The Oaks- Horse by Horse Guide 8-14

Now time to preview the bottom half of the field for Friday's classic on those testing downs at Epsom.
NAYARRA:  Nayarra is a filly who I think is going to be campaigned in these sort of races for the rest of the season, without ever going to be quite good enough to seriously figure in one. She has won a Group 1 in Italy, but was midfield in the Guineas, given a 8 length beating by Coquet at Goodwood last week and before those, got beat by Esentepe, which is plainly not good enough to figure here, despite her trainer having his first Classic winner last week.
SHIROCCO STAR: Shirocco Star went down in plenty of notebooks after a promising debut second at Nottingham, before breaking her maiden tag by winning at Newbury. She reappeared with a solid short head defeat at that track again, beating 1000 Guineas runner up Starscope into third. The biggest problem for me is the trip, I personally don't think she'll stay the mile and a half, but I might be wrong, and if I am, she could easily outrun her odds.
THE FUGUE: The Fugue is a filly that John Gosden has always said would improve when she went up in trip. She won her maiden at Newmarket well last back-end, before being unlucky in running in the Guineas, being struck into finishing 4th with a nasty cut to her leg. Then she was impressive only 10 days later when we saw her win the Musidora over 2 furlongs further at York. Again, she is up another 2 furlongs here, seems very well balanced and for connections who are very reliable in big races, must go very close here. To add to that, she is top rated too.
TOPTEMPO: Toptempo is the only maiden in the field, after failing to finish in the first 2 in all her three starts, two in maidens and one in listed company. She has way too much on her plate here.
TWIRL: Twirl is another candidate for a front runner in this contest, but on all known form to date, doesn't have enough to figure here. She has been beaten in Listed and Group company, and being easily desposed of by The Fugue at York last time. She may run well up to a point but I think eventually, she will find this too hot to handle.
VOW: Vow is a filly that has shown plenty in her two wins to date to suggest a prominent place in the market here. She won from a seemingly impossible position at Newbury on her debut, following up in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield last time, beating Colima comfortably despite showing green-ness. That would certainly concern any backers of Vow as showing any signs of being un-genuine going to Epsom, might find her out. The trainers record is remarkable, 2 from 2 in Epsom classics including Dancing Rain last year. She has claims, but plenty of small issues so I'll let her run and if she wins, she wins.
WAS: She was dissapointing last time, and is another contender for a front runner out of the Ballydoyle sextet. When she was bought, she was the most expensive yearling purchased in Europe, so the idea of running at this level was maybe anticipated from an early point. Seamie Heffernan is one of the best tacticians around for me, so could run a big race, but it's not to easy to be confident on it.

OVERALL:    A really competitive renewal which has a lot of different angles and potential viewpoints to it. I want to be against both Maybe and Vow at the prices, both with doubts that might outweigh the positives come the day. I think The Fugue is the most likely winner, and Kissed if she ran, would be very closely matched with her. At bigger prices, Colima is a strong each way selection for connections who won this with Look Here in the past at big odds. Betterbetterbetter is another I like at a huge price for a small each way bet if running from the front.

ADVISED:     2pt WIN The Fugue
                     2pts E/W Kissed and Colima
                     1pt E/W Betterbetterbetter

Good Luck and enjoy the race
Will
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