Cheltenham 2014 - Day 1 Preview

With only days to go before the roar erupts from the grandstands at Cheltenham, I thought it was time that I collated my views onto the blog for you to view. I have a few strong fancies which will become clear over the next few posts, and hopefully we can be up by the end of the week.

I will start with Day 1:

1.30 - Supreme Novice Hurdle:

Irving a good thing?

Irving is the red hot favourite for the opening race of the meeting, but I have three pretty serious doubts about him that make his price of 5/2 seem very skinny to me. The first one, although it may be a very minor concern, is that he has never run left handed before in this country, after wins at Taunton, Ascot twice and Kempton so far. The second is that he has come off the Flat and is an out and out two miler, whereas the past winners of this race suggest on the whole that you have to stay well, with Menorah, Al Ferof and Champagne Fever all recent winners, with the likes of L'Escargot, the dual Gold Cup and Grand National winner a past victor further back. Finally, I am not one to make a point about jockeys but Nick Scholfield has only ridden one Cheltenham Festival winner, Hunt Ball in the 2012 Pulteney Land Novice Handicap Chase, and only one Grade 1 winner, Melodic Rendezvous in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown. I just think with these concerns, he is very short at 5/2, and I'd rather be a layer than a backer.
The British handicapper reckons that Irving is rated 149 after his easy Dovecote success, but Vautour is rated 154, acts on all ground, stays well, copes with big fields and has the master Ruby Walsh on his back. The only slight concern is his jumping and the fact he probably won't get an easy lead but apart from that, he must go very close indeed.
I would much rather back Vautour of the two, but I do feel this is a race to fire a couple of each way bullets at double figure price horses.
I particularly like Gilgamboa should he line up for AP and JP. He was a smooth winner of the Boylesports.com hurdle at Leopardstown last time out, travelling very sweetly throughout before asserting close home under Mark Walsh. We will find out this weekend which race he goes for (this or the County Hurdle) but hopefully they will choose this race as he has the same pull factors as Vautour in terms of ground, field size, stamina and jockey.
Finally, Garde La Victoire might be worth a small each way bet as well if you can excuse his last run because of the tacky soft ground at Kempton, then he is no 33/1 chance. He has form closely tied in with the likes of Ballyalton and Regal Encore, both horses I rate very highly plus his narrow defeat behind Ballyalton at Cheltenham proves he acts at the course.

As for the others, I don't think Josses Hill is quite ready for this given his profile, plus he can make the odd bad error. Wicklow Brave has been tipped up by many for this but his jumping left plenty to be desired last time. Splash Of Ginge needs softer ground to be seen to best effect and Vaniteux although very impressive visually at Doncaster last time out, may not find much off the bridle if asked. Sgt Reckless and Un Ace both have small chances at big odds too.

2.05 The Irish Independent Arkle:

Can Rock On Ruby win again at Cheltenham?

An intriguing renewal of the Arkle with two past Cheltenham winners towards the top of the market. Champagne Fever is the favourite and to be honest, I think he will be very hard to beat. Although beaten by Defy Logic over Christmas, Ruby Walsh was arguably guilty of getting into an unnecessary pace battle with him, forcing his bad error two out and leaving him no chance of catching Defy Logic thereafter. He schooled well after racing at Leopardstown and don't forget, he's won at the last two Festivals so will be extremely hard to beat. Rock On Ruby hasn't had enough of a test of fences yet to be clear as to whether he is as good over fences as he was hurdles, beating a total of two horses in two runs over fences. He will however relish the good ground and has a very good record at Cheltenham, but personally, there isn't enough for me to back him at around 9/2.
I couldn't have Dodging Bullets given his record last spring where he completely lost his form, but I may be completely wrong with that. Trifolium is the biggest threat to Champagne Fever to me, but I will stick with Champagne Fever to fend him off up the hill for a win perspective.
On the each way side of things, I fear that although Valdez was good last time, that he isn't quite this good, likewise Ted Veale who has struggled against the likes of Trifolium all season. Grandouet has an in and out profile both at Cheltenham and over fences which make him tough to judge, but he is overpriced if he can return to his form of a quarter of a length defeat behind Hinterland at Sandown at the start of December. Arnaud is another who could go well at a price, considering all his best form is on good ground.

