After a very good and busy few days of high class action at both Kempton and Leopardstown, who conclude their Winter Festival, the racing on Saturday is more good and competitive without being high class.
The feature meeting is Newbury, who host the Challow Hurdle at 2.45. The two to focus on here are Taquin Du Seuil and Clondaw Kaempfer. The former i selected as a dark horse at the start of the season, and ran well in defeat behind My Tent Or Yours at Ascot, who we will touch on later. He then demolished a good field at Sandown upped in trip, something that always promised to bring out more in him. He has a huge chance. The big threat is Clondaw Kaempfer, a horse who has shown impressive acceleration in desperate ground on his last two starts, with a nice win last time at Haydock. He is potentially very smart, but I'll stick with Taquin Du Seuil at the relevant odds. Easter Day has a chance, and Ballybough Pat will be a better chaser, so whatever he does this year is a bonus.
The Novice chase at 1.35 looks a belter, with Bury Parade, Colour Squadron and Module all taking each other on. I really like Bury Parade as a horse, he is very tough and genuine, and is a recent purchase for Highclere and Paul Nicholls for 100,000gns. He will run very well. He does however have to give 7lbs to Module and Colour Squadron who are very good horses in their own right, a great race in prospect.
The Mandarin Handicap Chase at 2.10 looks very tricky. Pete The Feat is on a five timer, and has to figure on the shortlist, he must go well. AP McCoy rides the other Longsdon runner Rey Nacarado, who always runs well at this track, and with McCoy 4-11 for the yard, he could repeat his win in this from last year.
Another handicap, this time a hurdle at 3.15 could go the way of Bakbenscher, who is now 4-4 on heavy ground after a smooth success at Haydock recently, and comes here on a nice weight of 10st 6lbs as Any Given Day holds the weights down. Salubrious for Paul Nicholls is the danger.
My Tent Or Yours in the 3.50 is a very exciting horse and it'll great to see him out again. He should win but his price won't be value.
Doncaster:
The Novice Hurdle at 12.05 has 20 intended runners, and Red Devil Boys is the one I'm most interested in. He stumbled on the home turn here, before streaking clear for a facile victory in a bumper. This is his hurdles debut, and it won't be easy, but he looked above average that day. Oscar O'Scar is a horse to note after this as he is eligible for handicaps, and should be able to win a couple of those.
The solid option in the 2.25 has to be Corkage, a course specialist who ran very well here in a handicap chase last time, back hurdling and with his yard flying, he will run really well. Firebird Flyer is the danger after an easy Boxing Day win at Ffos Las.
The 2.55 sees Victor Dartnall have his first runner back since his yard illness with Richard's Sundance. Wherever he finishes, all concerned will just be happy to get a runner on track. As far as a winner goes, Fill The Power may be it, who ran a belter behind Wyck Hill at Wetherby, form that has been franked by the winner since. This is also his fourth chase start, so still has scope to improve.
Only one race of real note up at Kelso, if it goes ahead, and that's the 12.50, where Yurok takes on Red Rocco. I'll go for Yurok, a likeable, tough sort who won well at Wetherby last time out beating Aland Islands, himself a nice horse.
To Ireland and Leopardstown, the Istabraq Festival Hurdle at 2.00 the feature, where Hurricane Fly does look unbeatable. He is a very high class horse, a Champion hurdle winner for goodness sake, and has beaten his rivals here in the past, and on level weights, I see no reason why he won't score.
At Limerick, and a yard I follow Robert Tyner has his runners in fine form at present, and his best chances lie mainly with Oscars Business in the 3.20, a consistent and useful mare who should break her chasing duck. The other is Barnanely Beau in the 3.50, who may have a bit to find with the market principals on ratings, but loves the ground, and the yard are good with horses coming back from lay-offs.
Finally, just one from Wolverhampton, and Morna's Glory in the 5.10 for trainer Jason Ward and jockey Tony Hamilton. She has the best form in the book in a poor maiden, and if getting a position from her wide draw, should go very close.
I hope you have found this informative and useful, and any feedback can be entered in the box below or on twitter @willbowler2k12.
Good luck and Be Lucky,
Will
Friday, 28 December 2012
Thursday, 27 December 2012
Lexus & Topaz Chase Preview
In this short preview, I am going to preview both of the Grade 1 races at Leopardstown on Friday afternoon. Hope you find it informative and that it adds another dimension in your thinking before the races.
LEXUS CHASE (3.00 Leopardstown):
The Lexus Chase looks like the most useful trial for the Gold Cup this season above any of the previous four or five renewals, with Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs both figuring near the top of both markets. Flemenstar is a horse I love to pieces, and he jumps as well as any top class horse I can remember, with the exception of Kauto Star. The big question is will he stay three miles, and for me there is only one answer, yes! Three miles two around Cheltenham is a question for another time, but he is definitely the one to beat.
Sir Des Champs was well beaten by Flemenstar at Punchestown on seasonal debut, and has work to do with that rival here off the same terms. He will however have come on plenty for the run that day, and will be closer, but I don't think he will turn it around.
Hidden Cyclone is closely matched with Sir Des Champs from a one and a quarter length defeat in January. That was one of his two career defeats, 9-11 the overall record. He will stay, but may be better at two and a half miles. Although he has the lowest rating in the race and is the apple of his trainers eye, he has an each way chance.
The alternative option is to look at one of the British raiders Tidal Bay. He is a brilliantly quirky, and had the speed to win an Arkle in his younger days. Since his move to Paul Nicholls, he has a new lease of life, and his run in the Hennessy was a belter off top weight. He is 11 though and younger legs may find him out.
Of the others, First Lieutenant could run well, as he jumps and stays really well. It is also great to see Pandorama back, the 2010 winner for Noel Meade. But it has to be Flemenstar for me, with Hidden Cyclone to chase him home.
TOPAZ NOVICE CHASE (2.25 Leopardstown):
Back in Focus is a high class horse in heavy ground, and the ground is soft here, but may not as bad as he would like. He does jump well and if he gets an easy lead, he will be hard to catch.
Dedigout is a high class horse who only found the bold front runner Arvika Ligeonneire too good. The form has since been franked, and has a big chance here under the Irish Champion Davy Russell.
Of the others, I like the each way chances of both Aupcharlie and Jenari. The former is ridden by the excellent Andrew Lynch, and has been crying out for three miles. He is a huge horse, who goes well in this ground, and looks a good, solid each way play at 9/1. Jenari is the choice of Tony McCoy, and again, a step up to three miles could help too. He is a Grade 2 novice hurdle winner and could run a place at around 25/1.
I hope you enjoy what promises to be a great card, and hope you have found this useful.
Be lucky,
Will
LEXUS CHASE (3.00 Leopardstown):
The Lexus Chase looks like the most useful trial for the Gold Cup this season above any of the previous four or five renewals, with Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs both figuring near the top of both markets. Flemenstar is a horse I love to pieces, and he jumps as well as any top class horse I can remember, with the exception of Kauto Star. The big question is will he stay three miles, and for me there is only one answer, yes! Three miles two around Cheltenham is a question for another time, but he is definitely the one to beat.
Sir Des Champs was well beaten by Flemenstar at Punchestown on seasonal debut, and has work to do with that rival here off the same terms. He will however have come on plenty for the run that day, and will be closer, but I don't think he will turn it around.
Hidden Cyclone is closely matched with Sir Des Champs from a one and a quarter length defeat in January. That was one of his two career defeats, 9-11 the overall record. He will stay, but may be better at two and a half miles. Although he has the lowest rating in the race and is the apple of his trainers eye, he has an each way chance.
The alternative option is to look at one of the British raiders Tidal Bay. He is a brilliantly quirky, and had the speed to win an Arkle in his younger days. Since his move to Paul Nicholls, he has a new lease of life, and his run in the Hennessy was a belter off top weight. He is 11 though and younger legs may find him out.
