The opening day was brilliant as expected. Frankel was utterly breath-taking in the Queen Anne, added to a winner for Hong Kong, Most Improved finally justifying the hype his trainer has shown with him all season. As a footnote, can I just express my condolences to all involved with The Nile, a horse who had a huge future that sadly ended in the St James's Palace Stakes.
I hope that the yard can have a winner as compensation this week.
Let's have a look at Day 2, which starts with the Jersey Stakes. It's a 3 year old only race which has attracted a huge field here, with 25 currently down to run. I don't have much of a view, I would have done if Fort Bastion had run as Richard Hughes rated him his best ride of the week, but as he doesn't the market isn't very stable. If there had to be one to go for, then Aljamaaheer would be the pick, who won well at Newmarket when I was there last time, creating a good impression, and should be bang there at the end of the race. The flies in the ointment may well be Valbcheck and Sentaril, who are both very lightly raced from top stables.
The next is the Windsor Forest Stakes, and readers of my ante post piece will know I am keen on Nahrain. It suprised me she stayed in training after her French victory last year, but I'm glad she has and most go very close. To add to the confidence, trainer Roger Varian said she was his best hope of the week. Chachamaidee would be the danger, and a good each way price too at 11/2.
The Prince of Wales's Stakes is next up, and a good renewal as well. It's hard to get away from So You Think, despite the glory of a Royal winner in Carlton House or the most interesting contender, Farhh, who has been kept quiet to date. I think So You Think will win as he has the best form, and looked better than ever on his reappearance run. A small win bet would be advised.
This is followed by the Royal Hunt Cup at 4.25, with 30 runners over a mile. I don't have a stand out selection as such, but I like a couple at each way prices, which are Mabait and Boogie Shoes. Mabait bounced into form for the his new yard last time at Chester, and has dropped to a very good mark now. He ran second in a Victoria Cup at this track when with Luca Cumani, and I think he will be on the premises. Boogie Shoes ran a shocker last time at Epsom, but the straight mile will help him, and a hood might bring about a better showing too. Rock Critic and Belgian Bill must be feared too.
This is followed by another two year old contest, the Queen Mary, and as the week goes on, Mironica has nearly lead my list for my best selections of the meeting. She was very impressive on her debut, winning very comfortably, and for connections who had their Dylanbaru run into third in a two year old race on Tuesday, must go very close. I think this is the weakest two year old race of the week as well.
The last race is the Sandringham Handicap over a mile for three year old fillies. I like Ladys First here, who ran a race full of promise on her seasonal debut, after looking good at two, and could be a chance to get Fahey and Hanagan off the mark.
Good Luck, hope it is as good as Tuesday
Will
or @willbowler2k12 or Will Bowler Racing on Soundcloud
ADVISED:
2pts WIN Nahrain 3.05
2pts WIN So You Think 3.45
1pt E/W Mabait and Boogie Shoes 4.25
4pts WIN, 2pts PLACE, Mironica 5.00
2pts E/W Ladys First 5.35
Tuesday 19 June 2012
Monday 18 June 2012
Royal Ascot - Day 1
Ascot gets going on Tuesday with a stellar days racing in the offing, with the likes of Bated Breath, Power and the undoubted star attraction, Frankel in the opening Queen Anne.
If any of you saw my earlier post regarding the ante post look at the meeting, you'd know my feelings about Excelebration. In my mind, Frankel is destined to saunter home for this near £200,000 contest, and Excelebration is 4 nil down in the matches between the pair. He has always finished placed though, and looks better with cut in the ground, with a 3-3 record on genuine soft ground, despite the good in it now, it'll still be relatively deep. I fully expect him to finish second, and with Strong Suit in a third spot, could be a decent tricast.
The King Stand stakes is next up, a cavalry charge that will be over in a blink of an eye. Stone of Folca was great last time, and any of my Twitter followers will testify, I was a happy bunny when he won at 50/1. He is lowest rated here, and I think he will probably finish in the midfield here, but could outrun his odds to knick a place spot. I like Wizz Kid, as he handles ease in the ground and is getting better and better with racing. He was unlucky on every run in this country bar the Champions Sprint run, where he bumped into Deacon Blues, a huge improver last season. I don't think there is a Deacon Blues in here and would suggest him strongly each way.