2.40 Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase:

Ackertac going down narrowly to Triolo D'Alene last season

A race that I will have a more clear view on once the final declarations come out on Monday, although there is a horse entered that I fancy strongly. He is a big price, but I feel Ackertac could go well for Tim Vaughan after his excellent second place at the Festival last year behind Rajdhani Express. Course form is so important at Cheltenham, and this lad has lots of it, winning at the April meeting after that second place at 66/1. His mark has dropped a few pounds this season after running below par on desperate ground which he doesn't like, so I think he can be a real player at 33/1. Alfie Sherrin would be another I'll be backing should he get into the race after winning it two years ago. I don't fancy Hadrian's Approach at all as I don't like his jumping in a big field.

3.20: Champion Hurdle:

The New One was electric in the 2013 Neptune Novices Hurdle

What a race we have to look forward to here! Hurricane Fly, the dual champion is back again and as usual has been winning the Grade 1s at Leopardstown through the season, beating Our Conor and Jezki twice. Although he is probably less effective at Cheltenham than Leopardstown, it doesn't mean he doesn't act here which is quite obvious with 2 Champion Hurdles on the mantlepiece. My Tent Or Yours and The New One are very closely matched on the Christmas Hurdle form in which My Tent Or Yours mowed down The New One after he made a horlicks of the last hurdle. Now many people have views about the outcome of that race had The New One not made that mistake, but I personally feel that he would have won had he not made the error, but I understand the other side of the argument. The New One has a very good Cheltenham record and I am confident that he is the one to beat and I'm certain he will beat My Tent Or Yours in a battle up the hill. Our Conor is a huge danger given how easily he won the Triumph Hurdle previously and his trainer Dessie Hughes being adamant that he will be prepared for just one race only all season and it is this race. Jezki needs two and a half miles and I would be intrigued if Un De Sceaux turned up, although he has it to do.
Finally, Melodic Rendezvous won't get his ground and is likely to be outpaced. In summary, I am sweet on The New One, with Our Conor the chief threat, together with Un De Sceaux should he run.

4.00 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle:

Can she make it 6?

This race is all about Quevega and it is very hard to see her being beaten if she is at her best. Only a few appeal to me each way and they are Sirene D'Ainay and Down Ace but I think this is a race to watch and admire a brilliant mare making Cheltenham history.

4.40 Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase:

Foxrock has a huge chance for owner Barry Connell

I don't have a great deal to offer here apart from that I think Foxrock will be very hard to beat for Barry Connell, Ted and Katie Walsh. Katie has a lot of Cheltenham experience and has ridden a few winners at the course over the years, and on a day where Ruby is likely to have at least two winners, this looks a good opportunity for more Walsh celebrations. Shotgun Paddy has slight jumping concerns, but if you want one at a really big price, Beeves could go close for Donald McCain.

5.15: Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase:

Manyriverstocross (left) giving Oscar Whisky a race at Sandown last time

A fiercely competitive race to end the card but it does feature one of my lays of the meeting. That is Pendra, who is a horse that has been overhyped from the very start, with his wins in his career coming at Plumpton (x2), Carlisle, Lingfield and Huntingdon, all middle of the road tracks. He ran well on bottomless ground to be second in the Tolworth Hurdle but ran a shocker in the Coral Cup last season and terribly last time out at Ascot. He is effectively a disappointment considering all the chat. His trainer Charlie Longsdon hasn't had a Festival winner yet and is just 1-67 in all at the course.
Manyriverstocross however is one I like the most here, particularly after his trainer said that he was his best chance of a winner all week. He gave Oscar Whisky something to think about in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Sandown last time, and has plenty of good form at Cheltenham, including finishing third in the County Hurdle last year. I'm certain he will be in the shake up.
Baby Mix and Buywise could both go well at decent prices.

Fingers crossed we can start the week off well, find a winner and a bit of value.

Keep in touch with me on Twitter @willbowler2k12 or post a comment below.
Will

The Will To Win 20 Horses to Follow for the 2013-14 Jumps season

Another season means another set of horses to follow, and this time I have increased from ten to twenty to try and get even more winners. There is no particular order to the list and I would recommend putting them all in a tracker system, and hopefully watch the winners flow. 

Ballyalton dotted up at Uttoxeter last week

1) Ballyalton (I Williams) – This big, imposing type impressed me when I saw him at Southwell last year where he finished second to Imperial Leader, a nice type in his own right. His seasonal reappearance at Uttoxeter last weekend was scintillating, winning by fifteen lengths, jumping very well. He has won point to points so should stay further in time and jump fences. He looks a very, very exciting prospect. 

2) Red Devil Boys (J Ferguson) – Red Devil Boys hasn’t been seen since a very cosy novice hurdle win at Doncaster just after Christmas, but is a horse I am particularly looking forward to seeing out this term. He looks to have enormous potential. 