Of the others, First Lieutenant could run well, as he jumps and stays really well. It is also great to see Pandorama back, the 2010 winner for Noel Meade. But it has to be Flemenstar for me, with Hidden Cyclone to chase him home.
TOPAZ NOVICE CHASE (2.25 Leopardstown):
Back in Focus is a high class horse in heavy ground, and the ground is soft here, but may not as bad as he would like. He does jump well and if he gets an easy lead, he will be hard to catch.
Dedigout is a high class horse who only found the bold front runner Arvika Ligeonneire too good. The form has since been franked, and has a big chance here under the Irish Champion Davy Russell.
Of the others, I like the each way chances of both Aupcharlie and Jenari. The former is ridden by the excellent Andrew Lynch, and has been crying out for three miles. He is a huge horse, who goes well in this ground, and looks a good, solid each way play at 9/1. Jenari is the choice of Tony McCoy, and again, a step up to three miles could help too. He is a Grade 2 novice hurdle winner and could run a place at around 25/1.
I hope you enjoy what promises to be a great card, and hope you have found this useful.
Be lucky,
Will
Monday, 24 December 2012
Boxing Day Preview 2012
Boxing Day is the usual busy day for jumps racing fans, as high class racing from Kempton takes centre stage along with sore heads and leftovers. In this preview, I will try and find some winners to add to the Christmas cheer:
The King George VI Chase - Kempton 3.10:
Where do I stand on Long Run?:
Long Run is the favourite for his second triumph in this race. He won this in 2010, en route to winning the Gold Cup in the following March. Last season, he just kept running behind a resurgent Kauto Star, and then only managed third in the Gold Cup behind the ill-fated Synchronised. On his seasonal reappearance, he was found wanting behind Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase. A lot of people have criticised Sam Waley-Cohen, but those people weren't slagging him off when he won this and the Gold Cup before, and he has been missing one major thing since, and that's a really fast pace. His victory in this two years ago was run at a blistering pace set by Nacarat, which allowed his jumping to be in a great rhythm, before outstaying the others to win by twelve lengths, ahead of Riverside Theatre. The same was the case in his Gold Cup win, this time Midnight Chase and China Rock the ones who set the race up for him. If he gets this, which is possible with the likes of Junior and The Giant Bolster in the line-up, he will win for me, as he's the strongest stayer in the race.
What can beat him?:
Cue Card is having his first go at three miles, and if this contest were run on the usual good to soft ground, I'd really fancy him. But it is soft, heavy in places as I write, and I just can't see him staying as much as I like him. Riverside Theatre has form figures of 11111 when fresh, which speaks for itself. He was beaten quite a way by Long Run two years ago, and the trip and ground combination have to put an element of doubt over his chance.
 | ||
| Bolster The Giant |
Normally, Grand Crus would be for me, after his brilliant performance on this day last year in the Feltham, but form figures of: 72126P on soft or heavy ground again put serious doubt as to his capability on the ground, and he has had a wind op since he pulled up in the Paddy Power. The Giant Bolster, named after a Cornish giant called Bolster who used to live near the cliffs of St Agnes, and used to eat people and children! There is also a Bolster Day, held on May 1st every year held very close to St Agnes. As for the equine Bolster, he has a good each way chance under Tony McCoy, even though he is better on a left handed track.
Captain Chris for me is a doubtful stayer over three miles on this ground, and would be an ideal horse for a Ryanair run on a right handed track, as he is definitely better this way round.
I'm going to select Kauto Stone as the one to fear for all. He won in good style at Down Royal last time, and if he can perform to a similar level, he will go very close. Different to Long Run, I think he needs a slower pace, which allows him to do things at his own speed, and he will certainly stay as well. Junior has plenty to find on figures, but he does stay, jump and loves testing ground and wouldn't completely suprise me if he placed at big odds here.
Christmas Hurdle - Kempton 2.35
Countrywide Flame sets the standard here after an efffortless win in the Fighting Fifth hurdle up at Newcastle, beating fellow rival Cinders And Ashes by twelve lengths. Countrywide Flame did go there race-fit after a couple of Flat runs, but regardless trounced Cinders And Ashes on very heavy ground, who was struggling from some way out. The main challenger may be Darlan, who I really like as an individual. He beat stablemate Captain Conan at Aintree after a very honourable run behind Cinders And Ashes at the Festival. The big issue is the ground, which is an unknown.
Dodging Bullets is a fascinating runner as he is very lightly raced compared to most, but is improving at a fast rate of knots. He hasn't raced on ground this bad or in this grade, and I think he will run well without winning. Raya Star is better in a big field handicap, and Get Me Out Of Here, who is top rated, again has his work cut out, although a return to two miles will be appreciated. It's also great to see 2009 Champion Hurdler Punjabi back before he embarks on novice chasing.
Overall, I think Countrywide Flame is very tough to beat, race-fit and will relish the conditions.
Any Christmas Crackers?
The undercard at Kempton may present us with a few opportunities. The opening novice hurdle at 12.50, looks a great race. New Year's Eve was a high class bumper horse making hurdles debut, but River Maigue is the one to beat for Nicky Henderson. I've been waiting for Asker to reappear as well and now starts out for Gary Moore. He goes really well on heavy ground and could place. The Feltham at 2.00 is all about Dynaste, who is the highest rated hurdler to go chasing this season, and has looked very good so far in two starts. His record right handed is ok without being outstanding, but it may well be enough.
The 3.45 looks our best oppurtunity for a Kempton winner, with Katkeau. He was in the process of running a big race at Haydock on British debut last time out, before making a serious blunder at three out, losing all momentum and was nursed home after that. He is off the same mark here and should go very well.
Fontwell brings a nice oppurtunity in the closing bumper at 3.50, with On The Move. Anthony Honeyball horses are always worth following, and this one made a very pleasing debut at Folkestone, looking the winner before tiring in the final furlong for second, that race was over two mile two furlongs. Down half a mile in trip here, she should score.
If Ffos Las goes ahead, I will be excited to see the return of Whisper in the opening novice hurdle at 12.35. It is not the easiest race to start off over hurdles, but he is very exciting. He is also entered at Towcester, but this is his first preference. I also think Riptide in the 2.20 has a big each way chance. He has caught the eye recently staying on late in the day, but looks well handicapped and drops in class. Course form is a must at Ffos Las too, and he has a win at this venue too.
Sedgefield represents a good chance for Fourjacks, who was just a bit outclassed last time in a hot race at Haydock behind Gevrey Chambertin. He loves a slog, as proved when sauntering clear at Hexham on his penultimate start, and must go well.
Over at Towcester, I'm looking forward to seeing Badgers Cove try his hand at chasing in the Beginners Chase at 3.05. He shaped with plenty of his old ability on his return from a big lay-off at Chepstow, but has really good course form.
Wincanton's feature race is the Pertemps Qualifier at 2.15, with 21 runners going to post. Connectivity is obviously going to attract interest after a massive lay-off, but it is hard to look away from both Holywell and Goulanes, with the former only finding Trustan Times too good last time. As for Goulanes, he won at Cheltenham last time in similar conditions, and must go well under a very handy 10lb claimer in Francis Hayes.
The big race at Wetherby is the Rowland Meyrick Chase, and for me it's between Cape Tribulation and Going Wrong. Cape Tribultion is well handicapped and lightly raced over fences, and has form here. His last run can be forgiven as it was at a level that was above him. Going Wrong definitely needed his reappearance at Haydock, getting a considerate ride, and won second time up last year. He's never tried three miles before, but his sire Bob Backs progeny; which include the likes of Bob's Worth and Thisthatandtother, suggest it shouldn't be a problem.
I hope you have enjoyed my preview, and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12, or fill in the box below.
