Cheltenham hosts a fantastic card on Saturday, with the Argento Chase the feature. In this preview I will have a look at each race individually and try and find as many winners as possible.
12.10 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial - 2m:
This Grade 2 event has attracted a good field of nine who will take their chance. Irish Saint will be hard to beat after his Kempton romp over Christmas, on very testing ground, he jumped well on the whole and created a nice impression. I know nothing about Rolling Star, who has won his only start over hurdles at Auteuil. He does however represent connections that are always feared in these contests. Knight Of Pleasure caused an upset when he won at Sandown last time, but that was a weaker race than this. Roc D'Apsis was a well beaten third here last time and will have to step up to win this, but could grab a place again. The one I do like each way is Last Shadow, who was a big eye-catcher last time at Doncaster. He was an improver on the Flat in the Summer and certainly enjoys very soft ground. He will have come on a lot for the experience last time and could be the value behind Irish Saint.
12.40 Timeform Novices Handicap Chase - 2m5f:
Rajdhani Express heads the weights for course chairman Robert Waley-Cohen, and has leading claims after an easy win on Boxing Day at Kempton. However, he has never run left handed and has more on his plate off a mark of 142. Johns Spirit will be popular after bumping into Katenko last time at Sandown, maybe stretching his stamina a little too much. He is down in trip and thriving at the moment and must be feared by all. The one I like most though is Ballygarvey, trained by Phillip Hobbs. He is 2-2 on heavy ground, with both wins at Lingfield, the second of which was last time out when he won as he liked making all. I think he still looks reasonably well handicapped on this ground and should run his race once again. Bennys Mist also has a chance for the in form Venetia Williams.
1.15 Murphy Group Chase (Handicap) - 2m5f:
This looks a belter of a handicap, headed in the weights by the Cheltenham standing dish Poquelin, who will try his heart out but I think he'll find a couple too good. Bold Sir Brian is a horse with a big future (The Gold Cup on the agenda), and has been very impressive all season. He has a big chance here if handling the track. Katenko is very similar in that his facile success at Sandown last time moved him on to the bottom of some Gold Cup and Grand National tissues, but this trip would be a bare minimum for him I'd say. Pacha Du Polder has work to do to turn around the form with Bold Sir Brian from Sandown, but some think he's well handicapped. I'd say he is risky. Bless The Wings looks one of the more solid, as he has course form, a win on this card last year, and is in form. The ground however is the big worry. I'd chance Quincy Des Pictons at a bigger price for Alan Jones, who is very nicely weighted, and loves testing ground. He ran on well at the Festival and has place claims for sure. Bold Sir Brian however is the win selection.
1.50 Victor Chandler Chase - 2m:
Two words, Sprinter Sacre. He is superb, elegance personified and utterly awesome. He will win, and with any luck Sanctuaire will be placed behind him once more. He went off like a scolded cat in the Tingle Creek, but was more conservatively ridden when winning easily since. William's Wishes is very interesting up in grade, but is surely going for a place prize behind Sprinter Sacre.
2.25 Argento Chase - 3m1f110y:
This years renewal is missing Bobs Worth, but looks very competitive in his absence. The betting is headed by Tidal Bay, who at the time of writing is a doubtful runner. Last years second has won a Bet365 Gold Cup and a Lexus Chase since that race, and is at the peak of his powers at present. He is a 12 year old, just like comeback kid Imperial Commander. He is a past Gold Cup and Ryanair winner and has a fantastic record fresh. Regardless of where he finishes, it is great to see him back. Grand Crus has claims, but the ground will most surely be a worry and this trip may just stretch him a little bit as well. Last years winner Midnight Chase could well repeat the dose if he is allowed his own way up front again, and looks a shade too big at 14/1. Hunt Ball will have his stamina well and truly tested in this contest and I'll swerve him. Of the others, Wayward Prince could go well for Jack Doyle but if Tidal Bay turns up, he will be hard to beat.
3.00 Neptune Novice Hurdle - 2m4f110y:
Despite there only being five runners, this is a fantastic race. Coneygree will attempt to make all under Mattie Batchelor, and may be tough to catch. He is very likeable and has great course form. However, he is against two very good horses with proven high class form. The first is The New One, who was very impressive at Warwick last time out but scored here earlier on in the season. If you were to have a doubt, it would be his hurdling technique. At Fishers Cross is the other horse of huge interest. His jumping isn't too clever at all, but he has a serious engine and won well here last time in handicap company. Whisper is the other with a chance, unbeaten to date with two impressive wins at Ffos Las. I was on track when he won his bumper, and he was the nicest looking horse I saw all day too. He has a lot of ability, but will need to be very good to beat these. I'll marginally go for At Fishers Cross, but a great race to look forward to.
3.35 Rewards4Racing Cleeve Hurdle - 3m:
This World Hurdle trial has attracted a fascinating line-up of 10. Oscar Whisky is favourite, but I want to take him on over three miles on bad ground. He is a horse who has sprung up many debates within racing as to what is his best Festival option. I say skip Cheltenham and go for the Aintree Hurdle a fresh horse, but many disagree. Reve De Sivola routed his field at last time at Ascot, and stays really well. He is the safest win option and will be involved at the business end. Kauto Stone will raise some eyebrows running over hurdles, but I feel he is best fresh and was disappointing last time in the King George. Walkon and Kentford Grey Lady are interesting, but again, two and a half miles would be their prefered distance. I'll chance old Knockara Beau each way, who was second in this two years ago. He is getting a bit old, but has Paddy Brennan aboard and seems to run well at Cheltenham, sixth in the Gold Cup last March his latest run. He is no 40/1 chance in my opinion that's for sure.
