Southwell preview 7/1/2021

 Southwell plays host to a seven race All-Weather Championships card, mixed as ever with a clutch of course specialists and horses trying the surface for the first time.

The first race on the card is a prime example of that, with a 1m4f handicap for horses rated 0-75 at 12.45. There are likely to be two horses clear at the top of the market in the shape of recent Wolverhampton scorer Lord Of The Alps, and Grimsthorpe Castle, who has been very busy in recent weeks at this venue. Lord Of The Alps has only had nine career starts, yet none of them have come on the Fibresand and against five rivals who have 38 course runs between them. Grimsthorpe Castle on the other hand has ran seven times at the course, all of them since 27th October 2020, winning three and never being out of the first three. He has risen from a mark of 46 to 62 but should run a race again. One point that screams out to me here is the likely strong pace on offer. Both horses together with Cold Harbour have led in recent races and it could lead into a bit of a burn-up at the head of affairs. That's why I'd take an each way chance, especially with three places, on Contingency Fee, who is a dual winner at the track and might just be suited by the way the race will pan out. Jason Hart, who was in the winners at the last meeting, has a rare ride for the yard, in fact just his third and he could well run a big race after a better effort last time. Cold Harbour won this last year and again can be a player if he settles better than he has on his last two starts.

1.15: 0-80 handicap over 5f

A really tricky puzzle to solve. Three of these face-off again, six days after Thegreatestshowman narrowly beat Giogiobbo, with a further three lengths back to Dark Shot. It seems unlikely that the latter can get much closer to be honest, despite being well handicapped. Giogiobbo has a weight pull with Thegreatestshowman but I'm not so certain he can turn it around. If I had to have a bet, which of course I don't, I'd have a small win play on Slowmo, who is 4lb well-in and if breaking on terms could prove tough to beat.

1.45: 0-60 handicap over 1m

Another race in which recent course form appears again, with Motawaafeq a recent winner edging out the course specialist Custard The Dragon by a head over this course and distance. That run was a return to form for Motawaafeq, and a repeat would see him go very close. However, he isn't exactly consistent so is by no means a good thing. Olivers Pursuit comes here having won his last two races at Wolverhampton over the extended mile under George Bass, who retains the ride. If he acts on the track, he is the one to beat but the problem horse to him is the unexposed Pivotal Decision, trained by James Tate who has a high strike rate here. She's only had three starts and to date needs a bit more improvement, but a step up to a mile for the first time and first run on this surface, especially given she is by Pivotal, with a good strike-rate at the track, could well work the oracle.

2.15 0-80: handicap over 1m

Yet another devilishly tricky handicap with lots of course form on offer, with five course winners, including recent course winners Perfect Swiss and Fieldsman, alongside Star Of St James, Parellel World and Luscifer. However two of the three horses yet to try the surface may play a part. Fred hasn't ran for nearly ten weeks and now makes Fibresand debut for champion All-Weather rider Ben Curtis and Mark Johnston. The slight question mark is that his sire Frankel is yet to have one of his offspring win at Southwell from 8 tries, but he is out of a Dubawi mare so could easily figure. Yuften isn't to be dismissed too easily either. He is a very well handicapped horse who despite his ten year old legs, has shown that the fire still burns in a few runs for his current stable and he could easily outrun his likely double figure odds.

2.45: 0-70 handicap over 6f 

Samovar and Dirchill both ran at the course 4 days ago, with Samovar second and Dirchill third in their respective races, and both should run their races again. Dirchill did rather get an easy time of it last time and it remains to be seen what would happen if he was to get some kickback early on, especially as Samovar is drawn on his outside. Samovar has had a very busy run of things and it can be argued he is better at 5f. However, he has a tendancy to miss the break which isn't ideal. Ginger Max is capable of running a big race if they go very quick but I like Excessable, who has done very little wrong on three starts at the track and the race could work out well for him should he race prominently once again.

3.15: 0-50 classified race over 1m

Once again, we have recent course form to the fore here with Momtalik a short price favourite for Ivan Furtado, who has his horses in rude health. Momtalik was backed as if defeat was out of the question and duly obliged here four days ago, and was given a pretty aggresive ride too, which is a big concern that this might come too quickly. Zahirah and Walton Thorns were in behind there, but I think Zahirah will be able to turn the form around if able to be ridden handier. The addition of cheekpieces and a 5lb weight pull which includes Marco Ghiani's very useful claim will hopefully all add up to a victory. Muqarred is more than capable but hasn't been showing much at all for some time.

3.45: 0-60 apprentice handicap over 5f

Not the easiest way to end the day but the winner's in there somewhere!! I am a big fan of the Adrian Keatley yard and Compton's Finale would certainly come into this if acting on the track under Jessica Anderson, who will looking for her first winner. Tilsworth Rose looks relatively solid for that man John Jenkins, after blowing the start here last time. The only doubt I would have is the distance as I have a suspicion she may be better over 6f. I'm going to chance Brandy Station for the Lisa Williamson yard making his Fibresand debut. He is 3-8 in Class 6 company and a positive I like in these events are horses who have been ridden by their respective riders previously, and that is the case with Zak Wheatley who has ridden him on the last three occasions. He has also had lots of experience at this venue, with 25 rides and a couple of winners here too.

As far as best bets, I'll go for those last two races, Zahirah and Brandy Station.

I'll be back again tomorrow for a look at Friday's card.