Have a very Merry Christmas and a fruitful New Year,
Will
Thursday, 20 December 2012
21st December Wolverhampton Preview
Wolverhampton stage a twilight meeting on Friday, with eight races and eighty one horses competing around the Polytrack. For anyone who hasn't been, the circuit is about a mile round, left handed and quite a fast track, with the Polytrack equitting when Standard to Good to Firm ground on the turf.
3.15 - 2yo Class 5 Maiden, 8 runners 7f 32y:
The one that I'm immediately drawn to here is Barbsiz, who was fourth over C&D just over three weeks ago. Firstly, he has track form, which is important, secondly he has Tom Eaves on, a very useful jockey, and the second from that race, Sofi's Spirit, has since won three on the bounce. Overrider has a official rating of 72, and really should probably win this. He has a step up to seven furlongs to face, but sets the standard, and with his jockey Robert Winston in flying form, must go very close indeed. The most interesting newcomer is Excellent Puck from the Jamie Osborne yard, who is a half brother to six winners and represents an in-form yard. Multilicious is one for handicaps I feel and will come up short in this.
3.50 - 2yo Class 6 Fillies Maiden, 7 runners 5f 216y:
Similar to our opening race, we have a horse with a high handicap mark, in the shape of Midnight Flower. She has been unlucky to be chinned on the post over course and distance on her penultimate start, before not quite staying the trip out here last time. Sherinn has clearly got a few issues, as the hood is applied here on her third start, and she was disappointing last time. Saying that, her yard do have a 37% strike rate at this venue. Spymistress is interesting in that her price rose a lot at the sales, but the pedigree isn't that appealing. I like Clock Opera, who is from an in form yard in Elaine Burke. Last time out she was 5th behind Body and Soul at Ripon. The interesting stat is that 8 winners have won out of that eleven runner race, with two rated in the nineties and an current average rating of 76. She was an eye-catcher in that race, but hasn't run since. Whether she will need this, as she gets a mark afterwards who knows, but she could be value.
4.20 - 0-52 Class 6 Handicap Div 1, 11 runners 5f 20y:
Monumental Man is the obvious one after a successful drop to five furlongs last time out at Lingfield, making all under the same rider David Probert. The concern is he could get taken on for the lead this time, but he doesn't have to lead which is a plus. He's the one to beat. Rose Garnet was another last time out winner when making all after a big gamble at Kempton on British debut for Tony Carroll. The yard are not in very good form and I will oppose this one. A couple at each way prices that could go well are Rightcar and Divertimenti. The former is a dual winner here and is 3lbs below his last winning mark. He is a slow starter, and needs a fast pace to run off. He is also ridden by Jamie Spencer for the first time, and riding for the stable for the first time as well. As for Divertimenti, he hasn't won on the All Weather since January 2009, off a mark of 65. He now races off 44 and still retains a bit of ability. He can race from the front or the back, so depending on pace, jockey Mark Coumbe can make his mind up early on.
4.50 - 0-52 Class 6 Handicap Div 2, 11 runners 5f 20y:
It's fair to say that this division looks the weaker of the two. Chateau Lola finished ahead of Deveze last time at Lingfield staying on well, and has been dropped 2lbs as well. She has a good draw in 5 and Joe Fanning aboard who won on her the last time they teamed up. In a race I find very hard to make a case for a lot of the runners, Cri Na Mara might be the answer. She ran ok here last time behind a well handicapped Passionada, and had her only triumph on the second run after a break. Andrea Atzeni is a good pilot around this course and with a good draw in 2, she should go well.
5.20 - 0-85 Class 4 Nursery, 6 runners, 7f 32y:
This is the feature contest out of the eight race card. Hipster sets the standard here for Ralph Beckett and Jamie Spencer. He ran behind a very good Group3 winning All Weather horse called Glass Office on his only previous start on a synthetic surface. Staffhoss is a danger after a maiden win at Lingfield recently. What I would say is it has taken a little while for the penny to drop when he comes under pressure in both his starts to date, but he is learning. Lilac Lace has to prove his effectiveness on Polytrack after a win in a very poor Southwell maiden last time. Pippy and Be On The Bell are both course and distance winners, but I'll stick with Hipster, who should be that little bit too good.
5.50 - 0-50 Class 7 Handicap, 13 runners, 1m 141y:
Big Sylv was an easy winner here last week on her first start in Class 7 company, and should go very well in a repeat bid. She is the only three year old in the race too, and at least looks to be improving against a lot of poor, out of form horses. Just Five is my alternative. John Weymes has a 17% strike rate here with older horses, and +£62 to a level stake. Likewise, rider Luke Morris has a 15% strike rate riding the trainers older horses, and a healthy profit. This horse is a bit quirky, but his last two wins have both been here at Wolverhampton, and blinkers replace a visor. Violet Jordan has four runners, all in the same colours, with just the different coloured caps to distinguish them.
6.20 - 0-65 Class 6 3yo Handicap, 13 runners, 1m1f 103y:
This looks a very competitive event indeed, with lots of in-form horses. Neige D'Antan has been very consistent, either winning or finishing in the frame on his last nine starts. With the plum draw in 1, he must run well again as he is tactically versatile. Graylyn Valentino was arguably an unlucky loser last time at Lingfield, after missing the break and racing wide throughout only getting beat a short head. The winner Idol Deputy and the fourth Resplendant Alpha have won since, and Joe Fanning replaces Semira Pashai. Alezanna robbed a maiden from the front here last time, and am a little unsure how good that form is. A couple I could see figure are Ferryview Place and Her Nibbs. The former is on debut for Ian Williams, a yard which does very well with horses similar to this. He is also in a visor for the first time. Her Nibbs is interesting on handicap debut for a yard who I think are just about to hit form in Micky Hammond. A mark of 61 does not look overharsh by any means and on handicap debut, could go well.
6.50 - 0-65 Class 6 Handicap, 12 runners, 1m4f 50y:
A tricky twelve furlong handicap closes the card, and Resplendant Alpha has to be high up the list after a win at Lingfield in selling company on Wednesday. A 6lb penalty will make life tougher and he has never won at Wolverhampton, but he should still figure. McBirney is starting to look well handicapped, but I don't think he has many gears and if it turned into a sprint, that would be a worry. Icy Quiet is interesting on it's first start for David O'Meara after leaving the Toby Coles yard, but hasn't shown much to date. I think both Wordiness and El Bravo can go well here, especially Wordiness who should have finished very close to Resplendant Alpha before meeting trouble at Lingfield last time. John Fahy rides today and can go well. El Bravo has been hinting at a big run, but is a little one paced.
Thanks for reading and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Will
3.15 - 2yo Class 5 Maiden, 8 runners 7f 32y:
The one that I'm immediately drawn to here is Barbsiz, who was fourth over C&D just over three weeks ago. Firstly, he has track form, which is important, secondly he has Tom Eaves on, a very useful jockey, and the second from that race, Sofi's Spirit, has since won three on the bounce. Overrider has a official rating of 72, and really should probably win this. He has a step up to seven furlongs to face, but sets the standard, and with his jockey Robert Winston in flying form, must go very close indeed. The most interesting newcomer is Excellent Puck from the Jamie Osborne yard, who is a half brother to six winners and represents an in-form yard. Multilicious is one for handicaps I feel and will come up short in this.
