Top class action on a busy Saturday (weather permitting!) 09/01/21

Calipso Collonges can go well in the Chepstow showpiece. (c)Nigel Kirby

 

Luckily, the weather seems to have taken a slightly more positive turn over Thursday and into Friday, which will hopefully allow for a full compliment of jumps meetings. With the rearranged Dipper Novices Chase at Wincanton, the rescheduled Relkeel Hurdle at Kempton alongside an intriguing renewal of the Silviniaco Conti Chase. The Welsh National is a race I've always had a soft spot for and I have a selection for the big race who can hopefully run well at a decent price.

I have put together five selections, all of which should be fair prices and could be worth chucking in an each way Lucky 31, or something of that ilk, and fingers crossed, we can pick up some pennies. Let's get into it:

El Conquistador 11.30 Lingfield

A tricky way to start the day but El Conquistador is a horse I've been waiting to reappear after an eyecatching effort over a mile here last time out, for which he has been dropped two pounds. He is running over 1m2f this time and has the tongue tie on for the first time, which could bring about further improvement. Trainer Shaun Keightley is an extremely shrewd operator and this lightly raced runner could easily have scope off his mark of 63. Dangers are the hat-trick seeking Subliminal, long distance traveller Corked and Sophosc, who showed a bit more last time and is well handicapped.

Smarty Wild 1.10 Kempton

Smarty Wild lines up here for the Philip Hobbs team, and is still lightly raced over larger obstacles, and I strongly suspect this test will be ideal. Racing in the colours of Gunther McBride, who ran in four Racing Post Chases at this venue in the early noughties including a win in 2002, has had just the three starts over fences and showed plenty of promise. He was well fancied at Wetherby two starts ago, where he didn't travel very well after clouting an obstacle down the back straight, before finishing a good third in better company at Ascot last time. The heavy, sticky ground that day won't have helped and these conditions, together with a drop in grade can see him go very close.

Santon 1.30 Wincanton

Santon makes his handicap debut for Tom Cannon and Alan King. He survived Trevor Hemmings' dispersal and remains a horse with potential after catching the eye in all of his novice hurdles to varying degrees, particularly last time out behind Bobhopeornohope at Doncaster, beating a previous and subsequent winner in the process. A mark of 115 is fair and I'm expecting a big run. Sizeable Sam would be a main danger, and he is a horse I like, particularly going over fences next term.

Calipso Collonges 3.10 Chepstow

Welsh National time!! Cases can be made for loads of these, particularly the favourite Secret Reprieve, who is 8lbs well in after his win here in the 'Trial' for this, beating The Two Amigos and Bobo Mac in the process. However, the trip is a slight concern for him, unlike his stablemate Prime Venture, who was fourth in the race last year and reappeared this term with an easy Sedgefield win. Last year's second and third also line up again, Truckers Lodge and Yala Enki, both trained by Paul Nicholls, and have solid claims of going well again. However, if you want one at a price, you could do worse than Calipso Collonges, who travelled like a dream at Aintree in the Becher Chase last time out, where after travelling beautifully up until the home turn, just blowing up and needing the run late on. He will have come on for that, has a featherweight for last year's winning rider Jack Tudor, and can hopefully be given a patient ride and gradually pick runners off one by one, and with extra places which most bookies will be offering, can run a big race.

Doyannie 3.50 Chepstow

Finally, Doyannie lines up in the Chepstow finale for James Best and Jack Barber. She is another making her handicap debut and looks as though a mark of 109 could be well within range. She has shown more than enough promise in her novice hurdle outings so far, in particular last time out, and given that the front two in the market, Whiteoak Fleur and Poniente both like to get on with it, it could pay to be on a horse a little bit off the speed.

Hopefully the weather is kind and we can look forward to a great day of top quality sport. I'll be back on Sunday having a review of Saturday's action, plus a look ahead to Monday's action at Doncaster.

Be lucky and most importantly in these times, stay safe.

Southwell preview 08/01/2021

It is "silly season" at Southwell, with racing multiple times in a week in recent times, with the course regulars out in force. After a frustrating Thursday of crossbar hitting, Friday's card yet again poses a few puzzles to work out so hopefully we can solve them starting with a three year old handicap.

4.15: 0-75 handicap for three year olds over 1m

Despite the small field, further down the line this contest could prove quite a decent event for future winners. Blue Hero heads the market for Mick Appleby and Andrew 'Midge' Mullen, and is definitely the one they have to beat after a very good second place finish on his first start for current connections at Wolverhampton behind Final Voyage, himself rated 89 before that race, and also not getting the smoothest of passages. He has proven his liking for this venue on his final start for Michael Bell when third and cheekpieces are applied for the first time. His four rivals are yet to try the surface, although both Smart Qibili and Deep Impression are bred to enjoy the conditions, with the former arguably the more interesting given his strong travelling nature and American dirt pedigree. However, despite his skinny odds, and also in receipt of weight from both those opponents, Blue Hero can get off the mark. It may also be noteworthy that the same trainer and owners combined to win this last year with Merryweather.

4.45: 0-65 handicap over 7f

A race in which good recent form is brought to the table by Greek Kodiac, trained by Kevin Foy, who has made a good start to his training career after being assistant to James Fanshawe for many years. He won at Newcastle last time but now tackles Fibresand for the first time, a comment which can be made about Luna Wish after her Wolverhampton second last time out. On the assumption Motawaafeq won't run after his exertions on Thursday, Al Batal and Daafy bring placed form into the mix, with the latter my preferred runner of the two after a very promising second over 1m here last time. He is a huge horse who may well have needed that run and with the apprentice of the moment Laura Pearson aboard again together with the in-form stable, must play a part. I selected Six Strings as one of my five to follow for the All-Weather season for Betway (see here), and he now returns to his favoured Fibresand for the first time since joining John Quinn and interestingly cheekpieces are re-applied for the first time since January 2019 so he could easily bounce back to form. I'll take those two against the field but if there is any money for Mayson Mount, that must be noted given shrewd connections and pedigree.

