York Ebor Festival Day 2 Preview

It's Yorkshire Oaks day on Thursday afternoon on the Knavesmire and it looks a great renewal. Also, one of our dark horses Our Obsession runs in the Listed Galtres Stakes plus a Group 2 for two year old fillies in the Lowther Stakes. In this preview, I will look in detail at the three races I have just mentioned and hopefully find some winners.

2.30 - Lowther Stakes (6f G2 - 9 run)

Can Lucky Kristale defy a 3lb penalty?

A race in which I don't think many can be considered too much. Lucky Kristale ran reasonably well at Royal Ascot before routing a good field at Newmarket. She has to carry a 3lb penalty for winning that Group 2 last time, but is clear on the ratings so should go very close once again. However, J Wonder is the one to be with here for Brian Meehan and Martin Lane after a taking win on the July course last time out. It is rare for a Brian Meehan horse to win first time out, and this filly did just that, before winning readily in a good nursery last time. The main threat might be Kaiulani, who ran very well at Royal Ascot despite greenness. She has had a break since and comes here fresher than most. Also, she is up to six furlongs here which is only going to help and I think she is slightly overpriced at double figure odds.

3.40 - Yorkshire Oaks (1m4f G1 - 8 run)

"Listen, I think she is the one Rishi!!!"

A fantastic race to look forward to that is for sure. The Fugue clearly had excuses at Sandown when scoping dirty in the days afterwards. However, that is a pretty big cloud to have over her head on the run up to such a big race. Wild Coco didn't beat a great deal at Goodwood but did it nicely. I just think she is ever so slightly vulnerable to an improving younger horse as she has to give weight away to those. Secret Gesture has a decent chance here, especially as Jamie Spencer said he rode her last time out to "be balanced on the track rather than ride her to win the race". A slightly odd statement I know, but she was only worn down late on that day, so I'd give her another chance. However, my leading fancy is Venus De Milo for Aiden O'Brien. Ryan Moore gets the leg up as Joseph can't do the weight, but that is no negative. I have been very taken by her turn of foot in her performances this year, especially the last twice when second in the Irish Oaks, and at Cork last time out when routing a Listed field with the minimum of fuss.

4.20 - Galtres Stakes (1m4f Listed - 12 run)

Our Obsession to step up in this Listed race

A Listed race for fillies and mares here, and our dark horse Our Obsession takes her chance at a bit of black type. I think she will be very, very competitive. She was impressive at this course a few weeks ago in handicap company over two furlongs shorter, so the step up in trip will be no problem. She was entered in all the big fillies races and Classics at the start of the season so is clearly well thought of. None of the others actually scare me, but I respect Say and Star Lahib.

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Be lucky
Will

York Ebor meeting Day 1

This meeting holds a special place in the British racing calendar for many racing fans, and after last years duel between Frankel and fresh air, Al Kazeem versus Toronado, Trading Leather, Declaration Of War and Hillstar is a little bit more competitive! We also have a very good renewal of the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday, featuring The Fugue and Wild Coco, the Yorkshire Cup on Friday with Estimate back in action, and to top it off, the Ebor itself on Saturday afternoon.
With a great week ahead of us, it would be good to start on a winning note, and hopefully I can find some for you in this in depth preview of Wednesday's action.

1.55 - Symphony Group Stakes (5f89y - 20 run)

This will be Angels Will Fall's first run in a handicap.

A wide open sprint handicap to start us off, and Above Standard is the early favourite for Mick Easterby and Graham Gibbons. He has improved vastly in the past year, starting with wins on the all weather, but seemed to not stay six furlongs at Goodwood last time after hitting the front and fading close home into fourth place. He does have a peculiar pedigree for sprinting being by Shamardal, but he can certainly run. However, his price doesn't represent much value at 7/1. I saw Doctor Parkes win at Doncaster on Saturday, and he toughed it out well, but is in deeper this time. He also wears a head collar so clearly is a little bit quirky. Demora is a very likeable mare for Mick Appleby, who started winning off a mark of 59, and today races off 90! This trip is ideal and she loves a battle so shouldn't be too far away. Neither should Barnet Fair, trained by the very much in form Richard Guest. Again, five furlongs is definitely his trip and has crack apprentice Connor Beasley taking off a very useful five pounds. Cheviot and Bogart are others with bits of chances, but I like two in particular here, which are Face The Problem and Angels Will Fall. Face The Problem has been loitering on a dangerous mark for a while now and is showing glimmers that he is back to his best, mainly two runs ago behind Barnet Fair. He has been dropped 3lbs after a poor run in the Stewards Cup, and could easily outrun his likely big odds. Angels Will Fall has never run in a handicap and I think she isn't unfairly treated for Charlie Hills, who will celebrates two years as a trainer this week, and Robert Winston, who rides York brilliantly. I think both of these are worth each way plays in a open race.