3.50 - 2yo Class 6 Fillies Maiden, 7 runners 5f 216y:
Similar to our opening race, we have a horse with a high handicap mark, in the shape of Midnight Flower. She has been unlucky to be chinned on the post over course and distance on her penultimate start, before not quite staying the trip out here last time. Sherinn has clearly got a few issues, as the hood is applied here on her third start, and she was disappointing last time. Saying that, her yard do have a 37% strike rate at this venue. Spymistress is interesting in that her price rose a lot at the sales, but the pedigree isn't that appealing. I like Clock Opera, who is from an in form yard in Elaine Burke. Last time out she was 5th behind Body and Soul at Ripon. The interesting stat is that 8 winners have won out of that eleven runner race, with two rated in the nineties and an current average rating of 76. She was an eye-catcher in that race, but hasn't run since. Whether she will need this, as she gets a mark afterwards who knows, but she could be value.
4.20 - 0-52 Class 6 Handicap Div 1, 11 runners 5f 20y:
Monumental Man is the obvious one after a successful drop to five furlongs last time out at Lingfield, making all under the same rider David Probert. The concern is he could get taken on for the lead this time, but he doesn't have to lead which is a plus. He's the one to beat. Rose Garnet was another last time out winner when making all after a big gamble at Kempton on British debut for Tony Carroll. The yard are not in very good form and I will oppose this one. A couple at each way prices that could go well are Rightcar and Divertimenti. The former is a dual winner here and is 3lbs below his last winning mark. He is a slow starter, and needs a fast pace to run off. He is also ridden by Jamie Spencer for the first time, and riding for the stable for the first time as well. As for Divertimenti, he hasn't won on the All Weather since January 2009, off a mark of 65. He now races off 44 and still retains a bit of ability. He can race from the front or the back, so depending on pace, jockey Mark Coumbe can make his mind up early on.
4.50 - 0-52 Class 6 Handicap Div 2, 11 runners 5f 20y:
It's fair to say that this division looks the weaker of the two. Chateau Lola finished ahead of Deveze last time at Lingfield staying on well, and has been dropped 2lbs as well. She has a good draw in 5 and Joe Fanning aboard who won on her the last time they teamed up. In a race I find very hard to make a case for a lot of the runners, Cri Na Mara might be the answer. She ran ok here last time behind a well handicapped Passionada, and had her only triumph on the second run after a break. Andrea Atzeni is a good pilot around this course and with a good draw in 2, she should go well.
5.20 - 0-85 Class 4 Nursery, 6 runners, 7f 32y:
This is the feature contest out of the eight race card. Hipster sets the standard here for Ralph Beckett and Jamie Spencer. He ran behind a very good Group3 winning All Weather horse called Glass Office on his only previous start on a synthetic surface. Staffhoss is a danger after a maiden win at Lingfield recently. What I would say is it has taken a little while for the penny to drop when he comes under pressure in both his starts to date, but he is learning. Lilac Lace has to prove his effectiveness on Polytrack after a win in a very poor Southwell maiden last time. Pippy and Be On The Bell are both course and distance winners, but I'll stick with Hipster, who should be that little bit too good.
5.50 - 0-50 Class 7 Handicap, 13 runners, 1m 141y:
Big Sylv was an easy winner here last week on her first start in Class 7 company, and should go very well in a repeat bid. She is the only three year old in the race too, and at least looks to be improving against a lot of poor, out of form horses. Just Five is my alternative. John Weymes has a 17% strike rate here with older horses, and +£62 to a level stake. Likewise, rider Luke Morris has a 15% strike rate riding the trainers older horses, and a healthy profit. This horse is a bit quirky, but his last two wins have both been here at Wolverhampton, and blinkers replace a visor. Violet Jordan has four runners, all in the same colours, with just the different coloured caps to distinguish them.
6.20 - 0-65 Class 6 3yo Handicap, 13 runners, 1m1f 103y:
This looks a very competitive event indeed, with lots of in-form horses. Neige D'Antan has been very consistent, either winning or finishing in the frame on his last nine starts. With the plum draw in 1, he must run well again as he is tactically versatile. Graylyn Valentino was arguably an unlucky loser last time at Lingfield, after missing the break and racing wide throughout only getting beat a short head. The winner Idol Deputy and the fourth Resplendant Alpha have won since, and Joe Fanning replaces Semira Pashai. Alezanna robbed a maiden from the front here last time, and am a little unsure how good that form is. A couple I could see figure are Ferryview Place and Her Nibbs. The former is on debut for Ian Williams, a yard which does very well with horses similar to this. He is also in a visor for the first time. Her Nibbs is interesting on handicap debut for a yard who I think are just about to hit form in Micky Hammond. A mark of 61 does not look overharsh by any means and on handicap debut, could go well.
6.50 - 0-65 Class 6 Handicap, 12 runners, 1m4f 50y:
A tricky twelve furlong handicap closes the card, and Resplendant Alpha has to be high up the list after a win at Lingfield in selling company on Wednesday. A 6lb penalty will make life tougher and he has never won at Wolverhampton, but he should still figure. McBirney is starting to look well handicapped, but I don't think he has many gears and if it turned into a sprint, that would be a worry. Icy Quiet is interesting on it's first start for David O'Meara after leaving the Toby Coles yard, but hasn't shown much to date. I think both Wordiness and El Bravo can go well here, especially Wordiness who should have finished very close to Resplendant Alpha before meeting trouble at Lingfield last time. John Fahy rides today and can go well. El Bravo has been hinting at a big run, but is a little one paced.
Thanks for reading and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Will
Monday, 17 December 2012
Weekend Review 14th-16th December
Another fantastic weekend of racing to reflect on, starting with Bangor and Cheltenham on Friday.
We will start at Bangor, where favourite backers got off to the worst possible start as Malt Master was turned over on chase debut at 2/5. Two things I wanted to mention here, Susan Gardner had a double, a trainer who does very well indeed with limited ammunition. I was also taken by the debut of Wing Mira from the Venetia Williams yard in the bumper, who ran on well near the finish under hand riding from Sam Thomas, and despite being green, he seems to have quite a bit of ability.
As for Cheltenham, rain in the morning meant that the ground was very testing. I thought Super Duty put up a nice display of jumping to win the opener, unlike Broadbackbob, who will be much better on a faster surface. The race was overshadowed by the passing of Hildisvini, who broke a shoulder when falling at the second last. A lovely horse and a sad loss. Dark Lover was an easy victor in the two mile handicap hurdle, and still looked like a horse on the improve. The finish of the day was in the three mile one furlong handicap chase where Midlands National winner Master Overseer overhauled Quartz De Thaix in a titanic battle up the hill. Master Overseer is very tough and really sticks his head out and wants to win, which makes him great to watch when in top form.
The Cross Country was given the go-ahead at twelve o'clock, and it provided another great spectacle for racegoers as Outlaw Pete won well for Josh Halley. Josh's father John, who trained the winner is also the head vet for Aidan O'Brien. I thought Samantha Drake gave Leac An Scail a super ride, and fully deserved a place, despite running from 19lbs out of the handicap.
Yet again I was very impressed with At Fishers Cross, who is still a bit babyish and doesn't always jump that well, but must have a serious engine to win as nicely as he did at Cheltenham and at Newbury the time before over five furlongs shorter. He is still lightly raced and could develop into either a very good chaser, or a live World Hurdle contender for 2014, whichever the yard and JP McManus decide. Melodic Rendezvous rounded off the card with a win for Nick Scholfield and Jeremy Scott, a lethal combination this season registering a 21% strike rate and all of Scott's winners have been ridden by Nick.
On to Saturday, and the jumping came from Doncaster, Lingfield and Cheltenham. We begin at Lingfield, who raced on very testing ground. The card was marred by Felix De Giles taking the wrong course aboard Newton Tonic in the handicap chase, resulting in a 12 day ban. They did have a Grade 2 on the card, the RSA Trial Chase, which went the way of Court In Motion for the Emma Lavelle yard, battling on gamely from Houblon Des Obeaux. He is a lovely horse, and could perhaps develop into a Welsh National horse next year.