The St James's Palace Stakes is next, a race for 3 year old colts, and a race I'm not too excited by. The race to me as it is made up of horses who are just a little bit short of top class, involving horses who were placed in Classics, apart from Power, who won the Irish 2000 Guineas last time, beating Foxtrot Romeo, who needs to prove that run wasn't a fluke, as his previous form may suggest, plus Born To Sea, Wrote and Hermival. If I had to have one running for me, then it'd be Dragon Pulse to a small each way stake. He was the victim a messy French race again last time, and in an interesting move, is reunited with Fran Berry, who rode him in Ireland, where he beat Parish Hall and finished half a length behind Power in the Moyglare last season. He looks too big at 12/1, knowing he will handle the ground and a end to end gallop should really suit.
I am delighted connections have chosen to run Sir Prancealot in the Coventry Stakes, after my confidence on the ante post blog last week, and I think he will win. I also think Englishman will run well too, I was impressed with the way he won at Newbury after having not the best runs.
The Ascot Stakes is a race I would never get too involved in also, as it is quite a niche distance and attracts a lot of jumpers. I think a couple are of interest, one more than the other. Monterey was a good winner under a enterprising ride last time, and looks to be improving. The issue is the right handed track and shorter straight, after his antics at Salisbury two starts ago. Elyaadi would be a more confident vote. He has been campaigned for this, with one run after a decent break, and ran second in the Queen Alexandra here last year. He looks a good each way play.
Finally, the Windsor Castle Stakes for 2 year olds over five furlongs. If the ground was quick, I would be keen on Bungle Inthejungle, but I'm worried about the ground with him. In that case, I wouldn't be having a look and would leave it well alone.
Good Luck and hope you all enjoy the great racing on offer.
Will
or @willbowler2k12
ADVISED: 5pts E/W (Place) Excelebration 2.30
2pts E/W Wizz Kid 3.05
1pt E/W Dragon Pulse 3.45
4pts WIN Sir Prancealot 4.25
2pts E/W Elyaadi 5.00
If any of you saw my earlier post regarding the ante post look at the meeting, you'd know my feelings about Excelebration. In my mind, Frankel is destined to saunter home for this near £200,000 contest, and Excelebration is 4 nil down in the matches between the pair. He has always finished placed though, and looks better with cut in the ground, with a 3-3 record on genuine soft ground, despite the good in it now, it'll still be relatively deep. I fully expect him to finish second, and with Strong Suit in a third spot, could be a decent tricast.
The King Stand stakes is next up, a cavalry charge that will be over in a blink of an eye. Stone of Folca was great last time, and any of my Twitter followers will testify, I was a happy bunny when he won at 50/1. He is lowest rated here, and I think he will probably finish in the midfield here, but could outrun his odds to knick a place spot. I like Wizz Kid, as he handles ease in the ground and is getting better and better with racing. He was unlucky on every run in this country bar the Champions Sprint run, where he bumped into Deacon Blues, a huge improver last season. I don't think there is a Deacon Blues in here and would suggest him strongly each way.
The St James's Palace Stakes is next, a race for 3 year old colts, and a race I'm not too excited by. The race to me as it is made up of horses who are just a little bit short of top class, involving horses who were placed in Classics, apart from Power, who won the Irish 2000 Guineas last time, beating Foxtrot Romeo, who needs to prove that run wasn't a fluke, as his previous form may suggest, plus Born To Sea, Wrote and Hermival. If I had to have one running for me, then it'd be Dragon Pulse to a small each way stake. He was the victim a messy French race again last time, and in an interesting move, is reunited with Fran Berry, who rode him in Ireland, where he beat Parish Hall and finished half a length behind Power in the Moyglare last season. He looks too big at 12/1, knowing he will handle the ground and a end to end gallop should really suit.
I am delighted connections have chosen to run Sir Prancealot in the Coventry Stakes, after my confidence on the ante post blog last week, and I think he will win. I also think Englishman will run well too, I was impressed with the way he won at Newbury after having not the best runs.
The Ascot Stakes is a race I would never get too involved in also, as it is quite a niche distance and attracts a lot of jumpers. I think a couple are of interest, one more than the other. Monterey was a good winner under a enterprising ride last time, and looks to be improving. The issue is the right handed track and shorter straight, after his antics at Salisbury two starts ago. Elyaadi would be a more confident vote. He has been campaigned for this, with one run after a decent break, and ran second in the Queen Alexandra here last year. He looks a good each way play.
Finally, the Windsor Castle Stakes for 2 year olds over five furlongs. If the ground was quick, I would be keen on Bungle Inthejungle, but I'm worried about the ground with him. In that case, I wouldn't be having a look and would leave it well alone.
Good Luck and hope you all enjoy the great racing on offer.
