The Will To Win 20 Horses to Follow for the 2013-14 Jumps season

Another season means another set of horses to follow, and this time I have increased from ten to twenty to try and get even more winners. There is no particular order to the list and I would recommend putting them all in a tracker system, and hopefully watch the winners flow. 

Ballyalton dotted up at Uttoxeter last week

1) Ballyalton (I Williams) – This big, imposing type impressed me when I saw him at Southwell last year where he finished second to Imperial Leader, a nice type in his own right. His seasonal reappearance at Uttoxeter last weekend was scintillating, winning by fifteen lengths, jumping very well. He has won point to points so should stay further in time and jump fences. He looks a very, very exciting prospect. 

2) Red Devil Boys (J Ferguson) – Red Devil Boys hasn’t been seen since a very cosy novice hurdle win at Doncaster just after Christmas, but is a horse I am particularly looking forward to seeing out this term. He looks to have enormous potential. 

3) Fourjacks (T Easterby) – This lad really impressed at Wetherby on his chase debut last January when he beat Poole Master from the David Pipe yard. He was then beaten in the Towton before getting back to winning ways at Market Rasen in a small race. His season culminated at the Cheltenham Festival where he was struggling throughout in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase on Day 1, pulling up in the end. I still think his mark has scope as he is still lightly raced and there are quite a few races in the North for him. 

4) Clever Cookie (P Niven) – Unbeaten so far - a smooth win at Musselburgh on debut was followed up under a penalty in hard fought style at Market Rasen under Jason Maguire, spread eight months apart. The biggest question is how long he stays with Peter Niven, which nobody knows, but if he does, then I think he will certainly be winning northern novice hurdles and is one to keep on side.

5) Cue To Cue (K Reveley) – Keith Reveley’s mare improved no end last season, starting with a runaway win in a Southwell handicap hurdle when jockey James Reveley said afterwards that he “really likes her for the future”. She was then a pretty close second to former Champion Hurdle second Peddlers Cross at Musselburgh but what seemed a below par effort at Doncaster. However, nothing made up much ground in that race because of a slow pace throughout and also three miles may just stretch her a little. If they decide to go down the mares novices chase route, then she could do very well as the most common distance in the elite mares novices chases historically has been 2m5f, which is her optimum. I think she is well handicapped and one to follow over either hurdles or fences.

6) It’s A Steal (E Williams) – It’s A Steal basically looked a bit immature last season in a couple of novice hurdle defeats at Sedgefield, not an easy track for an immature horse with its undulations. He has won a point to point and fences will be the making of him, it’s just a question of when they try them - this season or next. If it is the 14/15 season, then he will definitely win hurdle races this season, but I will be really encouraged if he does go chasing. Regardless of which option they choose, he is one to watch very closely.

7) Just Popsy (H Main) – Clearly not the easiest based on her antics at Lingfield on debut where she drifted violently left and lost a lot of ground straight away. She then pulled fiercely hard but ran well all the same to be fifth. She then ran in a much classier bumper at Warwick next time which has produced plenty of winners, finishing seventh and shaping in a much more professional manner. She is a seven year old but I think she is quite interesting to watch in the 13/14 season. 

Regal Encore - My favourite horse in training by far!

8) Regal Encore (A Honeyball) – My favourite horse in training without a doubt. I was lucky enough to be at Southwell when he won without turning a hair. I had to wait quite a while to see him again but he didn’t disappoint when hosing up at Chepstow under AP McCoy. Another pretty big gap then until his next run, which came in the Cheltenham Festival bumper, where he travelled very strongly as usual but couldn’t live with the gigantic stride of Briar Hill. However, he still stayed on well to finish a clear second without having too hard a race and now embarks on a hurdles campaign which I can’t wait for. He reminds me of Champion Hurdle winner, Binocular and fingers crossed that by the end of the season, he will be well up the market for the 2015 Champion Hurdle.  

9) Cape York (M Jefferson) – I was impressed by him when I saw him at Uttoxeter in November, where he was a bit too green to do himself justice, but has steadily become more street wise, a good fourth at Haydock before winning at Market Rasen. I think he is one to follow hurdling at a fair level in the North. 

10) Emperor Commodos (R Mathew) – A slightly quirky one here from an unconventional yard. The main reason why I included him are that his last run at Folkestone was extremely eyecatching (you will see why if you watch it). I think he needs three miles on bad ground in handicap company (needs one more run for a mark) and I think he could develop into a fair horse for a capable, small yard. 