3.05 - Great Voltigeur Stakes (1m4f G2 - 7 run)

Willie The Whipper could easily outrun his price in trappy race.

This is one of the most recognised trials for the St Leger at Doncaster on the 14th September. Telescope comes here with a slightly suspect profile after a defeat at Haydock last time out when an easy win was expected. I wouldn't be touching him tomorrow after that, because he lacked any sort of turn of foot, unlike all his rivals tomorrow. If he wins tomorrow, then I'll be more than happy to admit I was wrong but 6/4 is very short for a horse that hasn't really done it on the racecourse yet in a Group 2. Cap O'Rushes was a pace maker to the big flop Libertarian in the Irish Derby, but stayed on really doggedly to be fourth, before winning a Group 3 at Goodwood, holding off the enigmatic Excess Knowledge close home by a diminishing neck. I think he is the most solid horse in the race, taking virtually an identical path to Encke who won the Leger last year. Secret Number isn't exactly solid himself after a troublesome passage in that Goodwood race last time. He was very poor on his previous York run in the Dante which is a concern.
Foundry is a complete unknown quantity entering a race like this, but could easily play a part if he's ready to go. However, I'm going to chance Willie The Whipper for Jamie Spencer. He definitely stays the trip and ran a belter in the French Derby behind Intello last time, staying on strongly from last place around the wide outside to be sixth. If the pace is strong enough, then it could play into the hands of this lad who is a hold up type. The ground maybe a concern but his trainer thinks he will be fine on better ground so I'm not too worried about that.

3.40 - Juddmonte International (1m2f G1- 6 run)

What a race! Al Kazeem has taken all before him so far in 2013, winning three Group 1's and looking superior in most departments. He has had a few challengers, mainly Mukhadram and one of todays rivals Declaration Of War, but beaten them all. He is a beautiful horse to look at as well and despite having to give three year olds a bit of weight, he is certainly the one to beat. Toronado has never run at this trip before and over the course of his career has had varying noises coming out of the Hannon camp regarding his optimum trip. After his win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last September, they said he was a "Derby horse", but all of this year he has been "speedy" and visually looks to have become much quicker. That won't neccesarily halt his chance tomorrow but I'm not totally convinced he will see out this ten furlongs as well as Al Kazeem.
Trading Leather is the Irish Derby winner and therefore merits plenty of respect as he definitely stays the trip well and should race prominently if not lead on his own. Declaration Of War has a little bit to find with the two principals and Hillstar may be best over further. I don't have a strong view so won't be tipping anything, but it is going to be a race to saviour no matter what.

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Be lucky,
Will

The Shergar Cup best bets

Ascot plays host to a truly international day of racing on Saturday with the Shergar Cup jockeys competition. In this preview, I will highlight what I think are the best four bets for Saturday afternoon.

1) Gerald Mosse Top Jockey (16/1 Ladbrokes)

Gerald Mosse is a fantastic French rider who has had good success on British soil for a number of years. I think he has a solid book of rides including Jack's Revenge, Mutual Regard and Sadler's Risk in particular. I just think he is overpriced in a market I normally wouldn't even look at.

2) Sweetnessandlight each way in the 12.55 (14/1 generally available)

Sweetnessandlight at Southwell, she's certainly improved since then!!!