Will
or @willbowler2k12
ADVISED: 5pts E/W (Place) Excelebration 2.30
2pts E/W Wizz Kid 3.05
1pt E/W Dragon Pulse 3.45
4pts WIN Sir Prancealot 4.25
2pts E/W Elyaadi 5.00
Friday 15 June 2012
My early look at Royal Ascot
The Royal meeting kicks off on Tuesday for five days of thrilling, top class flat racing, and as usual, compelling with runners from all over the globe coming to try and upset the home party, Hong Kong, France, Germany, Australia with the wondermare Black Caviar and the typical strong Irish challenge.
And to add to this, the British contingent ain't too bad either, with Frankel kicking off the meeting in the Queen Anne on Tuesday, alongside horses like Bated Breath, Society Rock, Nahrain and Colour Vision leading the British charge.
I think the race involving Frankel could throw up one of the best of the meeting in the shape of Excelebration at an each way price. He is a very good horse, which some people haven't fully realised behind the utter supremacy that Frankel has in this division. Excelebration has won 6 from 11 starts, and considered his defeats are a debut run, where he needed the run badly, and 4 defeats to Frankel in top level company, but never out the frame. He is also more importantly 3 from 3 on soft ground, which Frankel is relatively unraced on out and ou soft ground, just a debut win at Newmarket, whereas Excelebration has won two Group 2's and a Group 1 when on that soft ground.
I like Wizz Kid in the King Stand stakes but the price has seriously gone. I think he has a massive chance, especially if drawn on the stand side rail, which could be a serious factor on rain softened ground which will be the case for the first day more than any of the other days.
The Coventry looks an absolutely brilliant renewal, with a couple I like in there. Sir Prancealot was breathtaking in the way he won at Sandown, with Richard Hughes apparently loving the feel he got, and the yard being very bullish about his chances. He could have won by 8 or 10 lengths if he hadn't suffered the interference he did. Top Boy who was second in that race could run well at much bigger odds.
On the Wednesday, I am looking forward to seeing Nahrain in the Windsor Forest and think she has a cracking chance if lining up. The Prince Of Wales's Stakes looks a cracker too, with So You Think against Cirrus Des Aigles, but Farrh is a fascinating contender too.
Mironica would be a very good candidate in the Queen Mary on the Wednesday if she contests it after an impressive debut recently for connections who have to be feared when venturing this side of the Irish Sea, even more so with 2 and 3 year olds.
On Thursday, I like Colour Vision at each way prices in the Gold Cup. He was impressive on seasonal reappearance at Kempton on his first start for Godolphin, and is sure to stay from his days with Mark Johnston, and with a cracking run at the track where he was closing on Fame And Glory all the time on Champions Day. I think he is better value than most.
In the Britannia, I really like Anaconda, who went down in plenty a notebook from his very impressive maiden win at Lingfield, and has long been aimed at big field 3 year old handicaps, as his trainer, who had success at this meeting last year, particularly likes him. Also, whichever race Hajras goes for, which is least likely to be that race, needs serious consideration.
The Friday is very tricky to judge at the time of writing this as the handicap entries are not out yet.
Aiken could run well if he lined up in the Hardwicke on the Saturday, and hopefully the hype regarding Black Caviar is confirmed, and in a way which will continue to raise her incredible portfolio all over the world. The Wokingham is the big handicap on the Saturday, with a couple of selections for me. I like High Standing, who ran a race full of promise last weekend at Newmarket, a return to form after a season in the wilderness. He is owned by a renowned gambler, so if there is money from now till the race, take it as a positive. I also like Lightning Cloud if he gets in would have a big chance. He fared by far the best of the ones that came from double figure draws and raced down the centre, showing he has clearly carried on his progressive profile, and providing he gets a half decent draw, must go very close at 20/1.
I'll try to do a daily blog if possible through the week
Will
or @willbowler2k12
ADVISED: (Ante Post, NR/NB if possible)
5pts E/W (place) Excelebration (Queen Anne, Tue)
4pts WIN Sir Prancealot (Coventry, Tue)
2pts E/W Mironica (Queen Mary, Wed)
2pts WIN Nahrain (Windsor Forest, Wed)
3pts E/W Colour Vision (Gold Cup, Thu)
2pts E/W Anaconda (Britannia, Thu)
1pt E/W Hajras (numerous possibilities, Thu & Fri)
1pt WIN Aiken (Hardwicke, Sat)
1pt E/W High Standing (Wokingham, Sat)
2pts E/W Lightning Cloud (Wokingham, Sat)
And to add to this, the British contingent ain't too bad either, with Frankel kicking off the meeting in the Queen Anne on Tuesday, alongside horses like Bated Breath, Society Rock, Nahrain and Colour Vision leading the British charge.
