Thursday 14 March 2013

Cheltenham Day 4 Preview

After three days of top class action, we save the best until last, with the centrepiece, The Cheltenham Gold Cup, one of the few British races known around the world. It is a vintage renewal, with so many top class second season chasers in particular lining up. The undercard is good as well, including the County Hurdle, a fiercely quick and competitive race for punters. I'll try my best to find as many winners as I can in this preview, and give my views on why I don't fancy some horses too.

1.30 - Triumph Hurdle - 2m:

A field jam packed full of nice horses, headed in the market by Our Conor for Dessie Hughes. He has looked very professional and jockey Bryan Cooper is very sweet on him. However, in a race as competitive as this, I will look for an each way angle. The safest two at the top of the market are past course winners Rolling Star and Far West, although the ground will be much quicker for them this time. Last year's winning trainer John Quinn has a pair of contenders in the shape of Kashmir Peak and Hidden Justice, both of whom are improving and could easily run well. The two I quite like however are Swynmor but moreso
Lac Fontana. Swynmor should be a Grade 1 winner over hurdles before coming to grief at the final flight in the Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow. He had a break and a confidence boosting spin at Doncaster last time. He could easily place in this race. Lac Fontana is a horse who has had things go against him to date, running in behind slow paces and on deep ground. I think an end to end gallop on better ground could be right up his alley and I think he's a good each way bet.

2.05 - County Hurdle - 2m:

A minefield of a handicap hurdle, which will be run at a mad gallop over two miles. Favourite Cotton Mill shouldn't be too far away for Denis O'Regan, after a fantastic second to My Tent Or Yours at Newbury. Ted Veale will have his supporters, mainly the Irish, but I feel he may come up a little short here. I think Tennis Cap needs an easy lead, something he definitely won't get here. My four against the field however are Ifandbutwhynot, Clerks Choice, Hisaabaat and It's A Gimme. Ifandbutwhynot is a course winner for David O'Meara who has shown an impressive turn of foot in recent times, especially at Musselburgh last time out under top weight. He has a nice racing weight of 10st 7lbs and shouldn't be far away. Clerks Choice only has a small each way chance but he is one I've had in mind for this race for a while. Hisaabaat is my main selection under Micheal Nolan. He was second in the Triumph last year and recorded 2 Grade 1 victories last term at Leopardstown and Punchestown. He comes to life in the Spring and I think he will go very well indeed. It's A Gimme is a much better horse on better ground, so his last run is a write off. He will be finishing well, but it's Hisaabaat for me.

2.40 - Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle - 3m:
Can At Fishers Cross beat Inish Island again?

A corker of an Albert Bartlett, where cases can be made for many. Favourite At Fishers Cross received a timely boost when The New One, the horse he chinned on Trials Day over this course and distance in January, won the Neptune impressively on Wednesday. I think he will take plenty of beating. Ballycasey looks pretty slow from what I have seen and I'm willing to oppose him at skinny enough odds. His stablemate Inish Island has a bit to find with At Fishers Cross from December, but won't be far away. Utopie Des Bordes is far too short for me, and I don't fancy her at all. African Gold looks really exciting and I think he will run a very big race and has a good each way chance, as does the other Rebecca Curtis runner O'Faolains Boy, a horse I've been really impressed with to date, on the clock and visually. He has to step up but there is no reason whatsoever why he can't do that under Jason Maguire. Our Vinnie and Cloudy Copper are others with claims in an open race.

3.20 - Betfred Gold Cup - 3m2f110y:

What a renewal this is. It brings together two dual Festival winners in Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth, a previous winner and dual King George hero in Long Run, a Gold Cup second The Giant Bolster, last years Pertemps Final winner Cape Tribulation, an Arkle winner Captain Chris, a Grand National second Sunnyhillboy and that's without mentioning Silviniaco Conti!! Sir Des Champs is the one to beat for Willie Mullins, after his fantastic win in last years Jewson, where he jumped so well, bouncing off the better ground. His jumping has been a concern in Ireland this season, but after jumping so well on better ground last year, that should be the same again. Bobs Worth is hard to knock, with my only concern the fact he hasn't run for over 100 days, a big worry for me. I'm willing to oppose him at 11/4. Silviniaco Conti is a horse I like, but there are mixed messages from the Nicholls camp regarding the suitability of the track. Last year, he bypassed the Festival as Nicholls said 'the track doesn't really suit him', now he is lining up in the biggest test of his career at Cheltenham! Again, I'm willing to oppose.
Long Run is my selection. He is a horse who thrives on a strong pace, both his King George's and his Gold Cup coming off very fast paces. He has been beaten when in steadily run affairs, last years Gold Cup and this seasons Betfair Chase just two examples. I think he is a fantastic each way bet.
The Giant Bolster and Cape Tribulation will try hard without winning.

4.00 - Foxhunters Chase - 3m2f110y:

Salsify comes back again to try and defend his crown under Colman Sweeney, and I think he will be hard to beat. He jumps very well, and has come to the boil at the right time after beating Tammys Hill last time at Leopardstown. He is classy and should be able to beat Chapoturgeon again. Backstage is a fascinating runner for Jamie Codd and Gordon Elliott, a winner of his last seven point to points. Cottage Oak has to improve, but has looked impressive to date with a nice win at Haydock his latest triumph. Dante's Storm will run well too for Alan Hill, after a fantastic display of jumping at Doncaster last time. Galant Nuit interests me for Ferdy Murphy. He is a course winner over a little bit further, and has placed at the Festival behind Ballabriggs as well. He has come back from injury with three point wins and has the useful Mike Fogarty on board. 33/1 is too big.

4.40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle - 2m4f110y:

An open handicap where Gevrey Chambertin will be popular for David Pipe in the race named after his Dad. He is very progressive and looked a serious tool when hacking up at Wincanton last time. Tom Bellamy takes a good 6lbs off and he should go very well. Edeymi is very interesting on his last run alone, where he was a huge eyecatcher under this rider. However, I thought he was being aimed at the Coral Cup and has rerouted to this race, which would be a slight negative, and I'll oppose him. I like Art Professor for Venitia Williams here under Harry Challoner. He was only fifth in this race last year when his stable were in poor form. He lines up here off the same mark and with Venetia Williams' horses in great form all season, and at 25/1, he's a big price.

5.15 - Grand Annual Challenge Cup - 2m110y:

A tough, but very good renewal of the closing race of the Festival. Alderwood has been targeted for this race from some way off, but I think his jumping is a problem in a big field on fast ground. I'm not an Ulck Du Lin fan at all, as I think he needs a deep surface on an easier course. Viva Colonia has been getting some good reports from the North after a nice win at Musselburgh last time. Rody is another one with a chance too. But I like two here, Kid Cassidy and His Excellency. The former has a similar profile to last years victor Bellvano, and is also ridden by Paul Carberry, who will ride this one very patiently indeed. His Excellency is one I've fancied for this ever since he ran Shooters Wood close here in December. He needs an end to end gallop, and ran really well behind Simonsig on Tuesday so should run his race at around 20/1.

If you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Best of luck,
Will

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