I think 14/1 about this filly is a huge price in the opening race over a mile for Yasunari Iwata and trainer Jason Ward, who is vastly underestimated and a trainer I follow. This filly has definitely been the flag-bearer for this small operation based at Dante Stables in Middleham. She had a great year last year, rising up to a mark of 100 to start off in 2013. She was beaten a length by Woodland Aria at Leicester in a conditions event before running a belter at Royal Ascot. I felt her best run to date though was last time, again at Ascot in a muddling race where she wasn't very well positioned when they quickened and was caught in a pocket before staying on well late on. She has been steadily dropped by the handicapper and now lines up off a mark of 92. She is a huge price here and demands a fair bit more respect than her price may suggest.

3) Ahtoug to win the 2.05 (4/1 generally available)

Hopefully Joao Moreira will be smiling again after the Shergar Cup Dash.

Ahtoug is a little bit quirky, but looks to have optimum conditions tomorrow afternoon at Ascot. He was a fast finishing third in this race last year under Yutaka Take, and returns off the exact same mark. He has two races lately after a six month absence, both of which he ran well in over this course and distance. He will now be fully fit and should go very close indeed, with Racy as the biggest danger.

4) Shahdaroba each way in the 3.50 (11/2 generally available)

Kieren Fallon rarely rides for Rod Millman.

Shahdaroba looks to have outstanding claims in the Shergar Cup Sprint, the last race of the day at Ascot. Kieren Fallon has ridden just once for the stable in the last five seasons, and Shahdaroba looks to be taking a bit of a drop in class here as well. He ran over a mile at Chepstow last time out, and only got reeled back inside the final furlong, so a drop of two furlongs in trip is definitely not a problem. Most of the other runners are badly out of form and/or inconsistent, which makes him a rattling each way bet for me. Obviously Noble Deed has a big chance, but Fallon is much stronger than Rosie Napravnik which is in Shahdaroba's favour too. If Storm Moon lasted the six furlongs, then he could figure as he's 2-2 on the All Weather, and with the sand based nature of the soil, could outrun his price as well.

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Be lucky,
Will

2013 Flat Dark Horses Half Term report

I felt it was time to give an update on our ten dark horses that I advised back at the end of March. As with the jumpers, we got off to a very bright start with a few winners and we have had a Derby runner, a Goodwood Cup runner and a couple of Royal Ascot runners, which is fantastic. I will try to go for around a paragraph for each horse, telling how they have been getting on and what they might be doing before the jumpers (horses and clothes!) reappear in November.

1) Cannizaro House (T Clement) - Form this season:

Cannizaro House has not been seen or entered up this season so far. I think he is well handicapped but unfortunately I do not know of his fitness or whereabouts so we will wait and see whether any updates appear in the near future.

2) Our Obsession (W Haggas) - Form this season: 1

Our Obsession winning at York

As anyone on Twitter knows, I love this filly. She was entered in the British and Irish Guineas and Oaks', but didn't make any of those engagements, instead running in a fillies handicap at York. She won this decisively despite pulling hard early on and taking a little bit of nudging to close in, but she did it really well by over three lengths. She has been entered in the Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes on Champions Day, which is a clear sign of the way she is rated by her trainer. I am very excited to see where she goes next and is a very good horse.

3) Number One London (B Meehan) - Form this season: 3322066

He is becoming extremely frustrating to say the least. I am convinced he can win off his current mark of 78, but with his quirks, it doesn't make it very easy for us followers. I would be interested if he was purchased to go jumping as well. He reminds me of Gleann Na Ndochais on the jumps dark horses list from last season who placed a lot without winning. I will continue to watch him but he's never a confident bet!

4) Trucanini (C Wall) - Form this season: 321

This likeable filly got off the mark for us only last night at Yarmouth by a short head under George Baker which was pleasing. She has a good attitude and bumped into a good one at Haydock on her previous start, who is entered in a Listed race on Saturday. I'm sure she will continue to run well once she has been re-assessed and is definitely one to follow.

5) Mirsaale (J Tate) - Form this season: 197

Mirsaale has been a flag bearer for us this season, with his win in the Derby Trial at Epsom in April setting off dreams of the big one itself. He couldn't land a blow there and neither could he in a Group race against older horses at Sandown last time dropped to a mile and a quarter. I'd like to see him return to Epsom for a conditions/Listed race if the schedule allows in the future as he looks hard to place given his mark of 105.