I think the race involving Frankel could throw up one of the best of the meeting in the shape of Excelebration at an each way price. He is a very good horse, which some people haven't fully realised behind the utter supremacy that Frankel has in this division. Excelebration has won 6 from 11 starts, and considered his defeats are a debut run, where he needed the run badly, and 4 defeats to Frankel in top level company, but never out the frame. He is also more importantly 3 from 3 on soft ground, which Frankel is relatively unraced on out and ou soft ground, just a debut win at Newmarket, whereas Excelebration has won two Group 2's and a Group 1 when on that soft ground.
I like Wizz Kid in the King Stand stakes but the price has seriously gone. I think he has a massive chance, especially if drawn on the stand side rail, which could be a serious factor on rain softened ground which will be the case for the first day more than any of the other days.
The Coventry looks an absolutely brilliant renewal, with a couple I like in there. Sir Prancealot was breathtaking in the way he won at Sandown, with Richard Hughes apparently loving the feel he got, and the yard being very bullish about his chances. He could have won by 8 or 10 lengths if he hadn't suffered the interference he did. Top Boy who was second in that race could run well at much bigger odds.
On the Wednesday, I am looking forward to seeing Nahrain in the Windsor Forest and think she has a cracking chance if lining up. The Prince Of Wales's Stakes looks a cracker too, with So You Think against Cirrus Des Aigles, but Farrh is a fascinating contender too.
Mironica would be a very good candidate in the Queen Mary on the Wednesday if she contests it after an impressive debut recently for connections who have to be feared when venturing this side of the Irish Sea, even more so with 2 and 3 year olds.
On Thursday, I like Colour Vision at each way prices in the Gold Cup. He was impressive on seasonal reappearance at Kempton on his first start for Godolphin, and is sure to stay from his days with Mark Johnston, and with a cracking run at the track where he was closing on Fame And Glory all the time on Champions Day. I think he is better value than most.
In the Britannia, I really like Anaconda, who went down in plenty a notebook from his very impressive maiden win at Lingfield, and has long been aimed at big field 3 year old handicaps, as his trainer, who had success at this meeting last year, particularly likes him. Also, whichever race Hajras goes for, which is least likely to be that race, needs serious consideration.
The Friday is very tricky to judge at the time of writing this as the handicap entries are not out yet.
Aiken could run well if he lined up in the Hardwicke on the Saturday, and hopefully the hype regarding Black Caviar is confirmed, and in a way which will continue to raise her incredible portfolio all over the world. The Wokingham is the big handicap on the Saturday, with a couple of selections for me. I like High Standing, who ran a race full of promise last weekend at Newmarket, a return to form after a season in the wilderness. He is owned by a renowned gambler, so if there is money from now till the race, take it as a positive. I also like Lightning Cloud if he gets in would have a big chance. He fared by far the best of the ones that came from double figure draws and raced down the centre, showing he has clearly carried on his progressive profile, and providing he gets a half decent draw, must go very close at 20/1.
I'll try to do a daily blog if possible through the week
Will
or @willbowler2k12
ADVISED: (Ante Post, NR/NB if possible)
5pts E/W (place) Excelebration (Queen Anne, Tue)
4pts WIN Sir Prancealot (Coventry, Tue)
2pts E/W Mironica (Queen Mary, Wed)
2pts WIN Nahrain (Windsor Forest, Wed)
3pts E/W Colour Vision (Gold Cup, Thu)
2pts E/W Anaconda (Britannia, Thu)
1pt E/W Hajras (numerous possibilities, Thu & Fri)
1pt WIN Aiken (Hardwicke, Sat)
1pt E/W High Standing (Wokingham, Sat)
2pts E/W Lightning Cloud (Wokingham, Sat)
Saturday 9 June 2012
My 2-A-Meeting, 09/06/12
A day full of tricky handcaps and non runners, but plenty of value to be had as well I think.
CHESTER: The 2.35 is the first race that represents some value to me, with Van Ellis. He ran a cracker at Epsom last week from a difficult draw, and is a lot less exposed than most in this contest. He is trained by an in form in the shape of Mark Johnston, and must go very close if handling the tight bends of Chester.
Also, I like the look of Stand To Reason in the 3.10, who got turned over by a short head here last time, and with the conditions in the state they are, he should justify favouritism as a horse on the improve against more exposed types.
DONCASTER: Grey Mirage (2.05), is a horse that has been put in many a notebook after an impressive success at Sandown on heavy ground under Silvestre De Sousa, today he has Will Buick on, who is riding out of his skin at the moment, and must be very close to staying unbeaten for the season.
