Cheltenham 2014 - Day 1 Preview

With only days to go before the roar erupts from the grandstands at Cheltenham, I thought it was time that I collated my views onto the blog for you to view. I have a few strong fancies which will become clear over the next few posts, and hopefully we can be up by the end of the week.

I will start with Day 1:

1.30 - Supreme Novice Hurdle:

Irving a good thing?

Irving is the red hot favourite for the opening race of the meeting, but I have three pretty serious doubts about him that make his price of 5/2 seem very skinny to me. The first one, although it may be a very minor concern, is that he has never run left handed before in this country, after wins at Taunton, Ascot twice and Kempton so far. The second is that he has come off the Flat and is an out and out two miler, whereas the past winners of this race suggest on the whole that you have to stay well, with Menorah, Al Ferof and Champagne Fever all recent winners, with the likes of L'Escargot, the dual Gold Cup and Grand National winner a past victor further back. Finally, I am not one to make a point about jockeys but Nick Scholfield has only ridden one Cheltenham Festival winner, Hunt Ball in the 2012 Pulteney Land Novice Handicap Chase, and only one Grade 1 winner, Melodic Rendezvous in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown. I just think with these concerns, he is very short at 5/2, and I'd rather be a layer than a backer.
The British handicapper reckons that Irving is rated 149 after his easy Dovecote success, but Vautour is rated 154, acts on all ground, stays well, copes with big fields and has the master Ruby Walsh on his back. The only slight concern is his jumping and the fact he probably won't get an easy lead but apart from that, he must go very close indeed.
I would much rather back Vautour of the two, but I do feel this is a race to fire a couple of each way bullets at double figure price horses.
I particularly like Gilgamboa should he line up for AP and JP. He was a smooth winner of the Boylesports.com hurdle at Leopardstown last time out, travelling very sweetly throughout before asserting close home under Mark Walsh. We will find out this weekend which race he goes for (this or the County Hurdle) but hopefully they will choose this race as he has the same pull factors as Vautour in terms of ground, field size, stamina and jockey.
Finally, Garde La Victoire might be worth a small each way bet as well if you can excuse his last run because of the tacky soft ground at Kempton, then he is no 33/1 chance. He has form closely tied in with the likes of Ballyalton and Regal Encore, both horses I rate very highly plus his narrow defeat behind Ballyalton at Cheltenham proves he acts at the course.

As for the others, I don't think Josses Hill is quite ready for this given his profile, plus he can make the odd bad error. Wicklow Brave has been tipped up by many for this but his jumping left plenty to be desired last time. Splash Of Ginge needs softer ground to be seen to best effect and Vaniteux although very impressive visually at Doncaster last time out, may not find much off the bridle if asked. Sgt Reckless and Un Ace both have small chances at big odds too.

2.05 The Irish Independent Arkle:

Can Rock On Ruby win again at Cheltenham?

An intriguing renewal of the Arkle with two past Cheltenham winners towards the top of the market. Champagne Fever is the favourite and to be honest, I think he will be very hard to beat. Although beaten by Defy Logic over Christmas, Ruby Walsh was arguably guilty of getting into an unnecessary pace battle with him, forcing his bad error two out and leaving him no chance of catching Defy Logic thereafter. He schooled well after racing at Leopardstown and don't forget, he's won at the last two Festivals so will be extremely hard to beat. Rock On Ruby hasn't had enough of a test of fences yet to be clear as to whether he is as good over fences as he was hurdles, beating a total of two horses in two runs over fences. He will however relish the good ground and has a very good record at Cheltenham, but personally, there isn't enough for me to back him at around 9/2.
I couldn't have Dodging Bullets given his record last spring where he completely lost his form, but I may be completely wrong with that. Trifolium is the biggest threat to Champagne Fever to me, but I will stick with Champagne Fever to fend him off up the hill for a win perspective.
On the each way side of things, I fear that although Valdez was good last time, that he isn't quite this good, likewise Ted Veale who has struggled against the likes of Trifolium all season. Grandouet has an in and out profile both at Cheltenham and over fences which make him tough to judge, but he is overpriced if he can return to his form of a quarter of a length defeat behind Hinterland at Sandown at the start of December. Arnaud is another who could go well at a price, considering all his best form is on good ground.