3) Fourjacks (T Easterby) – This lad really impressed at Wetherby on his chase debut last January when he beat Poole Master from the David Pipe yard. He was then beaten in the Towton before getting back to winning ways at Market Rasen in a small race. His season culminated at the Cheltenham Festival where he was struggling throughout in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase on Day 1, pulling up in the end. I still think his mark has scope as he is still lightly raced and there are quite a few races in the North for him. 

4) Clever Cookie (P Niven) – Unbeaten so far - a smooth win at Musselburgh on debut was followed up under a penalty in hard fought style at Market Rasen under Jason Maguire, spread eight months apart. The biggest question is how long he stays with Peter Niven, which nobody knows, but if he does, then I think he will certainly be winning northern novice hurdles and is one to keep on side.

5) Cue To Cue (K Reveley) – Keith Reveley’s mare improved no end last season, starting with a runaway win in a Southwell handicap hurdle when jockey James Reveley said afterwards that he “really likes her for the future”. She was then a pretty close second to former Champion Hurdle second Peddlers Cross at Musselburgh but what seemed a below par effort at Doncaster. However, nothing made up much ground in that race because of a slow pace throughout and also three miles may just stretch her a little. If they decide to go down the mares novices chase route, then she could do very well as the most common distance in the elite mares novices chases historically has been 2m5f, which is her optimum. I think she is well handicapped and one to follow over either hurdles or fences.

6) It’s A Steal (E Williams) – It’s A Steal basically looked a bit immature last season in a couple of novice hurdle defeats at Sedgefield, not an easy track for an immature horse with its undulations. He has won a point to point and fences will be the making of him, it’s just a question of when they try them - this season or next. If it is the 14/15 season, then he will definitely win hurdle races this season, but I will be really encouraged if he does go chasing. Regardless of which option they choose, he is one to watch very closely.

7) Just Popsy (H Main) – Clearly not the easiest based on her antics at Lingfield on debut where she drifted violently left and lost a lot of ground straight away. She then pulled fiercely hard but ran well all the same to be fifth. She then ran in a much classier bumper at Warwick next time which has produced plenty of winners, finishing seventh and shaping in a much more professional manner. She is a seven year old but I think she is quite interesting to watch in the 13/14 season. 

Regal Encore - My favourite horse in training by far!

8) Regal Encore (A Honeyball) – My favourite horse in training without a doubt. I was lucky enough to be at Southwell when he won without turning a hair. I had to wait quite a while to see him again but he didn’t disappoint when hosing up at Chepstow under AP McCoy. Another pretty big gap then until his next run, which came in the Cheltenham Festival bumper, where he travelled very strongly as usual but couldn’t live with the gigantic stride of Briar Hill. However, he still stayed on well to finish a clear second without having too hard a race and now embarks on a hurdles campaign which I can’t wait for. He reminds me of Champion Hurdle winner, Binocular and fingers crossed that by the end of the season, he will be well up the market for the 2015 Champion Hurdle.  

9) Cape York (M Jefferson) – I was impressed by him when I saw him at Uttoxeter in November, where he was a bit too green to do himself justice, but has steadily become more street wise, a good fourth at Haydock before winning at Market Rasen. I think he is one to follow hurdling at a fair level in the North. 

10) Emperor Commodos (R Mathew) – A slightly quirky one here from an unconventional yard. The main reason why I included him are that his last run at Folkestone was extremely eyecatching (you will see why if you watch it). I think he needs three miles on bad ground in handicap company (needs one more run for a mark) and I think he could develop into a fair horse for a capable, small yard. 

11) Wing Mira (V Williams) – This lad is a definite winner for this season. He shaped with plenty of promise on deep ground at Bangor on debut in a bumper, before another decent effort at Huntingdon when he took a bit of a tug and stayed on at the one pace. I’m sure he’ll win over hurdles if he doesn’t mop up a bumper first. 

12) Take The Mick (V Williams) -  A very dark one here, again from the Venetia Williams yard. I think his mark of 101 is lenient and if upped to three miles I think he will get off the mark. He didn’t get much room on the bends at Ludlow last time before staying on really well late in the day for fourth. I just think he is very well handicapped and I couldn’t leave him out. 

