The Foxhunters - But not as we know it

It Came To Pass causing a 66/1 shock last year, beating Billaway (yellow).

 

 

More brilliant racing on Day 3 where we had a couple of good each way collects with Tornado Flyer, Come On Teddy and Magic Blue, who all ran well without winning. For this post, I focus on what would usually be the "Amateur's Gold Cup", now known as the St. James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase. For those who don't know, I commentate on Point to Points so hopefully can offer a bit of extra assistance!

I am going to do a runner by runner guide with a summary at the end, together with a selection at Fakenham.

As for the Gold Cup, I don't really have a view to be honest. If you forced me to have my last fiver, I'd chance Santini each way but it would be tentative, especially as it is Santini we are talking about, who isn't the most aesthetically pleasing to watch.

Here we go:

1) Billaway - Billaway is the favourite for the race once again after finishing a well beaten second in the race twelve months ago under Patrick Mullins. He has ran three times this season, winning his last two, including a win over Staker Wallace last time at Naas, and a second place finish behind Stand Up And Fight on his reappearance. He has a leading chance once again but at the prices, I'll pass.

2) Bob And Co - Bob And Co reappeared at Haydock last month in devastating style, hosing up under Sean Bowen. His form in France is very good but last season, he was a bit disappointing for me and needs a career best here. He is trained however by Paul Nicholls, so if anyone can find improvement, he's your man. He's short enough for me in the market.

3) Chameron - I called Chameron to win one of the best point to point races in the calendar last season, the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill. Ridden by Angus Cheleda, he travelled and jumped well before streaking clear of a strong field in the home straight. He's a gorgeous looking individual and was the best horse I called last season. He reappeared at Leicester on bottomless ground, something he didn't like, and had a good dual with Cousin Pascal, a subsequent Catterick winner, up the home straight before cosily holding him and pulling miles clear of the third. The ground has come right for him and I think he'll run a huge race. Harry Cobden, who also co-owns the horse rides.

4) Hazel Hill - Winner of the race in 2019 under Alex Edwards, who recently turned pro so he could ride him again. This stunning individual is into his teenage years now but retains plenty of zest, as shown in his Ludlow win in January. Freshened up since, he could run into the frame again, but younger legs may find him out.

5) It Came To Pass - Last year's winner who caused a big shock at 66/1. This season's form could be stronger but he clearly comes alive here and would be a lovely story, ridden by Richie McLernon who started his racing life with the yard before moving to the UK.

6) Latenightpass - Latenightpass caused a bit of a shock at Warwick last time out. He likes to sit very handy and with a strong pace will get taken on, but was a course and distance winner on hunter chase night here in May 2019. Usually ridden by Gina Andrews for her husband Tom Ellis, sister Bridget is once again in the saddle and it will be a great family story should he win. He needs a career best, but that's not totally out of the question.

7) Law Of Gold - A horse I have called to win on a few occasions pointing, he has a high cruising speed which was blunted in the ground here twelve months ago when finishing seventh. He returned at Doncaster behind Silsol where his jumping could have been better, and he is one who could outrun his odds. Each way extra places could be the way to go.

8) Mighty Stowaway - Despite being trained by leading connections, his form doesn't stack up against these and I'm more than happy to oppose.

9) Monbeg Gold - Surprisingly ran well at Doncaster last time, just outbattled by Silsol and finishing ahead of Law Of Gold. He might get done for pace here and doesn't have the greatest completion record either.

10) Mr Mantilla - I have to confess I don't know much about him but he has been good in his Irish PTP's. He has moved over to David Jeffreys and really is the unknown quantity for shrewd connections. He is only seven and is worth watching for any market moves

11) Porlock Bay - Trained by the winning most PTP jockey of all-time in the UK Will Biddick, Porlock Bay ran a cracking race on his first run for new connections since moving over from France at Wincanton. The form of the race hasn't worked out but he is a strong traveller and a hold-up horse which may come in handy if the likely strong pace materialises. He has a sound each way chance.

12) Ravished - Has little chance and surely making up the numbers here

13) Red Indian - Red Indian has been a star for current trainer Kelly Morgan and has qualified for a dabble here with a couple of runaway wins in ladies open races at Bishops Court and Alnwick before Christmas. You don't have to look a million miles back to his fourth in the Kauto Star Novice Chase at Kempton and when he was sent off 16/1 to beat A Plus Tard at the 2019 Festival. He has plenty of big field experience too with a sixth place Coral Cup finish and having won two races in fifteen runner fields. On this better ground, I think he has a big chance and given the yard masterminded Top Wood to two placed efforts in this race and a win at Aintree, he will certainly be ready.

14) Salvatore - A horse I've called to win on a few occasions and is still highly progressive if his win at Musselburgh last time out is anything to go by, then he is not stopping yet. The massive positive for him is the ground but he definitely needs a career best, but as mentioned with Porlock Bay, that is not out of the question by any means.

15) Sonneofpresenting - Nice to see a real enthusiast in Sarah 'Ripper' Rippon having a runner here, but it would be a miracle to see him win in all truth.

16) Staker Wallace - The first choice of the JP and Bolger runners, and will be trying to better his fourth place finish in the race last year. Jamie Codd gave the horse a patient ride last year and seemingly didn't get up the hill but has returned this year better than ever and must run a race under Mark Walsh

17) Stand Up And Fight - Stablemate to Staker Wallace and sixth in the race two years ago. He beat Billaway in November at Fairyhouse but a month on was well beaten by that rival. He was narrowly beaten three weeks ago at Thurles, but I think he finds himself slightly in the second tier of the Irish contingent.

18) Wishing And Hoping - Completes a triumvirate of runners from the Rowley stable but has the least chance of the three in my opinion. He is a front runner which could also be a negative if the likely competition for the lead does materialise. However I'm sure Bryony Frost will have a great spin around from this safe jumping sort.

