Friday, 11 January 2013

Saturday 12th January Preview

Warwick hold by far there biggest jumps meeting of the year on Saturday, with the Classic Chase and a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle the main events. Kempton have the Lanzarote Hurdle as their feature, whilst Wetherby also host another Saturday fixture.

To start, we will have a look at the Classic Chase, where Pete The Feat bids to make it six out of six since a move to Team Longsdon in the summer. He has gone up 40lbs for his five victories, which would be a bit of a concern, but he does seem to stay well and you wouldn't bet against him scoring again. Conversely, his run has to end at some point, and this big rise in grade may just find him out.

But what's going to beat him? Restless Harry perhaps? A high class staying hurdler who struggled over fences initially, before a confidence boosting win at Newbury last time. I still don't think he is a natural over fences, and they will go off pretty quick here which may not help. Bradley is my most solid selection by far here though. He is a very strong stayer, and the form of his second at Cheltenham behind Monbeg Dude in November is very strong indeed. A test like this is much better than his run last time, where he got outpaced and made a fair few errors before staying on up the hill. He shouldn't have that to worry about this time, and should go very close indeed.

Value hunters could do much worse than look at top weight Auroras Encore, whose trainer Sue Smith has only had thee runners at the Midlands track in the past five seasons. He is now a pound lower than when he finished a head second to Merigo in the Scottish Grand National in April, proving he enjoys a real stamina test. He likes to sit handy and should outrun his big odds of around 20/1 as I write. Rigadin De Beauchene should run well too for in form connections.

The Warwick card kicks off at 12.40 with a tricky handicap hurdle, where I like the chances of both Tresor De Bontee and Harris Garden. Tresor De Bontee was an easy winner at Hereford when last seen, and created a big impression on me that day. He again faces two miles here, but must go well. Harris Garden is on handicap debut in this particular race, and is one I have always thought would be one to watch when he did go into handicaps. He certainly has ability and a mark of 102 is workable.

The 1.15 looks the ideal sort of contest for Eastlake, a horse who I am convinced is well handicapped, but only at two miles, nothing more. He is 6-16 in his career, all his wins over two miles and only two defeats over two miles in his career, equalling six out of eight. The danger is Kapga De Cerisy.

The 1.50 looks between Highland Lodge and Rocky Creek. The Pertemps Qualifier at 2.25 looks tricky, but I fancy Ely Brown, last years second to go one better this time. He has since moved yards to Charlie Longsdon, but still retains his ability and has won and been gallant in defeat twice this term. For me, he has a big each way chance in a competitive race.

The Grade 2 Leamington Novices Hurdle at 3.00 features The New One, a high class bumper horse who has been impressive hurdling to date, against horses you would say maybe a step behind him on the Cheltenham ladder. He has won here as well, which helps and should make it three out of three over timber. Dursey Sound and Hold Court look the main dangers.

Over to Kempton now, where there is perfect jumping ground. Tetlami makes his chase debut in the 12.55, a horse that I have always thought would make a chaser. Kie is the one to worry him, a horse who likes to dominate on flat right handed tracks.

The 1.30 novice hurdle looks really nice, with Bucks Bond, Cloudy Copper and Hold On Julio likely to feature highly in the market. I have been waiting for Atriptomilan to reappear after a run full of promise at Hereford four weeks ago. This better ground will definitely suit him and it'll be fascinating to see how he gets on.

The feature is the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at 2.40, and I like a couple each way for this fiercely competitive contest. Oscara Dara looks quite a well handicapped horse at present, especially after his win at the Punchestown Festival in April. The race that keeps springing to mind is that facile win at Sandown last season on his stable debut: he has always been exciting and a bit of a 'sexy' horse. He tried chasing last time, and ran close behind Cantlow, a very good horse in his own right. Barry Geraghty also rides which is an added bonus, back over hurdles off a mark of 140.

If Oscar Prairie can build on his pleasing return to form at Wincanton last week, then he could be overpriced. He is a course and distance winner, and has the services of good conditional Tom Garner taking a valuable seven pounds off his back.

The 3.50 looks a nice race too. Forgotten Voice is unbeaten so far in two hurdles starts. Switched Off is well known as a very, very smooth traveller who finds nothing off the bridle  as he proved the last two times he ran . Cousin Khee and Laterly are both quite well handicapped as well, so the market will tell you more.

Wetherby also go for seven races, starting at 12.30 with a cracking novice hurdle. Many Clouds is the one to beat, with some high class form in the book behind Gevrey Chambertin before winning at Ascot. Up And Go and Shotavodka are by no means out of it and are very nice prospects for the future.

I think Gormanstown Cuckoo is a really interesting runner in the handicap hurdle at 2.50 for Michael Blake and James Reveley. The yard are 2 from 3 at the course and James Reveley has never ridden for this stable. He has his best form on a left handed flat course, such as Aintree or here and certainly stays the trip.

One final runner of interest is in the closing bumper, Weekend Lady for Venitia Williams. She has had her horses in fantastic form this season, and sends just the one runner up to Yorkshire for this fillies junior bumper under Harry Challoner. It won't take a great deal of winning, therefore you'd hope the trip would be worthwhile.

Any feedback? Either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Good Luck,

Will

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