5.15: 0-85 handicap over 6f

Now, the difficulty of this is at the time of writing, both Samovar (winner) and Giogiobbo (sixth), at the top of the market, both ran on Thursday, so there remains an element of doubt as to whether they will turn up. Samovar has ran quickly back to back in the past and would be the most likely to reappear. Thrave won a seller here last time, showing his first sign of life for around eighteen months and in the process gave Frederick Larson his first winner. He would obviously have a chance, but whether he can back that up is a huge question mark. Oakenshield certainly catches the eye on second start for Linda Stubbs, primarily because of the booking of Hollie Doyle. He could be ahead of his mark given how lightly raced he is and certainly has the pedigree to act well on the track. I'm going to end up throwing a few pennies each way on Katheefa here for Ruth Carr and Jimmy Sullivan. Ruth's horses are in the best form they've been in for some time and despite some desparate form figures lately, only one of those was here and that was over 5f (outpaced completely). However he is 4-8 over this course and distance, including a win in this race last year off a 6lb higher mark. Interestingly, a tongue tie is applied for the first time as well.

5.45: 0-60 handicap over 2m

Not the strongest heat in the world but cases can be made for a few of them, with Artistic Streak probably the horse with the most solid recent form. A good recent run at Wolverhampton came two starts after a course and distance win, when showing a great attitude. Cheap Jack returns after a short break for the evergreen Ron Thompson and Paul Mulrennan, who rode this lad to victory over 1m4f in October. The trip is definitely a question mark for him. Lady Camelot and Restive could well go well if showing their best Southwell form, but if you forced a selection out of me it'd probably be Irish Minister for Luke Morris. He is yet to win at Southwell but has some fair efforts in defeat, and should they go hard up front, he will keep plodding on.

6.15: Novice Stakes (3yo+) over 6f

A novice in which the standard is set by the 68 rated Kevin The Minion after a second place finish here last time out, but there are a couple of dangerous opponents. Ghost Rider cost £55k and now makes his debut for Mark Johnston and has not got to be a world beater to land this one. Time Frame however has the benefit of experience after a debut run at Wolverhampton, and the James Tate runners are always to be feared at this venue. I'll plump for Time Frame as a selection, but I won't be having a bet.

6.45: 0-55 handicap over 1m6f

A low-grade staying handicap in which Heron will be at the top of the market for Brett Johnson, a yard who have been in great form for the last two months now, tries to win back to back races after a comfortable success three weeks ago. He is certainly bound to go very close, with Shine Baby Shine, a course regular and three time course winner a big danger. Amourie is yet to win in seventeen tries but did run well in fourth here last time in what was a strong race for the grade and no doubt will give her running again. Mister Universum ran well behind Heron over course and distance when fourth and could run well behind him again as I can't see Heron being beaten provided he turns up in the same form again.

7.15: 0-65 three year old only handicap over 5f

Not the easiest of races to work out at the end of the card, and one that I won't spend too much time on. The Gloaming has been a work in progress so far and has gradually improved run by run for a shrewd operation in Iain Jardine, who also has a good record at the track. She is the one I like here but I definitely fear Professor Galant, who already has three Southwell stamps in the passport. Vitalline is a rare raider from the Rod Millman yard, and the booking of Richard Kingscote and first time headgear could point the way to a big effort. Similar comments apply to the locally trained True Contendor for the very shrewd David Brown. A big market move would not be out of the equation for the latter.

As for best bets, I would select Heron as the nap and Katheefa can run very well in the 5.15, a race he won twelve months ago.

I'll be back again tomorrow with a look ahead to Saturday's racing, weather permitting!!

Southwell preview 7/1/2021

 Southwell plays host to a seven race All-Weather Championships card, mixed as ever with a clutch of course specialists and horses trying the surface for the first time.

The first race on the card is a prime example of that, with a 1m4f handicap for horses rated 0-75 at 12.45. There are likely to be two horses clear at the top of the market in the shape of recent Wolverhampton scorer Lord Of The Alps, and Grimsthorpe Castle, who has been very busy in recent weeks at this venue. Lord Of The Alps has only had nine career starts, yet none of them have come on the Fibresand and against five rivals who have 38 course runs between them. Grimsthorpe Castle on the other hand has ran seven times at the course, all of them since 27th October 2020, winning three and never being out of the first three. He has risen from a mark of 46 to 62 but should run a race again. One point that screams out to me here is the likely strong pace on offer. Both horses together with Cold Harbour have led in recent races and it could lead into a bit of a burn-up at the head of affairs. That's why I'd take an each way chance, especially with three places, on Contingency Fee, who is a dual winner at the track and might just be suited by the way the race will pan out. Jason Hart, who was in the winners at the last meeting, has a rare ride for the yard, in fact just his third and he could well run a big race after a better effort last time. Cold Harbour won this last year and again can be a player if he settles better than he has on his last two starts.

1.15: 0-80 handicap over 5f

A really tricky puzzle to solve. Three of these face-off again, six days after Thegreatestshowman narrowly beat Giogiobbo, with a further three lengths back to Dark Shot. It seems unlikely that the latter can get much closer to be honest, despite being well handicapped. Giogiobbo has a weight pull with Thegreatestshowman but I'm not so certain he can turn it around. If I had to have a bet, which of course I don't, I'd have a small win play on Slowmo, who is 4lb well-in and if breaking on terms could prove tough to beat.

1.45: 0-60 handicap over 1m

Another race in which recent course form appears again, with Motawaafeq a recent winner edging out the course specialist Custard The Dragon by a head over this course and distance. That run was a return to form for Motawaafeq, and a repeat would see him go very close. However, he isn't exactly consistent so is by no means a good thing. Olivers Pursuit comes here having won his last two races at Wolverhampton over the extended mile under George Bass, who retains the ride. If he acts on the track, he is the one to beat but the problem horse to him is the unexposed Pivotal Decision, trained by James Tate who has a high strike rate here. She's only had three starts and to date needs a bit more improvement, but a step up to a mile for the first time and first run on this surface, especially given she is by Pivotal, with a good strike-rate at the track, could well work the oracle.