 

All in all it promises to be a cracking renewal, with Chameron and Red Indian being my two against the field. 

Over at Fakenham, I think the hunter chase at 4.40pm looks made for Ennistown, who has a small field, better ground, the champion jockey and much calmer waters in his favour. I thought he'd be favourite for this and I think he'll win.

Have a great Gold Cup day!

Be lucky!

 

Runners aplenty ahead of a strong Stayers Hurdle

If The Cap Fits (far side) landing the Stayers Hurdle at Aintree in 2019 but has been disappointing over fences since.

 

At the halfway point of the Festival we have already seen some very impressive performances from both horse and rider, in particular Rachel Blackmore aboard the likes of Honeysuckle. She still has fair mounts to come, including Allaho and A Plus Tard. Day three however poses some very tricky puzzles, but I have a few ante-post tickets to discuss below and hopefully land one or two like Tuesday!

1.55 - Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final:

A fiendishly difficult puzzle most years and this renewal is no exception, with a few of last years runners trying again including the legend Unowhatimeanharry and Kansas City Chief, who ran well above his station that day. The one I like here though is Come On Teddy for Tom George and Johnny Burke, who hasn't been seen since his third place finish at Warwick in a qualifier for this behind Imperial Alcazar, who he faces again here. He was hampered on the bend that day as well, allowing Paddy Brennan aboard the winner to get away and by the time he was out in the clear, the bird had flown. Two major positives are the better ground, something he's not tried very often but I feel will suit, and also his previous Cheltenham win here earlier this season in impressive fashion, and importantly on the New course. He has a big chance.

2.30 - Ryanair Chase:

What a race this is. Loads of Festival form, nice post-scripts such as Amy Murphy and Dashel Drasher and a horse who deserves a Cheltenham win in Melon. I thought I'd make a case for a forgotten horse in Real Steel for Paul Nicholls. Rewind twelve months and he travelled like a dream in the Gold Cup, looking for a second as though he may even shake up Al Boum Photo, before as expected beforehand, fading up the run-in. He was trained by Willie Mullins back then and having moved to Ditcheat, he needed his first run at Ascot, described by his trainer as a "fact-finding mission". Onto the King George where he travelled well for a long time before bleeding and ultimately pulling up. Paul Nicholls says he has changed his routine and has been doing some great bits of work so that'll do for me at around 20/1. Tornado Flyer was in my horses to follow list at the start of the season and he could run above himself too.

3.05 - Stayers Hurdle:

I think it's a case of whether or not you fancy Paisley Park to be on a good day, like he was here two years ago. He seems fine this season too after his heart scare in this race last year and it would be a great sight to see him regain his crown. Last year's winner Lisnagar Oscar ran a much better race at Haydock last time and he will go well here but I like the chances of If The Cap Fits at the prices. Chasing has been a bit of a write-off for him as he now reverts back to hurdles, in a discipline that he is a Grade 1 winner. Interestingly he wears a tongue strap for the first time together with the reapplied cheekpieces, and with the potential of a burn-up with Sam Spinner, Flooring Porter and Lil Rockerfeller, he could just outstay them as he will keep galloping all the way. Sire Du Berlais would be my idea of the safest conveyance with his great course record.

I want to also give a small mention for Mighty Blue in the 4.15, in a race which I think will suit her down to the ground. She is still a maiden, but a very smart one and a big run at each way odds is by no means out of the question.

More great sport to look forward to.

Be lucky!

It's D-Day for Chacun in the Queen Mother

 

A big day for Chacun Pour Soi, with his chance for domination across both sides of the Irish Sea

After a very good Tuesday for us, with the evergreen Vintage Clouds landing us a nice win at big odds, together with the big run of Indefatigable in the Mares and Coltor in the Boodles both running well and taking advantage of the extra places in each way markets. For Pleasure also ran an absolute blinder in the Supreme despite not hitting the low in-running price I was trying to match. One down and three to go as we move onto day two with four more selections.

3.05 - Queen Mother Champion Chase:

As the caption above indicates, tomorrow is the biggest day in the career of Chacun Pour Soi to date. Having defeated all before him in Ireland in recent times, and doing so easily, he arrives here to take on a new set of opponents and have his first experience of Cheltenham in the process. Do I think he is the right favourite? Yes but at the price, I wouldn't go near him, and there is plenty to go at as far as an each way alternative is concerned. Put The Kettle On has the bonus of the 7lb mares allowance, which of course came in very handy for Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle for the same connections, and would hold claims, as would Nube Negra and last year's winner Politologue. But with plenty of pace on, I thought Sceau Royal could run another good race. The ground in the race last year was too sticky, that coming a year on from his exceptional effort in 2019's renewal when leading at the last before finishing third to Altior. He looked as good as ever when disposing of Champ in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury last month and at around 14/1, he looks overpriced.

3.40 - Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country):

Easysland is going to go off a short price favourite for jockey Felix De Giles, formerly based over here, and trainer David Cottin. Easysland bolted up in this race last year, and this year is using it as a stepping stone to the Grand National at Aintree, where he has top weight. The one big concern would be the form of the Cottin stable, who are usually very consistent and in the winners on a regular basis but have been going through a real cold spell, with just five winners this calendar year. Tiger Roll, the dual Grand National winner is coming here as opposed to Aintree this time around under instruction from his owners, but he's been in poor form and plenty must be taken on trust. Balko Des Flos would have a massive chance if he a) stayed the trip and more importantly b) took to the fences. But I'm going to throw a dart at Defi Des Carres here each way at big odds. He is trained by Charlie Mann having formally been in France, but he turned up here on his British debut and finished a very good second to Some Neck, getting reeled in close home. His second run is excusable and he has had a nice break since. He jumps very well and although not very well in at the weights, he can go well with extra places. 