11) Wing Mira (V Williams) – This lad is a definite winner for this season. He shaped with plenty of promise on deep ground at Bangor on debut in a bumper, before another decent effort at Huntingdon when he took a bit of a tug and stayed on at the one pace. I’m sure he’ll win over hurdles if he doesn’t mop up a bumper first. 

12) Take The Mick (V Williams) -  A very dark one here, again from the Venetia Williams yard. I think his mark of 101 is lenient and if upped to three miles I think he will get off the mark. He didn’t get much room on the bends at Ludlow last time before staying on really well late in the day for fourth. I just think he is very well handicapped and I couldn’t leave him out. 

 

O'Faolains Boy is a horse I really like

13) O’Faolains Boy (Rebecca Curtis) – This big, imposing lad could be my idea of the RSA Chase winner come March. I was very impressed by him on more than one occasion last season, from a Chepstow bumper win, and then another win there over hurdles before a step up in trip to three miles for another win at Bangor. His final run was superb though, fourth in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham behind At Fishers Cross, African Gold and Inish Island. He has won a point and he is definitely one to follow for all the big three mile novice chases. 

14) Fourovakind (H Whittington) – A flag bearer for rookie trainer Harry Whittington last season with wins at Uttoxeter and Chepstow under Jerry McGrath before a good second at Exeter on his final start. He could develop into a Pertemps Final horse as he has only had four runs over hurdles and could still be improving. 

 

Wingtips

15) Wingtips (A Martin) - I think this lad could develop into the Tony Martin County Hurdle horse. He has a high cruising speed but was probably a smidgen off the top horses in novice company. He is one to watch before Cheltenham, because something like the Betfair Hurdle could fit the bill quite well.

16) Rydon Pynes (M Hill) – Martin Hill is a trainer I follow and this horse certainly has potential to be a leading light for the yard this winter based on his good showings in an all weather bumper and a couple of novice hurdles. He needs one more run for a mark and is definitely one to follow this season. 

17) Ruben Cotter (P Nicholls) – A staying chaser to follow, particularly after the way he won at Doncaster earlier this season beating a nice horse in Vintage Star. He fell next time and was put away after that, but could develop into a horse that could go well in races like the Badger Ales at Wincanton or a number of races at the Festival. 

18) Marrakech Trader (R Dobbin) – This flashy chestnut ran a very nice race on debut to be second at Wetherby for Rose Dobbin, a young trainer just starting to build up a nice stable of young horses with decent futures, and this horse is one of them. He could well pick up a Northern bumper before embarking on a hurdling career, which should also prove fruitful. 

19) Urcalin (D Arbuthnot) – Urcalin is a horse with a turn of foot, especially judged on his win at Stratford in April. He is rated 119 over hurdles, so therefore is eligible for plenty of handicap hurdles at places like Taunton and Ludlow, both sharp, speedy tracks that will play to his strengths. One to follow granted two miles and a decent pace. 

20) Gone Too Far (A King) – Gone Too Far looks a very nice type for Alan King based on his Kempton bumper win, which has produced plenty of winners including Hannibal The Great who also looks above average. He is a nice stamp of a horse and Alan King has been pretty bullish about him since that win at Kempton in May and is very much one to follow in high level novice hurdles.

    I hope you have enjoyed reading these and fingers crossed for plenty of winners.

    Be lucky,

    Will

Ebor Meeting Day 4 Preview

What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, and it isn't over yet!! The centre piece of the Ebor festival is of course The Ebor itself, which is run at 3.50 over a mile and three quarters. In this preview, I will look at 4 races from York plus anything else from other meetings that catches the eye on this typically hectic Saturday racing schedule.

2.05 - City Of York Stakes (7f - 9 run)

Cristiforo Colombo has his easiest test for quite a while here.