 

O'Faolains Boy is a horse I really like

13) O’Faolains Boy (Rebecca Curtis) – This big, imposing lad could be my idea of the RSA Chase winner come March. I was very impressed by him on more than one occasion last season, from a Chepstow bumper win, and then another win there over hurdles before a step up in trip to three miles for another win at Bangor. His final run was superb though, fourth in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham behind At Fishers Cross, African Gold and Inish Island. He has won a point and he is definitely one to follow for all the big three mile novice chases. 

14) Fourovakind (H Whittington) – A flag bearer for rookie trainer Harry Whittington last season with wins at Uttoxeter and Chepstow under Jerry McGrath before a good second at Exeter on his final start. He could develop into a Pertemps Final horse as he has only had four runs over hurdles and could still be improving. 

 

Wingtips

15) Wingtips (A Martin) - I think this lad could develop into the Tony Martin County Hurdle horse. He has a high cruising speed but was probably a smidgen off the top horses in novice company. He is one to watch before Cheltenham, because something like the Betfair Hurdle could fit the bill quite well.

16) Rydon Pynes (M Hill) – Martin Hill is a trainer I follow and this horse certainly has potential to be a leading light for the yard this winter based on his good showings in an all weather bumper and a couple of novice hurdles. He needs one more run for a mark and is definitely one to follow this season. 

17) Ruben Cotter (P Nicholls) – A staying chaser to follow, particularly after the way he won at Doncaster earlier this season beating a nice horse in Vintage Star. He fell next time and was put away after that, but could develop into a horse that could go well in races like the Badger Ales at Wincanton or a number of races at the Festival. 

18) Marrakech Trader (R Dobbin) – This flashy chestnut ran a very nice race on debut to be second at Wetherby for Rose Dobbin, a young trainer just starting to build up a nice stable of young horses with decent futures, and this horse is one of them. He could well pick up a Northern bumper before embarking on a hurdling career, which should also prove fruitful. 

19) Urcalin (D Arbuthnot) – Urcalin is a horse with a turn of foot, especially judged on his win at Stratford in April. He is rated 119 over hurdles, so therefore is eligible for plenty of handicap hurdles at places like Taunton and Ludlow, both sharp, speedy tracks that will play to his strengths. One to follow granted two miles and a decent pace. 

20) Gone Too Far (A King) – Gone Too Far looks a very nice type for Alan King based on his Kempton bumper win, which has produced plenty of winners including Hannibal The Great who also looks above average. He is a nice stamp of a horse and Alan King has been pretty bullish about him since that win at Kempton in May and is very much one to follow in high level novice hurdles.

    I hope you have enjoyed reading these and fingers crossed for plenty of winners.

    Be lucky,

    Will

Ebor Meeting Day 4 Preview

What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, and it isn't over yet!! The centre piece of the Ebor festival is of course The Ebor itself, which is run at 3.50 over a mile and three quarters. In this preview, I will look at 4 races from York plus anything else from other meetings that catches the eye on this typically hectic Saturday racing schedule.

2.05 - City Of York Stakes (7f - 9 run)

Cristiforo Colombo has his easiest test for quite a while here.

This looks like a really good opportunity for Cristiforo Colombo to get back in the winner's enclosure for Ryan Moore and Aiden O'Brien. To be honest, I think he is too big at around the 2/1, 9/4 mark, considering he was not disgraced in the Guineas when going off a 10/1 shot, and is now in Listed company. The slight issue is that he has only won the once, and that was on debut, but I don't think he is ungenuine by any means. I reckon that if he replicates any of his last three runs, he wins. Rex Imperator looked rejuvenated in the Stewards Cup when winning it well, and I guess this race looks the most obvious place to go after that. I have a bit of a worry about the trip after seeing him run over seven at Doncaster earlier on in the season where he travelled beautifully and didn't see it out as well as Diescentric who battled back past him to win. Glory Awaits could rout these on a going day, but who knows whether this will be one of those, and the fact remains that his only career win in eleven starts was a 50/1 maiden win at Haydock. Sirius Prospect could go well for Dean Ivory, again if he can show as few of his quirks as possible. But in summary, I think Cristiforo Colombo is nap material here.

2.40 - Melrose Stakes (1m6f - 16 run)

Dark horse Mister Impatience could go well here at a price.

This looks a very difficult handicap to solve indeed. I was lucky enough to be at this meeting last year and saw Guarantee win very nicely from Biographer. Great Hall the top weight looks to be on a massive upward curve and is certainly respected here despite top weight. The favourite is Havana Cooler for Ryan Moore and Luca Cumani, but on the evidence of his run at Goodwood last time out,he lacks a gear. That would be a concern here in a race that demands a bit of class. I think Divergence will struggle to make all like he did at Ffos Las last time out. Irish raider Dark Crusader could go well, but I'm siding with Mister Impatience for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning. With more rain likely to fall, his case becomes twice as convincing because he's actually dropping in grade here after running in the Goodwood Cup, where he ran very well up until half a mile from home, where his stamina hit a brick wall. This course and distance look ideal for him, and as I say, if the heavens open, I'd really fancy him strongly each way at around 16/1.

