Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview

The final day of the Royal meeting looks a really good one with the Wokingham handicap, Diamond Jubilee Stakes and the finale, the Queen Alexandra over the gruelling two and three quarter miles. In this preview, I will try and find the horses which can hopefully end the meeting with wallets full!!

2.30 Chesham Stakes (7f - 20 run)

Will Richard Hughes be smiling with Bunker?

I find this race very tricky to solve virtually every year and this is no different. Bunker is the pick of Richard Hughes, who suggested in his excellent Racing Post article last Saturday that this was his best hope of the week. To be honest, this looks the weakest two year old race of the week and I fully expect a huge run from Bunker in this. If there is an each way angle, it'd be Tinga, who I saw run with lots of promise at Doncaster on debut over six furlongs staying on well at the death, and is now upped to seven which should really help.

3.05 Hardwicke Stakes (1m4f - 9 run)

Ektihaam - Another win at Ascot?

This is a very good race indeed, with Mount Athos the favourite for Jamie Spencer and Dr Marwan Koukash. He is a horse with a good turn of foot, but would ideally need a strong pace. That is my worry here with Universal and Ektihaam the likely pace angles, but I don't think they will go very fast, so one of those two may be able to quicken off the front and steadily blunt Mount Athos's finishing kick. Ektihaam really impressed a lot of people with the way he extended away here last time and must go close again. Dandino is the one I like at a bigger price for Frankie Dettori. He is 1-1 at Ascot and 1-1 on the All Weather too, which is key on a sand based track like this one, and the race could unfold to suit him should he track the pace.

3.45 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (6f - 18 run)

Mince just beating Soul here last October

A very competitive renewal of this race, which just lacks Black Caviar who scrambled over the line to win this last year for Australia. The Aussies are represented again with Havelock and Sea Siren, the latter being the best hope under Ryan Moore. I find it difficult to weigh up the Australian form so I tend to stick to form I am familiar with. The Irish have chances with Dandy Boy, who won the Wokingham on this day last year for David Marnane, and Gordon Lord Byron, a huge improver last term.
Society Rock is very solid but he isn't a betting proposition at 10/3 considering he can miss the break (as he did in this race last year), and needs plenty of cover. I think the value lies in the picture above, Mince and Soul. Mince was something of a flop when being beaten at odds on at Windsor last time out, but this race and track will suit much better this time, so much so that she is the current six furlong record holder on this track. She will have improved since then and I think she must go close. Soul has a good record fresh and a good record at this course as well. The Godolphin horses in big fields have ran pretty well all week and I think he is overpriced.

4.25 The Wokingham (6f - 28 run)

Palace Moon has a lot of things in his favour

This is a very tricky race to weigh up and I've narrowed it down to four against the rest of the field. Palace Moon is the first one I want to touch on for Jimmy Quinn. He has ran in this corresponding race twice before, a close 3rd in 2010 and 8th last year, hitting the front a bit too soon before fading. However, he is 4lbs below the mark he ran off last year and ran a lovely comeback race last time out. He is drawn 1. Elusivity is the second one I like for David O'Meara and Tom Queally. He could do with rain but should enjoy having a big field to sit in and could easily figure from Stall 30. Glass Office is the one I am sweetest on for Jim Crowley. He is only a three year old so therefore receives an allowance of 7lbs. His last run though was the huge eye catcher, attempting to give Professor 5lbs in a Listed race at Haydock and was only beaten a length and a half. He is a very good all weather horse and with the sand based soil here at Ascot proving another big plus. He is drawn 19 so can choose which way he wants to go. Finally Bapak Chinta is a huge price if he can return to the form of his Royal Ascot win last year in the Norfolk Stakes. He shaped a little better last time out and a tiny each way bet would be advised from stall 16.

5.00 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (1m4f - 19 run)

Caravan Rolls On wins at Ascot winning very smartly

I'm going to keep this short as you could go round and round in circles. If Caravan Rolls On gets some luck from Stall 17, he will run a huge race as he is obviously well handicapped off a mark of 95. Highland Castle is a safer option and should figure as well.