Doncaster hosted a good card including the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle, which went the way of Kashmir Peak, from the John Quinn yard under Dougie Costello, the same team that won this in 2011 with Royal Bonsai. He travelled best through the race and idled when he hit the front to score narrowly from Sametegal. I saw Counsel running on well late in the race for fourth, and deduced that he may be better suited by an end to end gallop. Rocky Creek made a winning chase debut for Paul Nicholls, jumping well in the main and staying on well. The finish of the day was certainly the feature handicap chase won by Court By Suprise, another Emma Lavelle winner on a day she would have a cross card treble involving a double at Doncaster. There were four in with every chance at the last, before the fast finishing Night In Milan joined the argument late on with a storming run under Jonathan England, Misstree Dancer was third and Corkage fourth ; distances a nose and two necks!! A thrilling race and a fine example of National Hunt racing.
For me the star of the day was Dominic Elsworth, who was in inspired form. He rode a double, the first of which was on Wiesentraum for Lucy Wadham, who was last down the back straight and struggling, but he remianed patient and delivered him to lead at the last, and then at his strongest to hold off Vintage Star by a neck. The second win was the opposite, making all on Easter Meteor for Emma Lavelle. He jumped really well, and Dom always had a bit up his sleeve and asserted on the extended run-in to score by four and a half lengths. A fine example to any budding jockeys of judging pace, jumping and timing.
Cheltenham had a high class card, but the ground was very testing. Far West won again in an uncompetitive opener for Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls. Our Father was beaten at odds on by Highland Lodge, maybe because Timmy Murphy was unavailable to ride due to injury and he seems to get the best out of him, having ridden him on every start to date. Shooters Wood was very game in winning the handicap chase, rallying to overtake His Excellency close home. Coneygree was impressive in the three mile novice hurdle, dictating from the front and staying on strongly up the hill to score by six lengths. He is very likeable, but my worry for him at The Festival would be him getting taken on for the lead, which he hasn't experienced early in a race before.
There is nothing like a good old-fashioned gamble in a Saturday handicap, and Paul Nicholls executed it perfectly with Unioniste, under a great ride by Harry Derham. Scraping in as first reserve on Friday, he jumped very well and stayed on well. It wasn't all good for Nicholls though as Cristal Bonus sustained a broken pelvis with a circuit to go and had to be put down. The International Hurdle featured a clash between Zarkandar, Grandouet and reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby. They finished in that order, and I thought that Grandouet ran the best, after not running for a year, on ground that was too soft and giving Zarkandar 4lbs, he would be very close to him come March. Zarkandar is a very good horse, but I'm not sure how well the Old Course suits him, which he will run on in the Champion in March. Saying that though, like Rock On Ruby who ran well to a point to Saturday, they are tactically versatile. Oscar Whisky won the Relkeel Hurdle for a second successive year at a relative hack canter by nineteen lengths.
Sunday bought us racing from Hereford, Musselburgh and Carlisle. It was the last meeting at Hereford, for the time being anyway, and it was sad to see it go. I was there last month for some work experience and you couldn't go to a friendlier racecourse, the viewing is brilliant with a good atmosphere as well. Let's hope it will be back soon. Danny Cook was the star at Musselburgh riding a four timer, with the biggest margin being a length and a quarter. His ride on Dusky Bob was exquisite, never say die and got up close home to score by a neck. Carlisle also went for a seven race card, with Corrin Wood and Morning Royalty both impressive winners of the novice hurdles.
The weekend dark horse to follow: Atriptomilan (Jonjo O'Neill) - Finished fifth in the 2m6f Novice hurdle at Hereford on Sunday. This son of Milan was making his rules debut after a point win in Ireland in April. He was very green, and as a four year old running against older and more experienced horses, definitely showed himself more than capable of winning a race when he matures a bit more.
Hope you've enjoyed my review of the weekend, and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Will
We will start at Bangor, where favourite backers got off to the worst possible start as Malt Master was turned over on chase debut at 2/5. Two things I wanted to mention here, Susan Gardner had a double, a trainer who does very well indeed with limited ammunition. I was also taken by the debut of Wing Mira from the Venetia Williams yard in the bumper, who ran on well near the finish under hand riding from Sam Thomas, and despite being green, he seems to have quite a bit of ability.
As for Cheltenham, rain in the morning meant that the ground was very testing. I thought Super Duty put up a nice display of jumping to win the opener, unlike Broadbackbob, who will be much better on a faster surface. The race was overshadowed by the passing of Hildisvini, who broke a shoulder when falling at the second last. A lovely horse and a sad loss. Dark Lover was an easy victor in the two mile handicap hurdle, and still looked like a horse on the improve. The finish of the day was in the three mile one furlong handicap chase where Midlands National winner Master Overseer overhauled Quartz De Thaix in a titanic battle up the hill. Master Overseer is very tough and really sticks his head out and wants to win, which makes him great to watch when in top form.
The Cross Country was given the go-ahead at twelve o'clock, and it provided another great spectacle for racegoers as Outlaw Pete won well for Josh Halley. Josh's father John, who trained the winner is also the head vet for Aidan O'Brien. I thought Samantha Drake gave Leac An Scail a super ride, and fully deserved a place, despite running from 19lbs out of the handicap.
Yet again I was very impressed with At Fishers Cross, who is still a bit babyish and doesn't always jump that well, but must have a serious engine to win as nicely as he did at Cheltenham and at Newbury the time before over five furlongs shorter. He is still lightly raced and could develop into either a very good chaser, or a live World Hurdle contender for 2014, whichever the yard and JP McManus decide. Melodic Rendezvous rounded off the card with a win for Nick Scholfield and Jeremy Scott, a lethal combination this season registering a 21% strike rate and all of Scott's winners have been ridden by Nick.
On to Saturday, and the jumping came from Doncaster, Lingfield and Cheltenham. We begin at Lingfield, who raced on very testing ground. The card was marred by Felix De Giles taking the wrong course aboard Newton Tonic in the handicap chase, resulting in a 12 day ban. They did have a Grade 2 on the card, the RSA Trial Chase, which went the way of Court In Motion for the Emma Lavelle yard, battling on gamely from Houblon Des Obeaux. He is a lovely horse, and could perhaps develop into a Welsh National horse next year.
Doncaster hosted a good card including the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle, which went the way of Kashmir Peak, from the John Quinn yard under Dougie Costello, the same team that won this in 2011 with Royal Bonsai. He travelled best through the race and idled when he hit the front to score narrowly from Sametegal. I saw Counsel running on well late in the race for fourth, and deduced that he may be better suited by an end to end gallop. Rocky Creek made a winning chase debut for Paul Nicholls, jumping well in the main and staying on well. The finish of the day was certainly the feature handicap chase won by Court By Suprise, another Emma Lavelle winner on a day she would have a cross card treble involving a double at Doncaster. There were four in with every chance at the last, before the fast finishing Night In Milan joined the argument late on with a storming run under Jonathan England, Misstree Dancer was third and Corkage fourth ; distances a nose and two necks!! A thrilling race and a fine example of National Hunt racing.
For me the star of the day was Dominic Elsworth, who was in inspired form. He rode a double, the first of which was on Wiesentraum for Lucy Wadham, who was last down the back straight and struggling, but he remianed patient and delivered him to lead at the last, and then at his strongest to hold off Vintage Star by a neck. The second win was the opposite, making all on Easter Meteor for Emma Lavelle. He jumped really well, and Dom always had a bit up his sleeve and asserted on the extended run-in to score by four and a half lengths. A fine example to any budding jockeys of judging pace, jumping and timing.
Cheltenham had a high class card, but the ground was very testing. Far West won again in an uncompetitive opener for Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls. Our Father was beaten at odds on by Highland Lodge, maybe because Timmy Murphy was unavailable to ride due to injury and he seems to get the best out of him, having ridden him on every start to date. Shooters Wood was very game in winning the handicap chase, rallying to overtake His Excellency close home. Coneygree was impressive in the three mile novice hurdle, dictating from the front and staying on strongly up the hill to score by six lengths. He is very likeable, but my worry for him at The Festival would be him getting taken on for the lead, which he hasn't experienced early in a race before.