4.10 Steel Plate and Sections Handicap Hurdle - 2m1f:
As ever, a fiercely competitive handicap to end the card. I have followed Lord Of House all season long, culminating in a very easy win at Sandown last time out. The handicapper has bumped him up 15lbs though which makes life tougher. He should still go well. Sadler's Risk will be high on the shortlist, a smart juvenile hurdler who has a mark of 148 to defy, which may prove tricky. Barbatos has had a year off but is very smart at his peak. I'll let him run, because I think he will be better for it. Dildar doesn't jump very well but does look very well handicapped if he can get his act together. Bourne and His Excellency both have chances as well but I really like Mr Watson for Tony McCoy. He ran very well here all things considered two starts ago, before hacking up at Plumpton in a first time hood. I think his mark of 127 looks very leniant and he may well strike under the champ.
Selections:
12.10 - Irish Saint win/Last Shadow each way
12.40 - Ballygarvey
1.15 - Bold Sir Brian/Bless The Wings/Quincy Des Pictons
1.50 - Sprinter Sacre / Sanctuaire each way
2.25 - Tidal Bay/ Midnight Chase each way
3.00 - At Fishers Cross
3.35 - Reve De Sivola/Knockara Beau each way
4.10 - Mr Watson/Lord Of House
Any Feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12.
Thanks for reading and be lucky,
Will
Friday 25 January 2013
Thursday 17 January 2013
Betfair Hurdle Ante Post Preview
The Betfair Hurdle is usually a wide open affair run over the minimum trip of two miles. Run at Newbury, this handicap hurdle is normally run at a very fast pace with some trainers using it as a stepping stone to the Champion hurdle; the last to do the double was Make A Stand in 1997. Last year's winner Zarkandar is now a big contender for the Champion Hurdle. The aim of this piece is to spot a few horses at nice prices that will hopefully run and run well come the 9th of February.
The stand-out horse in the market at this stage is My Tent Or Yours trained by Nicky Henderson. He has a virtually identical profile to the yard's Darlan, who ran in this as a novice last season and took a crunching fall two out. Darlan had a mark of 146, whereas My Tent Or Yours has a mark of 149. He was unsuited by heavy ground and a steady pace here on his penultimate start, before winning very nicely at Huntingdon. If you were to have doubts, his keenness in running and tendency to knock a hurdle would be slight worries.
Pearl Swan has to be feared for Paul Nicholls, who thinks he is well handicapped off 146. The big issue with him is whether he will be ready in time, but if he is, he has each way possibilities with his top novice form last season.
Cash And Go is a beautiful horse to look at, but has a few jumping issues to address before I can get involved with him at the price he is. Swing Bowler has to be feared as she is still unbeaten, but will she get in? If she does, then she would have a chance despite a big step up in grade for her.
For me though, the horse to beat is Cause Of Causes trained by Gordon Elliott. He won the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot at big odds two starts ago, before fighting off Midnight Oil at Navan in a small field which wouldn't have suited him very well. He loves coming through horses, and goes on any ground. If you can get the 12/1, take it!! He is also owned by the sponsers.
Claret Cloak is another that caught the eye last time at Ascot, and cerrtainly has plenty of ability. Personally, I can't wait to see him jump a fence! Dark Lover is another on a big upward curve for Paul Nicholls, but may get outpaced before staying on.
I also really like the chances of Wingtips for Tony Martin. He has some high class form, and I think the way this is run will be right up his street. He has a beautiful racing weight around the 10 stone 6 lbs mark, and should get in as well. I think he has a big each way chance.
If the ground came up bottomless, then Bourne would have a good chance, also owned by the sponsers. He won at Kempton on his last start, and has shown good form in this level before. Punjabi was second in this five years ago off a 5lb higher mark, but showed some of his old sparkle in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day, and could run a big race once more.
ADVISED:
2pts E/W: Cause Of Causes + Wingtips
1pt E/W: Punjabi
(NRNB preferable)
If you have a fancy I haven't discussed or have some feedback, feel free to tweet me @willbowler2k12 and I'll reply as fast as I can, or fill in the comments box below.
Be Lucky,
Will
The stand-out horse in the market at this stage is My Tent Or Yours trained by Nicky Henderson. He has a virtually identical profile to the yard's Darlan, who ran in this as a novice last season and took a crunching fall two out. Darlan had a mark of 146, whereas My Tent Or Yours has a mark of 149. He was unsuited by heavy ground and a steady pace here on his penultimate start, before winning very nicely at Huntingdon. If you were to have doubts, his keenness in running and tendency to knock a hurdle would be slight worries.
Pearl Swan has to be feared for Paul Nicholls, who thinks he is well handicapped off 146. The big issue with him is whether he will be ready in time, but if he is, he has each way possibilities with his top novice form last season.
Cash And Go is a beautiful horse to look at, but has a few jumping issues to address before I can get involved with him at the price he is. Swing Bowler has to be feared as she is still unbeaten, but will she get in? If she does, then she would have a chance despite a big step up in grade for her.
For me though, the horse to beat is Cause Of Causes trained by Gordon Elliott. He won the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot at big odds two starts ago, before fighting off Midnight Oil at Navan in a small field which wouldn't have suited him very well. He loves coming through horses, and goes on any ground. If you can get the 12/1, take it!! He is also owned by the sponsers.
Claret Cloak is another that caught the eye last time at Ascot, and cerrtainly has plenty of ability. Personally, I can't wait to see him jump a fence! Dark Lover is another on a big upward curve for Paul Nicholls, but may get outpaced before staying on.