5.35 Queen Alexandra Stakes (2m6f - 20 run)

Stopped Out over hurdles - but could run a huge race here

Another tricky end to the card, and the meeting. Shahwardi has a big chance to give Frankie Dettori a winner after finishing second in this race last year behind Simenon, and there is no Simenon in the race this time around. There are a couple of horses I think could go well at prices, but they are both better known for their exploits on the jumps. Stopped Out won in good style from the front at Sandown on the final day of the 2012/13 season in April, and ran well on ground that didn't suit on Flat debut at Thirsk behind Bold Sniper, placed here earlier on this week, and the fourth Mister Pagan has won since. He needs to lead though and Stall 20 makes that tricky, but could run well each way. I'd give a very small chance to American Spin as well who has ran well in this before and is a very big price at 66/1.

Fingers crossed I can find a few winners to end with.
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Enjoy the racing,
Will

Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview

As the meeting starts to draw to a close, the amount of runners certainly doesn't, with an average field of around 17 on this day, including the 29 runner Buckingham Palace Stakes to end the card which looks fiercely tough. After a very good Day 2 on the blog, let's hope I can find a few more.

2.30 - Albany Stakes (6f - 19 run)

Sandiva looks like a machine

A race that certainly has a lot of exciting fillies in it, headed by Sandiva who won with plenty of ease at Naas last time out, beating a good field with plenty in hand, including Jim Bolger's Heart Focus who reopposes again. She has been purchased out of Middleham Park since that win, and Frankie Dettori rides, but I don't see either as negatives and I think she will win. Behind her, Lucky Kristale could run well for George Margarson after wins at Newmarket and Yarmouth so far. She shows plenty of speed and should be competitive. Kiyoshi won nicely at Goodwood last time and has to be respected too. However, the each way value could lie with Race Hunter, who won a small maiden very easily on debut and has a high draw, an American pedigree and Johnny Murtagh aboard.

3.05 - King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f - 8 run)

Battle Of Marengo looks a good thing

I think this Group 2 lacks depth and looks to be Battle Of Marengo's to lose. I thought he ran a belter in the Derby after having to go for home plenty soon enough after Dawn Approach pulled his way to the front down the hill to Tattenham Corner. This is nothing like the quality of the Derby and I fully expect Battle Of Marengo to get back to winning ways, with Havana Beat the one to chase him home.

3.45 Coronation Stakes (1m - 17 run)

I can't wait to see how Viztoria gets on

My personal race of the week, an absolute screamer for three year old fillies. It has bought together Just The Judge and Sky Lantern who are taking each other on once again. Sky Lantern was on top, albeit narrowly, at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas when the pair took each other on first time around, but Just The Judge has won the Irish equivalent since then. Both fillies are very good, but this time they go around a bend together so it'll be amazing to see which one comes out on top. There are plenty of fillies who ran behind Just The Judge who reoppose, Rehn's Nest (2nd), Big Break (4th), Mizzava (5th), Maureen (6th), Snow Queen (10th) and Masarah (15th). I think Mizzava is overpriced but suspect she will probably come up short. Big Break was one who caught the eye in that race, but her value has gone completely.
Pavlosk has been supplemented for this race after readily destroying a small field in a Listed race at York, but this is a completely different test and I'd be a bit surprised if she was quite good enough to win. The one I like a lot is Viztoria, a filly who I have followed ever since her Listed race win at The Curragh last year, where she beat Snow Queen by seven and a half lengths. She was beaten in France but after a very smooth win at the start of this season, a rise in class was the next step. The ground is a bit of a worry, but she looks speedy enough and I think she will run a huge race. Trainer Eddie Lynam says that she "could be the best he's trained".

4.25 Wolferton Handicap (1m2f - 16 run)

Bana Wu has been knocking at the door in better company

This is a very trappy handicap that I'm struggling to work out, so small stakes would be advised on Forgotten Voice, a former Hunt Cup winner who needs fast ground and a good gallop to show his best, and Bana Wu. This filly has been running well for a long while now at Listed and Group 3 level, so back in a handicap off a mark of 98 could be the time to catch her. The worry would be the draw but I think she will go well.

