Thursday, 20 December 2012

21st December Wolverhampton Preview

Wolverhampton stage a twilight meeting on Friday, with eight races and eighty one horses competing around the Polytrack. For anyone who hasn't been, the circuit is about a mile round, left handed and quite a fast track, with the Polytrack equitting when Standard to Good to Firm ground on the turf.

3.15 - 2yo Class 5 Maiden, 8 runners 7f 32y:

The one that I'm immediately drawn to here is Barbsiz, who was fourth over C&D just over three weeks ago. Firstly, he has track form, which is important, secondly he has Tom Eaves on, a very useful jockey, and the second from that race, Sofi's Spirit, has since won three on the bounce. Overrider has a official rating of 72, and really should probably win this. He has a step up to seven furlongs to face, but sets the standard, and with his jockey Robert Winston in flying form, must go very close indeed. The most interesting newcomer is Excellent Puck from the Jamie Osborne yard, who is a half brother to six winners and represents an in-form yard. Multilicious is one for handicaps I feel and will come up short in this.

3.50 - 2yo Class 6 Fillies Maiden, 7 runners 5f 216y:

Similar to our opening race, we have a horse with a high handicap mark, in the shape of Midnight Flower. She has been unlucky to be chinned on the post over course and distance on her penultimate start, before not quite staying the trip out here last time. Sherinn has clearly got a few issues, as the hood is applied here on her third start, and she was disappointing last time. Saying that, her yard do have a 37% strike rate at this venue. Spymistress is interesting in that her price rose a lot at the sales, but the pedigree isn't that appealing. I like Clock Opera, who is from an in form yard in Elaine Burke. Last time out she was 5th behind Body and Soul at Ripon. The interesting stat is that 8 winners have won out of that eleven runner race, with two rated in the nineties and an current average rating of 76. She was an eye-catcher in that race, but hasn't run since. Whether she will need this, as she gets a mark afterwards who knows, but she could be value.

4.20 - 0-52 Class 6 Handicap Div 1, 11 runners 5f 20y:

Monumental Man is the obvious one after a successful drop to five furlongs last time out at Lingfield, making all under the same rider David Probert.  The concern is he could get taken on for the lead this time, but he doesn't have to lead which is a plus. He's the one to beat. Rose Garnet was another last time out winner when making all after a big gamble at Kempton on British debut for Tony Carroll. The yard are not in very good form and I will oppose this one. A couple at each way prices that could go well are Rightcar and Divertimenti. The former is a dual winner here and is 3lbs below his last winning mark. He is a slow starter, and needs a fast pace to run off. He is also ridden by Jamie Spencer for the first time, and riding for the stable for the first time as well. As for Divertimenti, he hasn't won on the All Weather since January 2009, off a mark of 65. He now races off 44 and still retains a bit of ability. He can race from the front or the back, so depending on pace, jockey Mark Coumbe can make his mind up early on.

4.50 - 0-52 Class 6 Handicap Div 2, 11 runners 5f 20y:

It's fair to say that this division looks the weaker of the two. Chateau Lola finished ahead of Deveze last time at Lingfield staying on well, and has been dropped 2lbs as well. She has a good draw in 5 and Joe Fanning aboard who won on her the last time they teamed up. In a race I find very hard to make a case for a lot of the runners, Cri Na Mara might be the answer. She ran ok here last time behind a well handicapped Passionada, and had her only triumph on the second run after a break. Andrea Atzeni is a good pilot around this course and with a good draw in 2, she should go well.

5.20 - 0-85 Class 4 Nursery, 6 runners, 7f 32y:

This is the feature contest out of the eight race card. Hipster sets the standard here for Ralph Beckett and Jamie Spencer. He ran behind a very good Group3 winning All Weather horse called Glass Office on his only previous start on a synthetic surface. Staffhoss is a danger after a maiden win at Lingfield recently. What I would say is it has taken a little while for the penny to drop when he comes under pressure in both his starts to date, but he is learning. Lilac Lace has to prove his effectiveness on Polytrack after a win in a very poor Southwell maiden last time. Pippy and Be On The Bell are both course and distance winners, but I'll stick with Hipster, who should be that little bit too good.

5.50 - 0-50 Class 7 Handicap, 13 runners, 1m 141y:

Big Sylv was an easy winner here last week on her first start in Class 7 company, and should go very well in a repeat bid. She is the only three year old in the race too, and at least looks to be improving against a lot of poor, out of form horses. Just Five is my alternative. John Weymes has a 17% strike rate here with older horses, and +£62 to a level stake. Likewise, rider Luke Morris has a 15% strike rate riding the trainers older horses, and a healthy profit. This horse is a bit quirky, but his last two wins have both been here at Wolverhampton, and blinkers replace a visor. Violet Jordan has four runners, all in the same colours, with just the different coloured caps to distinguish them.

6.20 - 0-65 Class 6 3yo Handicap, 13 runners, 1m1f 103y:

This looks a very competitive event indeed, with lots of in-form horses. Neige D'Antan has been very consistent, either winning or finishing in the frame on his last nine starts. With the plum draw in 1, he must run well again as he is tactically versatile. Graylyn Valentino was arguably an unlucky loser last time at Lingfield, after missing the break and racing wide throughout only getting beat a short head. The winner Idol Deputy and the fourth Resplendant Alpha have won since, and Joe Fanning replaces Semira Pashai. Alezanna robbed a maiden from the front here last time, and am a little unsure how good that form is. A couple I could see figure are Ferryview Place and Her Nibbs. The former is on debut for Ian Williams, a yard which does very well with horses similar to this. He is also in a visor for the first time. Her Nibbs is interesting on handicap debut for a yard who I think are just about to hit form in Micky Hammond. A mark of 61 does not look overharsh by any means and on handicap debut, could go well.

6.50 - 0-65 Class 6 Handicap, 12 runners, 1m4f 50y:

A tricky twelve furlong handicap closes the card, and Resplendant Alpha has to be high up the list after a win at Lingfield in selling company on Wednesday. A 6lb penalty will make life tougher and he has never won at Wolverhampton, but he should still figure. McBirney is starting to look well handicapped, but I don't think he has many gears and if it turned into a sprint, that would be a worry. Icy Quiet is interesting on it's first start for David O'Meara after leaving the Toby Coles yard, but hasn't shown much to date. I think both Wordiness and El Bravo can go well here, especially Wordiness who should have finished very close to Resplendant Alpha before meeting trouble at Lingfield last time. John Fahy rides today and can go well. El Bravo has been hinting at a big run, but is a little one paced.

Thanks for reading and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Will

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