I also really like the chances of Wingtips for Tony Martin. He has some high class form, and I think the way this is run will be right up his street. He has a beautiful racing weight around the 10 stone 6 lbs mark, and should get in as well. I think he has a big each way chance.
If the ground came up bottomless, then Bourne would have a good chance, also owned by the sponsers. He won at Kempton on his last start, and has shown good form in this level before. Punjabi was second in this five years ago off a 5lb higher mark, but showed some of his old sparkle in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day, and could run a big race once more.
ADVISED:
2pts E/W: Cause Of Causes + Wingtips
1pt E/W: Punjabi
(NRNB preferable)
If you have a fancy I haven't discussed or have some feedback, feel free to tweet me @willbowler2k12 and I'll reply as fast as I can, or fill in the comments box below.
Be Lucky,
Will
Monday 14 January 2013
Weekend review + eyecatchers 11/01-13/01
In this short review of the weekend, I will try to address a few horses to follow, whether they be for the Cheltenham Festival or a handicap chase around Fontwell!
Friday showed us a couple of horses to definitely keep on side in the coming weeks and months. My Tent or Yours was very impressive at Huntingdon and will now go to the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. Glorious Twelfth also looks a name from the Henderson yard we will plenty more about as well after a smooth victory under AP McCoy.
Turning to Saturday, Warwick
hosted their biggest day of the year featuring the Betfred sponsored Classic
Chase, won by Rigadin De Beauchene under Robbie Dunne. He wore down Godsmejudge
close home to continue the fine form of trainer Venetia Williams, and may be a
future Grand National horse.
There was a very impressive
display from The New One in the Graded novice hurdle under Sam Twiston-Davies.
He is a very good horse and will now be aimed at the Neptune Investments Novice
Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival with a stop off to that venue on January 26th for his final prep race. Pure Science gave the Twiston-Davies team a
double by scooting clear in the bumper in really nice style in the colours of Raymond Mould. Rocky Creek, who
had won his previous start at Doncaster, scored again over fences in good
style, and he will go for either the RSA or National Hunt Chase at the Festival
in March all being well.
I can't review Warwick without mentioning Ely Brown, who I selected the day previous each way, going onto victory at 12/1. Hope some of you saw it and got on!
Kempton
hosted the Lanzarote Hurdle, named after the great Champion hurdler of 1974.
Oscara Dara was the victor under Barry Geraghty, despite a hair-raising moment
at the final flight. A switch back to hurdling worked the oracle for this horse
after a moderate chase debut on his previous start. The one to watch out of that race was Captain Sunshine, given a very patient ride, and staying on strongly when finding that last hurdle at Kempton to fall at again.
L’Unique was impressive in
the Juvenile hurdle, receiving quotes of around 20/1 for the Triumph Hurdle at
Cheltenham in March. Another nice winner was Cloudy Copper, who looks a novice hurdler
with a big future. It was also nice to see jockey Ian Popham back with a
Saturday winner after a broken pelvis earlier on this season, piloting Bally Legend to success.
Wetherby hosted a good card too, and again there were some really nice displays. Up And Go won the first race really well, and remains a horse to follow, together with the second Many Clouds, just look at his Aintree second in October, fantastic form.
One back in the field caught the eye too, Shotavodka. He was returning after a year off, and jumped super up with the pace and looked a big threat turning in before weakening quickly. Definitely one to follow.
Fourjacks made a winning transition to chasing, reeling in Poole Master after the last under an ice cool Brian Harding. Both horses will be winning very soon, but Fourjacks in particular on testing ground.
Kelso raced on Sunday despite the snow, and Duke Of Navan won really nicely in a novice hurdle, confirming the promise of his Cheltenham second ahead of the equally promising Big Water. Once again, both horses are really nice types and will be winning their fair share of races. Bernardelli finished in midfield behind his stablemate there, and now gains a handicap mark. He is a horse with ability that's for sure and should be able to win a few low grade handicap hurdles in the remainder of the season.
Speaking of Navan, they raced in Ireland as well, where Cause Of Causes won a conditions hurdle en route to the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, where he will have a huge chance.
Any feedback? Feel free to fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12
Be lucky,
Will
Friday 11 January 2013
Saturday 12th January Preview
Warwick hold by far there biggest jumps meeting of the year on Saturday, with the Classic Chase and a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle the main events. Kempton have the Lanzarote Hurdle as their feature, whilst Wetherby also host another Saturday fixture.
To start, we will have a look at the Classic Chase, where Pete The Feat bids to make it six out of six since a move to Team Longsdon in the summer. He has gone up 40lbs for his five victories, which would be a bit of a concern, but he does seem to stay well and you wouldn't bet against him scoring again. Conversely, his run has to end at some point, and this big rise in grade may just find him out.
But what's going to beat him? Restless Harry perhaps? A high class staying hurdler who struggled over fences initially, before a confidence boosting win at Newbury last time. I still don't think he is a natural over fences, and they will go off pretty quick here which may not help. Bradley is my most solid selection by far here though. He is a very strong stayer, and the form of his second at Cheltenham behind Monbeg Dude in November is very strong indeed. A test like this is much better than his run last time, where he got outpaced and made a fair few errors before staying on up the hill. He shouldn't have that to worry about this time, and should go very close indeed.
Value hunters could do much worse than look at top weight Auroras Encore, whose trainer Sue Smith has only had thee runners at the Midlands track in the past five seasons. He is now a pound lower than when he finished a head second to Merigo in the Scottish Grand National in April, proving he enjoys a real stamina test. He likes to sit handy and should outrun his big odds of around 20/1 as I write. Rigadin De Beauchene should run well too for in form connections.
