Friday, 4 January 2013

Welsh National Preview

The rearranged Welsh National at Chepstow is the biggest Welsh race in the calendar, and is run over 3 miles and 5 furlongs, which is two complete circuits of the undulating left handed course.

The favourite is the Welsh trained Teaforthree, who is ably assisted by Tony McCoy, who guided Synchronised to victory in this race in 2010. He won the four miler at the Cheltenham festival in March, and has returned this season with two reasonable runs, first at Cheltenham under top weight, then in the Hennessy at Newbury, where he finished a respectable sixth, and not knocked about. He has a fair weight, and has course form figures of: 2311. He is very much the one to beat.

As for dangers high in the market, Michel Le Bon is the mount of Ruby Walsh. The biggest issue is his jumping, and he hasn't won a chase for just over three years. He is fragile and I'm opposing him. Universal Soldier has always shaped as though this sort of test would suit, and his comeback run at Haydock should he had trained on and continued his progression, and with Wayne Hutchinson aboard, must go well.

I don't particularly like Viking Blond, who can get worked up at the start, like he did last year and I can't have him. Sona Sasta, ridden by Mikey Ennis, who is bidding to become the first amateur to win the race has a chance. He is best fresh though and previous runs at this sort of trip suggest he may well be a non stayer.

Giles Cross is a high class horse, but his trainer hasn't had a winner since his yard reopened after a bout of equine herpes, and that's a big concern leading into this, added to the fact he hasn't had a start this season. Monbeg Dude could go well after his win at Cheltenham under Jamie Moore, today replaced by the master of the hold-up ride Paul Carberry, and if he can sustain his rhythm like he did at Cheltenham, there's no reason why he shouldn't go well.

Soll for me though is the best value each way play in this, a horse who jumps well and loves testing ground. He stays well and ran very well in the Hennessy considering his trainer Jo Hughes said 'he wasn't properly ready' for that particular race. 12/1 looks a knocking each way play. The other one is Incentivise, a dual course winner who I have always thought could run well in a race such as this. He is 8lbs out the handicap, which is a concern, but with Killian Moore in the saddle could go well.

I hope you have enjoyed this preview, and any feedback either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Be lucky,
Will

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