Ebor Meeting Day 4 Preview

What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, and it isn't over yet!! The centre piece of the Ebor festival is of course The Ebor itself, which is run at 3.50 over a mile and three quarters. In this preview, I will look at 4 races from York plus anything else from other meetings that catches the eye on this typically hectic Saturday racing schedule.

2.05 - City Of York Stakes (7f - 9 run)

Cristiforo Colombo has his easiest test for quite a while here.

This looks like a really good opportunity for Cristiforo Colombo to get back in the winner's enclosure for Ryan Moore and Aiden O'Brien. To be honest, I think he is too big at around the 2/1, 9/4 mark, considering he was not disgraced in the Guineas when going off a 10/1 shot, and is now in Listed company. The slight issue is that he has only won the once, and that was on debut, but I don't think he is ungenuine by any means. I reckon that if he replicates any of his last three runs, he wins. Rex Imperator looked rejuvenated in the Stewards Cup when winning it well, and I guess this race looks the most obvious place to go after that. I have a bit of a worry about the trip after seeing him run over seven at Doncaster earlier on in the season where he travelled beautifully and didn't see it out as well as Diescentric who battled back past him to win. Glory Awaits could rout these on a going day, but who knows whether this will be one of those, and the fact remains that his only career win in eleven starts was a 50/1 maiden win at Haydock. Sirius Prospect could go well for Dean Ivory, again if he can show as few of his quirks as possible. But in summary, I think Cristiforo Colombo is nap material here.

2.40 - Melrose Stakes (1m6f - 16 run)

Dark horse Mister Impatience could go well here at a price.

This looks a very difficult handicap to solve indeed. I was lucky enough to be at this meeting last year and saw Guarantee win very nicely from Biographer. Great Hall the top weight looks to be on a massive upward curve and is certainly respected here despite top weight. The favourite is Havana Cooler for Ryan Moore and Luca Cumani, but on the evidence of his run at Goodwood last time out,he lacks a gear. That would be a concern here in a race that demands a bit of class. I think Divergence will struggle to make all like he did at Ffos Las last time out. Irish raider Dark Crusader could go well, but I'm siding with Mister Impatience for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning. With more rain likely to fall, his case becomes twice as convincing because he's actually dropping in grade here after running in the Goodwood Cup, where he ran very well up until half a mile from home, where his stamina hit a brick wall. This course and distance look ideal for him, and as I say, if the heavens open, I'd really fancy him strongly each way at around 16/1.

3.50 - Betfred Ebor (1m6f - 19 run)

Sheikhzayedroad...will the draw scupper his hopes?

I cannot wait for this race to begin! Opinion is the favourite at the time of writing and must be respected after a luckless passage last time out at Haydock under Kieren Fallon. However, I don't consider him to be value whatsoever. Tiger Cliff must go well, providing the ground doesn't ease too much. Ted Veale is one I do fancy for Tony Martin, who has plotted his route to this race with meticulous precision. He won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival under Bryan Cooper in soft ground, and has been kept on the go through the summer with this race in mind. He must be feared by all, but he's not gone unnoticed that's for sure. Sheikhzayedroad is the one I will plump for with most confidence despite the wide draw. He acts with juice in the ground, and is a hold up performer so can be dropped in from his wide draw. Martin Lane has struck up a good relationship with him and I think he will run a big race. I have followed Caravan Rolls On for a good while but he is becoming frustrating and should have won last time. I will chuck a couple of bigger priced runners in the mix for value purposes, Tropical Beat and Saptapadi.

 

Tropical Beat (right) gets nabbed at Haydocklast year by Sir Graham Wade.

Tropical Beat is trained by David O'Meara who has his horses in fine fettle this week, and he hasn't had Tropical Beat in his yard too long since leaving John Gosden. He ran a good race at Musselburgh on his stable debut and comeback after nearly a year off behind Party Line, who ran such a valiant race in defeat here on Wednesday. I think he will go close. Saptapadi has been an old favourite of mine for a long while, so there is a touch of sentimentality associated with this selection. However, he does like York and likes a fast pace over this trip, which will be the case tomorrow. He was fifth in this behind stablemate Moyenne Corniche in 2011 off an 11lb higher mark than today so that side of things all adds up nicely. I just think he could stay on into a place at a juicy price.

5.35 - Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Stakes (5f - 15 run)

Threes Grand running Moviesta to a length at Doncaster in April

A tricky handicap to finish the festival, but I like one quite strongly in this for trainer Scott Dixon. The horse in question is Threes Grand who has useful apprentice Tim Clark in the saddle. He ran an eyecatching race at Doncaster last weekend when slightly checked in his run a furlong out before staying on well for fourth under Jamie Mackay. Jamie may have been a little rusty as he's only had 46 rides this year, with just 2 winners. Tim Clark however has a very good Turf record in 2013, 5-19 with a healthy level stakes profit. This lad ran Moviesta, a subsequent Group 2 winner to a length at Donny in April off a mark of 88, and is 10lbs lower here so should surely figure. The dangers would contain New Fforest and Cosmic Chatter, but I think Threes Grand could be a very good each way bet tomorrow.

Elsewhere?:

I am looking forward to seeing how Mecca's Angel gets on in the Nursery at York at 4.25. She hacked up at Southwell last time in a very fast time, and it was telling that her trainer Michael Dods came to the Nottinghamshire track that night to see her run.
At Goodwood, Valen could run a huge race in the opener at 2.20, a Group 3 for fillies, after a rout at Ffos Las last time out. The feature races though are at 2.55 and 3.30. The 2.55 is a seven furlong handicap with 19 set to go to post. I would really fancy Pythagorean if he was drawn better, but James Doyle will have his work cut out from stall 18. Jack's Revenge, Shebebi and Mabait are others to consider. The 3.30 should go the way of Afsare providing he goes in the stalls okay.
It could pay to do a "John Gosden win double" at Newmarket with progressive pair Fledged (3.20) and Willow Beck (5.05).

David Wachman - Hopefully the man to train a winner at The Curragh.

Finally, The Curragh host a really good card, headlined by War Command in the 4.20. It is not often I'd fancy a newcomer in a sales race, but Insight, who runs in the 3.45 is one of those. He is trained by David Wachman, who trained his sire Bushranger, and the owners had a winner last week at Dundalk in maiden company also by Bushranger. I think it is telling that this lad lines up here on debut, as many of the ones who have runs under their belts haven't achieved a huge amount.

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Be lucky,
Will