5.00 Queen's Vase (In memory of Sir Henry Cecil) (2m - 18 run)

Hoping for a big run by Mister Impatience

This looks for a race where I can find plenty of each way value. My main hope is Mister Impatience, who I flagged up as a Dark Horse to follow on this blog in March. I have one negative and two big positives for this race which are as follows. The negative is ground as I think he is best with cut in the ground, however he should stay the two miles no problem and Mark Johnston has a great record in this race. I think the 12/1 available is worth a go each way. Nearly Caught could run well if showing improvement from his debut Windsor win, as could Chocala if he took to the quicker ground.

5.35 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f - 28 run)

Campanology could give Johnny Murtagh another winner

A really good handicap which I think gives us two or three strong selections. Campanology is the one I fancy for Johnny Murtagh after a hugely eye catching run last time out at The Curragh. He has past experience in big field handicaps and I think he will go very close. Emilio Largo is another horse that was a big eye catcher last time out on his first start for James Fanshawe. He was ninth in this race last year, not getting the clearest of runs, and I think he will be much closer. I saw that Ralph Beckett selected Redvers as his banker of the week in the Daily Telegraph last week, which I saw as significant because he used to train this gelding. He has a very good record at Ascot and in big fields, so must figure for George Baker.

Fingers crossed for a bit more luck on a tricky Day 4.

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Enjoy,
Will

Royal Ascot Day 2 Preview

An amazing first day of Royal Ascot 2013 where Dawn Approach and Toronado bounced right back to their best to provide a pulsating finish to the St James's Palace Stakes. Hopefully Day 2 will be as gripping and exciting.

2.30: Jersey Stakes (7f - 21 run)

Garswood back to his best?

This is a race that I'm not too keen on and I don't have a strong opinion. There are a few horses that were down the field in the Guineas and their connections taking the view that they didn't stay, which is certainly the case with Garswood I think. He looked very good when winning at Newmarket's Craven meeting and could never get very competitive in the Guineas itself. I think Music Master and Jammy Guest will outrun their respective prices too but as I say, I don't have a strong view.

3.05: Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Windsor Forest) (1m - 10 run)

Duntle to win at Royal Ascot again?

A really top class event for Fillies and Mares. Dank has a very progressive profile and could provide Ryan Moore yet another Ascot winner. I will oppose her tentatively in favour for Duntle, who won at this meeting last year in the Sandringham Handicap. David Wachman is one of the shrewdist trainers from across the Irish Sea and I think she may the one here. There would not be a dry eye in the house if Lady Cecil could win with Chigun under Tom Queally. Thistle Bird is another improver as well so a really good race in prospect. Interestingly the top four in the market all have a course and distance win, a rarity for the meeting I would think.

3.45: Prince of Wales's Stakes (1m2f - 11 run)

Al Kazeem to beat Camelot again? I think so

Some people say this is the race of the week, and I wouldn't disagree with them. In a preview on Sunday at home, I put up Camelot as my lay of the week, and I see no reason to change. He was nearly a Triple Crown winner last year, but Main Sequence has not helped the form at all this year, being beaten by Ektihaam; who runs in the Hardwicke on Saturday, and Mukhadram who runs in this race again. Camelot has been beaten as well this season, by Al Kazeem, who is a very worthy favourite in this for me. He is still on an upward curve and has been underrated to date. The Fugue gets a fillies allowance and is a high class filly which every chance after her super smooth Nassau Stakes victory last year. French challenger Maxios will go close too after a Grade 1 win last time out at Longchamp beating Planteur. Afsare could figure too - a super race in prospect and one probably to sit back and enjoy.