4.15 - Grand Annual Handicap Chase:

As ever a very competitve contest. With nineteen runners, there will be lots of extra places around. Zanza has been well talked up by connections, and you can see why, together with Sky Pirate and Chosen Mate. The two I want to play are Us And Them and Glen Forsa. The latter has had his issues but has been given a wind operation and I think the drop down to two miles could be the answer. Pause the tape at the halfway point in both his last two races over 2m4f and he is travelling as well as anything before bombing out. Back down to 2m, I thought he could go well. Us And Them was placed in the race last year off one pound higher and has been freshened up in preparation for this.

4.50 - Champion Bumper:

Kilcruit won on the bridle at Leopardstown but it just seems too good to be true, and I'm not willing to take less than 2/1 to find out. I backed Three Stripe Line at 33/1 after his debut rout at Navan, and he has every chance. If you have a lot of places (5+), then I wouldn't put you off Jack's A Legend, who despite being the only maiden in the field, has good course form, will appreciate slightly better ground and a strong pace to aim at here. He has had a wind operation as well and if he was trained by a more fashionable trainer, he'd be much shorter than he is.

Hopefully more of the same on Wednesday.

Be lucky!

The Master of Rosewell launches a Boodles raid

 

Coltor (stripes) has a big chance in the Boodles

Twelve months ago, crowds were congregating on their annual Mecca style pilgrimage to Cheltenham for four days of top notch equine action. Unfortunately, due to bloody Covid-19, no crowds, not even owners, will be allowed to attend this year. The atmosphere will be very strange, but the racing remains top class and I will explore four angles on each day to hopefully make a few quid and build up some funds to put away to hopefully put towards tickets for next year's meeting!!

1.20 - Supreme Novice Hurdle

A roaring start quite literally to the meeting, as the leading Irish two mile novice hurdlers take on the home team's challenge. Appreciate It looks the most likely winner with very few cracks in the armour seemingly. His main rivals all come with slight doubts, whether it be the ground in the case of Metier, the late decision of participation with Soaring Glory or an unlikely reversal of form for Ballyadam and Blue Lord with the favourite. 

One angle worth exploring however may be a back to lay back on the Betfair exchange with For Pleasure, the likely outsider of the field. He is a blazing front runner who once they finally worked out the way to ride him at Stratford last July, has subsequently won three further races and gone up 37lbs in the weights for doing so. The final win came on his penultimate start, here at Cheltenham, when bursting a long way clear early and beating Third Time Lucki pretty comfortably in the end. That horse is considered by Harry Skelton as his most exciting ride of the week in the County Hurdle, and they pulled well clear of the rest. I'm not suggesting that I think he will win the race as I'm almost certain he won't, but he could well get a clear freebie again and he is worth backing in the win market (55 at time of writing) and leaving a lay-back at 10 to see how long he can last.

2.30 - Ultima Handicap Chase

A very competitive handicap chase, where cases can be made for many. Most bookmakers are offering extra places and one of the old boys of the party, Vintage Clouds. He has ran in the race for the last three years, twice finishing in the frame, and he is almost certain to give his running once again. Trainer Sue Smith has had a pretty torrid season, but in the last three weeks or so things have certainly started to pick up with a few winners. There were small shoots of a revival last time and with headgear on for the first time, he could go well under Ryan Mania.

3.40 - Mares Hurdle

Concertista and Roksana look set for a fantastic dual in this, with the Skelton team arriving in fantastic form after deciding to head here with Roksana rather than going to the World Hurdle. The one that could outrun her odds is the very likeable Indefatigable for the Paul Webber yard. She won at the meeting last year under Rex Dingle, who rides her again in this, getting up in the last stride to win the Martin Pipe, enhancing her already pretty impressive record at Prestbury Park. She was very disappointing last time out, but has had an extended break, and most importantly a wind operation since then. I think she has fair each way chance at around 20/1.

4.15 - Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

This would be the destination of my strongest bet of day one, with Coltor topping the list under Jonjo O'Neill jnr, just over a week since a nasty kick in the face at Leicester. Coltor is lightly raced, having only had three runs over hurdles, improving with each run culminating in a win at Naas last time, beating one of his opponents Zoffanien in the process off level weights. He gets 3lbs off that runner this time and will be tuned to the minute by the master trainer Dermot Weld, who has very few runners here. His last runner was a winner in the shape of Windsor Park at the 2016 Festival. Houx Gris is too short based on what he has achieved, his price mainly out down to the fact he is trained by a certain 'Mr P Nicholls', with Busselton the one in the field I fear most.

So there we go, fingers crossed for a winner or two before a big day, as far as my ante post book is concerned, on Wednesday!!

Be lucky

Clarence House Chase Preview

In this piece, for a bit of something different, I thought I'd look into the Clarence House Chase at Ascot on Saturday in a bit more detail. With doubt about Haydock staging their meeting, Ascot should be fine and the Clarence House Chase looks a cracker with an intriguing eight runner line-up. I'm now going to look at the profiles of the runners in the field and hopefully pick out the winner.

1 - Bun Doran (Tom George/Sean Bowen) - Bun Doran has been a star for the Tom George stable with placed efforts in the Grand Annual and best of all the Queen Mother Champion Chase 2020 behind Politologue. He had a great season last term winning the Desert Orchid Chase too, his first at Graded level, but he has always pulled up just short at the top level and is likely to do so once again here.

Defi Du Seuil tries to repeat last year's success, but needs to bounce back

 

2 - Defi Du Seuil (Phillip Hobbs/Richard Johnson) - Well, who knows where to start with Defi Du Seuil. He won this race twelve months ago in devastating style, laughing at Un De Sceaux, himself a three time winner of this race in his illustrious career. Going into Cheltenham, we were all looking forward to Altior v Chacun Pour Soi v Defi, but it was to be the biggest anti-climax of the jumps season, with Altior being pulled out before the day and Chacun Pour Soi on the morning of the race. Defi went off 2/5F and was never travelling before ultimately finishing a well beaten fourth. On his comeback, also at Cheltenham, he ran a similar race, never going with his usual zest. He has been given time and the signals have been positive from the yard, but it'll take a brave person to be 100% sure he'll run a race close to his best, however I really hope he does.