I like the chances of Kingscroft in the 3.45, who was back to form with a good second at Catterick last week and looks an interesting contender. He did all of his winning last year in June and July, recording 7 wins, most with juice in the ground, and most go well in a trappy contest.
HEXHAM: I think one of the most eye-catching runners of the day is The Rodeo Clown in the opener at 1.50. He has been winning point to point, and is back in an ordinary novice hurdle, in which he will handle the bad ground very well, and is a banker.
I have a rule about point to point winners in Hexham bumpers, and the qualifier is Castlelawn in the 5.15. He won a deep ground point and is trained by Lucinda Russell, who won this last year and has had a fair few triumph on rules debut in bumpers after point to point wins, and I think he can be another under a good amateur rider too.
NEWCASTLE: Newcastle go tonight for 7 races with a stack of non runners. Still, there has to be winners in every race and I like the look of Nezami in the 7.15 and Dreaming Of Rubies in the 9.15. Nezami is ridden by a conditional I am following closely in Ned Curtis and has been running well on varying ground recently. The issue is he hasn't won since 2008, but has a good each way chance.
Dreaming Of Rubies is a horse on my NagMe alert system to watch after her great first run in handicap company at York, where she led from the start and got run down close home in better company than today. She is also ridden by Tom Eaves, an underrated tactician, especially from the front and under similar tactics in this lower company, should win if handling the ground. Gowanharry would be the danger as he certainly handles the ground.
NEWMARKET: Pearl Ice is the main selection here in the 2.55 for obvious reasons. He was desperately unlucky at Thirsk two starts ago before winning comfortably at Ripon only 3 days ago, but his trainer has stated he would prefer a double penalty to make sure of a run in the Wokingham handicap at Royal Ascot, as he is ante post favourite. I think he will win. Little Rocky is the other selection in the 3.30. He loves the deep ground on offer at Newmarket on the July course this afternoon, and ran creditably into 3rd last time at Doncaster. He is a good each way bet if 3 places stay.
WINDSOR: Windsor tonight host 7 races in front of a typically good crowd. I like Efistorm in the 7.00. He is 11 now, but likes Windsor, winning here two starts back, and Hayley Turner aboard is another positive. He's fine on soft going as well and I think it's hard to knock him, so should probably win. Welsh Inlet in the 9.00 is the other selection. He won at Brighton on soft two starts ago, and has Richard Hughes aboard, which is rare for that yard, only 1-4 in the last 5 seasons for John Bridger. Each way looks the way to play it for him.
WORCESTER: I like Valento in the 2.45 to make a successful transition to chasing after a winning comeback from a big absence at Kempton. He was good that day and with the assistance of Jason Maguire, against some frustrating sorts, he would be a small win play.
Midnight Tuesday is the other one of interest in the 5.00. He gets on well with Tom Bellamy, and won here last time, with the impression there is at least one more win in him at this stage. Again, he is against some very temperamental rivals such as Warne's Way and William Hogarth. He must go very, very close in this event.
That's it, good luck and enjoy the action
Will
or @willbowler2k12
ADVISED: 2pts E/W Van Ellis 2.35 Chester
2pts WIN Stand To Reason 3.10 Chester
2pts WIN Grey Mirage 2.05 Doncaster
2pts E/W Kingscroft 3.45 Doncaster
3pts WIN The Rodeo Clown 1.50 Hexham
1pt WIN Castlelawn 5.15 Hexham
0.5pt E/W Nezami 7.15 Newcastle
2pts WIN Dreaming Of Rubies 9.15 Newcastle
4pts WIN Pearl Ice 2.55 Newmarket
1pt E/W Little Rocky 3.30 Newmarket
3pts WIN Efistorm 7.00 Windsor
1pt E/W Welsh Inlet 9.00 Windsor
1pt WIN Valento 2.45 Worcester
3pts WIN Midnight Tuesday 5.00 Worcester
CHESTER: The 2.35 is the first race that represents some value to me, with Van Ellis. He ran a cracker at Epsom last week from a difficult draw, and is a lot less exposed than most in this contest. He is trained by an in form in the shape of Mark Johnston, and must go very close if handling the tight bends of Chester.
Also, I like the look of Stand To Reason in the 3.10, who got turned over by a short head here last time, and with the conditions in the state they are, he should justify favouritism as a horse on the improve against more exposed types.