There is nothing like a good old-fashioned gamble in a Saturday handicap, and Paul Nicholls executed it perfectly with Unioniste, under a great ride by Harry Derham. Scraping in as first reserve on Friday, he jumped very well and stayed on well. It wasn't all good for Nicholls though as Cristal Bonus sustained a broken pelvis with a circuit to go and had to be put down. The International Hurdle featured a clash between Zarkandar, Grandouet and reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby. They finished in that order, and I thought that Grandouet ran the best, after not running for a year, on ground that was too soft and giving Zarkandar 4lbs, he would be very close to him come March. Zarkandar is a very good horse, but I'm not sure how well the Old Course suits him, which he will run on in the Champion in March. Saying that though, like Rock On Ruby who ran well to a point to Saturday, they are tactically versatile. Oscar Whisky won the Relkeel Hurdle for a second successive year at a relative hack canter by nineteen lengths.
Sunday bought us racing from Hereford, Musselburgh and Carlisle. It was the last meeting at Hereford, for the time being anyway, and it was sad to see it go. I was there last month for some work experience and you couldn't go to a friendlier racecourse, the viewing is brilliant with a good atmosphere as well. Let's hope it will be back soon. Danny Cook was the star at Musselburgh riding a four timer, with the biggest margin being a length and a quarter. His ride on Dusky Bob was exquisite, never say die and got up close home to score by a neck. Carlisle also went for a seven race card, with Corrin Wood and Morning Royalty both impressive winners of the novice hurdles.
The weekend dark horse to follow: Atriptomilan (Jonjo O'Neill) - Finished fifth in the 2m6f Novice hurdle at Hereford on Sunday. This son of Milan was making his rules debut after a point win in Ireland in April. He was very green, and as a four year old running against older and more experienced horses, definitely showed himself more than capable of winning a race when he matures a bit more.
Hope you've enjoyed my review of the weekend, and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Will
Friday, 14 December 2012
15th December Preview
Saturday is another great day of jumps racing, with Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield hosting very competitive and informative cards. In this preview, I will focus mainly on Cheltenham, but mention any horses or races of interest at Doncaster. (Lingfield yet to inspect at time of writing).
CHELTENHAM:
It is pretty easy to say how the ground will ride after seeing Fridays racing at Cheltenham, and that is testing. They kick off at 12.10 with a Triumph Hurdle Trial. It is hard to get away from Far West, a winner here last time over course and distance and on very testing ground. It is important to note that the courses are different from the Open Meeting, and he has a double penalty, but is running against pretty much the same horses here, having beaten Handazan, Dovils Date and Mr Lando either here or at Chepstow. The only one he hasn't beaten before is Tidal Way, but I don't quite think he's good enough.
The three mile one furlong novice chase at 12.45 looks a very informative race again, with Our Father sure to be right at the head of the market after an easy win here last time on bad ground. He's the safest option in a race it may pay to watch as opposed to get involved.
The Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase at 1.20 over two miles is always a spectacle. I am intrigued by Garynella, a five year old making his British debut for the David Pipe yard, but he has to compete from out of the handicap. All his form though is over further as well so I'll take a watching brief. I like Shooters Wood, with Ruby Walsh going to his lowest weight in the last five seasons to 10 stone. He won here last time out over course and distance, staying on well and must go very well again. One thing to note is the booking of Tony McCoy on His Excellency for the Pipe yard.
The three mile novices hurdle at 1.55 is a cracker, and can be approached from a few different angles. I may be a little biased after putting According To Trev up as a dark-horse at the start of the season, and he has a course win to his name, but he was beaten twelve lengths by Coneygree and I fear he needs better ground than this. I can't see him beating Coneygree, though I'd like to be wrong! The interesting aspect to this race is the chasers running back over hurdles. Midnight Appeal won a novice hurdle at Hereford recently but is better known for his exploits chasing. Aerial, who has finished placed in a Paddy Power Gold Cup, and Grand National winner Mon Mome still going strong at the age of twelve. Aerial may just shade it for me, as he is highest rated of these if taking his chase mark, he should stay and tends to do well at this track.
The Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup is one of the feature races of the day at 2.30, and it is wide open. Walkon is a narrow favourite after a very good second behind Al Ferof here last month, but he is very good fresh and tailed off after seasonal debut last year. My preference is for Cristal Bonus, who was impressive last time at Down Royal. Despite him having a big weight, he is classy, improving, and lightly raced (similar to Al Ferof). He has been outpaced on both previous runs here, but with bad ground his forte, he will be my leading selection. Nicholls also has Unioniste, but he's a four year old against seasoned, hardy handicappers, and despite the gamble, I'll also give him a swerve. One I'll give you at a big price is Golden Chieftain. He was very impressive at Worcester on his penultimate start, before flopping in the Badger Ales Trophy. He didn't jump very well, but the track wouldn't suit him really (Despite a win there in the past, it was only a three runner race). He has been dropped four pounds, stays well, and has a nice weight of ten stone two. 20/1 could be decent each way value. Nice to see the underused Dave Crosse getting a big Saturday ride.
The International Hurdle at 3.05 is historically a useful trial for the Champion Hurdle in March. It's a three horse race in every way but the figures, between Zarkandar, Grandouet and reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby. None of them have won on anything softer than good to soft. As much as I love him, I can't see Grandouet grinding it out in a slog, although he did win this last year. Rock On Ruby, for me anyway, is better in bigger fields, and won a slightly confusing Champion Hurdle. I have to go with Zarkandar though, who was game as a pebble when defeating stablemate Prospect Wells giving him 17lbs last time. He is tactically versatile, and stays well. He should have been closer in the Champion, when the leaders stayed there off a muddling gallop, and he found himself pretty much last turning in, before flying home for a close fifth. I think he'll reverse that form with a 4lb weight pull this time.
The Relkeel Hurdle at 3.40 is not a betting race at all with only three runners, but it's all about Oscar Whisky, who needs more than two, but doesn't stay three miles. Two miles four around here is ideal, and last years winner will hopefully be able to dictate from the front and win again. He needs a 'Ryanair Hurdle'!!
At Doncaster, the 2.10, a handicap chase over two miles and three furlongs, I am sweet on the chance of Easter Meteor, who ran a belter behind Nadiya De La Vega at Cheltenham last time. He has had a 56 day break since, and only been put up four pounds, dropped in grade for a yard among the winners in Emma Lavelle.
The Summit Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 at 2.45 is a great race. Both Sametegal, who was impressive at Wetherby, and Kashmir Peak is well regarded and won readily at Market Rasen, should go well. Vasco Du Ronceray ran well at Cheltenham behind Far West last time and sets the standard. You can't discount Counsel or Mashaari either, who won a 2m2f handicap at York on the flat in October when with John Gosden, has since changed hands for a hefty fee and is in the care of Brian Ellison. I will see how much rain there is before selecting one.
Finally, the 0-150 handicap chase over three miles looks tricky, but I may have found some value. Corkage is a Doncaster specialist, and is always better with a run under his belt. He has only had eight chase starts, winning two of them, and with the Reveley yard in form, may go well at around the 20/1 mark.
I hope you have enjoyed my preview, and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Will
CHELTENHAM:
It is pretty easy to say how the ground will ride after seeing Fridays racing at Cheltenham, and that is testing. They kick off at 12.10 with a Triumph Hurdle Trial. It is hard to get away from Far West, a winner here last time over course and distance and on very testing ground. It is important to note that the courses are different from the Open Meeting, and he has a double penalty, but is running against pretty much the same horses here, having beaten Handazan, Dovils Date and Mr Lando either here or at Chepstow. The only one he hasn't beaten before is Tidal Way, but I don't quite think he's good enough.
