Ebor Meeting Day 4 Preview

What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, and it isn't over yet!! The centre piece of the Ebor festival is of course The Ebor itself, which is run at 3.50 over a mile and three quarters. In this preview, I will look at 4 races from York plus anything else from other meetings that catches the eye on this typically hectic Saturday racing schedule.

2.05 - City Of York Stakes (7f - 9 run)

Cristiforo Colombo has his easiest test for quite a while here.

This looks like a really good opportunity for Cristiforo Colombo to get back in the winner's enclosure for Ryan Moore and Aiden O'Brien. To be honest, I think he is too big at around the 2/1, 9/4 mark, considering he was not disgraced in the Guineas when going off a 10/1 shot, and is now in Listed company. The slight issue is that he has only won the once, and that was on debut, but I don't think he is ungenuine by any means. I reckon that if he replicates any of his last three runs, he wins. Rex Imperator looked rejuvenated in the Stewards Cup when winning it well, and I guess this race looks the most obvious place to go after that. I have a bit of a worry about the trip after seeing him run over seven at Doncaster earlier on in the season where he travelled beautifully and didn't see it out as well as Diescentric who battled back past him to win. Glory Awaits could rout these on a going day, but who knows whether this will be one of those, and the fact remains that his only career win in eleven starts was a 50/1 maiden win at Haydock. Sirius Prospect could go well for Dean Ivory, again if he can show as few of his quirks as possible. But in summary, I think Cristiforo Colombo is nap material here.

2.40 - Melrose Stakes (1m6f - 16 run)

Dark horse Mister Impatience could go well here at a price.

This looks a very difficult handicap to solve indeed. I was lucky enough to be at this meeting last year and saw Guarantee win very nicely from Biographer. Great Hall the top weight looks to be on a massive upward curve and is certainly respected here despite top weight. The favourite is Havana Cooler for Ryan Moore and Luca Cumani, but on the evidence of his run at Goodwood last time out,he lacks a gear. That would be a concern here in a race that demands a bit of class. I think Divergence will struggle to make all like he did at Ffos Las last time out. Irish raider Dark Crusader could go well, but I'm siding with Mister Impatience for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning. With more rain likely to fall, his case becomes twice as convincing because he's actually dropping in grade here after running in the Goodwood Cup, where he ran very well up until half a mile from home, where his stamina hit a brick wall. This course and distance look ideal for him, and as I say, if the heavens open, I'd really fancy him strongly each way at around 16/1.

3.50 - Betfred Ebor (1m6f - 19 run)

Sheikhzayedroad...will the draw scupper his hopes?

I cannot wait for this race to begin! Opinion is the favourite at the time of writing and must be respected after a luckless passage last time out at Haydock under Kieren Fallon. However, I don't consider him to be value whatsoever. Tiger Cliff must go well, providing the ground doesn't ease too much. Ted Veale is one I do fancy for Tony Martin, who has plotted his route to this race with meticulous precision. He won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival under Bryan Cooper in soft ground, and has been kept on the go through the summer with this race in mind. He must be feared by all, but he's not gone unnoticed that's for sure. Sheikhzayedroad is the one I will plump for with most confidence despite the wide draw. He acts with juice in the ground, and is a hold up performer so can be dropped in from his wide draw. Martin Lane has struck up a good relationship with him and I think he will run a big race. I have followed Caravan Rolls On for a good while but he is becoming frustrating and should have won last time. I will chuck a couple of bigger priced runners in the mix for value purposes, Tropical Beat and Saptapadi.

 

Tropical Beat (right) gets nabbed at Haydocklast year by Sir Graham Wade.

Tropical Beat is trained by David O'Meara who has his horses in fine fettle this week, and he hasn't had Tropical Beat in his yard too long since leaving John Gosden. He ran a good race at Musselburgh on his stable debut and comeback after nearly a year off behind Party Line, who ran such a valiant race in defeat here on Wednesday. I think he will go close. Saptapadi has been an old favourite of mine for a long while, so there is a touch of sentimentality associated with this selection. However, he does like York and likes a fast pace over this trip, which will be the case tomorrow. He was fifth in this behind stablemate Moyenne Corniche in 2011 off an 11lb higher mark than today so that side of things all adds up nicely. I just think he could stay on into a place at a juicy price.

