The King George VI Chase - Kempton 3.10:
Where do I stand on Long Run?:
Long Run is the favourite for his second triumph in this race. He won this in 2010, en route to winning the Gold Cup in the following March. Last season, he just kept running behind a resurgent Kauto Star, and then only managed third in the Gold Cup behind the ill-fated Synchronised. On his seasonal reappearance, he was found wanting behind Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase. A lot of people have criticised Sam Waley-Cohen, but those people weren't slagging him off when he won this and the Gold Cup before, and he has been missing one major thing since, and that's a really fast pace. His victory in this two years ago was run at a blistering pace set by Nacarat, which allowed his jumping to be in a great rhythm, before outstaying the others to win by twelve lengths, ahead of Riverside Theatre. The same was the case in his Gold Cup win, this time Midnight Chase and China Rock the ones who set the race up for him. If he gets this, which is possible with the likes of Junior and The Giant Bolster in the line-up, he will win for me, as he's the strongest stayer in the race.
What can beat him?:
Cue Card is having his first go at three miles, and if this contest were run on the usual good to soft ground, I'd really fancy him. But it is soft, heavy in places as I write, and I just can't see him staying as much as I like him. Riverside Theatre has form figures of 11111 when fresh, which speaks for itself. He was beaten quite a way by Long Run two years ago, and the trip and ground combination have to put an element of doubt over his chance.
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| Bolster The Giant |
Normally, Grand Crus would be for me, after his brilliant performance on this day last year in the Feltham, but form figures of: 72126P on soft or heavy ground again put serious doubt as to his capability on the ground, and he has had a wind op since he pulled up in the Paddy Power. The Giant Bolster, named after a Cornish giant called Bolster who used to live near the cliffs of St Agnes, and used to eat people and children! There is also a Bolster Day, held on May 1st every year held very close to St Agnes. As for the equine Bolster, he has a good each way chance under Tony McCoy, even though he is better on a left handed track.
Captain Chris for me is a doubtful stayer over three miles on this ground, and would be an ideal horse for a Ryanair run on a right handed track, as he is definitely better this way round.
I'm going to select Kauto Stone as the one to fear for all. He won in good style at Down Royal last time, and if he can perform to a similar level, he will go very close. Different to Long Run, I think he needs a slower pace, which allows him to do things at his own speed, and he will certainly stay as well. Junior has plenty to find on figures, but he does stay, jump and loves testing ground and wouldn't completely suprise me if he placed at big odds here.
Christmas Hurdle - Kempton 2.35
Countrywide Flame sets the standard here after an efffortless win in the Fighting Fifth hurdle up at Newcastle, beating fellow rival Cinders And Ashes by twelve lengths. Countrywide Flame did go there race-fit after a couple of Flat runs, but regardless trounced Cinders And Ashes on very heavy ground, who was struggling from some way out. The main challenger may be Darlan, who I really like as an individual. He beat stablemate Captain Conan at Aintree after a very honourable run behind Cinders And Ashes at the Festival. The big issue is the ground, which is an unknown.
Dodging Bullets is a fascinating runner as he is very lightly raced compared to most, but is improving at a fast rate of knots. He hasn't raced on ground this bad or in this grade, and I think he will run well without winning. Raya Star is better in a big field handicap, and Get Me Out Of Here, who is top rated, again has his work cut out, although a return to two miles will be appreciated. It's also great to see 2009 Champion Hurdler Punjabi back before he embarks on novice chasing.
Overall, I think Countrywide Flame is very tough to beat, race-fit and will relish the conditions.
Any Christmas Crackers?
The undercard at Kempton may present us with a few opportunities. The opening novice hurdle at 12.50, looks a great race. New Year's Eve was a high class bumper horse making hurdles debut, but River Maigue is the one to beat for Nicky Henderson. I've been waiting for Asker to reappear as well and now starts out for Gary Moore. He goes really well on heavy ground and could place. The Feltham at 2.00 is all about Dynaste, who is the highest rated hurdler to go chasing this season, and has looked very good so far in two starts. His record right handed is ok without being outstanding, but it may well be enough.
The 3.45 looks our best oppurtunity for a Kempton winner, with Katkeau. He was in the process of running a big race at Haydock on British debut last time out, before making a serious blunder at three out, losing all momentum and was nursed home after that. He is off the same mark here and should go very well.
Fontwell brings a nice oppurtunity in the closing bumper at 3.50, with On The Move. Anthony Honeyball horses are always worth following, and this one made a very pleasing debut at Folkestone, looking the winner before tiring in the final furlong for second, that race was over two mile two furlongs. Down half a mile in trip here, she should score.
If Ffos Las goes ahead, I will be excited to see the return of Whisper in the opening novice hurdle at 12.35. It is not the easiest race to start off over hurdles, but he is very exciting. He is also entered at Towcester, but this is his first preference. I also think Riptide in the 2.20 has a big each way chance. He has caught the eye recently staying on late in the day, but looks well handicapped and drops in class. Course form is a must at Ffos Las too, and he has a win at this venue too.
Sedgefield represents a good chance for Fourjacks, who was just a bit outclassed last time in a hot race at Haydock behind Gevrey Chambertin. He loves a slog, as proved when sauntering clear at Hexham on his penultimate start, and must go well.
Over at Towcester, I'm looking forward to seeing Badgers Cove try his hand at chasing in the Beginners Chase at 3.05. He shaped with plenty of his old ability on his return from a big lay-off at Chepstow, but has really good course form.
Wincanton's feature race is the Pertemps Qualifier at 2.15, with 21 runners going to post. Connectivity is obviously going to attract interest after a massive lay-off, but it is hard to look away from both Holywell and Goulanes, with the former only finding Trustan Times too good last time. As for Goulanes, he won at Cheltenham last time in similar conditions, and must go well under a very handy 10lb claimer in Francis Hayes.
The big race at Wetherby is the Rowland Meyrick Chase, and for me it's between Cape Tribulation and Going Wrong. Cape Tribultion is well handicapped and lightly raced over fences, and has form here. His last run can be forgiven as it was at a level that was above him. Going Wrong definitely needed his reappearance at Haydock, getting a considerate ride, and won second time up last year. He's never tried three miles before, but his sire Bob Backs progeny; which include the likes of Bob's Worth and Thisthatandtother, suggest it shouldn't be a problem.
I hope you have enjoyed my preview, and if you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12, or fill in the box below.
Have a very Merry Christmas and a fruitful New Year,
Will
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