6) If So (J Fanshawe) - Form this season: 1130

This filly won a brace of Lingfield sprint handicaps against her own sex back in May and ran very well at Kempton behind a couple of progressive types next time. I'm tempted to forgive her last run at Newmarket on the July course as she got no cover and I would imagine she would be winning again for us before the end of the season.

7) Twenty One Choice (E De Giles) - Form this season: 153

I really like this horse, and reckon he could be above a handicapper on Polytrack in particular. He won decisively at Kempton back in April, and followed that up with a huge run at Ascot in a big field, where he just failed to see out the mile trip. He ran okay at Ayr next time and remains one to follow closely.

8) Self Employed (G Woodward) - Form this season: 69

There are positives and negatives with this lightly raced six year old. He is from a yard who doesn't have many winners at all, and therefore we may never know fully how good this horse is. However, he stayed on quite nicely last time at Thirsk and has dropped to a mark of 69, which is much more realistic. I think he may be able to win a soft ground handicap before the winter is out, and could be a Fibresand horse too.

9) Mister Impatience (M Johnston) - Form this season: 1424430

After an absolute rout at Doncaster on the opening day of the Flat turf season in March, his mark went up 11lbs. He didn't like Epsom much at all next time, before a second to the subsequent Derby winner at Chester in the Chester Vase. Fourth in the Queens Vase was a great effort before a third to stablemates Maputo and Alta Lilea at Hamilton which was fine. He ran a great race in the Goodwood Cup for a long way as well. I'd give him a break and bring him back fresh on soft ground which he adores.

10) Hassle (C Cox) - Form this season: 42 (RUNS TONIGHT AT SANDOWN)

This colt by Montjeu has ran two races full of promise so far this season in maiden company and tonight goes in handicap company for the first time off a mark of 79. I think he will be very competitive and if tonight isn't the night, I don't think he will have to wait very long to get off the mark. He is also in next Wednesday at Ffos Las (under a penalty?!)

So 7 wins so far from six different horses is great, let's hope all ten can win before the end of the season.

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Be lucky,
Will

Glorious Goodwood Day 2 Preview

Day 2 of this prestigious meeting gives us a mouthwatering third clash between Dawn Approach and Toronado in the Sussex Stakes, with Declaration Of War throwing a slight curveball into the mix.
In this preview, I will look at three races in detail, with the hope of finding some good value and a few winners.

1.55 - Goodwood Stakes - 2m5f (20 run)

Hopefully David will be smiling again at Goodwood

This race is tough to get a grip on because there are no stalls and a lot of horses will have stamina concerns as they are running over this trip for the first time. I was lucky enough to be at this day last year to see Frankel, but I did back Hurricane Higgins, who won this race last year so I'm hoping for a repeat. There are a few horses at decent prices on my shortlist, such as top weight Gassin Golf, who has done very well since joining Richard Lee to go hurdling over the winter, finishing a close second at Punchestown a few months ago. Cloudy Spirit and Sohar both ran very well in the Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot, so would be interesting with a repeat of those runs. Lieutenant Miller also ran well at the Royal meeting and when champion jumps trainer Nicky Henderson has runners on the Flat, they also deserve a second look.
Kazbow has improved leaps and bounds since joining Richard Ford, and could run well, but I think Beyond is the one here. He is ridden by top apprentice Thomas Brown and trained by David Pipe, and ran well in this race last year, where he went off too fast under Willy Twiston Davies and ended up finishing fourth. He is a few pounds higher this time, but arrives on the back of a confidence boosting win at Salisbury under today's rider, so could be value at around 12/1 at the time of writing.

3.05 - Sussex Stakes - 1m (7 run)

Will Hughesie be smiling after the Duel on the Downs - Part II?