5.35 - Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Stakes (5f - 15 run)

Threes Grand running Moviesta to a length at Doncaster in April

A tricky handicap to finish the festival, but I like one quite strongly in this for trainer Scott Dixon. The horse in question is Threes Grand who has useful apprentice Tim Clark in the saddle. He ran an eyecatching race at Doncaster last weekend when slightly checked in his run a furlong out before staying on well for fourth under Jamie Mackay. Jamie may have been a little rusty as he's only had 46 rides this year, with just 2 winners. Tim Clark however has a very good Turf record in 2013, 5-19 with a healthy level stakes profit. This lad ran Moviesta, a subsequent Group 2 winner to a length at Donny in April off a mark of 88, and is 10lbs lower here so should surely figure. The dangers would contain New Fforest and Cosmic Chatter, but I think Threes Grand could be a very good each way bet tomorrow.

Elsewhere?:

I am looking forward to seeing how Mecca's Angel gets on in the Nursery at York at 4.25. She hacked up at Southwell last time in a very fast time, and it was telling that her trainer Michael Dods came to the Nottinghamshire track that night to see her run.
At Goodwood, Valen could run a huge race in the opener at 2.20, a Group 3 for fillies, after a rout at Ffos Las last time out. The feature races though are at 2.55 and 3.30. The 2.55 is a seven furlong handicap with 19 set to go to post. I would really fancy Pythagorean if he was drawn better, but James Doyle will have his work cut out from stall 18. Jack's Revenge, Shebebi and Mabait are others to consider. The 3.30 should go the way of Afsare providing he goes in the stalls okay.
It could pay to do a "John Gosden win double" at Newmarket with progressive pair Fledged (3.20) and Willow Beck (5.05).

David Wachman - Hopefully the man to train a winner at The Curragh.

Finally, The Curragh host a really good card, headlined by War Command in the 4.20. It is not often I'd fancy a newcomer in a sales race, but Insight, who runs in the 3.45 is one of those. He is trained by David Wachman, who trained his sire Bushranger, and the owners had a winner last week at Dundalk in maiden company also by Bushranger. I think it is telling that this lad lines up here on debut, as many of the ones who have runs under their belts haven't achieved a huge amount.

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Be lucky,
Will

York Ebor Festival Day 2 Preview

It's Yorkshire Oaks day on Thursday afternoon on the Knavesmire and it looks a great renewal. Also, one of our dark horses Our Obsession runs in the Listed Galtres Stakes plus a Group 2 for two year old fillies in the Lowther Stakes. In this preview, I will look in detail at the three races I have just mentioned and hopefully find some winners.

2.30 - Lowther Stakes (6f G2 - 9 run)

Can Lucky Kristale defy a 3lb penalty?

A race in which I don't think many can be considered too much. Lucky Kristale ran reasonably well at Royal Ascot before routing a good field at Newmarket. She has to carry a 3lb penalty for winning that Group 2 last time, but is clear on the ratings so should go very close once again. However, J Wonder is the one to be with here for Brian Meehan and Martin Lane after a taking win on the July course last time out. It is rare for a Brian Meehan horse to win first time out, and this filly did just that, before winning readily in a good nursery last time. The main threat might be Kaiulani, who ran very well at Royal Ascot despite greenness. She has had a break since and comes here fresher than most. Also, she is up to six furlongs here which is only going to help and I think she is slightly overpriced at double figure odds.

3.40 - Yorkshire Oaks (1m4f G1 - 8 run)

"Listen, I think she is the one Rishi!!!"

A fantastic race to look forward to that is for sure. The Fugue clearly had excuses at Sandown when scoping dirty in the days afterwards. However, that is a pretty big cloud to have over her head on the run up to such a big race. Wild Coco didn't beat a great deal at Goodwood but did it nicely. I just think she is ever so slightly vulnerable to an improving younger horse as she has to give weight away to those. Secret Gesture has a decent chance here, especially as Jamie Spencer said he rode her last time out to "be balanced on the track rather than ride her to win the race". A slightly odd statement I know, but she was only worn down late on that day, so I'd give her another chance. However, my leading fancy is Venus De Milo for Aiden O'Brien. Ryan Moore gets the leg up as Joseph can't do the weight, but that is no negative. I have been very taken by her turn of foot in her performances this year, especially the last twice when second in the Irish Oaks, and at Cork last time out when routing a Listed field with the minimum of fuss.