The three mile one furlong novice chase at 12.45 looks a very informative race again, with Our Father sure to be right at the head of the market after an easy win here last time on bad ground. He's the safest option in a race it may pay to watch as opposed to get involved.
The Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase at 1.20 over two miles is always a spectacle. I am intrigued by Garynella, a five year old making his British debut for the David Pipe yard, but he has to compete from out of the handicap. All his form though is over further as well so I'll take a watching brief. I like Shooters Wood, with Ruby Walsh going to his lowest weight in the last five seasons to 10 stone. He won here last time out over course and distance, staying on well and must go very well again. One thing to note is the booking of Tony McCoy on His Excellency for the Pipe yard.
The three mile novices hurdle at 1.55 is a cracker, and can be approached from a few different angles. I may be a little biased after putting According To Trev up as a dark-horse at the start of the season, and he has a course win to his name, but he was beaten twelve lengths by Coneygree and I fear he needs better ground than this. I can't see him beating Coneygree, though I'd like to be wrong! The interesting aspect to this race is the chasers running back over hurdles. Midnight Appeal won a novice hurdle at Hereford recently but is better known for his exploits chasing. Aerial, who has finished placed in a Paddy Power Gold Cup, and Grand National winner Mon Mome still going strong at the age of twelve. Aerial may just shade it for me, as he is highest rated of these if taking his chase mark, he should stay and tends to do well at this track.
The Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup is one of the feature races of the day at 2.30, and it is wide open. Walkon is a narrow favourite after a very good second behind Al Ferof here last month, but he is very good fresh and tailed off after seasonal debut last year. My preference is for Cristal Bonus, who was impressive last time at Down Royal. Despite him having a big weight, he is classy, improving, and lightly raced (similar to Al Ferof). He has been outpaced on both previous runs here, but with bad ground his forte, he will be my leading selection. Nicholls also has Unioniste, but he's a four year old against seasoned, hardy handicappers, and despite the gamble, I'll also give him a swerve. One I'll give you at a big price is Golden Chieftain. He was very impressive at Worcester on his penultimate start, before flopping in the Badger Ales Trophy. He didn't jump very well, but the track wouldn't suit him really (Despite a win there in the past, it was only a three runner race). He has been dropped four pounds, stays well, and has a nice weight of ten stone two. 20/1 could be decent each way value. Nice to see the underused Dave Crosse getting a big Saturday ride.
The International Hurdle at 3.05 is historically a useful trial for the Champion Hurdle in March. It's a three horse race in every way but the figures, between Zarkandar, Grandouet and reigning Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby. None of them have won on anything softer than good to soft. As much as I love him, I can't see Grandouet grinding it out in a slog, although he did win this last year. Rock On Ruby, for me anyway, is better in bigger fields, and won a slightly confusing Champion Hurdle. I have to go with Zarkandar though, who was game as a pebble when defeating stablemate Prospect Wells giving him 17lbs last time. He is tactically versatile, and stays well. He should have been closer in the Champion, when the leaders stayed there off a muddling gallop, and he found himself pretty much last turning in, before flying home for a close fifth. I think he'll reverse that form with a 4lb weight pull this time.
The Relkeel Hurdle at 3.40 is not a betting race at all with only three runners, but it's all about Oscar Whisky, who needs more than two, but doesn't stay three miles. Two miles four around here is ideal, and last years winner will hopefully be able to dictate from the front and win again. He needs a 'Ryanair Hurdle'!!
At Doncaster, the 2.10, a handicap chase over two miles and three furlongs, I am sweet on the chance of Easter Meteor, who ran a belter behind Nadiya De La Vega at Cheltenham last time. He has had a 56 day break since, and only been put up four pounds, dropped in grade for a yard among the winners in Emma Lavelle.
The Summit Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 at 2.45 is a great race. Both Sametegal, who was impressive at Wetherby, and Kashmir Peak is well regarded and won readily at Market Rasen, should go well. Vasco Du Ronceray ran well at Cheltenham behind Far West last time and sets the standard. You can't discount Counsel or Mashaari either, who won a 2m2f handicap at York on the flat in October when with John Gosden, has since changed hands for a hefty fee and is in the care of Brian Ellison. I will see how much rain there is before selecting one.
Finally, the 0-150 handicap chase over three miles looks tricky, but I may have found some value. Corkage is a Doncaster specialist, and is always better with a run under his belt. He has only had eight chase starts, winning two of them, and with the Reveley yard in form, may go well at around the 20/1 mark.
I hope you have enjoyed my preview, and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Will
Thursday, 13 December 2012
Cheltenham Preview 14th December
Cheltenham hosts the first day of a two day meeting on Friday with a competitive and exciting seven race card. In this preview I will be touching on each race and any selections that I have. (At the time of writing, the cross country course are yet to inspect).
12.15 is the first race, and it's a novice chase over two miles and five furlongs. Hildisvini is up in grade and has a double penalty to contend with here, making life difficult. Broadbackbob created a good impression at Plumpton on chase debut, and is entitled to hold every chance. Forgotten Gold has plenty to find with both the horses mentioned above from previous races. Rebel Rebellion has some decent form, but it is on right handed tracks. He has won left handed, but it was a Southwell jumpers bumper at odds of 1/8! I will chance Super Duty, who recieves 5lbs from the others, and may get an easy lead here under the in-form Jason Maguire. He has shaped really well on both chase starts, and is best on good to soft and going left handed.
The 12.45 allows the conditional jockeys to have a chance at a big prize at the home of jumps racing, again a two mile five furlong handicap chase. Sound Stage won this particular race three years ago off an 8lb lower mark. He has been out of form, but showed a bit more last time and could go well again. As could Bene Lad, who fell at the first in this last year, but has improved since, goes on the ground and has Lucy Alexander aboard. But my selection is Lexicon Lad, who is very consistent. He needed his reappearance run at Aintree, getting outpaced before staying on. He was second over course and distance on Trials day in January off the same mark and is sure to go well under Peter Carberry. Surely he's fed up of Nina and Paul telling him he's yet to have a Cheltenham winner!
A fiercely competitive, seventeen runner handicap hurdle over two miles follows this at 1.20. The novices provide an interesting angle, Turn Over Sivola, the easy Plumpton winner, and the relative unknown Tom Du Lys for Nicky Henderson. I like two here each way. Dark Lover for Paul Nicholls won here two starts ago after a big lay off, and then ran in the Racing Post Hurdle over C&D, and ran a belter in seventh, only beaten eight lengths. The other is Falcarragh, again, he has a good course run here last time when third to Ifandbutwhynot. He has gone up 3lb, but is still fairly weighted and should go well.
The 1.55 is a belter, a three mile, two furlong handicap chase, and the early favourite is Bradley. He is trained by Fergal O'Brien, who is having a fantastic season, but this trip may be a little too short if anything. He got outpaced before staying on over this course and distance in October, and in the Foxhunters in March. Quartz De Thaix has been in the form of his life, but it is very difficult to win three in a row at this level. Midnight Chase is sure to go well if he can dominate on a course where his record excluding the Gold Cup reads: 2311111. He has top weight, but that shouldn't hinder a bold show. Becauseicouldntsee is the other one I like. He has finished second twice here at Cheltenham in both his visits to the course from Ireland, in the Kim Muir and four miler at the last two Festivals. He had a tune up over hurdles before the Kim Muir in March, and has had two more hurdles starts to presumably get him A1 for this race. 5/1 represents a solid each way.