DONCASTER: Grey Mirage (2.05), is a horse that has been put in many a notebook after an impressive success at Sandown on heavy ground under Silvestre De Sousa, today he has Will Buick on, who is riding out of his skin at the moment, and must be very close to staying unbeaten for the season.
I like the chances of Kingscroft in the 3.45, who was back to form with a good second at Catterick last week and looks an interesting contender. He did all of his winning last year in June and July, recording 7 wins, most with juice in the ground, and most go well in a trappy contest.
HEXHAM: I think one of the most eye-catching runners of the day is The Rodeo Clown in the opener at 1.50. He has been winning point to point, and is back in an ordinary novice hurdle, in which he will handle the bad ground very well, and is a banker.
I have a rule about point to point winners in Hexham bumpers, and the qualifier is Castlelawn in the 5.15. He won a deep ground point and is trained by Lucinda Russell, who won this last year and has had a fair few triumph on rules debut in bumpers after point to point wins, and I think he can be another under a good amateur rider too.
NEWCASTLE: Newcastle go tonight for 7 races with a stack of non runners. Still, there has to be winners in every race and I like the look of Nezami in the 7.15 and Dreaming Of Rubies in the 9.15. Nezami is ridden by a conditional I am following closely in Ned Curtis and has been running well on varying ground recently. The issue is he hasn't won since 2008, but has a good each way chance.
Dreaming Of Rubies is a horse on my NagMe alert system to watch after her great first run in handicap company at York, where she led from the start and got run down close home in better company than today. She is also ridden by Tom Eaves, an underrated tactician, especially from the front and under similar tactics in this lower company, should win if handling the ground. Gowanharry would be the danger as he certainly handles the ground.
NEWMARKET: Pearl Ice is the main selection here in the 2.55 for obvious reasons. He was desperately unlucky at Thirsk two starts ago before winning comfortably at Ripon only 3 days ago, but his trainer has stated he would prefer a double penalty to make sure of a run in the Wokingham handicap at Royal Ascot, as he is ante post favourite. I think he will win. Little Rocky is the other selection in the 3.30. He loves the deep ground on offer at Newmarket on the July course this afternoon, and ran creditably into 3rd last time at Doncaster. He is a good each way bet if 3 places stay.
WINDSOR: Windsor tonight host 7 races in front of a typically good crowd. I like Efistorm in the 7.00. He is 11 now, but likes Windsor, winning here two starts back, and Hayley Turner aboard is another positive. He's fine on soft going as well and I think it's hard to knock him, so should probably win. Welsh Inlet in the 9.00 is the other selection. He won at Brighton on soft two starts ago, and has Richard Hughes aboard, which is rare for that yard, only 1-4 in the last 5 seasons for John Bridger. Each way looks the way to play it for him.
WORCESTER: I like Valento in the 2.45 to make a successful transition to chasing after a winning comeback from a big absence at Kempton. He was good that day and with the assistance of Jason Maguire, against some frustrating sorts, he would be a small win play.
Midnight Tuesday is the other one of interest in the 5.00. He gets on well with Tom Bellamy, and won here last time, with the impression there is at least one more win in him at this stage. Again, he is against some very temperamental rivals such as Warne's Way and William Hogarth. He must go very, very close in this event.
That's it, good luck and enjoy the action
Will
or @willbowler2k12
ADVISED: 2pts E/W Van Ellis 2.35 Chester
2pts WIN Stand To Reason 3.10 Chester
2pts WIN Grey Mirage 2.05 Doncaster
2pts E/W Kingscroft 3.45 Doncaster
3pts WIN The Rodeo Clown 1.50 Hexham
1pt WIN Castlelawn 5.15 Hexham
0.5pt E/W Nezami 7.15 Newcastle
2pts WIN Dreaming Of Rubies 9.15 Newcastle
4pts WIN Pearl Ice 2.55 Newmarket
1pt E/W Little Rocky 3.30 Newmarket
3pts WIN Efistorm 7.00 Windsor
1pt E/W Welsh Inlet 9.00 Windsor
1pt WIN Valento 2.45 Worcester
3pts WIN Midnight Tuesday 5.00 Worcester
Saturday 2 June 2012
The Derby- A Horse By Horse Guide
ASTROLOGY: Astrology was visually very impressive when easily beating a small and relatively weak field in the Dee Stakes at Chester on bottomless ground. He has clearly trained on, as he was beat by Rockinante at 2, which was not Richard Hannon's strongest 2 year old last year. He also improved on the ground I think, which would be a worry here, despite breaking his maiden on good ground, I'm just not convinced Good to Firm would particularly suit. I also expect him to lead at a pretty moderate gallop, similar to Chester, and try and use his tactical speed in the final 3 furlongs. I think he is a bit short as an each way option here, but could well get a place.