The Warwick card kicks off at 12.40 with a tricky handicap hurdle, where I like the chances of both Tresor De Bontee and Harris Garden. Tresor De Bontee was an easy winner at Hereford when last seen, and created a big impression on me that day. He again faces two miles here, but must go well. Harris Garden is on handicap debut in this particular race, and is one I have always thought would be one to watch when he did go into handicaps. He certainly has ability and a mark of 102 is workable.
The 1.15 looks the ideal sort of contest for Eastlake, a horse who I am convinced is well handicapped, but only at two miles, nothing more. He is 6-16 in his career, all his wins over two miles and only two defeats over two miles in his career, equalling six out of eight. The danger is Kapga De Cerisy.
The 1.50 looks between Highland Lodge and Rocky Creek. The Pertemps Qualifier at 2.25 looks tricky, but I fancy Ely Brown, last years second to go one better this time. He has since moved yards to Charlie Longsdon, but still retains his ability and has won and been gallant in defeat twice this term. For me, he has a big each way chance in a competitive race.
The Grade 2 Leamington Novices Hurdle at 3.00 features The New One, a high class bumper horse who has been impressive hurdling to date, against horses you would say maybe a step behind him on the Cheltenham ladder. He has won here as well, which helps and should make it three out of three over timber. Dursey Sound and Hold Court look the main dangers.
Over to Kempton now, where there is perfect jumping ground. Tetlami makes his chase debut in the 12.55, a horse that I have always thought would make a chaser. Kie is the one to worry him, a horse who likes to dominate on flat right handed tracks.
The 1.30 novice hurdle looks really nice, with Bucks Bond, Cloudy Copper and Hold On Julio likely to feature highly in the market. I have been waiting for Atriptomilan to reappear after a run full of promise at Hereford four weeks ago. This better ground will definitely suit him and it'll be fascinating to see how he gets on.
The feature is the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at 2.40, and I like a couple each way for this fiercely competitive contest. Oscara Dara looks quite a well handicapped horse at present, especially after his win at the Punchestown Festival in April. The race that keeps springing to mind is that facile win at Sandown last season on his stable debut: he has always been exciting and a bit of a 'sexy' horse. He tried chasing last time, and ran close behind Cantlow, a very good horse in his own right. Barry Geraghty also rides which is an added bonus, back over hurdles off a mark of 140.
If Oscar Prairie can build on his pleasing return to form at Wincanton last week, then he could be overpriced. He is a course and distance winner, and has the services of good conditional Tom Garner taking a valuable seven pounds off his back.
The 3.50 looks a nice race too. Forgotten Voice is unbeaten so far in two hurdles starts. Switched Off is well known as a very, very smooth traveller who finds nothing off the bridle as he proved the last two times he ran . Cousin Khee and Laterly are both quite well handicapped as well, so the market will tell you more.
Wetherby also go for seven races, starting at 12.30 with a cracking novice hurdle. Many Clouds is the one to beat, with some high class form in the book behind Gevrey Chambertin before winning at Ascot. Up And Go and Shotavodka are by no means out of it and are very nice prospects for the future.
I think Gormanstown Cuckoo is a really interesting runner in the handicap hurdle at 2.50 for Michael Blake and James Reveley. The yard are 2 from 3 at the course and James Reveley has never ridden for this stable. He has his best form on a left handed flat course, such as Aintree or here and certainly stays the trip.
One final runner of interest is in the closing bumper, Weekend Lady for Venitia Williams. She has had her horses in fantastic form this season, and sends just the one runner up to Yorkshire for this fillies junior bumper under Harry Challoner. It won't take a great deal of winning, therefore you'd hope the trip would be worthwhile.
Any feedback? Either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Good Luck,
Will
To start, we will have a look at the Classic Chase, where Pete The Feat bids to make it six out of six since a move to Team Longsdon in the summer. He has gone up 40lbs for his five victories, which would be a bit of a concern, but he does seem to stay well and you wouldn't bet against him scoring again. Conversely, his run has to end at some point, and this big rise in grade may just find him out.
But what's going to beat him? Restless Harry perhaps? A high class staying hurdler who struggled over fences initially, before a confidence boosting win at Newbury last time. I still don't think he is a natural over fences, and they will go off pretty quick here which may not help. Bradley is my most solid selection by far here though. He is a very strong stayer, and the form of his second at Cheltenham behind Monbeg Dude in November is very strong indeed. A test like this is much better than his run last time, where he got outpaced and made a fair few errors before staying on up the hill. He shouldn't have that to worry about this time, and should go very close indeed.
Value hunters could do much worse than look at top weight Auroras Encore, whose trainer Sue Smith has only had thee runners at the Midlands track in the past five seasons. He is now a pound lower than when he finished a head second to Merigo in the Scottish Grand National in April, proving he enjoys a real stamina test. He likes to sit handy and should outrun his big odds of around 20/1 as I write. Rigadin De Beauchene should run well too for in form connections.
The Warwick card kicks off at 12.40 with a tricky handicap hurdle, where I like the chances of both Tresor De Bontee and Harris Garden. Tresor De Bontee was an easy winner at Hereford when last seen, and created a big impression on me that day. He again faces two miles here, but must go well. Harris Garden is on handicap debut in this particular race, and is one I have always thought would be one to watch when he did go into handicaps. He certainly has ability and a mark of 102 is workable.
The 1.15 looks the ideal sort of contest for Eastlake, a horse who I am convinced is well handicapped, but only at two miles, nothing more. He is 6-16 in his career, all his wins over two miles and only two defeats over two miles in his career, equalling six out of eight. The danger is Kapga De Cerisy.