4.25: Royal Hunt Cup (1m - 30 run)

Stirring Ballad has been punted off the boards

A fiercely competitive cavalry charge down the straight mile at Ascot. Stirring Ballad has been the object of a strong gamble after some glowing gallop reports from trainer Andrew Balding, and with an added bonus of Richard Hughes being on his back, I think she has every chance and must go pretty close. The doubt would be the big field intimidating her a little bit. Educate is rock solid for Jamie Spencer and must go close. Prince of Johanne is a past winner of this race and has to be feared despite him being a seven year old now. The two I like in particular are David Livingston and Winter's Night. David Livingston is another Mike De Kock runner and he sounded quietly confident last week. He used to be trained by Aiden O'Brien and is a Group 2 winner at his peak, so a mark of 102 could look quite leniant on old form. Winter's Night is a similar story, but I like her even more as she has really good form fresh and at Ascot, with two ready wins here in May and a place in the Sandringham handicap at this meeting two years ago. A mark of 97 and a very good 5lb claimer to assist her, I think she could go well.

5.00: Queen Mary Stakes (5f - 24 run)

Rizeena wins well at Sandown

A fascinating renewal of this contest for very speedy fillies. Beldale Memory probably sets the standard after a nice win at York last time out, but she is against some very unexposed rivals here. I think Rizeena is the one here for Clive Brittain after a very impressive win at Sandown last time out, beating plenty of previous winners. She had previously won at this venue so also has that in her favour in this. Reroute won very nicely at York on Friday, but this is a big step up and I'm slightly worried that she is turning out again so quickly. I think Oriel is a terrible price, as she is one of only two runners not to have won a race yet, and she has finished behind some of these, including Alutiq who could run well, Fire Blaze, another contender and Rizeena. I was impressed with Kaiulani at Leicester and she is another I am looking forward to alongside One Chance, who is a nice horse for a small yard to take to this big race. On that thread, Baytown Kestrel would prove a great story should this £400 purchase win this £56,000 pot for Phil McEntee.

5.35: Sandringham Handicap (1m - 26 run)

Woodland Aria - A handicap good thing?

A very tricky race that I can't really find an angle in. Woodland Aria would seem to be the one who is on the steepest upward curve for John Gosden and could be very well treated on the evidence on the table. I am willing to give Nargys another go after a terrible run in the Nell Gwyn for a yard that I respect hugely.

In summary, a day to go steady, but I do think Winter's Night in the Hunt Cup and Rizeena are my best bets.

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Enjoy the racing,
Will

Royal Ascot Day 1 Preview

All of a sudden the best 5 days of the Flat season are upon us. It doesn't seem that long ago since we were talking about "Who's going to win the Guineas?", and now the question being asked is "Which piece of Guineas form is the strongest?". That is most certainly the theme of Day 1 with a scintilating St James's Palace Stakes amongst the features.
In this preview I will cover every race and hopefully try and find a few winners!


2.30 - Queen Anne Stakes (1m - 13 run)

Animal Kingdom - Can he do it?

What a way to start the meeting with many people's banker of the week Animal Kingdom taking on the Europeans in an intriguing race. There is no doubting his achievments so far for sure, a Kentucky Derby winner and most recently a Dubai World Cup winner in March. He has racked up more prize money in Sterling than is available at the whole of this meeting, which is astonishing. However, many think he is vulnerable and I'm in that band I think. A straight mile in England is vastly different to anything he's ever faced before and that could be his downfall. The backers will say he is just too good for these and will be able to cope with conditions. I wouldn't be backing or laying him at odds on as there are so many unknown factors that could swing either way. I think the bet in the race is Trade Storm for David Simcock and Jamie Spencer. Jamie wasn't at his finest when he was fourth last time out in Meydan behind Sajjhaa but had previously won two more races in Dubai. He will be held up here behind a likely strong pace and should be able to figure at a double figure price. Declaration of War is a very short price considering his flop in the Lockinge at Newbury where he was behind two of today's rivals. Elusive Kate should run well with the fillies allowance but this is her seasonal debut and she may find life slightly tougher.

3.05 King Stand Stakes (5f - 19 run)

Another big day in the sun for Sole Power?