2.15 0-80: handicap over 1m

Yet another devilishly tricky handicap with lots of course form on offer, with five course winners, including recent course winners Perfect Swiss and Fieldsman, alongside Star Of St James, Parellel World and Luscifer. However two of the three horses yet to try the surface may play a part. Fred hasn't ran for nearly ten weeks and now makes Fibresand debut for champion All-Weather rider Ben Curtis and Mark Johnston. The slight question mark is that his sire Frankel is yet to have one of his offspring win at Southwell from 8 tries, but he is out of a Dubawi mare so could easily figure. Yuften isn't to be dismissed too easily either. He is a very well handicapped horse who despite his ten year old legs, has shown that the fire still burns in a few runs for his current stable and he could easily outrun his likely double figure odds.

2.45: 0-70 handicap over 6f 

Samovar and Dirchill both ran at the course 4 days ago, with Samovar second and Dirchill third in their respective races, and both should run their races again. Dirchill did rather get an easy time of it last time and it remains to be seen what would happen if he was to get some kickback early on, especially as Samovar is drawn on his outside. Samovar has had a very busy run of things and it can be argued he is better at 5f. However, he has a tendancy to miss the break which isn't ideal. Ginger Max is capable of running a big race if they go very quick but I like Excessable, who has done very little wrong on three starts at the track and the race could work out well for him should he race prominently once again.

3.15: 0-50 classified race over 1m

Once again, we have recent course form to the fore here with Momtalik a short price favourite for Ivan Furtado, who has his horses in rude health. Momtalik was backed as if defeat was out of the question and duly obliged here four days ago, and was given a pretty aggresive ride too, which is a big concern that this might come too quickly. Zahirah and Walton Thorns were in behind there, but I think Zahirah will be able to turn the form around if able to be ridden handier. The addition of cheekpieces and a 5lb weight pull which includes Marco Ghiani's very useful claim will hopefully all add up to a victory. Muqarred is more than capable but hasn't been showing much at all for some time.

3.45: 0-60 apprentice handicap over 5f

Not the easiest way to end the day but the winner's in there somewhere!! I am a big fan of the Adrian Keatley yard and Compton's Finale would certainly come into this if acting on the track under Jessica Anderson, who will looking for her first winner. Tilsworth Rose looks relatively solid for that man John Jenkins, after blowing the start here last time. The only doubt I would have is the distance as I have a suspicion she may be better over 6f. I'm going to chance Brandy Station for the Lisa Williamson yard making his Fibresand debut. He is 3-8 in Class 6 company and a positive I like in these events are horses who have been ridden by their respective riders previously, and that is the case with Zak Wheatley who has ridden him on the last three occasions. He has also had lots of experience at this venue, with 25 rides and a couple of winners here too.

As far as best bets, I'll go for those last two races, Zahirah and Brandy Station.

I'll be back again tomorrow for a look at Friday's card.

Bristol The Third! - A weekend review

After events at Taunton, Cheltenham and Fontwell in the past fortnight, jumps fans needed a boost and as ever, Haydock's Betfair Chase meeting delivered the perfect gift despite the horrific conditions. Since the race was founded in 2005, the race keeps throwing up memorable and emotional renewals. Cue Card winning the race three times, Silviniaco Conti a dual winner, the war between Kauto Star and Imperial Commander in 2009 and the best of all, Kauto returning to win his fourth Betfair in 2011 aged 11, with the packed stands all shouting him home regardless of what you'd backed.

This season though, Bristol De Mai went for a third win in the race, up against the horse who knocked him off his throne last year Lostintranslation together with dual King George winner Clan Des Obeaux. More on that later, but let's rewind to Friday first.

Friday 20th November 2020:

Ascot played host to a couple of nice races for young horses including the chasing debut of Chantry House, the latest in a batch of exciting Nicky Henderson horses for the season. Personally, I thought his performance was reminiscent of Altior in it's appearance, with some slow and not very slick jumping in the early stages and having to be kidded along at a couple of junctures in the race. However when the tap was turned on, just prior to Pic D'Orhy taking a tumble at three out, he came back hard on the bridle and jumped the last two with lots of enthausiasm and quickened well when asked. He strikes me as a horse who will keep improving and the sky remains the limit. Speaking of Henderson horses, Buzz, who ran well in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on his return this season, absolutely hacked up in a good field. He was a well above-average Flat horse and there is an argument to say that if Seven Barrows weren't armed with Buveur D'Air and Epatante, then Buzz may well be considered for a spot higher up the ladder. For now though, a return to Ascot for the big handicap just before Christmas could well be on the agenda. 

Metier again impressed for Harry Fry in the introductory hurdle, with the second horse Tile Tapper definitely one to keep on side for a trainer who certainly knows what he is doing in Chris Honour. 

One to catch the eye at Chepstow amidst the gloomy weather was Eclair D'Ainay taking the novice handicap chase for the Skelton brothers. You won't see many better rounds of jumping around Chepstow, which is a real test for any horse let alone one making his chase debut. He won this off 116 but despite being destined for a hike in the weights, if he jumps like that again, he'll be very hard to beat wherever he goes.

Saturday 21st November 2020:

As mentioned earlier on, Bristol De Mai left his Gloucestershire base to try and wrestle back the Betfair Chase trophy. The weather gods certainly were on Bristol's side as it tipped it down all day leaving the ground heavy for the off. Lostintranslation didn't look himself for most of the final circuit and despite Clan Des Obeaux travelling best to two out, you always felt that Bristol would find enough. This was 'his Gold Cup' as opposed to the others you feel. It's all about the King George with Clan Des Obeaux and with the Tizzard horses all needing the run, you sense the Gold Cup itself is the primary target for Lostintranslation. 

