Wednesday, 21 August 2013

York Ebor Festival Day 2 Preview

It's Yorkshire Oaks day on Thursday afternoon on the Knavesmire and it looks a great renewal. Also, one of our dark horses Our Obsession runs in the Listed Galtres Stakes plus a Group 2 for two year old fillies in the Lowther Stakes. In this preview, I will look in detail at the three races I have just mentioned and hopefully find some winners.

2.30 - Lowther Stakes (6f G2 - 9 run)
Can Lucky Kristale defy a 3lb penalty?
A race in which I don't think many can be considered too much. Lucky Kristale ran reasonably well at Royal Ascot before routing a good field at Newmarket. She has to carry a 3lb penalty for winning that Group 2 last time, but is clear on the ratings so should go very close once again. However, J Wonder is the one to be with here for Brian Meehan and Martin Lane after a taking win on the July course last time out. It is rare for a Brian Meehan horse to win first time out, and this filly did just that, before winning readily in a good nursery last time. The main threat might be Kaiulani, who ran very well at Royal Ascot despite greenness. She has had a break since and comes here fresher than most. Also, she is up to six furlongs here which is only going to help and I think she is slightly overpriced at double figure odds.

3.40 - Yorkshire Oaks (1m4f G1 - 8 run)
"Listen, I think she is the one Rishi!!!"
A fantastic race to look forward to that is for sure. The Fugue clearly had excuses at Sandown when scoping dirty in the days afterwards. However, that is a pretty big cloud to have over her head on the run up to such a big race. Wild Coco didn't beat a great deal at Goodwood but did it nicely. I just think she is ever so slightly vulnerable to an improving younger horse as she has to give weight away to those. Secret Gesture has a decent chance here, especially as Jamie Spencer said he rode her last time out to "be balanced on the track rather than ride her to win the race". A slightly odd statement I know, but she was only worn down late on that day, so I'd give her another chance. However, my leading fancy is Venus De Milo for Aiden O'Brien. Ryan Moore gets the leg up as Joseph can't do the weight, but that is no negative. I have been very taken by her turn of foot in her performances this year, especially the last twice when second in the Irish Oaks, and at Cork last time out when routing a Listed field with the minimum of fuss.

4.20 - Galtres Stakes (1m4f Listed - 12 run)
Our Obsession to step up in this Listed race
A Listed race for fillies and mares here, and our dark horse Our Obsession takes her chance at a bit of black type. I think she will be very, very competitive. She was impressive at this course a few weeks ago in handicap company over two furlongs shorter, so the step up in trip will be no problem. She was entered in all the big fillies races and Classics at the start of the season so is clearly well thought of. None of the others actually scare me, but I respect Say and Star Lahib.

Any feedback? Either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky
Will

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