BONFIRE: Bonfire is the runner most likely to suprise the Ballydoyle camp. He was unlucky in Saint-Cloud as a 2 year old after easily winning his maiden at Salisbury. He was also impressive in a different way at York in the Dante, a good trial for this, when always holding Ektihaam up the straight, for not much pressure from Jimmy Fortune. He has his quirks, when being taken to the stables in his horsebox, but he was well behaved once he got there, and on the way to the start. The fear is the funfair and noise from the grandstands he has to run past going to the start could spark something in his childish side, which would seriously harm his chance. If he doesn't, he has a serious chance of beating Camelot.
CAMELOT: Camelot, the unbeaten Aidan O'Brien trained colt who is the focus of the race in whatever way you look at it. Layers are trying to find a way to beat him, maybe the trip, unraced beyond a mile, even though pedigree suggests he will most certainly stay. Maybe the tactics might catch him out, if he was given too much to do, which nearly happened in the Guineas. The jockeys' inexperience on the track, Joseph O'Brien has only ever had 3 rides before this meeting at Epsom. All of these arguments are potentially valid, but the reputation he has had from an early stage, and the way he won at Newmarket, suggest he could be very, very special. On the other hand, I wouldn't be backing him at 4/6 or 8/13, but would love to see him win well and then go to Doncaster for the Triple Crown bid.
CAVALEIRO: Cavaleiro has been talked about more than your average 66/1 Derby outsider as Hayley Turner is riding him, becoming only the second women ever to ride in this Classic. To me though, that shouldn't be such a story, for a long while, Hayley has proved she is very, very capable of riding winners at big meetings, a dual Group 1 winning jockey herself. In 2008, she rode 100 winners in a calendar year, and this year already she has 48. Back to the horse, he is by Sir Percy, a Derby winner trained by his trainer Marcus Tregoning, so he'll know every little detail about this horse well. His form though lacks a bit, a 7 length beating by Main Sequence last time leaves him well behind, is lowest rated of these, and it took him 4 runs to break his maiden. It would be a suprise if he was even placed for me.
MAIN SEQUENCE: Main Sequence is an unbeaten colt trained by David Lanigan, who as regular readers will know, I admire greatly, especially with his 3 year olds. He has steadily improved, winning a maiden, nursery, handicap and then last time, The Derby Trial at Lingfield, again showing good acceleration and flashing his tail, a trait which he has always shown, beating Shantaram, a good maiden for John Gosden, by just less than a length. I think he is a good each way bet here.
MICKDAAM: Mickdaam won the Chester Vase last time, clinging on from the fast finishing Model Pupil, on awful ground. Trials that week at Chester have been hard to trust due to the extreme going, which is completely different now. The one race he has run on Good To Firm was 11th of 16 in a maiden, which would be a concern, as well as his overall class level, which I think is a little bit short of what is needed. Despite this, it's great for Hanagan and Fahey to have their first runner in this as they, more than most, deserve to have a good one.
MINIMISE RISK: Minimise Risk was nowhere near Mickdaam at Chester, which leaves him miles behind. He might try and force the pace, and was a big money buy, similar to Was yesterday. Realistically, he can't win this and will struggle.
RUGGED CROSS: Rugged Cross is one of a few doubtful stayers, and his trainer hadn't planned to run in this, but the owner Thomas Barr has convinced him to have a go. I was at Newmarket last time, and he is quite small, but does have a good temprement, which will help in the preliminaries. I think he won't stay and will struggle to reverse the form with Thought Worthy.
THOUGHT WORTHY: Thought Worthy has always been at the top of John Gosdens' list of potential runners in this race, and this is his only runner. He ran well at Sandown, when the winner came down the stands side where he couldn't be seen by the others. He then beat Rugged Cross, Noble Mission and Farhaan in a good finish at Nemarket, where he led, then lost ground and the lead in the dip, before finishing well to get back up close home. His brother Lucarno won a St Legar so he is bound to stay, and if he copes with the track, will run well.
OVERALL: I think it appears Camelots' race to lose, with the track the only possible major worry to his chances. The specails on distance could be the way to play. I think Main Sequence is a good each way play at the current price of 8 to 10/1. Also, a small each way on Thought Worthy would be another idea at around 16/1 providing he copes with the track.