4.20 - Galtres Stakes (1m4f Listed - 12 run)

Our Obsession to step up in this Listed race

A Listed race for fillies and mares here, and our dark horse Our Obsession takes her chance at a bit of black type. I think she will be very, very competitive. She was impressive at this course a few weeks ago in handicap company over two furlongs shorter, so the step up in trip will be no problem. She was entered in all the big fillies races and Classics at the start of the season so is clearly well thought of. None of the others actually scare me, but I respect Say and Star Lahib.

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Be lucky
Will

York Ebor meeting Day 1

This meeting holds a special place in the British racing calendar for many racing fans, and after last years duel between Frankel and fresh air, Al Kazeem versus Toronado, Trading Leather, Declaration Of War and Hillstar is a little bit more competitive! We also have a very good renewal of the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday, featuring The Fugue and Wild Coco, the Yorkshire Cup on Friday with Estimate back in action, and to top it off, the Ebor itself on Saturday afternoon.
With a great week ahead of us, it would be good to start on a winning note, and hopefully I can find some for you in this in depth preview of Wednesday's action.

1.55 - Symphony Group Stakes (5f89y - 20 run)

This will be Angels Will Fall's first run in a handicap.

A wide open sprint handicap to start us off, and Above Standard is the early favourite for Mick Easterby and Graham Gibbons. He has improved vastly in the past year, starting with wins on the all weather, but seemed to not stay six furlongs at Goodwood last time after hitting the front and fading close home into fourth place. He does have a peculiar pedigree for sprinting being by Shamardal, but he can certainly run. However, his price doesn't represent much value at 7/1. I saw Doctor Parkes win at Doncaster on Saturday, and he toughed it out well, but is in deeper this time. He also wears a head collar so clearly is a little bit quirky. Demora is a very likeable mare for Mick Appleby, who started winning off a mark of 59, and today races off 90! This trip is ideal and she loves a battle so shouldn't be too far away. Neither should Barnet Fair, trained by the very much in form Richard Guest. Again, five furlongs is definitely his trip and has crack apprentice Connor Beasley taking off a very useful five pounds. Cheviot and Bogart are others with bits of chances, but I like two in particular here, which are Face The Problem and Angels Will Fall. Face The Problem has been loitering on a dangerous mark for a while now and is showing glimmers that he is back to his best, mainly two runs ago behind Barnet Fair. He has been dropped 3lbs after a poor run in the Stewards Cup, and could easily outrun his likely big odds. Angels Will Fall has never run in a handicap and I think she isn't unfairly treated for Charlie Hills, who will celebrates two years as a trainer this week, and Robert Winston, who rides York brilliantly. I think both of these are worth each way plays in a open race.

3.05 - Great Voltigeur Stakes (1m4f G2 - 7 run)

Willie The Whipper could easily outrun his price in trappy race.

This is one of the most recognised trials for the St Leger at Doncaster on the 14th September. Telescope comes here with a slightly suspect profile after a defeat at Haydock last time out when an easy win was expected. I wouldn't be touching him tomorrow after that, because he lacked any sort of turn of foot, unlike all his rivals tomorrow. If he wins tomorrow, then I'll be more than happy to admit I was wrong but 6/4 is very short for a horse that hasn't really done it on the racecourse yet in a Group 2. Cap O'Rushes was a pace maker to the big flop Libertarian in the Irish Derby, but stayed on really doggedly to be fourth, before winning a Group 3 at Goodwood, holding off the enigmatic Excess Knowledge close home by a diminishing neck. I think he is the most solid horse in the race, taking virtually an identical path to Encke who won the Leger last year. Secret Number isn't exactly solid himself after a troublesome passage in that Goodwood race last time. He was very poor on his previous York run in the Dante which is a concern.
Foundry is a complete unknown quantity entering a race like this, but could easily play a part if he's ready to go. However, I'm going to chance Willie The Whipper for Jamie Spencer. He definitely stays the trip and ran a belter in the French Derby behind Intello last time, staying on strongly from last place around the wide outside to be sixth. If the pace is strong enough, then it could play into the hands of this lad who is a hold up type. The ground maybe a concern but his trainer thinks he will be fine on better ground so I'm not too worried about that.