3 - Duc Des Genievres (Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob) - Duc Des Genievres has a very similar profile to that of Bun Doran. He hasn't won a race since the 2019 Arkle and despite a switch between arguably the two biggest training powerhouses in the UK & Ireland, that of Willie Mullins and now Paul Nicholls, it looks an uphill task for him to be winning this.

Fanion D'Estruval is very much untried at this level.

 

4 - Fanion D'Estruval (Venetia Williams/Charlie Deutsch) - One of a couple of potential flies in the ointment. This five year old has only one win on these shores which came at Newbury in handicap company on his British debut, anihilating a field of good handicappers. He was then pitched in deep at Kempton in the Wayward Lad Novice Chase over Christmas, where he was a close up fifth in a race run in a very fast time. Missing the Arkle at the Festival, he reappeared at Cheltenham in November when beaten into second off top weight in the big field handicap, a good feat for any five year old, before falling three out when still going well in the rearranged Peterborough Chase at the same course last time. He is potentially a big threat here as we know he has a lot of natural ability, but this is his stiffest task to date. 

5 - First Flow (Kim Bailey/David Bass) - The other fly!! First Flow has won his last five starts but this is his hardest test over fences by some way. However, on the flip side, First Flow is a confirmed mudlark, he'd splash through a reservoir for you, but his jumping hasn't been good enough in recent times. I'd have to prefer Fanion D'Estruval of the two unexposed runners.

6 - Le Patriote (Dr Richard Newland/Charlie Hammond) - Le Patriote is the only novice in the field having only had four starts over fences, winning two of them. He has won a Swinton Hurdle at Haydock and actually ran well in last season's Champion Hurdle, but he has a huge task to be competitive here.

Politologue winning the Champion Chase back at Cheltenham pre-Covid!!

 

7 - Politologue (Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden) - Politologue, the current Champion Chase winner and a Tingle Creek winner last time out, showing the fire burns very bright indeed. Both of those wins have been impressive and arguably the best two performances of his whole career despite him now being a ten year old. The storyline this week in the lead-up to the race has been the change of jockey for the horse, with Harry Cobden replacing Harry Skelton, due to the latter's commitments riding Nube Negra. Of course he has every chance, but is against stiffer opposition than Sandown last time out and with potential competition for the lead, I'd be a layer rather than a backer at 5/4.

Waiting Patiently ventures south to Ascot again, nearly three years after his Ascot Chase win

 

8 - Waiting Patiently (Ruth Jefferson/Brian Hughes) - Waiting Patiently was supplemented into the race earlier in the week, and of course already has winning form around Ascot, with a win in the 2018 Ascot Chase. He was a brilliant second in the King George over three miles at Christmas, returning after over a year off the track and the drop down a mile in trip is certainly not an issue based on his length defeat behind Defi Du Seuil in the 2019 Tingle Creek Chase. If the gallop is a strong one, which I think it will be, I think Waiting Patiently is the one to be with.

It promises to be a cracking race, on a great day of racing.

Enjoy and take care.

Southwell picks 20/01/2021

Just a quick one today, with two selections for the Southwell card on Wednesday. There are some small field races early in the card so I only have a couple of picks later on.

David Barron has more Southwell wins than any other trainer

7.00 - Deevious Beau - Deevious Beau lines up in a 0-50 classified stakes for Andrew 'Midge' Mullen and the leading trainer on Southwell's Fibresand of all time David Barron. David is a dab hand with horses making a transition from other synthetic tracks onto Fibresand and this gelding is still lightly raced. The intriguing bit is the big gamble that took place pre-Wolverhampton last time out on his return from five months off, being backed from 50/1 into a starting price of 14/1, before doing everything wrong in the race itself. After pulling so hard, he only got beaten four lengths and the winner has won again since, so the form has worked out nicely. I'm sure he will improve and looks a big player. Keep an eye on San Juan in the market for the shrewd Shaun Keightley.

7.30 - Dylan's Lad - Locally trained by the legend that is Roy Bowring, Dylan's Lad appeared to massively appreciate a drop to five furlongs here last time under the wily old fox Jimmy Quinn. Ali Rawlinson (affectionately known as Bongo) takes over this time around and this late developer can take another step forward here. He faces off with Dark Side Prince again but I think he may be able to get the better of him this time around.

I mentioned him just the other day but True Companion may run tomorrow in the 6.30 and if so, would be interesting on first start for Lucinda Egerton ridden by young Fred Larson.

On a brief sidenote, I know primarily in these I am focusing on the Southwell meetings, but I do love the jumping equally as much, and Susie Mac, who lines up in a jumpers bumper at Newcastle, is very highly thought. Brian Hughes has had her since she left Kevin Ryan, and reappears after a fair lay-off here for new connections in the shape of Gill Boanas, who is enjoying a really good time of things. Brian is in the saddle too and I'm looking forward to seeing her reappear. Danger Money in the 2.20pm is another horse I like running on the card.

I'll be back again tomorrow with another post. 

Take care and be lucky!

Eyecatchers and a Southwell selection for 19/1/2021

Come On Teddy (centre) secured himself a place in the Pertemps Final

 

I've decided to pick out four eyecatchers from the last week of racing in this post, all of them hopefully capable of going close next time out. I will also chuck in a selection for Southwell on Tuesday as well for good measure which can hopefully land the odds too. Eyecatchers first though:

 

Clongowes (Daniel Steele) 6th at Plumpton 13th January

Clongowes is a steadily improving hurdler who now qualifies for a handicap mark after yet another effort of promise at Plumpton in deep ground. He was rated 90 on the Flat and you will find value in his price next time given the yard from which he hails. He seems to act on most ground is worth popping on the tracker.