The 1.50 looks between Highland Lodge and Rocky Creek. The Pertemps Qualifier at 2.25 looks tricky, but I fancy Ely Brown, last years second to go one better this time. He has since moved yards to Charlie Longsdon, but still retains his ability and has won and been gallant in defeat twice this term. For me, he has a big each way chance in a competitive race.
The Grade 2 Leamington Novices Hurdle at 3.00 features The New One, a high class bumper horse who has been impressive hurdling to date, against horses you would say maybe a step behind him on the Cheltenham ladder. He has won here as well, which helps and should make it three out of three over timber. Dursey Sound and Hold Court look the main dangers.
Over to Kempton now, where there is perfect jumping ground. Tetlami makes his chase debut in the 12.55, a horse that I have always thought would make a chaser. Kie is the one to worry him, a horse who likes to dominate on flat right handed tracks.
The 1.30 novice hurdle looks really nice, with Bucks Bond, Cloudy Copper and Hold On Julio likely to feature highly in the market. I have been waiting for Atriptomilan to reappear after a run full of promise at Hereford four weeks ago. This better ground will definitely suit him and it'll be fascinating to see how he gets on.
The feature is the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at 2.40, and I like a couple each way for this fiercely competitive contest. Oscara Dara looks quite a well handicapped horse at present, especially after his win at the Punchestown Festival in April. The race that keeps springing to mind is that facile win at Sandown last season on his stable debut: he has always been exciting and a bit of a 'sexy' horse. He tried chasing last time, and ran close behind Cantlow, a very good horse in his own right. Barry Geraghty also rides which is an added bonus, back over hurdles off a mark of 140.
If Oscar Prairie can build on his pleasing return to form at Wincanton last week, then he could be overpriced. He is a course and distance winner, and has the services of good conditional Tom Garner taking a valuable seven pounds off his back.
The 3.50 looks a nice race too. Forgotten Voice is unbeaten so far in two hurdles starts. Switched Off is well known as a very, very smooth traveller who finds nothing off the bridle as he proved the last two times he ran . Cousin Khee and Laterly are both quite well handicapped as well, so the market will tell you more.
Wetherby also go for seven races, starting at 12.30 with a cracking novice hurdle. Many Clouds is the one to beat, with some high class form in the book behind Gevrey Chambertin before winning at Ascot. Up And Go and Shotavodka are by no means out of it and are very nice prospects for the future.
I think Gormanstown Cuckoo is a really interesting runner in the handicap hurdle at 2.50 for Michael Blake and James Reveley. The yard are 2 from 3 at the course and James Reveley has never ridden for this stable. He has his best form on a left handed flat course, such as Aintree or here and certainly stays the trip.
One final runner of interest is in the closing bumper, Weekend Lady for Venitia Williams. She has had her horses in fantastic form this season, and sends just the one runner up to Yorkshire for this fillies junior bumper under Harry Challoner. It won't take a great deal of winning, therefore you'd hope the trip would be worthwhile.
Any feedback? Either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Good Luck,
Will
Monday 7 January 2013
Dark Horses Half Term Report
Back on 12th October 2012 I made up a list of 10 dark horses to follow throughout the jumps season, and they have done very well. They have recorded six victories between them, including a Grade 1. The tracks they have won at are Chepstow, Cheltenham, Fakenham, Sandown, Newbury and Wincanton. I am going to do a brief summary on each horse, and where I think we may be seeing them to best effect in the remainder of the season.
1) Go All The Way (J Dreaper) - FORM POST 12th Oct: F
He has only ran once since 12th October, and that was a fall at Cheltenham when beginning to fade in a novice chase. He started favourite that day, but ran a bit flat. Quite rightly he has been put away for a spring/summer campaign, where a race like the Galway Plate would be an ideal target for him. He still has a big future over fences that's for sure.
2) According To Trev (N Twiston-Davies) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 135
This big, long-striding son of Accordion won at Cheltenham back in October in good style, before returning to the same course again twice since, both times disliking the deep ground behind Coneygree. I would imagine he will go back to Cheltenham for the Festival, historically run on better ground in the Albert Bartlett. A very likeable horse who I can't wait to see jump a fence.
3) Regal Encore (A Honeyball) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 1
I think this is a special horse we will be hearing much more about in the coming weeks and months. He has now scooted clear twice in bumpers, the second giving weight away at Chepstow, and he looks to have a serious engine. He is being given a break, to return for the big Spring bumpers at Cheltenham (18/1 with SkyBet), Newbury and Aintree. I can't wait to see him again.
4) Taquin Du Seuil (JJ O'Neill) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 211
Another hugely exciting horse, and now a Grade 1 winner after scoring in the Challow Hurdle. I agree with his trainer that his jumping will improve on better ground. He is second favourite for the Neptune Novice Hurdle at the Festival, and I think he has a big chance if he gets there in one piece.
5) Tilly Ann (Lydia Pearce) - No Run Since
Tilly Ann is yet to appear this season which is a shame as I think she is well handicappped. She seems flexible in terms of trip and ground, but two miles on good ground seem what the yard think will suit her best.
6) Makari (N Henderson) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 12
Makari won for us at Fakenham, before going down narrowly to Robbie at Southwell, a horse who has won again since so the form is good. Robbie beat him one and a half lengths, but is now rated 19lbs above him, making Makari look well handicapped. He is entered at Ludlow on the 9th of January, and could go well if he got in. He could develop into an Imperial Cup/County Hurdle horse, but that may be a bit too bold at this precise moment.
