ASTROLOGY: Astrology was visually very impressive when easily beating a small and relatively weak field in the Dee Stakes at Chester on bottomless ground. He has clearly trained on, as he was beat by Rockinante at 2, which was not Richard Hannon's strongest 2 year old last year. He also improved on the ground I think, which would be a worry here, despite breaking his maiden on good ground, I'm just not convinced Good to Firm would particularly suit. I also expect him to lead at a pretty moderate gallop, similar to Chester, and try and use his tactical speed in the final 3 furlongs. I think he is a bit short as an each way option here, but could well get a place.
BONFIRE: Bonfire is the runner most likely to suprise the Ballydoyle camp. He was unlucky in Saint-Cloud as a 2 year old after easily winning his maiden at Salisbury. He was also impressive in a different way at York in the Dante, a good trial for this, when always holding Ektihaam up the straight, for not much pressure from Jimmy Fortune. He has his quirks, when being taken to the stables in his horsebox, but he was well behaved once he got there, and on the way to the start. The fear is the funfair and noise from the grandstands he has to run past going to the start could spark something in his childish side, which would seriously harm his chance. If he doesn't, he has a serious chance of beating Camelot.
CAMELOT: Camelot, the unbeaten Aidan O'Brien trained colt who is the focus of the race in whatever way you look at it. Layers are trying to find a way to beat him, maybe the trip, unraced beyond a mile, even though pedigree suggests he will most certainly stay. Maybe the tactics might catch him out, if he was given too much to do, which nearly happened in the Guineas. The jockeys' inexperience on the track, Joseph O'Brien has only ever had 3 rides before this meeting at Epsom. All of these arguments are potentially valid, but the reputation he has had from an early stage, and the way he won at Newmarket, suggest he could be very, very special. On the other hand, I wouldn't be backing him at 4/6 or 8/13, but would love to see him win well and then go to Doncaster for the Triple Crown bid.
CAVALEIRO: Cavaleiro has been talked about more than your average 66/1 Derby outsider as Hayley Turner is riding him, becoming only the second women ever to ride in this Classic. To me though, that shouldn't be such a story, for a long while, Hayley has proved she is very, very capable of riding winners at big meetings, a dual Group 1 winning jockey herself. In 2008, she rode 100 winners in a calendar year, and this year already she has 48. Back to the horse, he is by Sir Percy, a Derby winner trained by his trainer Marcus Tregoning, so he'll know every little detail about this horse well. His form though lacks a bit, a 7 length beating by Main Sequence last time leaves him well behind, is lowest rated of these, and it took him 4 runs to break his maiden. It would be a suprise if he was even placed for me.
MAIN SEQUENCE: Main Sequence is an unbeaten colt trained by David Lanigan, who as regular readers will know, I admire greatly, especially with his 3 year olds. He has steadily improved, winning a maiden, nursery, handicap and then last time, The Derby Trial at Lingfield, again showing good acceleration and flashing his tail, a trait which he has always shown, beating Shantaram, a good maiden for John Gosden, by just less than a length. I think he is a good each way bet here.
MICKDAAM: Mickdaam won the Chester Vase last time, clinging on from the fast finishing Model Pupil, on awful ground. Trials that week at Chester have been hard to trust due to the extreme going, which is completely different now. The one race he has run on Good To Firm was 11th of 16 in a maiden, which would be a concern, as well as his overall class level, which I think is a little bit short of what is needed. Despite this, it's great for Hanagan and Fahey to have their first runner in this as they, more than most, deserve to have a good one.
MINIMISE RISK: Minimise Risk was nowhere near Mickdaam at Chester, which leaves him miles behind. He might try and force the pace, and was a big money buy, similar to Was yesterday. Realistically, he can't win this and will struggle.
RUGGED CROSS: Rugged Cross is one of a few doubtful stayers, and his trainer hadn't planned to run in this, but the owner Thomas Barr has convinced him to have a go. I was at Newmarket last time, and he is quite small, but does have a good temprement, which will help in the preliminaries. I think he won't stay and will struggle to reverse the form with Thought Worthy.
THOUGHT WORTHY: Thought Worthy has always been at the top of John Gosdens' list of potential runners in this race, and this is his only runner. He ran well at Sandown, when the winner came down the stands side where he couldn't be seen by the others. He then beat Rugged Cross, Noble Mission and Farhaan in a good finish at Nemarket, where he led, then lost ground and the lead in the dip, before finishing well to get back up close home. His brother Lucarno won a St Legar so he is bound to stay, and if he copes with the track, will run well.
OVERALL: I think it appears Camelots' race to lose, with the track the only possible major worry to his chances. The specails on distance could be the way to play. I think Main Sequence is a good each way play at the current price of 8 to 10/1. Also, a small each way on Thought Worthy would be another idea at around 16/1 providing he copes with the track.
Good Luck and enjoy the race
Will
or @willbowler2k12 on Twitter
ADVISED: Camelot to win by 2-3.75 lengths - 2pts 11/2 (Coral)
2pts E/W Main Sequence
1pt E/W Thought Worthy
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