Jay Bee Why (Alan King) 5th at Warwick 16th January

Jay Bee Why finished behind some very smart horses in the Leamington Novices Hurdle, and looks a horse with a huge amount of potential. The winner Adrimel defied a penalty of 3lbs for Richard Johnson, with the battle-hardened Mint Condition, Cheltenham winner Make Me A Believer and Midnight River in fourth. Going into the race with just one hurdles run before, that being an easy victory also at Warwick, this was a huge effort to be only beaten three lengths. He could have an each way chance at the Festival in one of the novice races should he go for one, but regardless, he is a smart horse going forward.

Come On Teddy (Tom George) 3rd at Warwick 16th January

Come On Teddy qualified for the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival by finishing third in the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick. This progressive individual travelled strongly at the rear of the field alongside eventual winner Imperial Alcazar, and both of them met trouble on the home turn, in which Come On Teddy came out worse. As they were quickening for the final flight, there was a bit of a pile-up involving three horses, two of which sadly had to be put-down, but once again Come On Teddy came out worse of the two. He ultimately got beat five lengths but deserved to be closer. The key point to note is that he won easily at Cheltenham in November and could be a proper player off a low weight if he gets in. (would have done last year)

Holy Tiber (Chelsea Banham) 11th at Lingfield 16th January

Holy Tiber lined up in the 7f Bombardier Handicap at Lingfield on Saturday, with an SP of 11/1 suggesting she had each way claims beforehand, which would be an accurate assessment in a wide open contest. The race became messy quite early on as Desert Dream, who had made most to win at Wolverhampton recently, was drawn very wide meaning rider Cieren Fallon had to do plenty of work to get across before the first bend, causing a bit of a domino effect in behind. Holy Tiber was held up in rear as normal before being repeatedly denied a clear run up the home straight for Joey Haynes. If you stop the replay as they straighten for home, he is the only jockey on the bridle and almost immediately got into trouble. For the remainder of the race, she had nowhere to go and her rider sat up in the irons to bring her home. She is one for the tracker on her next three starts.

As for the Southwell card, there are plenty of "spin the bottle" races earlier on in the card, but I think my bets will surround the last two races. If Nick Vedder reppears, then I think he will regain the winning thread in the 7.10pm for Kieran Shoemark and trainer Robyn Brisland. He ran at the track yesterday over seven furlongs, and after missing the break, struggled to land a blow. The three ahead of him at the line were in the first four leaving the back straight, showing they didn't go very quick and that didn't suit. I don't think he's as effective over seven furlongs, plus he ended up on the far rail. Back to six furlongs and some pace in the race, he should get back to winning ways. 

Obviously with a slight doubt to his participation, I thought I'd look away from him in case, and Rathbride Prince could go well in the last at 7.40pm. He's on my tracker after his run at Wolverhampton four starts ago, his first for trainer Ian Williams, one of the shrewdest dual-purpose operators in the business. He has ran twice at Lingfield for this yard, a track which doesn't suit him and having his first start here, I think he will outrun his price. His sire Pour Moi has had a couple of Fibresand winners from a small sample size and Martin Dwyer may try and bounce out prominently and hopefully stay there.

I'll be back tomorrow for a look at Wednesday's racing.

Take care and be lucky.

Southwell preview 15/01/2021

Elder statesman Joe Fanning has some good chances on the card

 

Southwell hosts a weekend warm-up on Friday evening with another seven race programme under the now familiar LED floodlights, the only ones in the UK.

4.30pm: 0-52 handicap over 1m

A trappy event to start proceedings. Van Dijk picked up the pieces to win here last week in a race where the frontrunners cut each others' throats so much they stopped to near enough a walk, leaving a closer to pick them off late. That was his first win in 21 starts and now has a 5lb penalty to shoulder. The British Lion roared back to form (sorry!!) here when second behind a well handicapped winner twelve days ago and again holds claims, as does Socru. There are two I like at prices however. Tavrina went firmly into my tracker after an eyecatching stable debut effort at Wolverhampton where having raced keenly and wide throughout, stayed on well to not be beaten too far ultimately. Shaun Keightley is a shrewd operator and sire New Approach's progeny go well enough on this surface to suggest he can go well. The other is True Companion who raced behind and also on the far rail up the home straight here on New Year's Day for Roger Fell. He was then withdrawn two days later and is now in the care of Lucinda Egerton. On top of that, he runs in the colours of former trainer Hugh Beggs and Tyler Heard is replaced by Luke Morris. Any market move would be significant.

5.00pm: 0-70 handicap over 1m

A race which surrounds Star Of St James and whether he can replicate his easy success here eight days ago. George Bass takes over from Graham Lee to try and negate the penalty which he now has to deal with since his 6 1/2 length victory. Headland also won on that card for the in-form Scott Dixon stable but will need more again to score here. Good old Custard The Dragon is still yet to win over a mile but got very close to breaking that hoodoo here last time and this seven time course winner will go well again. The value may come from Makambe if it stays as an eight runner field, with a return to this track and reapplied cheekpieces both suiting him particularly well. He is also 6lb below his last winning mark and Chelsea Banham has had some winners over recent weeks.

5.30pm: Median Auction Maiden stakes over 7f

Not an obvious standout runner in here with Open Mystery bringing the best form to the table after two placed efforts and a handicap mark of 70. Both Mehmento and Pina Collada hail from big stables in Archie Watson and Mark Johnston respectively, and would obviously both be players if taking to the surface on debut. Similar comments apply to Business Flight, who has an all-American dirt pedigree and Robert Cowell isn't averse to having winners here. Any money for Chantreys would be of note too. It's a no bet race for me, but Business Flight's pedigree does appeal.

