Friday 14 December 2012

15th December Preview

Saturday is another great day of jumps racing, with Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield hosting very competitive and informative cards. In this preview, I will focus mainly on Cheltenham, but mention any horses or races of interest at Doncaster. (Lingfield yet to inspect at time of writing).

CHELTENHAM:

It is pretty easy to say how the ground will ride after seeing Fridays racing at Cheltenham, and that is testing. They kick off at 12.10 with a Triumph Hurdle Trial. It is hard to get away from Far West, a winner here last time over course and distance and on very testing ground. It is important to note that the courses are different from the Open Meeting, and he has a double penalty, but is running against pretty much the same horses here, having beaten Handazan, Dovils Date and Mr Lando either here or at Chepstow. The only one he hasn't beaten before is Tidal Way, but I don't quite think he's good enough.

The three mile one furlong novice chase at 12.45 looks a very informative race again, with Our Father sure to be right at the head of the market after an easy win here last time on bad ground. He's the safest option in a race it may pay to watch as opposed to get involved.

The Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase at 1.20 over two miles is always a spectacle. I am intrigued by Garynella, a five year old making his British debut for the David Pipe yard, but he has to compete from out of the handicap. All his form though is over further as well so I'll take a watching brief. I like Shooters Wood, with Ruby Walsh going to his lowest weight in the last five seasons to 10 stone. He won here last time out over course and distance, staying on well and must go very well again. One thing to note is the booking of Tony McCoy on His Excellency for the Pipe yard.

The three mile novices hurdle at 1.55 is a cracker, and can be approached from a few different angles. I may be a little biased after putting According To Trev up as a dark-horse at the start of the season, and he has a course win to his name, but he was beaten twelve lengths by Coneygree and I fear he needs better ground than this. I can't see him beating Coneygree, though I'd like to be wrong! The interesting aspect to this race is the chasers running back over hurdles. Midnight Appeal won a novice hurdle at Hereford recently but is better known for his exploits chasing. Aerial, who has finished placed in a Paddy Power Gold Cup, and Grand National winner Mon Mome still going strong at the age of twelve. Aerial may just shade it for me, as he is highest rated of these if taking his chase mark, he should stay and tends to do well at this track.

The Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup is one of the feature races of the day at 2.30, and it is wide open. Walkon is a narrow favourite after a very good second behind Al Ferof here last month, but he is very good fresh and tailed off after seasonal debut last year. My preference is for Cristal Bonus, who was impressive last time at Down Royal. Despite him having a big weight, he is classy, improving, and lightly raced (similar to Al Ferof). He has been outpaced on both previous runs here, but with bad ground his forte, he will be my leading selection. Nicholls also has Unioniste, but he's a four year old against seasoned, hardy handicappers, and despite the gamble, I'll also give him a swerve. One I'll give you at a big price is Golden Chieftain. He was very impressive at Worcester on his penultimate start, before flopping in the Badger Ales Trophy. He didn't jump very well, but the track wouldn't suit him really (Despite a win there in the past, it was only a three runner race). He has been dropped four pounds, stays well, and has a nice weight of ten stone two. 20/1 could be decent each way value. Nice to see the underused Dave Crosse getting a big Saturday ride.

The International Hurdle at 3.05 is historically a useful trial for the Champion Hurdle in March. It's a three horse race in every way but the figures, between Zarkandar, Grandouet and reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby. None of them have won on anything softer than good to soft. As much as I love him, I can't see Grandouet grinding it out in a slog, although he did win this last year. Rock On Ruby, for me anyway, is better in bigger fields, and won a slightly confusing Champion Hurdle. I have to go with Zarkandar though, who was game as a pebble when defeating stablemate Prospect Wells giving him 17lbs last time. He is tactically versatile, and stays well. He should have been closer in the Champion, when the leaders stayed there off a muddling gallop, and he found himself pretty much last turning in, before flying home for a close fifth. I think he'll reverse that form with a 4lb weight pull this time.

The Relkeel Hurdle at 3.40 is not a betting race at all with only three runners, but it's all about Oscar Whisky, who needs more than two, but doesn't stay three miles. Two miles four around here is ideal, and last years winner will hopefully be able to dictate from the front and win again. He needs a 'Ryanair Hurdle'!!

At Doncaster, the 2.10, a handicap chase over two miles and three furlongs, I am sweet on the chance of Easter Meteor, who ran a belter behind Nadiya De La Vega at Cheltenham last time. He has had a 56 day break since, and only been put up four pounds, dropped in grade for a yard among the winners in Emma Lavelle. 

The Summit Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 at 2.45 is a great race. Both Sametegal, who was impressive at Wetherby, and Kashmir Peak is well regarded and won readily at Market Rasen, should go well. Vasco Du Ronceray ran well at Cheltenham behind Far West last time and sets the standard. You can't discount Counsel or Mashaari either, who won a 2m2f handicap at York on the flat in October when with John Gosden, has since changed hands for a hefty fee and is in the care of Brian Ellison. I will see how much rain there is before selecting one.

Finally, the 0-150 handicap chase over three miles looks tricky, but I may have found some value. Corkage is a Doncaster specialist, and is always better with a run under his belt. He has only had eight chase starts, winning two of them, and with the Reveley yard in form, may go well at around the 20/1 mark.

I hope you have enjoyed my preview, and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Will

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