Elsewhere on the card, it is great to see Master Tommytucker begin to sort his jumping out after taking the Graduation Chase in impressive fashion under Sam Twiston-Davies. He's still not 100% but I wouldn't like to guess where he could be come the end of the season. 

Main Fact remarkably landed yet another win in the feature three mile handicap hurdle, giving the impressive young rider Fergus Gillard a big Saturday winner. More on the horses in behind below.

At Ascot, Imperial Aura once again enhanced his growing reputation with a very good performance against Itchy Feet, whose jumping could have been better, and Real Steel bombed out quickly on his debut for Paul Nicholls. The winner was the only horse with a run this season and once again, like so many of Kim Bailey's horses, his jumping was very good all race. First Flow was also successful for the yard later on the card on ground which definitely would be as quick as he'd want it, as he loves heavy ground, reminiscant of the yard's former top staying chaser Harry Topper.

Song For Someone was also impressive for the very much in form Tom Symonds yard, beating Call Me Lord, who ran just ok and the disappointing Laurina, who once again ran a stinker, this time on her first run for Paul Nicholls. I feel she hasn't really been the same since her disappointing run in the Champion Hurdle to the ill fated Espoir D'Allen in heavy ground in 2018, and now it requires a serious time spent at the drawing board.

I've compiled a list of 5 to keep onside from Saturday:

Third Wind (Hughie Morrison) - A very good second to Main Fact at Haydock under Jonjo O'Neill Jnr and this likeable and consistent performer looks set for another good campaign. He is already qualified for the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival, a race in which he ran well in last year. The Pertemps qualifier at Wincanton on Boxing Day could be a target.

Imperial Alcazar (Fergal O'Brien) - Midfield behind Main Fact as well on his seasonal reappearance after travelling very well if not a bit keen through the race. He came to nearly take over at the third last before his exersions took their toll in the bottomless ground. Paddy Brennan looked after him and he remains a nice prospect.

Frimeur De Lancray (Sue Smith) - 4th in the opening Listed novice hurdle at Haydock on his third hurdle start, staying on strongly all the way to the line after being outpaced on the home turn. The three ahead of him were all past winners, with one win, two wins and three hurdle wins respectively ahead of him and this lad, with a step up in trip, will definitely be winning very soon.

Camprond (Phillip Hobbs) - A very good 2nd on his Huntingdon hurdle debut for Phillip Hobbs behind Glory And Honour, a horse that Tom Lacey rates highly. He had been off for the best part of two years since leaving Pia Brandt's yard in France, but running in the colours of JP McManus, this four year old ran a fantastic race, jumping well and travelling powerfully throughout. He's a winner waiting to happen.

The Denholm Bandit (Stuart Kittow) - Ran in the farcically run bumper at Ascot on Saturday and ultimately finished in midfield. He is one to pop on your trackers with "3m handicaps", which will hopefully prove fruitful once that avenue is explored further down the line.

Next weekend brings us the Fighting Fifth and Ladbroke Trophy Festival, plus some top class Irish racing too.

2020/21 National Hunt Season - 10 to follow

Published 8th October 2020.

As you can see it's been some time since I pushed the keys on here, but on the eve of the traditional "proper" jumps season curtain-raiser at Chepstow, I thought I'd give you all a few horses to keep an eye on over the coming campaign. As will become apparent quickly on here, I like to find horses across all levels, and enjoy midweek racing just as much as the big races, so we have horses rated from as low as 78 to 150!! There are two horses based across the Irish Sea as well. So, in alphabetical order, let's get into it.

Benevolentdictator (Gary Moore) - Official rating: 106 

This 6yo by Schiaparelli hasn't had a great deal of racing, but has shown signs of promise and in the shape of a horse who is well handicapped off 106. He went on my tracker after his debut in an Ascot bumper when keeping on past beaten horses under tender handling from Josh Moore. He went straight hurdling and again there were glimmers despite the wide margins he was beaten ultimately. We last saw him in January at Plumpton in his first handicap where they crawled along through the first two miles of the journey before quickening the tempo after the ninth hurdle. He got caught flat footed initially and to add insult to injury, made a mistake at the tenth, before running on steadily into fourth. The winner went on to post two very fair efforts in defeat afterwards, and the two directly ahead, the loveable mare Tambura and Fortunate George both won afterwards, so the form has worked out well. The handicapper dropped him for that and I'd like to think he can be very competitive this term off this mark, and given his size, chasing is certainly an option too going forward. It's also worth noting that the yard have had success with the family in the past.

Brandy Pad (Jennie Candlish) - Official rating: 78

If this horse doesn't win at least one race this season, I'll be baffled! He won an Irish PTP before having a very quiet spell in novice hurdles. He went straight chasing and in a novice handicap chase on 7th December 2019, he was backed from 25/1 into 7/2 before pulling up in the straight after travelling menacingly through the contest. Uttoxeter three weeks later wasn't too dissimilar before a small break and a trip to Musselburgh. In a small field, he was backed into favouritism beforehand and looked the likely winner two out despite a display littered with mistakes, before being headed and losing out by a length to Eagle Ridge. He is off 78 now but he strikes me as the sort of horse who could rattle off a sequence of wins as he can still run in 0-100 company for probably at least three wins. He's only a 6yo and if he brushes his jumping up a bit, his season could prove fruitful for all.

Dreamsundermyfeet (Martin Keighley) - No Official rating at time of writing

This lad is very much one for the future in staying handicaps. He has run twice post-lockdown in Uttoxeter in 2m4f maiden hurdles with promise in both styles. He was very rusty in the first of them when held up in rear and coming off the bridle at around halfway before staying on all the way to the line at the one pace into midfield in a seventeen runner field. He returned at the start of October in what I think is an above average maiden hurdles, with the front pair, both smart horses, pulling a long way clear of the remainder. He travelled much sweeter this time and was one of the last off the bridle and was one paced once they quickened but was still fifth of a big field. The fourth was The Triple Pillar who had been beaten narrowly at Warwick the run before so the form has some depth and I envisage this lad winning a staying handicap hurdle, or even a handicap chase before the season is out. Ground shouldn't be an issue either for this unexposed five year old.

