It is "silly season" at Southwell, with racing multiple times in a week in recent times, with the course regulars out in force. After a frustrating Thursday of crossbar hitting, Friday's card yet again poses a few puzzles to work out so hopefully we can solve them starting with a three year old handicap.
4.15: 0-75 handicap for three year olds over 1m
Despite the small field, further down the line this contest could prove quite a decent event for future winners. Blue Hero heads the market for Mick Appleby and Andrew 'Midge' Mullen, and is definitely the one they have to beat after a very good second place finish on his first start for current connections at Wolverhampton behind Final Voyage, himself rated 89 before that race, and also not getting the smoothest of passages. He has proven his liking for this venue on his final start for Michael Bell when third and cheekpieces are applied for the first time. His four rivals are yet to try the surface, although both Smart Qibili and Deep Impression are bred to enjoy the conditions, with the former arguably the more interesting given his strong travelling nature and American dirt pedigree. However, despite his skinny odds, and also in receipt of weight from both those opponents, Blue Hero can get off the mark. It may also be noteworthy that the same trainer and owners combined to win this last year with Merryweather.
4.45: 0-65 handicap over 7f
A race in which good recent form is brought to the table by Greek Kodiac, trained by Kevin Foy, who has made a good start to his training career after being assistant to James Fanshawe for many years. He won at Newcastle last time but now tackles Fibresand for the first time, a comment which can be made about Luna Wish after her Wolverhampton second last time out. On the assumption Motawaafeq won't run after his exertions on Thursday, Al Batal and Daafy bring placed form into the mix, with the latter my preferred runner of the two after a very promising second over 1m here last time. He is a huge horse who may well have needed that run and with the apprentice of the moment Laura Pearson aboard again together with the in-form stable, must play a part. I selected Six Strings as one of my five to follow for the All-Weather season for Betway (see here), and he now returns to his favoured Fibresand for the first time since joining John Quinn and interestingly cheekpieces are re-applied for the first time since January 2019 so he could easily bounce back to form. I'll take those two against the field but if there is any money for Mayson Mount, that must be noted given shrewd connections and pedigree.
5.15: 0-85 handicap over 6f
Now, the difficulty of this is at the time of writing, both Samovar (winner) and Giogiobbo (sixth), at the top of the market, both ran on Thursday, so there remains an element of doubt as to whether they will turn up. Samovar has ran quickly back to back in the past and would be the most likely to reappear. Thrave won a seller here last time, showing his first sign of life for around eighteen months and in the process gave Frederick Larson his first winner. He would obviously have a chance, but whether he can back that up is a huge question mark. Oakenshield certainly catches the eye on second start for Linda Stubbs, primarily because of the booking of Hollie Doyle. He could be ahead of his mark given how lightly raced he is and certainly has the pedigree to act well on the track. I'm going to end up throwing a few pennies each way on Katheefa here for Ruth Carr and Jimmy Sullivan. Ruth's horses are in the best form they've been in for some time and despite some desparate form figures lately, only one of those was here and that was over 5f (outpaced completely). However he is 4-8 over this course and distance, including a win in this race last year off a 6lb higher mark. Interestingly, a tongue tie is applied for the first time as well.
5.45: 0-60 handicap over 2m
Not the strongest heat in the world but cases can be made for a few of them, with Artistic Streak probably the horse with the most solid recent form. A good recent run at Wolverhampton came two starts after a course and distance win, when showing a great attitude. Cheap Jack returns after a short break for the evergreen Ron Thompson and Paul Mulrennan, who rode this lad to victory over 1m4f in October. The trip is definitely a question mark for him. Lady Camelot and Restive could well go well if showing their best Southwell form, but if you forced a selection out of me it'd probably be Irish Minister for Luke Morris. He is yet to win at Southwell but has some fair efforts in defeat, and should they go hard up front, he will keep plodding on.
6.15: Novice Stakes (3yo+) over 6f
A novice in which the standard is set by the 68 rated Kevin The Minion after a second place finish here last time out, but there are a couple of dangerous opponents. Ghost Rider cost £55k and now makes his debut for Mark Johnston and has not got to be a world beater to land this one. Time Frame however has the benefit of experience after a debut run at Wolverhampton, and the James Tate runners are always to be feared at this venue. I'll plump for Time Frame as a selection, but I won't be having a bet.
6.45: 0-55 handicap over 1m6f
A low-grade staying handicap in which Heron will be at the top of the market for Brett Johnson, a yard who have been in great form for the last two months now, tries to win back to back races after a comfortable success three weeks ago. He is certainly bound to go very close, with Shine Baby Shine, a course regular and three time course winner a big danger. Amourie is yet to win in seventeen tries but did run well in fourth here last time in what was a strong race for the grade and no doubt will give her running again. Mister Universum ran well behind Heron over course and distance when fourth and could run well behind him again as I can't see Heron being beaten provided he turns up in the same form again.
7.15: 0-65 three year old only handicap over 5f
Not the easiest of races to work out at the end of the card, and one that I won't spend too much time on. The Gloaming has been a work in progress so far and has gradually improved run by run for a shrewd operation in Iain Jardine, who also has a good record at the track. She is the one I like here but I definitely fear Professor Galant, who already has three Southwell stamps in the passport. Vitalline is a rare raider from the Rod Millman yard, and the booking of Richard Kingscote and first time headgear could point the way to a big effort. Similar comments apply to the locally trained True Contendor for the very shrewd David Brown. A big market move would not be out of the equation for the latter.
As for best bets, I would select Heron as the nap and Katheefa can run very well in the 5.15, a race he won twelve months ago.
I'll be back again tomorrow with a look ahead to Saturday's racing, weather permitting!!
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