7) Gleann Na Ndochais (A Whillans) - FORM POST 12th Oct: U62U
Gleann Na Ndochais is becoming a tad frustrating, unseating when running a big race on chase debut, before going back hurdling when a shade disappointing. At Ayr in the New Year he ran in a 4 runner handicap chase, and made his own running as he was dropped to two miles. He looked the winner for a long way, before getting tired and overhauled by Sergeant Pink. Then on the 13th, unseated again early at Kelso. He is much better than that I'm sure, and with a bigger field and longer trip, I feel he will surely be able to exploit his mark of 104.
8) Headly's Bridge (S Earle) - FORM POST 12th Oct: P52
Headly's Bridge bumped into a very well handicapped rival last time at Leicester, and is going to enjoy better ground this Spring. His three best runs in this country are on good to soft ground, and he is only 7 so should have plenty of scope to improve on his mark of 113. Right handed track preferable but not essential.
9) The Druids Nephew (A Turnell) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 231
The Druids Nephew was chinned a nose at Ascot on chase debut, before not quite staying the trip at Kempton. He bounced back in a three runner event at Wincanton a few days ago with a ten length success under James Banks. He jumps well and I think two miles five furlongs is his perfect trip, so the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival would be my target, he does jump well enough for Cheltenham.
10) Water Wagtail (Emma Lavelle) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 52
I think Water Wagtail has plenty of ability, and a change of tactics may bring about improvement. He doesn't have many gears, so front running would combat that, and also improve his jumping which was scratchy at Plumpton. He ran in terrible conditions at Ffos Las over two miles six furlongs, and again stayed on at the same pace to be second. He needs three miles minimum now to act his best. Certainly still one to watch, but is still a project.
I hope you have enjoyed the round-up, and if your interested, to a £1 level stake, you would see a very small loss of 88p!!
Any feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in box below.
Be lucky,
Will
1) Go All The Way (J Dreaper) - FORM POST 12th Oct: F
He has only ran once since 12th October, and that was a fall at Cheltenham when beginning to fade in a novice chase. He started favourite that day, but ran a bit flat. Quite rightly he has been put away for a spring/summer campaign, where a race like the Galway Plate would be an ideal target for him. He still has a big future over fences that's for sure.
2) According To Trev (N Twiston-Davies) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 135
 | |||
| According To Trev scoring at Cheltenham |
3) Regal Encore (A Honeyball) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 1
 |
| Regal Encore at Chepstow |
4) Taquin Du Seuil (JJ O'Neill) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 211
 |
| A mud splattered Grade 1 winner at Newbury! |
5) Tilly Ann (Lydia Pearce) - No Run Since
Tilly Ann is yet to appear this season which is a shame as I think she is well handicappped. She seems flexible in terms of trip and ground, but two miles on good ground seem what the yard think will suit her best.
6) Makari (N Henderson) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 12
 |
| Makari (No. 5) winning at Fakenham |
7) Gleann Na Ndochais (A Whillans) - FORM POST 12th Oct: U62U
Gleann Na Ndochais is becoming a tad frustrating, unseating when running a big race on chase debut, before going back hurdling when a shade disappointing. At Ayr in the New Year he ran in a 4 runner handicap chase, and made his own running as he was dropped to two miles. He looked the winner for a long way, before getting tired and overhauled by Sergeant Pink. Then on the 13th, unseated again early at Kelso. He is much better than that I'm sure, and with a bigger field and longer trip, I feel he will surely be able to exploit his mark of 104.
8) Headly's Bridge (S Earle) - FORM POST 12th Oct: P52
 |
| Headly's Bridge at his home |
Headly's Bridge bumped into a very well handicapped rival last time at Leicester, and is going to enjoy better ground this Spring. His three best runs in this country are on good to soft ground, and he is only 7 so should have plenty of scope to improve on his mark of 113. Right handed track preferable but not essential.
9) The Druids Nephew (A Turnell) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 231
 |
| Druids at Kempton under Tom Scudamore |
The Druids Nephew was chinned a nose at Ascot on chase debut, before not quite staying the trip at Kempton. He bounced back in a three runner event at Wincanton a few days ago with a ten length success under James Banks. He jumps well and I think two miles five furlongs is his perfect trip, so the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival would be my target, he does jump well enough for Cheltenham.
10) Water Wagtail (Emma Lavelle) - FORM POST 12th Oct: 52
I think Water Wagtail has plenty of ability, and a change of tactics may bring about improvement. He doesn't have many gears, so front running would combat that, and also improve his jumping which was scratchy at Plumpton. He ran in terrible conditions at Ffos Las over two miles six furlongs, and again stayed on at the same pace to be second. He needs three miles minimum now to act his best. Certainly still one to watch, but is still a project.
I hope you have enjoyed the round-up, and if your interested, to a £1 level stake, you would see a very small loss of 88p!!
Any feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in box below.
Be lucky,
Will
Sunday 6 January 2013
Weekend Review + Eyecatchers 04/01-06/01
The opening weekend of 2013 gave us a thrilling and compelling few days of jumps racing, headed by the Welsh National at Chepstow.
As usual, we start on Friday where the jumps action came from Lingfield and Musselburgh. It was a day of little quality, but there were a few horses to keep an eye on. Only one of those came at Lingfield, namely Ballygarvey, who was taking in his first handicap chase on his second start for Phillip Hobbs, and recorded a bloodless success. This horse rarely runs on heavy going, but is very dangerous when he does, and looks well handicapped.
At Musselburgh, three to note. First up, a faller from the beginners chase Rudemeister, a huge horse who was in the process of running a big race, and a step up to three miles on a galloping track is his ideal. Two from the bumper as well, the winner Alphabetical Order recorded an impressive time at Lingfield on his winning debut, before scoring nicely here under a penalty. He has a big future. The third Rev Up Ruby is another to note, having raced greenly, stayed on well up the home straight and looks sure to win races.
