the Festival. Alderwood has been targeted for this race from some way off, but I think his jumping is a problem in a big field on fast ground. I'm not an Ulck Du Lin fan at all, as I think he needs a deep surface on an easier course. Viva Colonia has been getting some good reports from the North after a nice win at Musselburgh last time. Rody is another one with a chance too. But I like two here, Kid Cassidy and His Excellency. The former has a similar profile to last years victor Bellvano, and is also ridden by Paul Carberry, who will ride this one very patiently indeed. His Excellency is one I've fancied for this ever since he ran Shooters Wood close here in December. He needs an end to end gallop, and ran really well behind Simonsig on Tuesday so should run his race at around 20/1.

If you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Best of luck,
Will

Cheltenham Day 2 Preview

Wednesday is another fantastic day of action, and the Queen Mother Champion Chase is the feature.
In this preview, I will give you my views on the leading contenders and what I think will be adding some weight to the wallet! I hope you enjoy it.

1.30 - John Oaksey National Hunt Chase - 4m:

A gruelling event for novice chasers and amateur riders. Back In Focus is favourite for Willie Mullins, and with the ground now soft, that will definitely benefit him. However, the track is a complete unknown, and he is plenty short enough. Rival D'Estruval has Derek O'Connor on board, the winning most Point to Point rider of all time. This horse is very progressive and has been saved for this race, so is of course quite interesting for the North.  Buddy Bolero is another I really like for David Pipe. Tony McCoy was quite keen to ride this horse in a handicap, but runs here instead under Jamie Codd, a winner on the yard's Junior here before. Merry King is interesting too, but the track may be a worry. However, Godsmejudge is very interesting under Nico De Boinville, a very strong stayer who went down on his sword in the Classic Chase behind Rigadin De Beauchene, then won nicely back at Warwick. He would be the selection.

2.05 - Neptune Novice Hurdle - 2m5f:

What a race this promises to be. Pont Alexandre is favourite for Willie Mullins, but is a very short price. He has no Cheltenham run and I wouldn't be rushing to take 7/4. I have followed The New One from Day One, and if he came here with his 'A' game, he would win. But with the dreaded 'bug' in the Twiston Davies camp, I'll let him be at his current price.
Taquin Du Seuil however is the pick. I flagged him up as a Dark Horse in October, and has done me proud with two victories, including at Grade 1 level, and only one defeat, which came at Ascot finishing a close second to My Tent Or Yours giving him weight. He is bombproof apart from a Cheltenham run. Two Rockers is one to watch too at bigger odds if he ran.

2.40 - RSA Chase - 3m110y:

No Dynaste anymore in this which is a shame, but I do think that they have made the right call. I'm finding it hard to oppose Boston Bob, who will be ridden by Paul Townend. He got a great tune out of him to win narrowly at Leopardstown last time, a performance jam-packed full of stamina. Past winner of this race such as Bostons Angel is a real warrior and jumps very well too. Ruby Walsh is on Unioniste, who is a horse I've never really got attached too and think is a bit too short at 7/2. Hadrian's Approach doesn't jump well enough for me. Goulanes is very interesting and lightly raced, but he does have to step up a little on what we have seen to date. Lord Windermere and Lyreen Legend would be the value as they don't have a lot of ground to find with Boston Bob, but Boston Bob will do for me.

3.20 - Queen Mother Champion Chase - 2m:

Two words, Sprinter Sacre. So many superlatives have been used about this horse, but none of them do him justice. He is so good and I don't think I have seen one as good in this discipline before. He is in a seven strong field, of which Sizing Europe has to be considered as the only danger under Andrew Lynch. He is of course a previous winner of this race, but he is 11 years old and I would have really fancied him for the Ryanair this time as he has lost a bit of his old speed. Supplemented entry Mail De Bievre could run well but he shouldn't be able to touch Sprinter Sacre.

4.00 - Coral Cup - 2m5f:

Fiveforthree: Can he do it again at the Festival aged 11?