6.00pm: 0-55 handicap over 6f

This is a race I went round and round in circles with as most of the leading protagonists are inconsistent. First Excel is probably the most likely to run well after a good effort at Wolverhampton. If I had to play, I might play Kommander Kirkup with extra places who is very well handicapped and will be running on at the end to pass beaten horses.

6.30pm: Maiden stakes over 5f

Not exactly the strongest maiden the world has ever seen. A repeat of his very narrow defeat in handicap company last time will see Unleash go extremely close to winning for jockey Joe Fanning, who could be in for a good night. Acquisator has been frustrating, having had six starts now and the headgear is reached for now as well. Expert Opinion was a well beaten second here last time on his fourth start, just finishing ahead of Cahors on the same terms once again. Cobh Kid is another with a chance, but the weight he has to give away must be a worry, with Big Thanks another you can make a case for. In summary, I'm not sure where to go outside of Unleash, provided he backs up his last run at the track.

7.00pm: 0-60 handicap over 5f

An interesting heat where cases can be made for plenty of them. Marwari looks a very interesting Fibresand debutant given his breeding following a good win at Newcastle last time out. He's up 5lb for that but that might not stop him. The other last time out winner is Gossip for Scott Dixon. The first four home from that race reoppose, with Red Stripes, Leo Minor and Brandy Station just in behind. Of the four, I'd narrowly prefer Leo Minor of the four. Heartstar could go well as well as she seems to act best either here or Bath, and It's All Clover Now is a horse I've been waiting to go well in something like this. I'll go for Marwari, but It's All Clover Now is worth watching given the yard resurgance. 

7.30pm: 0-65 handicap over 1m6f

Artistic Streak hacked up here last week over 2m and is 4lb well-in even with her penalty for the bang in-form Donald McCain yard, and ridden by daughter Ella. Mr Carbonator is very consistent and no doubt will give his running again with Taima a potential improver for Sir Mark Prescott. Be My Sea adds a bit of intrigue returning to the Flat after a decent run over hurdles at Ascot recently, and he is a course and distance winner back in 2016. However, having said all that, Artistic Streak will be the pick, but at his likely odds, not a bet.

There we are, another Southwell preview complete! More Fibresand action on Sunday for which I will record a Soundcloud preview on Saturday night through this link.

I will confirm on Twitter when it is live; follow me on Twitter @willbowler2k12

Enjoy the sport and take care.

Top class action on a busy Saturday (weather permitting!) 09/01/21

Calipso Collonges can go well in the Chepstow showpiece. (c)Nigel Kirby

 

Luckily, the weather seems to have taken a slightly more positive turn over Thursday and into Friday, which will hopefully allow for a full compliment of jumps meetings. With the rearranged Dipper Novices Chase at Wincanton, the rescheduled Relkeel Hurdle at Kempton alongside an intriguing renewal of the Silviniaco Conti Chase. The Welsh National is a race I've always had a soft spot for and I have a selection for the big race who can hopefully run well at a decent price.

I have put together five selections, all of which should be fair prices and could be worth chucking in an each way Lucky 31, or something of that ilk, and fingers crossed, we can pick up some pennies. Let's get into it:

El Conquistador 11.30 Lingfield

A tricky way to start the day but El Conquistador is a horse I've been waiting to reappear after an eyecatching effort over a mile here last time out, for which he has been dropped two pounds. He is running over 1m2f this time and has the tongue tie on for the first time, which could bring about further improvement. Trainer Shaun Keightley is an extremely shrewd operator and this lightly raced runner could easily have scope off his mark of 63. Dangers are the hat-trick seeking Subliminal, long distance traveller Corked and Sophosc, who showed a bit more last time and is well handicapped.

Smarty Wild 1.10 Kempton

Smarty Wild lines up here for the Philip Hobbs team, and is still lightly raced over larger obstacles, and I strongly suspect this test will be ideal. Racing in the colours of Gunther McBride, who ran in four Racing Post Chases at this venue in the early noughties including a win in 2002, has had just the three starts over fences and showed plenty of promise. He was well fancied at Wetherby two starts ago, where he didn't travel very well after clouting an obstacle down the back straight, before finishing a good third in better company at Ascot last time. The heavy, sticky ground that day won't have helped and these conditions, together with a drop in grade can see him go very close.

Santon 1.30 Wincanton

Santon makes his handicap debut for Tom Cannon and Alan King. He survived Trevor Hemmings' dispersal and remains a horse with potential after catching the eye in all of his novice hurdles to varying degrees, particularly last time out behind Bobhopeornohope at Doncaster, beating a previous and subsequent winner in the process. A mark of 115 is fair and I'm expecting a big run. Sizeable Sam would be a main danger, and he is a horse I like, particularly going over fences next term.

Calipso Collonges 3.10 Chepstow

Welsh National time!! Cases can be made for loads of these, particularly the favourite Secret Reprieve, who is 8lbs well in after his win here in the 'Trial' for this, beating The Two Amigos and Bobo Mac in the process. However, the trip is a slight concern for him, unlike his stablemate Prime Venture, who was fourth in the race last year and reappeared this term with an easy Sedgefield win. Last year's second and third also line up again, Truckers Lodge and Yala Enki, both trained by Paul Nicholls, and have solid claims of going well again. However, if you want one at a price, you could do worse than Calipso Collonges, who travelled like a dream at Aintree in the Becher Chase last time out, where after travelling beautifully up until the home turn, just blowing up and needing the run late on. He will have come on for that, has a featherweight for last year's winning rider Jack Tudor, and can hopefully be given a patient ride and gradually pick runners off one by one, and with extra places which most bookies will be offering, can run a big race.