2.40 Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase:

Ackertac going down narrowly to Triolo D'Alene last season

A race that I will have a more clear view on once the final declarations come out on Monday, although there is a horse entered that I fancy strongly. He is a big price, but I feel Ackertac could go well for Tim Vaughan after his excellent second place at the Festival last year behind Rajdhani Express. Course form is so important at Cheltenham, and this lad has lots of it, winning at the April meeting after that second place at 66/1. His mark has dropped a few pounds this season after running below par on desperate ground which he doesn't like, so I think he can be a real player at 33/1. Alfie Sherrin would be another I'll be backing should he get into the race after winning it two years ago. I don't fancy Hadrian's Approach at all as I don't like his jumping in a big field.

3.20: Champion Hurdle:

The New One was electric in the 2013 Neptune Novices Hurdle

What a race we have to look forward to here! Hurricane Fly, the dual champion is back again and as usual has been winning the Grade 1s at Leopardstown through the season, beating Our Conor and Jezki twice. Although he is probably less effective at Cheltenham than Leopardstown, it doesn't mean he doesn't act here which is quite obvious with 2 Champion Hurdles on the mantlepiece. My Tent Or Yours and The New One are very closely matched on the Christmas Hurdle form in which My Tent Or Yours mowed down The New One after he made a horlicks of the last hurdle. Now many people have views about the outcome of that race had The New One not made that mistake, but I personally feel that he would have won had he not made the error, but I understand the other side of the argument. The New One has a very good Cheltenham record and I am confident that he is the one to beat and I'm certain he will beat My Tent Or Yours in a battle up the hill. Our Conor is a huge danger given how easily he won the Triumph Hurdle previously and his trainer Dessie Hughes being adamant that he will be prepared for just one race only all season and it is this race. Jezki needs two and a half miles and I would be intrigued if Un De Sceaux turned up, although he has it to do.
Finally, Melodic Rendezvous won't get his ground and is likely to be outpaced. In summary, I am sweet on The New One, with Our Conor the chief threat, together with Un De Sceaux should he run.

4.00 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle:

Can she make it 6?

This race is all about Quevega and it is very hard to see her being beaten if she is at her best. Only a few appeal to me each way and they are Sirene D'Ainay and Down Ace but I think this is a race to watch and admire a brilliant mare making Cheltenham history.

4.40 Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase:

Foxrock has a huge chance for owner Barry Connell

I don't have a great deal to offer here apart from that I think Foxrock will be very hard to beat for Barry Connell, Ted and Katie Walsh. Katie has a lot of Cheltenham experience and has ridden a few winners at the course over the years, and on a day where Ruby is likely to have at least two winners, this looks a good opportunity for more Walsh celebrations. Shotgun Paddy has slight jumping concerns, but if you want one at a really big price, Beeves could go close for Donald McCain.

5.15: Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase:

Manyriverstocross (left) giving Oscar Whisky a race at Sandown last time

A fiercely competitive race to end the card but it does feature one of my lays of the meeting. That is Pendra, who is a horse that has been overhyped from the very start, with his wins in his career coming at Plumpton (x2), Carlisle, Lingfield and Huntingdon, all middle of the road tracks. He ran well on bottomless ground to be second in the Tolworth Hurdle but ran a shocker in the Coral Cup last season and terribly last time out at Ascot. He is effectively a disappointment considering all the chat. His trainer Charlie Longsdon hasn't had a Festival winner yet and is just 1-67 in all at the course.
Manyriverstocross however is one I like the most here, particularly after his trainer said that he was his best chance of a winner all week. He gave Oscar Whisky something to think about in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown last time, and has plenty of good form at Cheltenham, including finishing third in the County Hurdle last year. I'm certain he will be in the shake up.
Baby Mix and Buywise could both go well at decent prices.

Fingers crossed we can start the week off well, find a winner and a bit of value.

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Will