This looks like a really good opportunity for Cristiforo Colombo to get back in the winner's enclosure for Ryan Moore and Aiden O'Brien. To be honest, I think he is too big at around the 2/1, 9/4 mark, considering he was not disgraced in the Guineas when going off a 10/1 shot, and is now in Listed company. The slight issue is that he has only won the once, and that was on debut, but I don't think he is ungenuine by any means. I reckon that if he replicates any of his last three runs, he wins. Rex Imperator looked rejuvenated in the Stewards Cup when winning it well, and I guess this race looks the most obvious place to go after that. I have a bit of a worry about the trip after seeing him run over seven at Doncaster earlier on in the season where he travelled beautifully and didn't see it out as well as Diescentric who battled back past him to win. Glory Awaits could rout these on a going day, but who knows whether this will be one of those, and the fact remains that his only career win in eleven starts was a 50/1 maiden win at Haydock. Sirius Prospect could go well for Dean Ivory, again if he can show as few of his quirks as possible. But in summary, I think Cristiforo Colombo is nap material here.

2.40 - Melrose Stakes (1m6f - 16 run)

Dark horse Mister Impatience could go well here at a price.

This looks a very difficult handicap to solve indeed. I was lucky enough to be at this meeting last year and saw Guarantee win very nicely from Biographer. Great Hall the top weight looks to be on a massive upward curve and is certainly respected here despite top weight. The favourite is Havana Cooler for Ryan Moore and Luca Cumani, but on the evidence of his run at Goodwood last time out,he lacks a gear. That would be a concern here in a race that demands a bit of class. I think Divergence will struggle to make all like he did at Ffos Las last time out. Irish raider Dark Crusader could go well, but I'm siding with Mister Impatience for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning. With more rain likely to fall, his case becomes twice as convincing because he's actually dropping in grade here after running in the Goodwood Cup, where he ran very well up until half a mile from home, where his stamina hit a brick wall. This course and distance look ideal for him, and as I say, if the heavens open, I'd really fancy him strongly each way at around 16/1.

3.50 - Betfred Ebor (1m6f - 19 run)

Sheikhzayedroad...will the draw scupper his hopes?

I cannot wait for this race to begin! Opinion is the favourite at the time of writing and must be respected after a luckless passage last time out at Haydock under Kieren Fallon. However, I don't consider him to be value whatsoever. Tiger Cliff must go well, providing the ground doesn't ease too much. Ted Veale is one I do fancy for Tony Martin, who has plotted his route to this race with meticulous precision. He won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival under Bryan Cooper in soft ground, and has been kept on the go through the summer with this race in mind. He must be feared by all, but he's not gone unnoticed that's for sure. Sheikhzayedroad is the one I will plump for with most confidence despite the wide draw. He acts with juice in the ground, and is a hold up performer so can be dropped in from his wide draw. Martin Lane has struck up a good relationship with him and I think he will run a big race. I have followed Caravan Rolls On for a good while but he is becoming frustrating and should have won last time. I will chuck a couple of bigger priced runners in the mix for value purposes, Tropical Beat and Saptapadi.

 

Tropical Beat (right) gets nabbed at Haydocklast year by Sir Graham Wade.

Tropical Beat is trained by David O'Meara who has his horses in fine fettle this week, and he hasn't had Tropical Beat in his yard too long since leaving John Gosden. He ran a good race at Musselburgh on his stable debut and comeback after nearly a year off behind Party Line, who ran such a valiant race in defeat here on Wednesday. I think he will go close. Saptapadi has been an old favourite of mine for a long while, so there is a touch of sentimentality associated with this selection. However, he does like York and likes a fast pace over this trip, which will be the case tomorrow. He was fifth in this behind stablemate Moyenne Corniche in 2011 off an 11lb higher mark than today so that side of things all adds up nicely. I just think he could stay on into a place at a juicy price.

5.35 - Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Stakes (5f - 15 run)

Threes Grand running Moviesta to a length at Doncaster in April

A tricky handicap to finish the festival, but I like one quite strongly in this for trainer Scott Dixon. The horse in question is Threes Grand who has useful apprentice Tim Clark in the saddle. He ran an eyecatching race at Doncaster last weekend when slightly checked in his run a furlong out before staying on well for fourth under Jamie Mackay. Jamie may have been a little rusty as he's only had 46 rides this year, with just 2 winners. Tim Clark however has a very good Turf record in 2013, 5-19 with a healthy level stakes profit. This lad ran Moviesta, a subsequent Group 2 winner to a length at Donny in April off a mark of 88, and is 10lbs lower here so should surely figure. The dangers would contain New Fforest and Cosmic Chatter, but I think Threes Grand could be a very good each way bet tomorrow.