3.50 - Betfred Ebor (1m6f - 19 run)

Sheikhzayedroad...will the draw scupper his hopes?

I cannot wait for this race to begin! Opinion is the favourite at the time of writing and must be respected after a luckless passage last time out at Haydock under Kieren Fallon. However, I don't consider him to be value whatsoever. Tiger Cliff must go well, providing the ground doesn't ease too much. Ted Veale is one I do fancy for Tony Martin, who has plotted his route to this race with meticulous precision. He won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival under Bryan Cooper in soft ground, and has been kept on the go through the summer with this race in mind. He must be feared by all, but he's not gone unnoticed that's for sure. Sheikhzayedroad is the one I will plump for with most confidence despite the wide draw. He acts with juice in the ground, and is a hold up performer so can be dropped in from his wide draw. Martin Lane has struck up a good relationship with him and I think he will run a big race. I have followed Caravan Rolls On for a good while but he is becoming frustrating and should have won last time. I will chuck a couple of bigger priced runners in the mix for value purposes, Tropical Beat and Saptapadi.

 

Tropical Beat (right) gets nabbed at Haydocklast year by Sir Graham Wade.

Tropical Beat is trained by David O'Meara who has his horses in fine fettle this week, and he hasn't had Tropical Beat in his yard too long since leaving John Gosden. He ran a good race at Musselburgh on his stable debut and comeback after nearly a year off behind Party Line, who ran such a valiant race in defeat here on Wednesday. I think he will go close. Saptapadi has been an old favourite of mine for a long while, so there is a touch of sentimentality associated with this selection. However, he does like York and likes a fast pace over this trip, which will be the case tomorrow. He was fifth in this behind stablemate Moyenne Corniche in 2011 off an 11lb higher mark than today so that side of things all adds up nicely. I just think he could stay on into a place at a juicy price.

5.35 - Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Stakes (5f - 15 run)

Threes Grand running Moviesta to a length at Doncaster in April

A tricky handicap to finish the festival, but I like one quite strongly in this for trainer Scott Dixon. The horse in question is Threes Grand who has useful apprentice Tim Clark in the saddle. He ran an eyecatching race at Doncaster last weekend when slightly checked in his run a furlong out before staying on well for fourth under Jamie Mackay. Jamie may have been a little rusty as he's only had 46 rides this year, with just 2 winners. Tim Clark however has a very good Turf record in 2013, 5-19 with a healthy level stakes profit. This lad ran Moviesta, a subsequent Group 2 winner to a length at Donny in April off a mark of 88, and is 10lbs lower here so should surely figure. The dangers would contain New Fforest and Cosmic Chatter, but I think Threes Grand could be a very good each way bet tomorrow.

Elsewhere?:

I am looking forward to seeing how Mecca's Angel gets on in the Nursery at York at 4.25. She hacked up at Southwell last time in a very fast time, and it was telling that her trainer Michael Dods came to the Nottinghamshire track that night to see her run.
At Goodwood, Valen could run a huge race in the opener at 2.20, a Group 3 for fillies, after a rout at Ffos Las last time out. The feature races though are at 2.55 and 3.30. The 2.55 is a seven furlong handicap with 19 set to go to post. I would really fancy Pythagorean if he was drawn better, but James Doyle will have his work cut out from stall 18. Jack's Revenge, Shebebi and Mabait are others to consider. The 3.30 should go the way of Afsare providing he goes in the stalls okay.
It could pay to do a "John Gosden win double" at Newmarket with progressive pair Fledged (3.20) and Willow Beck (5.05).

David Wachman - Hopefully the man to train a winner at The Curragh.

Finally, The Curragh host a really good card, headlined by War Command in the 4.20. It is not often I'd fancy a newcomer in a sales race, but Insight, who runs in the 3.45 is one of those. He is trained by David Wachman, who trained his sire Bushranger, and the owners had a winner last week at Dundalk in maiden company also by Bushranger. I think it is telling that this lad lines up here on debut, as many of the ones who have runs under their belts haven't achieved a huge amount.

Any feedback? Either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.
Be lucky,
Will