Fil D'Ariane (Tom Symonds) - Official rating 115

The first of a couple of Tom Symonds runners on the list. The yard have had a bit more joy in the early stages of the season so far, after the successful link up between Tom and David Dennis, who now is alongside Tom after winding down his own operation in the past few months. I saw this gelding make his British debut at Southwell and was really taken by him physically beforehand, a well built sort who was only going to get better with time. He was beaten by Shantou Vow (a winner since) that day and Aidan Coleman was very complimentary afterwards. Following that run he had a wind operation and two further runs in novice company, despite having a mark after seven runs in France. You would be excused for thinking he was an old horse, but he's just a 5yo and his mark has dropped 5lbs in the space of those three runs and the extended break will have done him good physically. He should be able to find a race or two all being well.

Induno (David Pipe) - Official rating 115

I'm a big fan of this son of Flemensfirth, who runs in the colours of Ronnie Bartlett. He has won half of his four starts and could be a good bit ahead of the handicapper. He was a good second in his opening bumper at Warwick, before brushing aside the now 135 rated Mario De Pail with contempt at Ffos Las, quickening in bad ground, which tends to be a sign of a decent horse. He then went to Sedgefield and won on his hurdles debut beating some fair sorts, before being a well-beaten odds on favourite at the same venue on Boxing Day. There must have been a reason for that, whether it was the trip or something else, but in a recent stable tour, David Pipe inferred he is well thought of and is a "good work horse at home who will probably start off over hurdles". He's worth keeping on side.

Kaproyale (Olly Murphy) - No Official rating (Runs Chepstow 4.25 on Friday 9th October)

Kaproyale is a fine looking grey gelding who will have his second start at Chepstow tomorrow (9/10/20). He is not one to be backing in novice company I doubt, unless you have extra places, but it won't be long until he gets a mark and will hopefully make hay in handicap company. This outfit tend to get the three novice hurdles in pretty quick and this looks the case here too as Kaproyale made his debut on 30th September in a good maiden hurdle at Bangor, where he was given a quiet ride by Adrian Heskin but ultimately not beaten far. A step up in trip looks a plus going forward and I'll be intrigued to see what the handicapper says.

Mack The Man (Evan Williams) - Official rating 131

Mack The Man was certainly a big improver last term, after a reasonably innocuous start to his hurdling career. He started off last season with a cosy win in a 0-115 handicap hurdle at Warwick for which he received a 7lb rise in the handicap before sneaking into the December handicap hurdle at Sandown at the start of December 2019, where he won once again off a featherweight. After a couple of months to freshen up, he was holding a chance when brought down at the last in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Speaking to Isabel Williams, daughter of trainer Evan Williams, Mack The Man is going chasing and will be out in the next few weeks. He strikes me as a sort who will keep improving and the sky is the limit for him.

Montagne D'Argent (David Harry Kelly) - Official rating 109

It is a reasonably rare occurrence for me to include an Irish trained horse in one of these lists that you will not see at one of the big meetings, but this horse really caught my eye last term. I was particularly taken by the way he went through his race before being brought down at Limerick at the very end of 2019, and improved on that to be 2nd at Gowran Park. I expect him to be able to prove pretty competitive off his mark.

Tornado Flyer (Willie Mullins) - Official rating 150

Tornado Flyer was one of the horses from the Cheltenham Festival that caught my eye in the Graded races staying on late in the Marsh Novice Chase. He has a track record of a horse that might just be a touch below the top level over obstacles, being beaten less than ten lengths in three Grade 1s over hurdles and fences after winning a Grade 1 bumper at the Punchestown Festival. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise should this 7yo go and improve and be right in amongst the top dogs come the end of the season. The other element to him is that he potentially can slot in over two miles, two and a half miles and a fast three miles. He could just be the horse that emerges amongst the big boys this winter.

Williams Overture (Tom Symonds) - Official rating 94

This lad is definitely one to stick with for the long-term. He has contested one 'bumper'  and four maiden or novice hurdles, going off at 66/1 or higher on every occasion, but that doesn't tell the full story. He is another horse to transfer from David Dennis to Tom Symonds and is the sort of horse traditionally that Tom has done well with in the past and I envisage he might be able to do some damage off this low mark in staying handicap hurdles and chases. He is a raw, big lump of a horse and I imagine this 5yo son of Mahler would have taken plenty of getting fit for his seasonal and stable debut recently at Uttoxeter and there was enough in that effort to make me think he could be one to keep onside.

Two others to note that just missed the cut were Monkey Harris for Richenda Ford and Ladronne for Tjade Collier's yard. The former will not be out until the New Year and needs soft ground while the latter could be a nice handicap chaser in the North.

Once again a brilliant season awaits us, and despite everything that is going on in this world right now, I'm sure the sport can continue to put smiles on peoples' faces even if they can't be there in person to see the action on the track.

20 Jumpers To Follow for the 2014-15 season

The nights are drawing in, the leaves are turning orange and falling off the trees which can only mean one thing, top quality jump racing is on the horizon and as ever, I can't wait.
As regular readers of the blog will be aware, I compile a list of jumpers to follow which mainly comprises horses in my tracker or ones which caught my eye last season. There were six horses who just missed the cut and those six are:
Regal Encore (A Honeyball)
Merlin's Wish (M Keighley)
Kelvingrove (Jonjo O'Neill)
Goodwood Mirage (Jonjo O'Neill)
Clever Cookie (P Niven)
Jimmy The Jetplane (K Bailey)

It isn't that I think these horses won't be winning races (excluding Clever Cookie who doesn't look as though he will run this winter after a busy summer on the level), but maybe their targets were unclear to me or they are not particularly trustworthy.