If it goes ahead, the Cross Country chase at 2.30 will be the best spectacle of the day no doubt. Uncle Junior goes again, trying to repeat his success at the Open Meeting. He has to give the minimum of thirteen pounds to the others though, which will be very difficult. I really like Arabella Boy here, who has a good record in the Irish Banks races at Punchestown, including when beating Bostons Angel last time out. He is trained by 'Mr Cross Country' Enda Bolger, who is formidable here at Cheltenham, the likes of Garde Champetre and Spot The Difference spring to mind, and this horse has been nurtured towards this venue as he's only a seven year old, ten stone eight is a lovely racing weight and Nina Carberry aboard too.
3.05 is a three mile handicap hurdle, and it's important to note that Air Force One goes to Bangor if it's on, meaning this would then be a 15 runner race, and three places for each way backers. At Fishers Cross is favourite, and despite a poor round of jumping, won with plenty in hand at Newbury last time. He is stepping up to this trip for the first time, and I'm not sure it will suit, so am willing to let him go. Inish Island is a complete unknown, after winning a maiden hurdle at Downpatrick, but Willie Mullins is not here for a day out that's for sure. Medinas is consistent and acts at Cheltenham. I'm going to narrowly go for Saint Roque, who would have definitely been involved in the finish last time, still travelling well when brought down three out. He hasn't gone up for that, only had four runs under rules and despite being a pound out of the handicap, has a good conditional in Harry Derham aboard, and must go very well. The rise in trip shouldn't be a worry as he has won a point to point over this trip. At the other end of the weights, the gallant Cross Kennon will try his heart out again and should run well.
The closing novice hurdle at 3.40 looks a cracker too, this time over two miles. I was at Southwell when Imperial Leader won, and he is a very likeable type, and what impressed me was his response to reminders, if you can watch that replay on either Sportinglife (need a SkyBet account) or Attheraces (need a free account) websites, you will see what I mean. The big question of this race is what will front run? It may be the big outsider Dr Dreamy, or perhaps Royal Boy, yet to run under rules after a point win. Mr Watson, the horse that unseated and kicked Tony McCoy at Wetherby not too long ago, is reunited with the champ tomorrow after pulling far to hard at Market Rasen last time. Village Vic is dropped in trip, and is going to be my narrow selection in a good race. He was a high class bumper horse, and ran a great race here behind The New One in October on hurdles debut, before a flop in horrendous ground, again at Cheltenham over two miles and five furlongs last time. Melodic Rendezvous, Valdez and Eduard are all very nice types too, and could easily figure, but I fear they haven't quite got the class of Village Vic.
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Will
12.15 is the first race, and it's a novice chase over two miles and five furlongs. Hildisvini is up in grade and has a double penalty to contend with here, making life difficult. Broadbackbob created a good impression at Plumpton on chase debut, and is entitled to hold every chance. Forgotten Gold has plenty to find with both the horses mentioned above from previous races. Rebel Rebellion has some decent form, but it is on right handed tracks. He has won left handed, but it was a Southwell jumpers bumper at odds of 1/8! I will chance Super Duty, who recieves 5lbs from the others, and may get an easy lead here under the in-form Jason Maguire. He has shaped really well on both chase starts, and is best on good to soft and going left handed.
The 12.45 allows the conditional jockeys to have a chance at a big prize at the home of jumps racing, again a two mile five furlong handicap chase. Sound Stage won this particular race three years ago off an 8lb lower mark. He has been out of form, but showed a bit more last time and could go well again. As could Bene Lad, who fell at the first in this last year, but has improved since, goes on the ground and has Lucy Alexander aboard. But my selection is Lexicon Lad, who is very consistent. He needed his reappearance run at Aintree, getting outpaced before staying on. He was second over course and distance on Trials day in January off the same mark and is sure to go well under Peter Carberry. Surely he's fed up of Nina and Paul telling him he's yet to have a Cheltenham winner!
A fiercely competitive, seventeen runner handicap hurdle over two miles follows this at 1.20. The novices provide an interesting angle, Turn Over Sivola, the easy Plumpton winner, and the relative unknown Tom Du Lys for Nicky Henderson. I like two here each way. Dark Lover for Paul Nicholls won here two starts ago after a big lay off, and then ran in the Racing Post Hurdle over C&D, and ran a belter in seventh, only beaten eight lengths. The other is Falcarragh, again, he has a good course run here last time when third to Ifandbutwhynot. He has gone up 3lb, but is still fairly weighted and should go well.
The 1.55 is a belter, a three mile, two furlong handicap chase, and the early favourite is Bradley. He is trained by Fergal O'Brien, who is having a fantastic season, but this trip may be a little too short if anything. He got outpaced before staying on over this course and distance in October, and in the Foxhunters in March. Quartz De Thaix has been in the form of his life, but it is very difficult to win three in a row at this level. Midnight Chase is sure to go well if he can dominate on a course where his record excluding the Gold Cup reads: 2311111. He has top weight, but that shouldn't hinder a bold show. Becauseicouldntsee is the other one I like. He has finished second twice here at Cheltenham in both his visits to the course from Ireland, in the Kim Muir and four miler at the last two Festivals. He had a tune up over hurdles before the Kim Muir in March, and has had two more hurdles starts to presumably get him A1 for this race. 5/1 represents a solid each way.
If it goes ahead, the Cross Country chase at 2.30 will be the best spectacle of the day no doubt. Uncle Junior goes again, trying to repeat his success at the Open Meeting. He has to give the minimum of thirteen pounds to the others though, which will be very difficult. I really like Arabella Boy here, who has a good record in the Irish Banks races at Punchestown, including when beating Bostons Angel last time out. He is trained by 'Mr Cross Country' Enda Bolger, who is formidable here at Cheltenham, the likes of Garde Champetre and Spot The Difference spring to mind, and this horse has been nurtured towards this venue as he's only a seven year old, ten stone eight is a lovely racing weight and Nina Carberry aboard too.
3.05 is a three mile handicap hurdle, and it's important to note that Air Force One goes to Bangor if it's on, meaning this would then be a 15 runner race, and three places for each way backers. At Fishers Cross is favourite, and despite a poor round of jumping, won with plenty in hand at Newbury last time. He is stepping up to this trip for the first time, and I'm not sure it will suit, so am willing to let him go. Inish Island is a complete unknown, after winning a maiden hurdle at Downpatrick, but Willie Mullins is not here for a day out that's for sure. Medinas is consistent and acts at Cheltenham. I'm going to narrowly go for Saint Roque, who would have definitely been involved in the finish last time, still travelling well when brought down three out. He hasn't gone up for that, only had four runs under rules and despite being a pound out of the handicap, has a good conditional in Harry Derham aboard, and must go very well. The rise in trip shouldn't be a worry as he has won a point to point over this trip. At the other end of the weights, the gallant Cross Kennon will try his heart out again and should run well.
The closing novice hurdle at 3.40 looks a cracker too, this time over two miles. I was at Southwell when Imperial Leader won, and he is a very likeable type, and what impressed me was his response to reminders, if you can watch that replay on either Sportinglife (need a SkyBet account) or Attheraces (need a free account) websites, you will see what I mean. The big question of this race is what will front run? It may be the big outsider Dr Dreamy, or perhaps Royal Boy, yet to run under rules after a point win. Mr Watson, the horse that unseated and kicked Tony McCoy at Wetherby not too long ago, is reunited with the champ tomorrow after pulling far to hard at Market Rasen last time. Village Vic is dropped in trip, and is going to be my narrow selection in a good race. He was a high class bumper horse, and ran a great race here behind The New One in October on hurdles debut, before a flop in horrendous ground, again at Cheltenham over two miles and five furlongs last time. Melodic Rendezvous, Valdez and Eduard are all very nice types too, and could easily figure, but I fear they haven't quite got the class of Village Vic.
I hope you have enjoyed my preview, and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12, or fill in the box below.
Will
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