A very good looking King's Stand Stakes which will be run in about a minute, so it'll be fast and furious. Lots of pace angles here with the likes of Bungle Inthejungle, Reckless Abandon, Hoyam and Heeraat all liking to get on with it, but they are all drawn middle to high (stands side). Reckless Abandon will be most likely of those to be involved in the latter stages, but it is very hard for a three year old to win a race such as this despite the weight for age allowance. Shea Shea is the short priced favourite after some awesome displays in Dubai, including breaking the track record when winning the Al Quoz Sprint on World Cup night. However, he is very short on his English debut and he could be drawn on the wrong side as well. Shamexpress is yet another Australian raider to try his hand at Royal Ascot sprints following on from Takeover Target, Choisir and Black Caviar. I do think that there are two solid each way bets, Sole Power and Pearl Secret. Both are drawn high and have a naturally high cruising speed. Sole Power has a proven record in Grade 1's and is very consistent. If there is lots of pace on, he will definitely be bang there come the end of the race. Pearl Secret has been a horse I've eagerly waited for since he ran in the Nunthorpe last summer. He is a big bold chestnut with a really exciting year in front of him. Trainer David Barron sticks to his statement last season where he said that this "could be the best he's trained". Medician Man and Swiss Spirit could also go well but I'll stick to Sole Power and Pearl Secret.

3.45 St James's Palace Stakes (1m - 9 run)

Can Magician cast a spell on his rivals?

Three words, what a race. Dawn Approach vs Toronado round 2, plus Magician, Mars and Glory Awaits. Mouthwatering isn't it? 
Dawn Approach was so visually disappointing at Epsom in the Derby, that everyone has to have a few reservations about him reappearing only 17 days afterwards, especially as trainer Jim Bolger said straight after the race they'd go "easy on him for a while". It appears as though he has been flying at home for them to consider running here, so that must be a positive. I'm unsure and for that reason alone, can't be taking 5/4 about him. Toronado however I think is the value. He was alongside Dawn Approach travelling equally as well with two furlongs to run before fading and finshing "legless tired" at the end according to Richard Hughes who says he is back to his best at home. At 7/2, I think he could be worth a small win bet. Magician was awesome in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh and looks to hold a big chance as well. Stablemate Mars is a horse I fancy for the St Leger, and I'm surprised to see him drop half a mile back in trip. Glory Awaits can't be underestimated but I suspect he only has small place claims.

4.25 Coventry Stakes (6f - 16 run)

Stubbs winning well at Naas

This race last year was won by Dawn Approach, who won the Guineas so it could be the first big trial for next Spring. Stubbs is the favourite for Aiden and Joseph O'Brien and looks to be a really exciting horse for sure. The Coolmore operation have a couple of others with chances in the shape of Sir John Hawkins and War Command. I don't think there is a bet for me in this race, maybe a small each way tickle on Southwell winner Dubawi Fun, who quickened away nicely.

5.00 Ascot Stakes (2m4f - 20 run)

Will George be smiling after this?

A long distance handicap which tests both jockey and horse to the max. Junior is a past winner of this race and Tony Hamilton will be trying to send him from the front to make every single yard again. Well Sharp was a very easy winner in pouring rain at York last time and will be feared by all here if turning up in the same sort of form. Midnight Oil is the mount of Richard Hughes for the Willie Mullins yard, who won this last year with Simenon. He would have a chance too on his best form. I like two in this race, Lieutenant Miller but more so Apache. Lieutenant Miller won nicely at Doncaster last time out and is progressing steadily with every run. If he stays the trip here, a big run will be guaranteed as trainer Nicky Henderson has won this before with Veiled. The other I mentioned, Apache, is a horse I've been following eagerly since he's moved to Jane Chapple Hyam because I think there is big handicaps in this gelding. He ran a really eye catching race last time at Haydock, staying on steadily in the home straight. The trip is the big question mark but you have to give it a go and at 33/1, I will be backing him.

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f - 28 run)

Ogermeister winning at Belmont Park

A very competitive race in which I don't have a strong view. Ogermeister represents Wesley Ward who has had winners here before. I quite like Anticipated who won here last time out and represents Hannon and Hughes. If you nailed me to one though, it'd be Andhesontherun for Roger Varian, who I was taken with on debut at Leicester before running into a good one at Sandown last time out.