Chepstow, Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton were the venues for a busy Saturday.
O'Faolains Boy and Fourovakind both made taking hurdle debuts in the Chepstow opener, finishing first and third respectably. The former jumped well and stretched away after two out, whereas Fourovakind really picked up for pressure and will certainly be shedding the maiden tag soon. The Finale Juvenile Hurdle was a Grade 1 contest, and Swnymor was desperately unlucky. Richard Johnson asked for a big jump at the last, but he dived at it and fell. That left Ruacana clear to score for Denis O'Regan and a first Grade 1 for John Ferguson. Caid Du Berlais was an eye-catching second, but looked a tricky ride.
The Welsh National saw one of the coolest and best timed big race rides in a long while, when the magician Paul Carberry lifted Monbeg Dude to victory for Michael Scudamore. It was a plan judged to the T by a fantastic jockey, narrowly scoring from favourite Teaforthree under Tony McCoy. A fitting end to another great renewal. Victor Dartnall recently re-opened his yard after an outbreak of equine herpes, and Giles Cross got very tired in the Welsh National and pulled up. That disappointment was turned to elation as the yard saddled the winner of the bumper with Seebright. Great to see them having a winner.
The only point of note from Newcastle was a great ride by young Craig Nichol aboard the quirky Stormion. He looked beaten, but in a way that only Stormion can,he plugged on and won narrowly for the Lucinda Russell yard.
Sandown hosted the Tolworth Hurdle, a two mile novice hurdle won this year by Melodic Rendezvous, a first Grade 1 success for jockey Nick Scholfield and trainer Jeremy Scott. He has the ingredients to go right to the top, he has gears, goes in any ground and likes a battle. Pendra ran really well, as did Court Minstrel, a horse who prefers good ground to be seen at his best.
There were three impressive winners at the Esher venue, William's Wishes, Lord Of House and Katenko. William's Wishes was a smooth winner despite making a terrible hash of two from home. Lord Of House is very lightly raced, and is a horse I really like. The form of his Aintree third in October is high class, and made a mockery of his handicap mark under a great ride by Gavin Sheehan, a jockey going places. And Katenko, a French import for Venitia Williams winning easily for Aidan Coleman, potentially en route to the Grand National in April.
Finally, Wincanton hosted a six race card. The Druids Nephew won his first chase in good style, a horse I flagged up in the dark horses blog in October, and I have a race in mind for him at Cheltenham on Trials Day over two miles five furlongs. Gevrey Chambertin again impressed with a very smooth success on his handicap debut.
Sunday only had one Graded race, and that was a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Naas in Ireland. It went to Rule The World and Davy Russell, easily too. He has been described as a 'big, raw bugger' by his trainer and will make a better chaser, therefore Cheltenham may be a no-go this year.
The Sussex National was the big race at Plumpton, won by Well Refreshed for Josh and Gary Moore. It was a very well judged ride on a horse that it is improving all the time, and a race like the Midlands National may be on the agenda now. It was nice to see David Arbuthnot with a winner too; Rocky Elsom in the final handicap hurdle took him off the cold list.
I hope you have enjoyed the review, and if you have any comments, either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12
Be Lucky,
Will
As usual, we start on Friday where the jumps action came from Lingfield and Musselburgh. It was a day of little quality, but there were a few horses to keep an eye on. Only one of those came at Lingfield, namely Ballygarvey, who was taking in his first handicap chase on his second start for Phillip Hobbs, and recorded a bloodless success. This horse rarely runs on heavy going, but is very dangerous when he does, and looks well handicapped.
At Musselburgh, three to note. First up, a faller from the beginners chase Rudemeister, a huge horse who was in the process of running a big race, and a step up to three miles on a galloping track is his ideal. Two from the bumper as well, the winner Alphabetical Order recorded an impressive time at Lingfield on his winning debut, before scoring nicely here under a penalty. He has a big future. The third Rev Up Ruby is another to note, having raced greenly, stayed on well up the home straight and looks sure to win races.
Chepstow, Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton were the venues for a busy Saturday.
O'Faolains Boy and Fourovakind both made taking hurdle debuts in the Chepstow opener, finishing first and third respectably. The former jumped well and stretched away after two out, whereas Fourovakind really picked up for pressure and will certainly be shedding the maiden tag soon. The Finale Juvenile Hurdle was a Grade 1 contest, and Swnymor was desperately unlucky. Richard Johnson asked for a big jump at the last, but he dived at it and fell. That left Ruacana clear to score for Denis O'Regan and a first Grade 1 for John Ferguson. Caid Du Berlais was an eye-catching second, but looked a tricky ride.
The Welsh National saw one of the coolest and best timed big race rides in a long while, when the magician Paul Carberry lifted Monbeg Dude to victory for Michael Scudamore. It was a plan judged to the T by a fantastic jockey, narrowly scoring from favourite Teaforthree under Tony McCoy. A fitting end to another great renewal. Victor Dartnall recently re-opened his yard after an outbreak of equine herpes, and Giles Cross got very tired in the Welsh National and pulled up. That disappointment was turned to elation as the yard saddled the winner of the bumper with Seebright. Great to see them having a winner.
The only point of note from Newcastle was a great ride by young Craig Nichol aboard the quirky Stormion. He looked beaten, but in a way that only Stormion can,he plugged on and won narrowly for the Lucinda Russell yard.
Sandown hosted the Tolworth Hurdle, a two mile novice hurdle won this year by Melodic Rendezvous, a first Grade 1 success for jockey Nick Scholfield and trainer Jeremy Scott. He has the ingredients to go right to the top, he has gears, goes in any ground and likes a battle. Pendra ran really well, as did Court Minstrel, a horse who prefers good ground to be seen at his best.