3.40 - Juddmonte International (1m2f G1- 6 run)

What a race! Al Kazeem has taken all before him so far in 2013, winning three Group 1's and looking superior in most departments. He has had a few challengers, mainly Mukhadram and one of todays rivals Declaration Of War, but beaten them all. He is a beautiful horse to look at as well and despite having to give three year olds a bit of weight, he is certainly the one to beat. Toronado has never run at this trip before and over the course of his career has had varying noises coming out of the Hannon camp regarding his optimum trip. After his win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September, they said he was a "Derby horse", but all of this year he has been "speedy" and visually looks to have become much quicker. That won't neccesarily halt his chance tomorrow but I'm not totally convinced he will see out this ten furlongs as well as Al Kazeem.
Trading Leather is the Irish Derby winner and therefore merits plenty of respect as he definitely stays the trip well and should race prominently if not lead on his own. Declaration Of War has a little bit to find with the two principals and Hillstar may be best over further. I don't have a strong view so won't be tipping anything, but it is going to be a race to saviour no matter what.

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Be lucky,
Will

The Shergar Cup best bets

Ascot plays host to a truly international day of racing on Saturday with the Shergar Cup jockeys competition. In this preview, I will highlight what I think are the best four bets for Saturday afternoon.

1) Gerald Mosse Top Jockey (16/1 Ladbrokes)

Gerald Mosse is a fantastic French rider who has had good success on British soil for a number of years. I think he has a solid book of rides including Jack's Revenge, Mutual Regard and Sadler's Risk in particular. I just think he is overpriced in a market I normally wouldn't even look at.

2) Sweetnessandlight each way in the 12.55 (14/1 generally available)

Sweetnessandlight at Southwell, she's certainly improved since then!!!

I think 14/1 about this filly is a huge price in the opening race over a mile for Yasunari Iwata and trainer Jason Ward, who is vastly underestimated and a trainer I follow. This filly has definitely been the flag-bearer for this small operation based at Dante Stables in Middleham. She had a great year last year, rising up to a mark of 100 to start off in 2013. She was beaten a length by Woodland Aria at Leicester in a conditions event before running a belter at Royal Ascot. I felt her best run to date though was last time, again at Ascot in a muddling race where she wasn't very well positioned when they quickened and was caught in a pocket before staying on well late on. She has been steadily dropped by the handicapper and now lines up off a mark of 92. She is a huge price here and demands a fair bit more respect than her price may suggest.

3) Ahtoug to win the 2.05 (4/1 generally available)

Hopefully Joao Moreira will be smiling again after the Shergar Cup Dash.

Ahtoug is a little bit quirky, but looks to have optimum conditions tomorrow afternoon at Ascot. He was a fast finishing third in this race last year under Yutaka Take, and returns off the exact same mark. He has two races lately after a six month absence, both of which he ran well in over this course and distance. He will now be fully fit and should go very close indeed, with Racy as the biggest danger.

4) Shahdaroba each way in the 3.50 (11/2 generally available)

Kieren Fallon rarely rides for Rod Millman.

Shahdaroba looks to have outstanding claims in the Shergar Cup Sprint, the last race of the day at Ascot. Kieren Fallon has ridden just once for the stable in the last five seasons, and Shahdaroba looks to be taking a bit of a drop in class here as well. He ran over a mile at Chepstow last time out, and only got reeled back inside the final furlong, so a drop of two furlongs in trip is definitely not a problem. Most of the other runners are badly out of form and/or inconsistent, which makes him a rattling each way bet for me. Obviously Noble Deed has a big chance, but Fallon is much stronger than Rosie Napravnik which is in Shahdaroba's favour too. If Storm Moon lasted the six furlongs, then he could figure as he's 2-2 on the All Weather, and with the sand based nature of the soil, could outrun his price as well.