What a belter this is going to be! Dawn Approach is the favourite and rightly so after winning the Guineas in devastating fashion, before that infamous Derby disaster, and then in the style of Rocky Balboa, coming roaring back from off the ropes in the St James' Palace Stakes to win a titanic battle with Toronado. Toronado is back again to try and reverse that form at what is considered Richard Hughes and Richard Hannon's "home turf", and to be honest, that must be the pivotal factor here, in particular with Richard Hughes. Kevin Manning, the rider of Dawn Approach has had very few rides on the Downs over the years, just the five rides with one winner, Alexander Goldrun in the 2005 Nassau. Also more intriguingly, his last Goodwood ride was on Evens favourie Lush Lashes in the 2008 Nassau, who repeatedly got blocked up and was beaten by Halfway To Heaven. There are a few similarities, the short priced favourite who couldn't get any sort of run. Dawn Approach will have to pick through two pacemakers and that won't be easy at the business end of the race. There is noone better around Goodwood than Richard Hughes and for that reason I think Toronado will win this. Declaration of War is a threat, but I'm not sure he's quite as good as the other two. Trade Storm needs quick ground to show his best, and Gregorian is only a Group 3 horse for me.

5.25 - Harwoods Racing Club Handicap (7f - 20 run)

Nenge Mboko is in great form at present

This handicap looks very open indeed. I like a couple quite strongly, the first of which is Good Authority, who handles this track particularly well and has a handy weight pull with Askaud from Leicester last time out. He is also drawn well and could easily go very close at a good price. Spirit Of Sharjah could also get competitive for Frankie Dettori and Julia Feilden, especially off his current mark. Johnny Castle is trained by Amanda Perrett, daughter of Guy Harwood who's racing club sponser this race, and should be in there pitching at the business end with the draw a big help (drawn 1). The one I fancy most however is Nenge Mboko for George Baker. He has won his last three races and is really thriving at the moment. The thing I like about him is his turn of foot, and the visor which he has won in on all his three starts lately have certainly sharpened that finishing kick for sure. He has a decent draw and gets a juicy three year old allowance as well.

In summary:
2pts E/W Beyond 1.55 Goodwood
2pts WIN Toronado 3.05 Goodwood
2pts E/W Nenge Mboko 5.25 Goodwood
1pt E/W Good Authority 5.25 Goodwood

Any feedback? Either tweet me @willbowler2k12, or fill in the box below.

Best of luck,
Will.

Summer Plate Preview

Market Rasen host the biggest day of their season tomorrow with the Betfred Summer Plate the feature race at 3.30. In this post, I am going to pick the bones apart to this big midsummer pot and hopefully find some angles.

Paddy The Hare lengthening away!!!

The early favourite is Paddy The Hare, a horse who recently ended a long run of placed efforts with a win at Uttoxeter, before making it two on the bounce over this course and distance last time out, breaking the track record in the process. He is clearly at his peak physically and mentally at the moment, and must have a decent chance for Dr Richard Newland and Tom O'Brien.
Dr Newland has two other darts to throw at this in the shape of Pineau De Re and Bobowen. I think Bobowen may be a bit high in the weights, but this is his time of the year, as he won four on the bounce through July and August in 2012.

Pineau De Re made a very eye catching stable debut last time

Pineau De Re is one I really fancy here though in the hands of Richard Johnson. I was at Uttoxeter when this son of Maresca Sorrento made his debut for the doctor in the valuable Summer Cup, won by Storm Survivor. He travelled like a dream throughout the race, looking the likely winner turning for home, but then he got tired and gradually faded into sixth place. If you stopped that race at the distance tomorrow's race is run over, he may well have won. With the drop in trip here, and a drop of 2lbs by the handicapper, I think Pineau De Re is definitely the one to beat.

I am not sure that Dineur will get the trip but I fully respect his trainer Peter Bowen who is in great form and has a very good record at the Lincolnshire venue.

Last year's winning partnership of jockey David Bass and trainer Lawney Hill combine with Kings Legacy, formerly with Paul Nicholls. The big worry with this lad is jumping, as he has fallen once under rules over fences and twice in points. He is classy though and a mark of 129 is not impossible.

I am not a Problema Tic fan as I don't like his temperament. If he fancies it, he could go okay but that's not a certainty for sure.

Buck Mulligan is consistent and enjoys the fast pace of these contests, but the handicapper doesn't really get off his back so may be a little bit vulnerable.