A handicap that has left punters puzzled for endless years, with a succession of big priced winners. Last year, a titanic gamble on Son Of Flicka netted his owner the best part of a million pounds as well. It is a race for a shortlist of three or four if possible. Pendra is a horse I quite like, but not at 7/1. Mr Watson has done me a couple of favours this season, but I think the trip is long enough and competition for the lead a big issue. The four I have are Fiveforthree, Barbatos, Bondage and Saphir River. Fiveforthree is eleven now, but is off the same he finished second to Solwhit off in the Aintree Hurdle of 2009. He has apparently been working very well, looking back to his best according to Irish reporters. He has a good record here too and must be taken seriously by all. Barbatos is another grey who has very good novice form here. He has only had one start this campaign, when the ground was far too soft for him. He can go well. Bondage again goes well here at Cheltenham, and the booking of Paul Carberry is another positive. He stays well and goes on most ground as well. Finally, Saphir River completes a trio of greys for Lucinda Russell. It would be terribly emotional if he did win, in the colours of the ill fated Brinidisi Breeze, and I think he has an each way chance for sure. He acts well in big fields, with a good fourth at Aintree to his name. He needs to be produced late off a strong pace, but only got as far as the second flight in this last term. 40/1 is too big however.


4.40 - Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle - 2m110y:

I think JP may be smiling after the Fred Winter!

Another potential minefield! Paul Nicholls seems really keen on his Saphir De Rheu, ridden by Ruby Walsh, a easy Taunton winner last time out. Stablemate Ptit Zig won nicely at Ludlow, but I feel that race rather fell apart with the flop of New Year's Eve. Totalize is of interest for Brian Ellison as well as Fatcatinthehat for Willie Mullins. The two I like however are both owned by JP McManus, Another Sensation and Hilali. The former is the choice of AP McCoy and looks a fascinating contender, after only one British run, an unseat in a Sandown novice hurdle. Hilali is a horse I've had my eye on since the entry stage, and is the mount of Paul Carberry for AP McCoy's tennant Gary Brown. He could have done with a bit better ground, but still should go well after a nice All Weather win a fortnight ago.

5.15 - Champion Bumper - 2m110y:

An Irish benefit for the majority of the last ten years, and yet again, they appear to be holding all the aces. Favourite Le Vent D'Antan looks a very nice horse on what he did at Leopardstown last time. Willie Mullins looks to have a good chance with Union Dues under son Paddy, a horse who he says has 'gears to burn'. Aidan O'Brien and Derby winning rider, his son Joseph, are represented with Shield, who would have a small each way chance. The British though hold a big chance I think this year, with Sgt Reckless very popular under Flat Champion jockey Richard Hughes. He oozes class and looks a very exciting prospect. But my vote is firmly with Regal Encore! He was another Dark Horse back in October, shortly before he hosed up at Chepstow. He is my favourite horse in training and can't wait to see him again. I'm Fraam Govan could outrun his price as well for the George Baker yard.

Best of luck, and if you have any feedback, feel free to tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Will

Cheltenham Day 1 Preview

This time next week we will be half way through the Cheltenham Festival 2013, and hopefully a few pounds richer!! The greatest show on turf is so close now, meaning endless preview evenings and expert analysis. In Part 1 of my preview for the best four days of the jumps season, I will preview all the races on Tuesday, giving you my best bets.

Day 1:

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle:

What a way to start, a cracker of a Supreme with My Tent Or Yours a warm order at the top of the market. Anyone who saw him win the Betfair Hurdle could only have been breathtaken with the way he went about it, pulling hard early and then effortlessly pulling away to win by five lengths, on only his fourth hurdles start. The negatives are that he has never run at Cheltenham before, which means the hill is an unknown. The other slight negative is that last season he ran once in March and April, and was beaten twice.
As for challengers, Jezki is second favourite, another for JP McManus. He has looked very impressive over hurdles to date, but I can find 3 big worries for him. Firstly, the ground will be considerably quicker than what he has been winning on in Ireland. Secondly, his only previous Cheltenham run, the Bumper at last years meeting, he finished eighth in his only jumps defeat. Finally, he hasn't run in 2013, which I worry about least but some say it is a negative.
Melodic Rendezvous cannot be discounted at all for Jeremy Scott after a great season and has previous winning form at Cheltenham too, likewise River Maigue, the runner up in a farcical race at Ascot last time, must be considered.
For me though the value is Dodging Bullets for Paul Nicholls. Funnily enough, he is bred by Frankie Dettori! He was very inexperienced but ran a screamer in the Triumph last year, arguably making his challenge earlier than ideal. He then got very badly hampered and lost all chance at Aintree. This season, he has settled much better, winning twice at Cheltenham before finishing a very good third in the Christmas Hurdle off a slow pace. I can see him getting a little outpaced before flying home, similar to Al Ferof when he won this race a few years ago, and at 9/1, he looks a great each way bet.