Elsewhere?:

I am looking forward to seeing how Mecca's Angel gets on in the Nursery at York at 4.25. She hacked up at Southwell last time in a very fast time, and it was telling that her trainer Michael Dods came to the Nottinghamshire track that night to see her run.
At Goodwood, Valen could run a huge race in the opener at 2.20, a Group 3 for fillies, after a rout at Ffos Las last time out. The feature races though are at 2.55 and 3.30. The 2.55 is a seven furlong handicap with 19 set to go to post. I would really fancy Pythagorean if he was drawn better, but James Doyle will have his work cut out from stall 18. Jack's Revenge, Shebebi and Mabait are others to consider. The 3.30 should go the way of Afsare providing he goes in the stalls okay.
It could pay to do a "John Gosden win double" at Newmarket with progressive pair Fledged (3.20) and Willow Beck (5.05).

David Wachman - Hopefully the man to train a winner at The Curragh.

Finally, The Curragh host a really good card, headlined by War Command in the 4.20. It is not often I'd fancy a newcomer in a sales race, but Insight, who runs in the 3.45 is one of those. He is trained by David Wachman, who trained his sire Bushranger, and the owners had a winner last week at Dundalk in maiden company also by Bushranger. I think it is telling that this lad lines up here on debut, as many of the ones who have runs under their belts haven't achieved a huge amount.

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Be lucky,
Will

York Ebor Festival Day 2 Preview

It's Yorkshire Oaks day on Thursday afternoon on the Knavesmire and it looks a great renewal. Also, one of our dark horses Our Obsession runs in the Listed Galtres Stakes plus a Group 2 for two year old fillies in the Lowther Stakes. In this preview, I will look in detail at the three races I have just mentioned and hopefully find some winners.

2.30 - Lowther Stakes (6f G2 - 9 run)

Can Lucky Kristale defy a 3lb penalty?

A race in which I don't think many can be considered too much. Lucky Kristale ran reasonably well at Royal Ascot before routing a good field at Newmarket. She has to carry a 3lb penalty for winning that Group 2 last time, but is clear on the ratings so should go very close once again. However, J Wonder is the one to be with here for Brian Meehan and Martin Lane after a taking win on the July course last time out. It is rare for a Brian Meehan horse to win first time out, and this filly did just that, before winning readily in a good nursery last time. The main threat might be Kaiulani, who ran very well at Royal Ascot despite greenness. She has had a break since and comes here fresher than most. Also, she is up to six furlongs here which is only going to help and I think she is slightly overpriced at double figure odds.

3.40 - Yorkshire Oaks (1m4f G1 - 8 run)

"Listen, I think she is the one Rishi!!!"

A fantastic race to look forward to that is for sure. The Fugue clearly had excuses at Sandown when scoping dirty in the days afterwards. However, that is a pretty big cloud to have over her head on the run up to such a big race. Wild Coco didn't beat a great deal at Goodwood but did it nicely. I just think she is ever so slightly vulnerable to an improving younger horse as she has to give weight away to those. Secret Gesture has a decent chance here, especially as Jamie Spencer said he rode her last time out to "be balanced on the track rather than ride her to win the race". A slightly odd statement I know, but she was only worn down late on that day, so I'd give her another chance. However, my leading fancy is Venus De Milo for Aiden O'Brien. Ryan Moore gets the leg up as Joseph can't do the weight, but that is no negative. I have been very taken by her turn of foot in her performances this year, especially the last twice when second in the Irish Oaks, and at Cork last time out when routing a Listed field with the minimum of fuss.

4.20 - Galtres Stakes (1m4f Listed - 12 run)

Our Obsession to step up in this Listed race

A Listed race for fillies and mares here, and our dark horse Our Obsession takes her chance at a bit of black type. I think she will be very, very competitive. She was impressive at this course a few weeks ago in handicap company over two furlongs shorter, so the step up in trip will be no problem. She was entered in all the big fillies races and Classics at the start of the season so is clearly well thought of. None of the others actually scare me, but I respect Say and Star Lahib.

Any feedback? Either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky
Will

York Ebor meeting Day 1

This meeting holds a special place in the British racing calendar for many racing fans, and after last years duel between Frankel and fresh air, Al Kazeem versus Toronado, Trading Leather, Declaration Of War and Hillstar is a little bit more competitive! We also have a very good renewal of the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday, featuring The Fugue and Wild Coco, the Yorkshire Cup on Friday with Estimate back in action, and to top it off, the Ebor itself on Saturday afternoon.
With a great week ahead of us, it would be good to start on a winning note, and hopefully I can find some for you in this in depth preview of Wednesday's action.