Paul Nicholls has the top weight Woolcombe Folly who has been running very well in defeat of late, but the issue is that he has to concede upwards of 10lbs to all his rivals.

The bottom weight Grey Soldier will need to improve considerably if he is to play a part at the business end of the race.

Finger Onthe Pulse to roll back the years?

I would be a little surprised if the 12 year old veteran Finger Onthe Pulse didn't find a few too good to be honest, although he did win last time out. Stablemate Galaxy Rock could go well, as he is well handicapped and the mount of AP McCoy, but I'm not sure about his speed for this race, so I'll swerve.

I can't really have Royale's Charter as he jumped poorly through the winter and his yard are having very few runners to gauge their form.

Gentleman Anshan is too high in the weights now I think but it'd be great to see a small yard like Rosemary Gasson to have one run well in such a big race.

Brian Ellison has two runners, and of them I prefer Viva Colonia ridden by Noel Fehily, who loves quick ground and he has been keeping busy on the Flat.

Donnas Palm could go well

I do think Donnas Palm could run a big race towards the foot of the weights for Tim Vaughan. His runners are definitely turning a corner and this mare is now on a dangerous mark. She won a Grade 2 novice chase in Ireland about eighteen months ago when with Noel Meade, and tomorrow runs off 128 in a handicap. Michael Byrne takes another 5lbs off and I think she is overpriced.

In summary, Pineau De Re, Viva Colonia and Donnas Palm are the three I like for value.

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Best of luck,
Will

My first big day in the commentary box

As many of you will know, I am an aspiring racing commentator.
Recently, I was given the opportunity to commentate on harness racing at the York Raceway for their Championship meeting on 29 June.
My emotions were a mix of excitement and nerves as it is such a big fixture in the York calendar and I am an 18 year old rookie! In the days leading up to the big day, I did plenty of homework on past performances of the horses and got some great advice from fellow commentator Darren Owen, which made me feel more at ease.
So the big day started the usual way with The Morning Line, and then off to York we went at around 10am with notes and binoculars (which I don't really need) in tow. The meeting was different to those which I had been to before as there were two heats, where the two winners and eight fastest losers would qualify for the final. This was something new to deal with throughout the afternoon as I had two sets of heats ending in two finals, the three year old and four year old finals. I arrived at the track at midday and went to say hello to cameraman John and his wife Janet who is the photographer. They were a little surprised to hear I was calling this meeting as well, but for me, John and Janet make you feel much less nervous about it as they have so much knowledge and from this point onwards, I was much more excited rather than nervous.
I then went to the paddock office to see track manager Anthony Fettah, where I was told of any driver changers or non runners. Again, Anthony made me feel at ease saying "there is not 65 million people watching, so just do what you do and enjoy yourself".
I then had a bite to eat and drink before heading back to the office for the all important draw. This is pivotal to the day and I had to be there to note it all, before going through it over the tannoy. After the draw, I climbed the steps up to the commentary box and went through the draw for all the spectators for the first time in the afternoon. Before I knew it, the horses were about to parade for the first race, Heat one of the four year old championship for Fillies. After two non runners, there was only 5 runners so it was quite a nice way to start. Baby Rosa made all for Rhys Evans and won by a wide margin in a good time and I breathed a sigh of relief as everything went without a hitch. With races at twenty minute intervals, you don't think about it half as much as you might imagine as the races come thick and fast. The next two races flew by before a pulsating finish to the fourth race, the second heat for the three year old championship, which resulted in a narrow win for Irish raider Meadowbranch Ash, with six runners within two and a half lengths of each other.
The first of the finals, race ten, came around at around ten past five, a little over three hours after the first race, and it was the four year old championship, and just like the first, Baby Rosa made all for Rhys Evans before champion driver and trainer Rocker and Alexis Laidler won the three year old championship with Stamp Hill, who I had seen win twice this year at York and Leominster beforehand.
I came away beaming and happy with my work. Everyone concerned seemed happy with my commentaries and were very encouraging. My next date is on Sunday 14th July at the Evenwood meeting near Bishop Auckland, and I cannot wait. If you have never been harness racing before, I would certainly recommend it. For more information, check out the British Harness Racing Club website at This Address.

Will