Any feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Enjoy the wonderful action.
Will 

Epsom Derby meeting

Last weekend, I was in Northumberland helping to promote and sell idiosyncratic beer (www.fromthenotebook.co.uk) and this week I'll be watching two classics at the most idiosyncratic Flat track in Britain at Epsom, and it is the two days I look forward to most in the Flat calendar. It has been a very lucky meeting for me over the years, and many of you will know Stone Of Folca was a huge winner for me at last year's meeting at 50/1 in the Dash. Hopefully I will try and eek out some more gems for this meeting in 2013.

FRIDAY:

I have to say that Friday provides us with less concrete selections than Saturday. I'll start with the big one, the Oaks. I think everyone who saw Secret Gesture win at Lingfield was impressed, but what did she beat? She couldn't have done it any easier but the previous question will always be a cloud over her until she runs tomorrow. I don't think she represents any value but I thoroughly respect her as a very live contender. Moth is a huge threat but she has been beaten in three of four starts, an odd profile for an O'Brien classic contender. She was also quite green in the Guineas. Liber Nauticus isn't too disimilar in the sense that she won a good class race with plenty in hand. She is a huge filly and Sir Michael Stoute is having a remarkable start to the season but I will be opposing her here. This race in recent times has thrown up a few left field winners including Look Here and last year's winner Was. I like Banoffee a lot after her smooth Chester win despite an interrupted passage. Kieren Fallon gave her a glowing report afterwards and it is rare for Fallon to get so animated about a horse with as little experience as she has. She should handle the track and will definitely stay. I think Madame Defarge will reverse the form with Talent from Newmarket and Michael Bell's other runner, The Lark, would be worth a few pennies each way. She needed the run at Newbury and has 'come on considerably' according to her trainer. Her dam is a half sister to the brilliant Sariska who won this race and could outrun her odds.
The other race I like for angles is the Investec Mile handicap at 3.20. I am particularly interested to see how Karam Albaari runs for John Jenkins. He has only won once which was on debut at Yarmouth but recently made a comeback from injury at the same course three and a half weeks ago staying on late in the day over seven furlongs. I don't think he's one to go mad on, but he could easily run better than around 20/1 indicates. Both Hefner and Benzanno were eyecatchers at Chester, and the latter has good course form meaning they both have a part to play.

SATURDAY:

Once again, we will begin with a look at the Classic on Saturday, the Derby. Dawn Approach is a very worthy favourite and I fully respect his chances as I think he is very good indeed. There are, however, concerns. The ground, trip and track all being factors that could go against him. Battle Of Marengo is the head of the busy Coolmore battalion and is still unbeaten. However, he has to improve on all known form and I would rather swerve him. I think another Aiden O'Brien runner is the best value in the race, and that's Mars for champion jockey Richard Hughes. He seems to be the forgotten horse in the build up, which surprises me after the pre-Guineas hype. He actually ran a very good race in the Guineas to be sixth on his second start on a racecourse. He is by Galileo so should stay the mile and a half no problem and at 14/1 I'm willing to give him a chance. I also have a Dark horse running in the shape of Mirsaale for James Tate. I think he is a bit big at 100/1 considering he is the only one in the race with a course win, and I really fancy him to beat Libertarian in a match bet as well.
As for the Dash at 3.15, the race which Stone Of Folca won for me last year, I think I may have found the solution again with a couple of runners. Confessional is my first choice for Tim Easterby. He has been unlucky in this race for the past two years and providing he gets a clear passage and I think he's a fair bet at 16/1. Taajub is the other one I quite like for Peter Crate. He has a decent course record without winning, but more importantly broke fast and got across from a low draw, which he has on Saturday in stall 4. He worth a poke at 25/1.
The undercard is high in quality, especially the Coronation Cup which should go to St Nicholas Abbey for the third year running. I think John Biscuit is one to watch in the 4.50 as well, with trainer Andrew Balding having a good record in handicaps at this meeting.