2.05 Arkle Novice Chase:

Simonsig versus Overturn basically!! It promises to be a cracker. I love both horses, but can only see one really winning. That one is Simonsig. He ran 5 times over hurdles compared to Overturn's 19, and was only rated 4lbs below him. Nicky Henderson has said that he is 'among the top 5 he has trained' and that 'if he ran in the Champion Hurdle this season, he'd win it'. Unfortunately for old Overturn, he will do all the donkey work, before Barry Geraghty looms alongside at the second last and goes away, well that's how I think it will play out anyway!. Overturn must be an owners dream, Galway Hurdle, Chester Cup, Northumberland Plate, Scottish Champion Hurdle, Fighting Fifth Hurdle plus many more fantastic achievments, but I can't see him beating Simonsig, and the closer we get, the less I can see him winning.

2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase:

This looks a very tricky handicap to work out indeed. Last years winner Alfie Sherrin would have a chance, but whether he has his mind set on Aintree instead of Cheltenham this time I'm not sure. If Monkerty Tunkerty snook in to the field, then he would have a chance for Jess Westwood. My two against the field at present however are Our Mick and Midnight Chase. The former was third in this same contest last year off just a pound lower. He has only ran once this season, when unseating here when giving Katenko a good race on Trials Day. He has been found in the market but must go very well again. Midnight Chase needs three things to show his best, Cheltenham, Ground on the soft side of good and an easy lead. He has dropped to a mark of 152, which is very tempting indeed. He may get hassled by Fruity O'Rooney for the lead, but he has the other two factors firmly in his favour. He has started at 9/1 and 12/1 for the last 2 Gold Cups, but is 20/1 for this. That looks very good value, and the trainer Neil Mulholland has said the same , reporting him in good heart.

3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle:

Another belter! The last three winners of the race line up here against last years Supreme and Triumph Hurdle winners, plus Grandouet and Zarkandar!! I want to take on Hurricane Fly, not because I don't like him, because he's no value for what he has beaten this year. He has beaten stablemate Thousand Stars, Unaccompanied and Captain Cee Bee easily, but what are they in the context of the 2013 Champion Hurdle? Zarkandar has done nothing wrong this year but I think he isn't particularly good value either compared to Rock On Ruby, who beat him a little more than six and a half lengths last year.
At the current prices, Rock On Ruby is by far the bet in the race for me each way. He is the reigning champion and represents a stable in top form as well. Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame could both be overpriced as well but I will stick with Rock On Ruby at around 11/2.

4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase:

The commentators nightmare The Cross Country is a fiercely competitive event which has been pretty much exclusively won by Ireland, until last year when Balthazar King and Richard Johnson broke the English Hoodoo in the race, and he is joint favourite to win it again. He is bound to go well. I think however the other joint favourite Arabella Boy will be tough to beat. Trainer Enda Bolger has a stranglehold over this race and Nina Carberry said recently that he had a 'great chance'. The one that interests me is Shalimar Fromentro for Nick Williams, a horse who has been campaigning in France in recent times. He needs a few horses to come out for him to get a run, but you can bet non runner no bet.

4.40 OLBG Mares Hurdle:

Quevega will win this, I'm sure! If she does, she will become the first horse since Golden Miller to win at five consecutive Festivals. She has beaten most of her rivals in the past and she looks my banker of the week. The value is Alasi for Paul Webber each way but it looks a race to watch and admire rather than bet in.

5.15 Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase:

Anybody who follows me on Twitter (@willbowler2k12) will know I really like The Druids Nephew (pictured above) for Andy Turnell for this race. He was a Dark Horse for me at the start of the season, and he has done me proud. A very unlucky loser at Ascot on chase debut was followed by a slightly disappointing effort over three miles at Kempton, where he didn't stay. He then bounced back at Wincanton, recording a very comfortable victory over Grandioso, a dual winner since. I think he will go very well indeed.
I don't fancy Attaglance at all, he doesn't jump anywhere near well enough for this type of test. The danger is Carlito Brigante, but he has been spotted by the market and isn't much value at the moment.

I hope you have enjoyed my look at Tuesday, and hopefully I have found some winners for you.

Will