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Be lucky,
Will

2013 Flat Dark Horses Half Term report

I felt it was time to give an update on our ten dark horses that I advised back at the end of March. As with the jumpers, we got off to a very bright start with a few winners and we have had a Derby runner, a Goodwood Cup runner and a couple of Royal Ascot runners, which is fantastic. I will try to go for around a paragraph for each horse, telling how they have been getting on and what they might be doing before the jumpers (horses and clothes!) reappear in November.

1) Cannizaro House (T Clement) - Form this season:

Cannizaro House has not been seen or entered up this season so far. I think he is well handicapped but unfortunately I do not know of his fitness or whereabouts so we will wait and see whether any updates appear in the near future.

2) Our Obsession (W Haggas) - Form this season: 1

Our Obsession winning at York

As anyone on Twitter knows, I love this filly. She was entered in the British and Irish Guineas and Oaks', but didn't make any of those engagements, instead running in a fillies handicap at York. She won this decisively despite pulling hard early on and taking a little bit of nudging to close in, but she did it really well by over three lengths. She has been entered in the Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes on Champions Day, which is a clear sign of the way she is rated by her trainer. I am very excited to see where she goes next and is a very good horse.

3) Number One London (B Meehan) - Form this season: 3322066

He is becoming extremely frustrating to say the least. I am convinced he can win off his current mark of 78, but with his quirks, it doesn't make it very easy for us followers. I would be interested if he was purchased to go jumping as well. He reminds me of Gleann Na Ndochais on the jumps dark horses list from last season who placed a lot without winning. I will continue to watch him but he's never a confident bet!

4) Trucanini (C Wall) - Form this season: 321

This likeable filly got off the mark for us only last night at Yarmouth by a short head under George Baker which was pleasing. She has a good attitude and bumped into a good one at Haydock on her previous start, who is entered in a Listed race on Saturday. I'm sure she will continue to run well once she has been re-assessed and is definitely one to follow.

5) Mirsaale (J Tate) - Form this season: 197

Mirsaale has been a flag bearer for us this season, with his win in the Derby Trial at Epsom in April setting off dreams of the big one itself. He couldn't land a blow there and neither could he in a Group race against older horses at Sandown last time dropped to a mile and a quarter. I'd like to see him return to Epsom for a conditions/Listed race if the schedule allows in the future as he looks hard to place given his mark of 105.

6) If So (J Fanshawe) - Form this season: 1130

This filly won a brace of Lingfield sprint handicaps against her own sex back in May and ran very well at Kempton behind a couple of progressive types next time. I'm tempted to forgive her last run at Newmarket on the July course as she got no cover and I would imagine she would be winning again for us before the end of the season.

7) Twenty One Choice (E De Giles) - Form this season: 153

I really like this horse, and reckon he could be above a handicapper on Polytrack in particular. He won decisively at Kempton back in April, and followed that up with a huge run at Ascot in a big field, where he just failed to see out the mile trip. He ran okay at Ayr next time and remains one to follow closely.

8) Self Employed (G Woodward) - Form this season: 69

There are positives and negatives with this lightly raced six year old. He is from a yard who doesn't have many winners at all, and therefore we may never know fully how good this horse is. However, he stayed on quite nicely last time at Thirsk and has dropped to a mark of 69, which is much more realistic. I think he may be able to win a soft ground handicap before the winter is out, and could be a Fibresand horse too.

9) Mister Impatience (M Johnston) - Form this season: 1424430

After an absolute rout at Doncaster on the opening day of the Flat turf season in March, his mark went up 11lbs. He didn't like Epsom much at all next time, before a second to the subsequent Derby winner at Chester in the Chester Vase. Fourth in the Queens Vase was a great effort before a third to stablemates Maputo and Alta Lilea at Hamilton which was fine. He ran a great race in the Goodwood Cup for a long way as well. I'd give him a break and bring him back fresh on soft ground which he adores.

10) Hassle (C Cox) - Form this season: 42 (RUNS TONIGHT AT SANDOWN)

This colt by Montjeu has ran two races full of promise so far this season in maiden company and tonight goes in handicap company for the first time off a mark of 79. I think he will be very competitive and if tonight isn't the night, I don't think he will have to wait very long to get off the mark. He is also in next Wednesday at Ffos Las (under a penalty?!)

So 7 wins so far from six different horses is great, let's hope all ten can win before the end of the season.

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Be lucky,
Will