Good Luck and enjoy the race
Will
or @willbowler2k12 on Twitter
ADVISED: Camelot to win by 2-3.75 lengths - 2pts 11/2 (Coral)
2pts E/W Main Sequence
1pt E/W Thought Worthy
BONFIRE: Bonfire is the runner most likely to suprise the Ballydoyle camp. He was unlucky in Saint-Cloud as a 2 year old after easily winning his maiden at Salisbury. He was also impressive in a different way at York in the Dante, a good trial for this, when always holding Ektihaam up the straight, for not much pressure from Jimmy Fortune. He has his quirks, when being taken to the stables in his horsebox, but he was well behaved once he got there, and on the way to the start. The fear is the funfair and noise from the grandstands he has to run past going to the start could spark something in his childish side, which would seriously harm his chance. If he doesn't, he has a serious chance of beating Camelot.
CAMELOT: Camelot, the unbeaten Aidan O'Brien trained colt who is the focus of the race in whatever way you look at it. Layers are trying to find a way to beat him, maybe the trip, unraced beyond a mile, even though pedigree suggests he will most certainly stay. Maybe the tactics might catch him out, if he was given too much to do, which nearly happened in the Guineas. The jockeys' inexperience on the track, Joseph O'Brien has only ever had 3 rides before this meeting at Epsom. All of these arguments are potentially valid, but the reputation he has had from an early stage, and the way he won at Newmarket, suggest he could be very, very special. On the other hand, I wouldn't be backing him at 4/6 or 8/13, but would love to see him win well and then go to Doncaster for the Triple Crown bid.
CAVALEIRO: Cavaleiro has been talked about more than your average 66/1 Derby outsider as Hayley Turner is riding him, becoming only the second women ever to ride in this Classic. To me though, that shouldn't be such a story, for a long while, Hayley has proved she is very, very capable of riding winners at big meetings, a dual Group 1 winning jockey herself. In 2008, she rode 100 winners in a calendar year, and this year already she has 48. Back to the horse, he is by Sir Percy, a Derby winner trained by his trainer Marcus Tregoning, so he'll know every little detail about this horse well. His form though lacks a bit, a 7 length beating by Main Sequence last time leaves him well behind, is lowest rated of these, and it took him 4 runs to break his maiden. It would be a suprise if he was even placed for me.
MAIN SEQUENCE: Main Sequence is an unbeaten colt trained by David Lanigan, who as regular readers will know, I admire greatly, especially with his 3 year olds. He has steadily improved, winning a maiden, nursery, handicap and then last time, The Derby Trial at Lingfield, again showing good acceleration and flashing his tail, a trait which he has always shown, beating Shantaram, a good maiden for John Gosden, by just less than a length. I think he is a good each way bet here.
MICKDAAM: Mickdaam won the Chester Vase last time, clinging on from the fast finishing Model Pupil, on awful ground. Trials that week at Chester have been hard to trust due to the extreme going, which is completely different now. The one race he has run on Good To Firm was 11th of 16 in a maiden, which would be a concern, as well as his overall class level, which I think is a little bit short of what is needed. Despite this, it's great for Hanagan and Fahey to have their first runner in this as they, more than most, deserve to have a good one.
MINIMISE RISK: Minimise Risk was nowhere near Mickdaam at Chester, which leaves him miles behind. He might try and force the pace, and was a big money buy, similar to Was yesterday. Realistically, he can't win this and will struggle.
RUGGED CROSS: Rugged Cross is one of a few doubtful stayers, and his trainer hadn't planned to run in this, but the owner Thomas Barr has convinced him to have a go. I was at Newmarket last time, and he is quite small, but does have a good temprement, which will help in the preliminaries. I think he won't stay and will struggle to reverse the form with Thought Worthy.
THOUGHT WORTHY: Thought Worthy has always been at the top of John Gosdens' list of potential runners in this race, and this is his only runner. He ran well at Sandown, when the winner came down the stands side where he couldn't be seen by the others. He then beat Rugged Cross, Noble Mission and Farhaan in a good finish at Nemarket, where he led, then lost ground and the lead in the dip, before finishing well to get back up close home. His brother Lucarno won a St Legar so he is bound to stay, and if he copes with the track, will run well.
OVERALL: I think it appears Camelots' race to lose, with the track the only possible major worry to his chances. The specails on distance could be the way to play. I think Main Sequence is a good each way play at the current price of 8 to 10/1. Also, a small each way on Thought Worthy would be another idea at around 16/1 providing he copes with the track.
Good Luck and enjoy the race
Will
or @willbowler2k12 on Twitter
ADVISED: Camelot to win by 2-3.75 lengths - 2pts 11/2 (Coral)
2pts E/W Main Sequence
1pt E/W Thought Worthy
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