However, let's move on to the list itself (in no particular order), I hope you enjoy reading it, pop them in your NagMe tracker (other trackers are available!) and hopefully make a few pounds from them as the season progresses.

1) Ballyalton - Ian Williams

Ballyalton - Gears to burn and a novice chaser of immense potential

As any of my twitter followers will testify, I love Ballyalton to bits and unfortunately for him, he bumped into Faugheen in the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival which stopped him gaining a really big prize. He needs good to soft ground ideally so his run behind Aubusson at New Year can be excused and after seeing him in the flesh at Newcastle and Southwell in the past, he will definitely jump a fence as he has plenty of scope and size. He has won a bad ground PTP (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKX3UoH_yOk) so should stay three miles no problem and I cannot wait to see him over larger obstacles.

2) O'Faolains Boy - Rebecca Curtis

O'Faolains Boy a real Gold Cup contender

O'Faolains Boy was a highlight of my Cheltenham Festival as my ante post wager on him landed in the RSA Chase under a great ride by Barry Geraghty. He reminds me of a classier Synchronised in the Gold Cup the way he went through that race, having to be nudged and pushed along at regular intervals but always finding generously for his partner although his jumping wasn't always great. He ran badly at Aintree after that but he had a very hard race at Cheltenham and at Ascot prior to that, and I think he was also unsuited by the speedy nature of the track at Aintree. Tracks such as Cheltenham suit him better, and it'll be interesting to see where he starts off this season, with races like the Charlie Hall and Betfair Chase obvious starting points. Hopefully, he will develop into a live Gold Cup contender come March.

3) Buywise - Evan Williams

For me he chucked away the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase at the Festival with bad errors at important times, but he made amends by returning to the jumping holy grail that is Cheltenham by taking the Silver Trophy with any amount in hand despite getting out of his ground with errors. His current BHA mark would get him into the Paddy Power Gold Cup off a weight of around 10st 8lb in recent years, which would be extremely tempting for connections, who were slightly favouring a Hennessy bid instead, although personally I think he could be a real player in both races. He's only had eight rules races and could feasibly stilll improve plenty this season which makes him very exciting indeed. As a long term target, a race like the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown could be right up his street.

4) No More Heroes - Gordon Elliott

I don't think I've seen a more impressive bumper victory than No More Heroes destroying his field by 39 lengths at Leopardstown last Christmas, and if you haven't seen it before, then I would definitely advise you to take a look. That was a two and a half mile bumper and he followed up in a hot race at Naas in early February. He has had a run over hurdles (a respectable fourth before the NHF race victories) and is a PTP winner, so he will definitely have a big future. He is hurdling this season and there are some very bullish noises coming out of the Elliott camp about him. He looks an Albert Bartlett type.

5) Mr Grey - Ben Case

This a very dark one for you. Mr Grey has only had one rules start for the upwardly mobile yard of Ben Case, and that came at Kempton at November behind subsequent Challow Hurdle winner Captain Cutter where he travelled like a dream and led turning in before folding tamely and finishing fifth. I'm not sure whether he sustained an injury in the race itself but he showed plenty of promise regardless. He finished eight lengths behind Persian War winner Timesremembered in an Irish PTP before winning one in April 2013 before moving to the Case yard. Hopefully he makes it to the track this season, and if he does, then I'd be sure he would pick up a race or two for us.

6) Red Devil Boys - John Ferguson

John Ferguson has exciting times ahead with Red Devil Boys

This lad is a machine! I have waited a long time for him to reappear and this season could be one that really propels both this horse and his trainer, who has a very nice set of horses, into the upper echelons of the jumps game. He has been so impressive on all his runs, even when he was beaten in his first bumper to the very tough Kaysersburg, before slamming a fair field again at Doncaster, prior to winning with any amount in hand again at Town Moor on his hurdles debut in December 2012. I asked Denis O'Regan how this horse was one day at Southwell and he replied "He had an op but I effing hope he's ok as we like him an awful lot". That to me spoke volumes and whether it be hurdling or chasing, I can't wait for him to run again.

7) Kudu Shine - Richard Woollacott

Kudu Shine is 3-5 in the point sphere and caught a few eyes on his first hurdle start at Exeter before disappointing when favourite at the same venue on bottomless ground next time. He then ran respectably at Wincanton before running a belter at a big price at Cheltenham on good ground at the April meeting. If there is any good in the going description, then Kudu Shine is well handicapped off 114, but he looks one to ignore on deep ground.

8) Rydon Pynes - Martin Hill

Rydon Pynes did us proud last year in the jumpers to follow list with two wins, a second and a third from five starts. Whether he stays hurdling or goes over the larger obstacles this season I'm not sure, but whichever they decide to do, he will acquit himself well whatever. He needs three miles and acts on all ground, although proper good to soft probably suits him ideally. He has a mark of 131 now which is fair enough given his achievements thus far and he will remain very competitive off that.

9) The Ramblin Kid - Micky Hammond

The Ramblin Kid is closely related to former top chaser Master Of The Hall, who is also now trained by Micky Hammond and enjoying a mini revival this summer over hurdles. Anyway, as for The Ramblin Kid, he had five starts in Irish bumpers for Charlie Swan before moving across the Irish Sea, where his first run over timber came at Wetherby where he was flattered to finish six lengths behind Red Sherlock, but then got a masterful tactical front running ride by Jason Maguire to win at Newcastle on Eider Chase day to win by seven lengths. He then struggled to give weight away to a couple of smart northern horses when fourth at Hexham and could be one to watch this season, again either over hurdles or fences.