1.55 - Symphony Group Stakes (5f89y - 20 run)

This will be Angels Will Fall's first run in a handicap.

A wide open sprint handicap to start us off, and Above Standard is the early favourite for Mick Easterby and Graham Gibbons. He has improved vastly in the past year, starting with wins on the all weather, but seemed to not stay six furlongs at Goodwood last time after hitting the front and fading close home into fourth place. He does have a peculiar pedigree for sprinting being by Shamardal, but he can certainly run. However, his price doesn't represent much value at 7/1. I saw Doctor Parkes win at Doncaster on Saturday, and he toughed it out well, but is in deeper this time. He also wears a head collar so clearly is a little bit quirky. Demora is a very likeable mare for Mick Appleby, who started winning off a mark of 59, and today races off 90! This trip is ideal and she loves a battle so shouldn't be too far away. Neither should Barnet Fair, trained by the very much in form Richard Guest. Again, five furlongs is definitely his trip and has crack apprentice Connor Beasley taking off a very useful five pounds. Cheviot and Bogart are others with bits of chances, but I like two in particular here, which are Face The Problem and Angels Will Fall. Face The Problem has been loitering on a dangerous mark for a while now and is showing glimmers that he is back to his best, mainly two runs ago behind Barnet Fair. He has been dropped 3lbs after a poor run in the Stewards Cup, and could easily outrun his likely big odds. Angels Will Fall has never run in a handicap and I think she isn't unfairly treated for Charlie Hills, who will celebrates two years as a trainer this week, and Robert Winston, who rides York brilliantly. I think both of these are worth each way plays in a open race.

3.05 - Great Voltigeur Stakes (1m4f G2 - 7 run)

Willie The Whipper could easily outrun his price in trappy race.

This is one of the most recognised trials for the St Leger at Doncaster on the 14th September. Telescope comes here with a slightly suspect profile after a defeat at Haydock last time out when an easy win was expected. I wouldn't be touching him tomorrow after that, because he lacked any sort of turn of foot, unlike all his rivals tomorrow. If he wins tomorrow, then I'll be more than happy to admit I was wrong but 6/4 is very short for a horse that hasn't really done it on the racecourse yet in a Group 2. Cap O'Rushes was a pace maker to the big flop Libertarian in the Irish Derby, but stayed on really doggedly to be fourth, before winning a Group 3 at Goodwood, holding off the enigmatic Excess Knowledge close home by a diminishing neck. I think he is the most solid horse in the race, taking virtually an identical path to Encke who won the Leger last year. Secret Number isn't exactly solid himself after a troublesome passage in that Goodwood race last time. He was very poor on his previous York run in the Dante which is a concern.
Foundry is a complete unknown quantity entering a race like this, but could easily play a part if he's ready to go. However, I'm going to chance Willie The Whipper for Jamie Spencer. He definitely stays the trip and ran a belter in the French Derby behind Intello last time, staying on strongly from last place around the wide outside to be sixth. If the pace is strong enough, then it could play into the hands of this lad who is a hold up type. The ground maybe a concern but his trainer thinks he will be fine on better ground so I'm not too worried about that.

3.40 - Juddmonte International (1m2f G1- 6 run)

What a race! Al Kazeem has taken all before him so far in 2013, winning three Group 1's and looking superior in most departments. He has had a few challengers, mainly Mukhadram and one of todays rivals Declaration Of War, but beaten them all. He is a beautiful horse to look at as well and despite having to give three year olds a bit of weight, he is certainly the one to beat. Toronado has never run at this trip before and over the course of his career has had varying noises coming out of the Hannon camp regarding his optimum trip. After his win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September, they said he was a "Derby horse", but all of this year he has been "speedy" and visually looks to have become much quicker. That won't neccesarily halt his chance tomorrow but I'm not totally convinced he will see out this ten furlongs as well as Al Kazeem.
Trading Leather is the Irish Derby winner and therefore merits plenty of respect as he definitely stays the trip well and should race prominently if not lead on his own. Declaration Of War has a little bit to find with the two principals and Hillstar may be best over further. I don't have a strong view so won't be tipping anything, but it is going to be a race to saviour no matter what.

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Be lucky,
Will