There were three impressive winners at the Esher venue, William's Wishes, Lord Of House and Katenko. William's Wishes was a smooth winner despite making a terrible hash of two from home. Lord Of House is very lightly raced, and is a horse I really like. The form of his Aintree third in October is high class, and made a mockery of his handicap mark under a great ride by Gavin Sheehan, a jockey going places. And Katenko, a French import for Venitia Williams winning easily for Aidan Coleman, potentially en route to the Grand National in April.
Finally, Wincanton hosted a six race card. The Druids Nephew won his first chase in good style, a horse I flagged up in the dark horses blog in October, and I have a race in mind for him at Cheltenham on Trials Day over two miles five furlongs. Gevrey Chambertin again impressed with a very smooth success on his handicap debut.
Sunday only had one Graded race, and that was a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Naas in Ireland. It went to Rule The World and Davy Russell, easily too. He has been described as a 'big, raw bugger' by his trainer and will make a better chaser, therefore Cheltenham may be a no-go this year.
The Sussex National was the big race at Plumpton, won by Well Refreshed for Josh and Gary Moore. It was a very well judged ride on a horse that it is improving all the time, and a race like the Midlands National may be on the agenda now. It was nice to see David Arbuthnot with a winner too; Rocky Elsom in the final handicap hurdle took him off the cold list.
I hope you have enjoyed the review, and if you have any comments, either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12
Be Lucky,
Will
Friday 4 January 2013
Welsh National Preview
The rearranged Welsh National at Chepstow is the biggest Welsh race in the calendar, and is run over 3 miles and 5 furlongs, which is two complete circuits of the undulating left handed course.
The favourite is the Welsh trained Teaforthree, who is ably assisted by Tony McCoy, who guided Synchronised to victory in this race in 2010. He won the four miler at the Cheltenham festival in March, and has returned this season with two reasonable runs, first at Cheltenham under top weight, then in the Hennessy at Newbury, where he finished a respectable sixth, and not knocked about. He has a fair weight, and has course form figures of: 2311. He is very much the one to beat.
As for dangers high in the market, Michel Le Bon is the mount of Ruby Walsh. The biggest issue is his jumping, and he hasn't won a chase for just over three years. He is fragile and I'm opposing him. Universal Soldier has always shaped as though this sort of test would suit, and his comeback run at Haydock should he had trained on and continued his progression, and with Wayne Hutchinson aboard, must go well.
I don't particularly like Viking Blond, who can get worked up at the start, like he did last year and I can't have him. Sona Sasta, ridden by Mikey Ennis, who is bidding to become the first amateur to win the race has a chance. He is best fresh though and previous runs at this sort of trip suggest he may well be a non stayer.
Giles Cross is a high class horse, but his trainer hasn't had a winner since his yard reopened after a bout of equine herpes, and that's a big concern leading into this, added to the fact he hasn't had a start this season. Monbeg Dude could go well after his win at Cheltenham under Jamie Moore, today replaced by the master of the hold-up ride Paul Carberry, and if he can sustain his rhythm like he did at Cheltenham, there's no reason why he shouldn't go well.
Soll for me though is the best value each way play in this, a horse who jumps well and loves testing ground. He stays well and ran very well in the Hennessy considering his trainer Jo Hughes said 'he wasn't properly ready' for that particular race. 12/1 looks a knocking each way play. The other one is Incentivise, a dual course winner who I have always thought could run well in a race such as this. He is 8lbs out the handicap, which is a concern, but with Killian Moore in the saddle could go well.
I hope you have enjoyed this preview, and any feedback either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.
Be lucky,
Will
The favourite is the Welsh trained Teaforthree, who is ably assisted by Tony McCoy, who guided Synchronised to victory in this race in 2010. He won the four miler at the Cheltenham festival in March, and has returned this season with two reasonable runs, first at Cheltenham under top weight, then in the Hennessy at Newbury, where he finished a respectable sixth, and not knocked about. He has a fair weight, and has course form figures of: 2311. He is very much the one to beat.
As for dangers high in the market, Michel Le Bon is the mount of Ruby Walsh. The biggest issue is his jumping, and he hasn't won a chase for just over three years. He is fragile and I'm opposing him. Universal Soldier has always shaped as though this sort of test would suit, and his comeback run at Haydock should he had trained on and continued his progression, and with Wayne Hutchinson aboard, must go well.
I don't particularly like Viking Blond, who can get worked up at the start, like he did last year and I can't have him. Sona Sasta, ridden by Mikey Ennis, who is bidding to become the first amateur to win the race has a chance. He is best fresh though and previous runs at this sort of trip suggest he may well be a non stayer.
Giles Cross is a high class horse, but his trainer hasn't had a winner since his yard reopened after a bout of equine herpes, and that's a big concern leading into this, added to the fact he hasn't had a start this season. Monbeg Dude could go well after his win at Cheltenham under Jamie Moore, today replaced by the master of the hold-up ride Paul Carberry, and if he can sustain his rhythm like he did at Cheltenham, there's no reason why he shouldn't go well.
Soll for me though is the best value each way play in this, a horse who jumps well and loves testing ground. He stays well and ran very well in the Hennessy considering his trainer Jo Hughes said 'he wasn't properly ready' for that particular race. 12/1 looks a knocking each way play. The other one is Incentivise, a dual course winner who I have always thought could run well in a race such as this. He is 8lbs out the handicap, which is a concern, but with Killian Moore in the saddle could go well.
I hope you have enjoyed this preview, and any feedback either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.
Be lucky,
Will
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