10) Trustan Times - Tim Easterby

Trustan Times carrying top weight to win the Fixed Brush at Haydock

Trustan Times is my idea of a long range Grand National fancy after two fantastic runs in the Spring, a very close fourth at Cheltenham in the Pertemps Final, finishing a neck behind Pineau De Re giving him 4lbs. He followed that up with a great third in the Scottish National after making a terrible error at the first fence. He excels in big fields and races such as the Welsh National and the English equivalent could be on his radar this term, although a third try in the Fixed Brush hurdle on Betfair Chase day at Haydock may be a starting point.

11) Modus - Robert Stephens

Modus was one of the leading English fancies for the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham after easy wins at Exeter on debut and then at Prestbury Park subsequently, but after being posted wide and pulling hard the whole way, he didn't get home and it was a similar story at Aintree after that. There could be a school of thought that he doesn't quite see out two miles, but the way he finished in his Cheltenham win on New Year's Day suggests he certainly wasn't stopping at the end despite bottomless ground. He could develop into a very good novice hurdler if he does learn to settle and jump well and looks to have gears.

12) Celtic Agent - Phil Kirby

Celtic Agent was a very easy winner of a Southwell bumper in early March after having had eighteen months off the course and a stable move from David O'Meara to Phil Kirby. The six year old son of Kayf Tara was then taken to Aintree for another bumper and he failed to give away 6lbs to Echo Springs who won for trainer John Quinn, but he was only beaten a shade over two lengths. There could be lots more to come over timber from this horse and I, alongside some good judges I have spoken to think he could be quite decent.

13) Martello Tower - Margaret Mullins

Martello Tower successful at Killarney last time

Martello Tower is an exciting horse for owner Barry Connell in Ireland. He was a huge eyecatcher when fourth in a Listed Novice Hurdle which his first run in that sphere, when flying home from a long way off the pace. He then reverted back to bumpers again regained the winning thread under Robbie McNamara before waiting for the new season to start before winning a hurdle under Danny Mullins at Killarney. He isn't flashy and will never win by too far, but he is very talented and will remain a novice for this season.

14) No Deal - Lucinda Russell

No Deal is a proper, old fashioned National Hunt horse who, if retaining his ability after an injury lay-off, could be a flagship horse for Lucinda Russell this season. A friend of mine and a very good judge Mark Rowntree (@uptheirons007 on Twitter) has this horse on the top of his jumpers to follow list (http://markrowntree07.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/scotland-north-national-hunt-10-to-follow-201415/) and I completely agree with him. He is held in high regard by the team at Arlary and is certainly one to keep on side in Northern novice chases on bad ground.

15) Heronshaw - Henry Daly

Hopefully Heronshaw will make it to the track this season at some point because if he does, then he is yet another to look forward to. He had no idea what he was doing in the preliminaries at Uttoxeter on debut, and was green in the race itself but showed a turn of foot on deep ground to win well. The over-riding impression seeing him beforehand was that he needed time and a fence to be seen at his best. He has a mark of 125 over hurdles, and he would still be very competitive off that mark, but he may well go chasing. Either way, if he runs, then he should pick up a prize or two this season.

16) Blakemount - Sue Smith

Blakemount should be a horse that goes right to the top of the staying novice chase division this year, hopefully avoiding Ballyalton!! I saw him run behind Ballyalton at Newcastle where he performed very well, before winning at the same course just before Christmas and then narrowly beaten in a terrific dual with Urban Hymn up the Doncaster home straight in a Grade 2 on Skybet Chase day. He jumps and stays really well and acts on all ground, so what's not to like?! He reminds me of Royal Emperor a few years ago from the same yard in that sense, a horse who was second in the RSA to Rule Supreme.

17) Baradari - Venetia Williams

Unlike a few horses I have spoken about so far in this post, Baradari probably is better with plenty of juice in the ground. He ran very well in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, flying up the hill for a close fifth after being badly outpaced. He was then creeping into contention at Aintree before falling four out and Sandown I think was a bit of an afterthought and he was down the field off top weight. The Greatwood Hurdle on deep ground could be a target but he is a nice horse who should continue to pay his way.

18) Saints And Sinners - Mick Easterby

Saints And Sinners really caught my eye at the end of last season in a contest won by Streams Of Whiskey when finishing fifth. After being well backed prior to the off and travelling particularly well throughout in the rear division, before picking runners off all the way up the straight without threatening the places. I'm convinced he is thrown in off a mark of 113 over fences, and remains a novice for this season. I would be baffled if he couldn't win at least one off that mark.

19) Alcala - Paul Nicholls

Paul Nicholls likes Alcala an awful lot

Alcala was a big eyecatcher in the Adonis hurdle when Paul Nicholls warned that this horse owned by Andrea and Graham Wylie may come on for the run, and it certainly appeared that way in the race itself when after travelling powerfully, he struggled to quicken initially before keeping on to be fourth behind Activial. This is a quote from Nicholls in the Guardian a week or so ago about him "We decided to keep him as a novice for this season and he’s definitely a horse to follow. We like him a lot."
That'll be enough for me!

20) Henrybrowneyes - Ian Williams

A very dark one to end with.This huge son of Goldmark caught the eye when fifth in a jumpers bumper at Kempton on debut before a laboured effort at Stratford. He then ran a bit better at Chepstow on his final run last season behind Simon Squirrel, who is now with Paul Nicholls and I think this lad looks like a handicap hurdle prospect so a bit of patience would be advised initially, before hopefully he rewards us once he gets a mark in due course.

I hope you have enjoyed the preview, and if you have any feedback, good or bad, either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky,
Will

24/5/14 Selections across all cards

It's another very busy Saturday of racing coming up and on top of that, there is a monsterous Scoop6 to have a pop at, with £15 million across both the win and bonus funds. I think personally that everyone who knows a bit about racing should just have a go for the sake of a mere £2, and you never know, you might just land the big pot.
In this post, I'll preview those Scoop6 races and give my thoughts about all the other meetings of the day, including the Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh.

