The 2012 running of the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury is as ever, classy but very competitive. With so many different angles, I am going to try and answer the questions that matter for this particular contest.
Can a former winner do it again?: It is always very tough for horses to come back and win big field handicaps such as this again, with only Denman in recent times being able to do it. We have two former winners this time, Carruthers and Diamond Harry. The former, last years victor, has been out of form, but does perform best at this time of year and also here at Newbury, he could run into a place. Diamond Harry has been in decline since his victory in this contest in 2010 off a 13lb higher mark.
What about the RSA Chase form?: Bobs Worth is a worthy favourite for this race after his win in the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival in March. You have to have class to win this, Denman, Madison Du Berlais, One Man, Teeton Mill, Arkle etc. Bobs Worth is about the only one you could see competing to a good standard in the Gold Cup in March. He is also unbeaten going left handed and the ground is not an issue. First Lieutenant got beaten two and a half lengths on level weights in the RSA, and this time gets a pound from that rival. He ran really well at Down Royal, but I think he will struggle to turn that form around.
Can Paul Nicholls win it?: The enigmatic Tidal Bay is the chief hope from Ditcheat, and despite top weight, seems to be in great form with himself of late. He does however have to give 6lbs to Bobs Worth, who is four years his junior. Harry The Viking isn't without a chance as he is on a flat track which suits him, and he will be staying on when others are tiring.
What about the other well fancied runners?: Hold On Julio ran a blinder at Cheltenham, and I think the style of the race; a strong pace so he can weave his passage through runners in the final circuit, will suit him. The Package was an impressive winner of the Badger Ales Trophy lt time, and will be trying to score under a Timmy Murphy special, creeping from the back to be produced between the last two. He could figure but this mark may be a bit high. Frisco Depot for me has a big chance. He was quite keen at Ascot last time, but was tanking when falling after becoming a bit unsighted at three out. With a low weight (10st 1), he must be involved if he completes. Alfie Spinner is one I like for The Welsh National, but I think he may struggle tomorrow. Magnanimity had his heart broken in the 2011 RSA Chase, and since then has been disappointing.
What about lively outsiders?: It is great to see an Irish National winner running in the shape of Lion Na Bearnai, but he is very high in the weights now, the same as Roberto Goldback. I think both Teaforthree, the winner of the four mile chase at the Cheltenham Festival and the mount of Tony McCoy, and Fruity O'Rooney, who improved a lot last year with a close second at the Festival the highlight, have good each way shouts. They both shaped well up to a point at the Open Meeting last time in their respective races before fading. Saint Are is interesting only because Dougie Costello has chosen to ride him as opposed to Countrywide Flame at Newcastle. Ikorodu Road could run a monster race at a big price as he has great form here.
ADVISED: 2pts WIN Bobs Worth,
2pts E/W Frisco Depot
1pt E/W Teaforthree + Fruity O'Rooney
Good Luck
Will
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