Saturday, 5 May 2012

1000 Guineas Preview

After the awesome start to the Classics with Camelots' weaving, determined and ultimately impressive win on Saturday, it all systems go for the fillies version only 24 hours later. Lets check them out in the same format as the 2000, but hopefully with more success.
MAYBE- YES OR NO?: To be honest, I would have to say she is definitely worth favouritism after a blemish free two year old campaign, in which she won at Royal Ascot in the Chesham, a listed race, before winning a Group 3, then a Group 2, and then winning a Group 1, the Moyglare Stud Stakes on her final start. She is hard to knock, with only slight concerns about the trip, in her first try at a mile, and maybe the dip might be a problem, but she wouldn't be one I'd be against with great confidence. She has be very, very competitive, but at the prices, I'm not quite sure.
WHAT ABOUT THE MARKET CHALLENGERS?:
We'll start with Mashoora, the French lead hope, who was very taking in the way she won her comeback, under a very cheeky Christophe Soumillon, but despite that, I have my worries. She may not have stayed the mile on her only previous try at the trip, and she has only competed at Group 3 level so far. I would bravely leave her out.
Next is Moonstone Magic, who was impressive at Newbury last time and has been supplemented for this, rather than going straight to the Irish Guineas. She has definite credentials if the ground was bottomless like both her wins to date, but her running on drying ground would be a big concern, despite the yard flying and her clearly having a lot of ability. Again, I would leave her alone on the prices.
Also in this section, the two Godolphin runners. It all surrounded which one Frankie would pick in the week leading up to this, and he has selected Lyric Of Light. She won a Group 2 and a Group 1 on the Rowley Mile on her last start, after Samitar, herself a very good yardstick, got first run on her into the dip, and is obviously very talented and I would definitely take her each way at 10/1.
As for Discourse, who won with ease on the July course in a Group 3 last year, has to go well too, but at the same price as her stablemate, I would leave her for Lyric Of Light.
Diala is the final one in this section, who was a narrow second to Lyric Of Light on debut, before routing a decent maiden field on the Rowley Mile on her second start, could have claims especially for a yard that don't put runners in Classics willy-nilly, as showed with Dancing Rain last year in the Oaks. May well suprise a few as she is unexposed.
ANY OUTSIDERS TO GO WELL?:
Lightening Pearl is a doubtful runner anyway, and because there is a big doubt regarding a mixture of trip and ground, despite a good two year old campaign at 6. She may be a sprinter in time. As for lively outsiders,I think there are 3 above 25/1 I could give a chance to. The first is Laugh Out Loud, who is very unexposed and no runs on turf to date, but has shown plenty of ability and may be overpriced around 40/1. I also can make a case for Starscope, what seems to be the Gosden second string, but ran 4th in the Nell Gwyn (7f), on a day where being with the pace was vital, she was right at the back before going on close home, beaten just a length. A mile will suit better and can go well at around 33/1. And finally Sunday Times, who has a chance of minor money despite running into some of these in the past. I do feel her future lies over a mile though.
Good Luck and enjoy

ADVISED:
                  2pts WIN Maybe
                  3pts E/W Lyric Of Light
                  1pt E/W Starscope
                  0.5pt E/W Laugh Out Loud

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