Doyannie 3.50 Chepstow

Finally, Doyannie lines up in the Chepstow finale for James Best and Jack Barber. She is another making her handicap debut and looks as though a mark of 109 could be well within range. She has shown more than enough promise in her novice hurdle outings so far, in particular last time out, and given that the front two in the market, Whiteoak Fleur and Poniente both like to get on with it, it could pay to be on a horse a little bit off the speed.

Hopefully the weather is kind and we can look forward to a great day of top quality sport. I'll be back on Sunday having a review of Saturday's action, plus a look ahead to Monday's action at Doncaster.

Be lucky and most importantly in these times, stay safe.

Southwell preview 08/01/2021

It is "silly season" at Southwell, with racing multiple times in a week in recent times, with the course regulars out in force. After a frustrating Thursday of crossbar hitting, Friday's card yet again poses a few puzzles to work out so hopefully we can solve them starting with a three year old handicap.

4.15: 0-75 handicap for three year olds over 1m

Despite the small field, further down the line this contest could prove quite a decent event for future winners. Blue Hero heads the market for Mick Appleby and Andrew 'Midge' Mullen, and is definitely the one they have to beat after a very good second place finish on his first start for current connections at Wolverhampton behind Final Voyage, himself rated 89 before that race, and also not getting the smoothest of passages. He has proven his liking for this venue on his final start for Michael Bell when third and cheekpieces are applied for the first time. His four rivals are yet to try the surface, although both Smart Qibili and Deep Impression are bred to enjoy the conditions, with the former arguably the more interesting given his strong travelling nature and American dirt pedigree. However, despite his skinny odds, and also in receipt of weight from both those opponents, Blue Hero can get off the mark. It may also be noteworthy that the same trainer and owners combined to win this last year with Merryweather.

4.45: 0-65 handicap over 7f

A race in which good recent form is brought to the table by Greek Kodiac, trained by Kevin Foy, who has made a good start to his training career after being assistant to James Fanshawe for many years. He won at Newcastle last time but now tackles Fibresand for the first time, a comment which can be made about Luna Wish after her Wolverhampton second last time out. On the assumption Motawaafeq won't run after his exertions on Thursday, Al Batal and Daafy bring placed form into the mix, with the latter my preferred runner of the two after a very promising second over 1m here last time. He is a huge horse who may well have needed that run and with the apprentice of the moment Laura Pearson aboard again together with the in-form stable, must play a part. I selected Six Strings as one of my five to follow for the All-Weather season for Betway (see here), and he now returns to his favoured Fibresand for the first time since joining John Quinn and interestingly cheekpieces are re-applied for the first time since January 2019 so he could easily bounce back to form. I'll take those two against the field but if there is any money for Mayson Mount, that must be noted given shrewd connections and pedigree.

5.15: 0-85 handicap over 6f

Now, the difficulty of this is at the time of writing, both Samovar (winner) and Giogiobbo (sixth), at the top of the market, both ran on Thursday, so there remains an element of doubt as to whether they will turn up. Samovar has ran quickly back to back in the past and would be the most likely to reappear. Thrave won a seller here last time, showing his first sign of life for around eighteen months and in the process gave Frederick Larson his first winner. He would obviously have a chance, but whether he can back that up is a huge question mark. Oakenshield certainly catches the eye on second start for Linda Stubbs, primarily because of the booking of Hollie Doyle. He could be ahead of his mark given how lightly raced he is and certainly has the pedigree to act well on the track. I'm going to end up throwing a few pennies each way on Katheefa here for Ruth Carr and Jimmy Sullivan. Ruth's horses are in the best form they've been in for some time and despite some desparate form figures lately, only one of those was here and that was over 5f (outpaced completely). However he is 4-8 over this course and distance, including a win in this race last year off a 6lb higher mark. Interestingly, a tongue tie is applied for the first time as well.

5.45: 0-60 handicap over 2m

Not the strongest heat in the world but cases can be made for a few of them, with Artistic Streak probably the horse with the most solid recent form. A good recent run at Wolverhampton came two starts after a course and distance win, when showing a great attitude. Cheap Jack returns after a short break for the evergreen Ron Thompson and Paul Mulrennan, who rode this lad to victory over 1m4f in October. The trip is definitely a question mark for him. Lady Camelot and Restive could well go well if showing their best Southwell form, but if you forced a selection out of me it'd probably be Irish Minister for Luke Morris. He is yet to win at Southwell but has some fair efforts in defeat, and should they go hard up front, he will keep plodding on.

6.15: Novice Stakes (3yo+) over 6f

A novice in which the standard is set by the 68 rated Kevin The Minion after a second place finish here last time out, but there are a couple of dangerous opponents. Ghost Rider cost £55k and now makes his debut for Mark Johnston and has not got to be a world beater to land this one. Time Frame however has the benefit of experience after a debut run at Wolverhampton, and the James Tate runners are always to be feared at this venue. I'll plump for Time Frame as a selection, but I won't be having a bet.

6.45: 0-55 handicap over 1m6f

A low-grade staying handicap in which Heron will be at the top of the market for Brett Johnson, a yard who have been in great form for the last two months now, tries to win back to back races after a comfortable success three weeks ago. He is certainly bound to go very close, with Shine Baby Shine, a course regular and three time course winner a big danger. Amourie is yet to win in seventeen tries but did run well in fourth here last time in what was a strong race for the grade and no doubt will give her running again. Mister Universum ran well behind Heron over course and distance when fourth and could run well behind him again as I can't see Heron being beaten provided he turns up in the same form again.

7.15: 0-65 three year old only handicap over 5f

Not the easiest of races to work out at the end of the card, and one that I won't spend too much time on. The Gloaming has been a work in progress so far and has gradually improved run by run for a shrewd operation in Iain Jardine, who also has a good record at the track. She is the one I like here but I definitely fear Professor Galant, who already has three Southwell stamps in the passport. Vitalline is a rare raider from the Rod Millman yard, and the booking of Richard Kingscote and first time headgear could point the way to a big effort. Similar comments apply to the locally trained True Contendor for the very shrewd David Brown. A big market move would not be out of the equation for the latter.

