This year's 2000 Guineas as ever kicks off the British classics, and as ever, is very well contested. There are many angles to go on to find the winner, French raiders, the best, and mostly highly tried 2 year olds, potential superstars and the big question about favourite Camelot.
CAMELOT- YES OR NO?: For me, even more so at the prices, it is a no. He is obviously exciting and the way he won the Racing Post Trophy was very good, but afterwards, connections were very certain on this race and then the Derby. But since that sunny day on Town Moor, his price has fluctuated to all odds since, with connections becoming unsure about the ground and various other factors since. That worries me despite the Coolmore insiders at Ladbrokes being shortest on him all the way through. I think he will probably find the big field quite daunting and the dip tricky. Saying this, if he can keep up with the frenetic early gallop, still travelling, he might be worth an in-running play. I would prefer to be looking elsewhere today.
WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER MARKET CHALLENGERS?:
Well, we'll start off with the home party and Trumpet Major. He was impressive in the Craven and seemed to handle the dip really well, scooting clear of a suspect field with the minimum of fuss. I think the stands side draws today will be important and he is right against the rail in 18. He has to have an outstanding each way chance at about 9/1.
Next in home colours is Top Offer. He is the most unknown of any, but from the signals that Roger Charlton has been sending out, he may suprise a few. I would worry that he hasn't had a run this year, despite having an engagement in the Greenham (pulled out due to the soft ground), and may be a bit green here on only his second racecourse appearance. I would wait for another day.
Now to the French contingent, where I am very sweet on Abtaal. He beat French Fifteen very comfortable on softened ground at Saint-Cloud last year, even though this was turned around in the Prix Djebel at Deauville last time, with a neck in it at the line, and a lot quieter ride on Abtaal that day, confirmed by trainer Jean-Claude Rouget saying he was "fat that day and will improve a lot from it". He has bad-boy Soumillon aboard too. The only disadvantage is the draw in 2, I am hoping they bunch in the middle of the track and with prominent tactics, should be bang there. I can't see Hermival beating either of those from the Djebel and is too short for me.
The other we should mention in this category is the Coolmore super-sub Power, who in a virtually blemish free two year old campaign, ending with a good second in the Dewhurst here where he wasn't great through the dip, losing important ground, but must go well here if he has trained on.
ANY FROM THE OUTSIDERS?:
There are a couple I would love to see run well include Red Duke, who is massively overpriced due to his connections I think, and a slightly disappointing run on his only visit to the Rowley Mile in the Dewhurst, despite that 80/1 is huge. Casper Netscher is the other I would love to see run well for connections, and has the form to figure, but a mile on softened ground is a big worry. I think Bronterre, who was behind Casper in the Greenham last time, is the one to take at big odds. He ran far too free in that Newbury race, but with less bold tactics, Jamie Spencer aboard and Richard Hannon saying he has been "Flying at home since the Greenham", 33/1 could be a little bit silly.
Whatever happens it'll be a great renewal. Good Luck with your views and bets
Will
ADVISED: Trumpet Major 2pts E/W
Abtaal 3pts WIN
Bronterre 1pt E/W
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