Beverley:

It is one of Beverley's biggest days of the year with the Two Year Old Trophy taking centre stage at 3.40. In that race, I think Midterm Break might be the one to plump for for David Barron and jockey David Allan. He was beaten narrowly by Roudee on debut, before that horse was second in the Lily Agnes at Chester, and then broke his maiden at Southwell last time on the Fibresand easily.
It'll be fascinating to see how Basem gets on in the 4.15 for Saeed Bin Suroor and Silvestre De Sousa. He was the winner of the Wood Ditton at Newmarket on debut; but he is still entered in the Derby in a fortnight's time and if he has any aspirations about taking up that engagement, he will have to win this, and win it handsomely.
Of the rest of the card, I thought Make On Madam would probably break her maiden in the 2.30 and Maybeme could be each way value in the opener at 2.00.

Cartmel:

Yum Yum, Sticky Toffee Pudding, can only mean Cartmel!!!

Cartmel is back!! If you haven't been to this little gem of a track in the Lake District, I would highly recommend it. The novice chase on the card at 7.55 is a corker, with Ann Hamilton's stable star Runswick Royal trying to win over fences at the second attempt after going down by a nose to Master Of The Game at Kelso last month. Sultana Belle and Swaledale Lad, both previous chasing winners are in the line up together with former decent Flat horse Captain Brown and Tim Vaughan's Elsafeer. Guanciale looks interesting racing on decent ground in the 6.50 race, and if you are looking for a back and lay back horse, then look no further than Gold Chain in the 6.20, who traded very short on his first hurdles start in particular.

Catterick:

There are a couple of Scoop6 races from Catterick, with the first of them coming up at 2.50, which is Leg 2. I like a couple in here that are at double figure prices at the time of writing, in the shape of Showboating and Joe Eile. Showboating is a horse I've followed for some time and he certainly doesn't owe me anything, with a few wins and plenty of placed efforts to his name lately. This style of race suits his hold up tactics well and with the likes of Dr Red Eye, Evanescent and Henry The Aviator all likely to go forward and I can't see him being out the first three or four. Joe Eile is a well handicapped Irish recruit for John Quinn and shaped with some promise on two of his last three starts, and I'm willing to forgive his last run as nothing much came from off the pace and he didn't seem to like Ripon that much either.
The 3.25 is the other race that forms part of the Scoop6, and it looks as though Day Of The Eagle is primed to strike for Mick Easterby. He is a well handicapped horse who ran much better last time and there isn't much in this race to worry me.
Finally, in the 5.45, I really want to take on Sitting Pritty with Bondi Beach Babe, a filly who has been catching my eye and this looks her easiest opportunity to date, as long as she breaks on terms.

TCurragh:

Kingman looks very hard to beat in Ireland

In the Irish 2000 Guineas, Kingman looks like a good thing on the strength of his form in the English equivalent just three weeks ago, although Shifting Power's connections may feel that they can make up two lengths on him this time, and the price differential between the two is too vast. I thought Big Time was the one of the Irish contingent that could run well, as he isn't a million miles away from War Command on a line through Sudirman and his trainer was adamant that he'd be a high class three year old, so at around 20/1, he could run well.

Ffos Las:

It looks a pretty average card to be honest at Ffos Las. I'd chance a small stakes Lucky 15 on Anteros in the 6.35, Sir Mattie in the 7.40 who has Paul Moloney back aboard tomorrow, Princesse Fleur in the 8.15 and Irish raider Countdown in the bumper at 8.45.

Goodwood:

Pether's Moon winning at Goodwood last season, and must go well at 2.20

Leg 3 of the Scoop6 comes up on the Sussex Downs at 2.55, and it is a very open three year old handicap over seven furlongs. Penny Drops had been quite frustrating until her demolition job at Lingfield recently, and maybe her name is what is actually happening to her now she knows how to win. Willy Brennan could be her main danger.
Earlier on in the card, I thought Pether's Moon would be hard to beat now that he has a 3lb weight pull with Gatewood from last time out, together with good track form. Mirsaale could go well against him for James Tate. In the opener, I thought Quick Wit, who seemed to really enjoy racing in Britain last summer could go well at a decent price in the hands of Ahmed Ajtebi. However, the best bet on the Downs looks to be Mon Brav in the 4.40, who won this corresponding race last year for trainer Brian Ellison and comes back on a 2lb lower mark and seemingly running into form after a respectable run in fourth last time.

Haydock:

The opening race at Haydock is a wide open stayers handicap over two miles, and I thought Huff And Puff could be a bit of value for trainer Venetia Williams, better known for her jumpers. This horse did win over hurdles recently and hopefully there won't be too much rain, as that would harm his chance.
2.05 brings about the first leg of the Scoop6, and hopefully Run With Pride can win here to keep plenty of dreams alive, at least until the second leg! I was in the paddock when he made his winning debut at Doncaster and trainer Derek Shaw said afterwards that he "could be the best I've ever had", and duly entered him for the July Cup at Newmarket. He is seriously well thought of and I like him a lot.
I don't have much of a view in the Temple Stakes but the old boy Kingsgate Native must play a part if previous years are anything to go by.
Then we have Leg 4 of the Scoop6 at 3.10, and I found this Listed fillies sprint a tough puzzle to solve. March ran well and was a shade unlucky in a race that's working out well at Bath last time, but she wouldn't want any rain. Perfect Blessings is one that could go well, as she is completely unexposed and Clive Cox has had his horses in really good nick of late.
You have to wonder how many people will still be in the Scoop6 come the final leg at 3.45, if any, but I'm sure Musselburgh scorer Bilimbi will prove very popular for Ryan Moore. If one was going to go well at a big price, it may well just be Hot Coffee for Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote. She was very very impressive on debut here last July and ran okay in a Group 3 at Deauville after that. She ran pretty well at Chester on her reappearance after racing keenly on soft ground and I feel 20/1 is far too big.

Any feedback? Either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky,
Will