As for best bets, I would select Heron as the nap and Katheefa can run very well in the 5.15, a race he won twelve months ago.

I'll be back again tomorrow with a look ahead to Saturday's racing, weather permitting!!

Southwell preview 7/1/2021

 Southwell plays host to a seven race All-Weather Championships card, mixed as ever with a clutch of course specialists and horses trying the surface for the first time.

The first race on the card is a prime example of that, with a 1m4f handicap for horses rated 0-75 at 12.45. There are likely to be two horses clear at the top of the market in the shape of recent Wolverhampton scorer Lord Of The Alps, and Grimsthorpe Castle, who has been very busy in recent weeks at this venue. Lord Of The Alps has only had nine career starts, yet none of them have come on the Fibresand and against five rivals who have 38 course runs between them. Grimsthorpe Castle on the other hand has ran seven times at the course, all of them since 27th October 2020, winning three and never being out of the first three. He has risen from a mark of 46 to 62 but should run a race again. One point that screams out to me here is the likely strong pace on offer. Both horses together with Cold Harbour have led in recent races and it could lead into a bit of a burn-up at the head of affairs. That's why I'd take an each way chance, especially with three places, on Contingency Fee, who is a dual winner at the track and might just be suited by the way the race will pan out. Jason Hart, who was in the winners at the last meeting, has a rare ride for the yard, in fact just his third and he could well run a big race after a better effort last time. Cold Harbour won this last year and again can be a player if he settles better than he has on his last two starts.

1.15: 0-80 handicap over 5f

A really tricky puzzle to solve. Three of these face-off again, six days after Thegreatestshowman narrowly beat Giogiobbo, with a further three lengths back to Dark Shot. It seems unlikely that the latter can get much closer to be honest, despite being well handicapped. Giogiobbo has a weight pull with Thegreatestshowman but I'm not so certain he can turn it around. If I had to have a bet, which of course I don't, I'd have a small win play on Slowmo, who is 4lb well-in and if breaking on terms could prove tough to beat.

1.45: 0-60 handicap over 1m

Another race in which recent course form appears again, with Motawaafeq a recent winner edging out the course specialist Custard The Dragon by a head over this course and distance. That run was a return to form for Motawaafeq, and a repeat would see him go very close. However, he isn't exactly consistent so is by no means a good thing. Olivers Pursuit comes here having won his last two races at Wolverhampton over the extended mile under George Bass, who retains the ride. If he acts on the track, he is the one to beat but the problem horse to him is the unexposed Pivotal Decision, trained by James Tate who has a high strike rate here. She's only had three starts and to date needs a bit more improvement, but a step up to a mile for the first time and first run on this surface, especially given she is by Pivotal, with a good strike-rate at the track, could well work the oracle.

2.15 0-80: handicap over 1m

Yet another devilishly tricky handicap with lots of course form on offer, with five course winners, including recent course winners Perfect Swiss and Fieldsman, alongside Star Of St James, Parellel World and Luscifer. However two of the three horses yet to try the surface may play a part. Fred hasn't ran for nearly ten weeks and now makes Fibresand debut for champion All-Weather rider Ben Curtis and Mark Johnston. The slight question mark is that his sire Frankel is yet to have one of his offspring win at Southwell from 8 tries, but he is out of a Dubawi mare so could easily figure. Yuften isn't to be dismissed too easily either. He is a very well handicapped horse who despite his ten year old legs, has shown that the fire still burns in a few runs for his current stable and he could easily outrun his likely double figure odds.

2.45: 0-70 handicap over 6f 

Samovar and Dirchill both ran at the course 4 days ago, with Samovar second and Dirchill third in their respective races, and both should run their races again. Dirchill did rather get an easy time of it last time and it remains to be seen what would happen if he was to get some kickback early on, especially as Samovar is drawn on his outside. Samovar has had a very busy run of things and it can be argued he is better at 5f. However, he has a tendancy to miss the break which isn't ideal. Ginger Max is capable of running a big race if they go very quick but I like Excessable, who has done very little wrong on three starts at the track and the race could work out well for him should he race prominently once again.

3.15: 0-50 classified race over 1m

Once again, we have recent course form to the fore here with Momtalik a short price favourite for Ivan Furtado, who has his horses in rude health. Momtalik was backed as if defeat was out of the question and duly obliged here four days ago, and was given a pretty aggresive ride too, which is a big concern that this might come too quickly. Zahirah and Walton Thorns were in behind there, but I think Zahirah will be able to turn the form around if able to be ridden handier. The addition of cheekpieces and a 5lb weight pull which includes Marco Ghiani's very useful claim will hopefully all add up to a victory. Muqarred is more than capable but hasn't been showing much at all for some time.

3.45: 0-60 apprentice handicap over 5f

Not the easiest way to end the day but the winner's in there somewhere!! I am a big fan of the Adrian Keatley yard and Compton's Finale would certainly come into this if acting on the track under Jessica Anderson, who will looking for her first winner. Tilsworth Rose looks relatively solid for that man John Jenkins, after blowing the start here last time. The only doubt I would have is the distance as I have a suspicion she may be better over 6f. I'm going to chance Brandy Station for the Lisa Williamson yard making his Fibresand debut. He is 3-8 in Class 6 company and a positive I like in these events are horses who have been ridden by their respective riders previously, and that is the case with Zak Wheatley who has ridden him on the last three occasions. He has also had lots of experience at this venue, with 25 rides and a couple of winners here too.

As far as best bets, I'll go for those last two races, Zahirah and Brandy Station.

I'll be back again tomorrow for a look at Friday's card.