I hope you have enjoyed reading the preview and hopefully a few winners will come out of it.
Any feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Enjoy the racing,
Will

York Dante Meeting Day 1 Selections

On a very wet Tuesday afternoon, York plays host to the start of three great days of Flat racing, with a high class Oaks trial today and a Derby trial tomorrow, plus fiercely competitive handicaps. Best advice would be to watch the latest going reports like a hawk as the rain is still falling up there as I write. I would expect something like Good to Soft, Soft in places by the end of play today. In this preview, I look ahead to the first four races on today's card.

1.45 - Infinity Tyres Handicap (1m2f):

A tricky opener with both First Mohican and Lahaag likely to figure at the head of the market. Both have similar profiles in that they improved greatly last season and are from yards who historically do well with this type of horse. Of the pair, I would probably favour First Mohican as he is proven over this trip and on the likely soft going. If you wanted an each way dabble at double figure odds, you could do worse than back Silvery Moon under Ted Durcan. He has a really decent record when running on ground with some dig in, and last year he improved plenty from his first run to his second run of the season. He is now a 1lb lower than his last winning mark which would help even more.

2.15 - Infinity Ecosis Tyres Handicap - (6f):

Another wide open race, which annoyingly is down to three places with a couple of non runners. At first glance, Louis The Pious screams out as an improver on only his third start for David O'Meara. He ran a great race over this course and distance on soft ground in October and has to be feared by all. Nocturn is a rapidly improving colt who should run with plenty of credit here. I would split stakes each way in this with Compton and Bapak Chinta. Compton firstly is only having his second start for Robert Cowell, a yard I really respect with older sprinters. He ran well enough to a point on seasonal debut and acts well in soft ground. Willie Twiston Davies has ridden him once before to be a very close fourth to Jack Dexter on Champions Day last year and he should go close. Bapak Chinta is risky, but he is a Group 2 winner as a youngster and hasn't been over-raced. The handicapper has given him a chance and 33/1 is over the top.

2.45 - Musidora Stakes - (1m2f):

A race that revolves around Liber Nauticus and whether the hype surrounding her is justified. She may be a world beater, but at this stage, she's won a Goodwood maiden beating some fair horses nicely. She has a mark of 86 but is odds on for a Group 3, that is very short. The handicapper has Indigo Lady on a mark of 104, a full 18lbs more than the odds on favourite, and she is 13/2. That in itself represents value. I also think Hollowina could run very well as she is race fit after a luckless passage at Chester, has won with lots of juice in the ground before and is overpriced at 14/1. Woodland Aria is a complete unknown after a smooth Wolverhampton maiden win so she would be a threat.

3.15 - Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes - (6f):

What a race! This is a Group 1 in everything but name. Mince deserves to be right at the head of the market after a very productive year last term for Roger Charlton. However, this is her toughest test to date and she may have to find another couple of pounds to win this. Another filly in the line up is Tickled Pink for Sir Henry Cecil, who won the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket last time in good style. She got things her own way there and I would be a little surprised if there weren't a couple too strong in the closing stages for her. I think Society Rock and Gordon Lord Byron are worth a look, but have very tough tasks with their respective Grade 1 penalties. I do think Maarek though is the one to beat for Paul Hanagan. He loves soft ground and this looks a very suitable opportunity for him to at least be in the frame. If it's a double figure price you are looking for, then Jack Dexter is the way to go. He is improving and needs to have soft in the going description somewhere. The only slight worry would be that Graham Lee didn't pick him over Hawkeyethenoo.

I hope you have enjoyed this preview. If you have any feedback, either tweet me @willbowler2k12 or fill in the box below.

Enjoy the racing,
Will

Chester Preview 08/05/13

Chester begin their prestigious May meeting tomorrow with the Chester Cup the feature on Day 1. In terms of declarations, there is a fantastic turnout of entries making for some very competitive races indeed, especially in the handicaps. In this preview, I will look at each race and hopefully find as many winners as possible.

1.45 - Manor House Stables Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (5f 16y - 15 run)

What a start to the meeting with fifteen two year olds flying around the Roodee. Last year, it was won by All Fur Coat from the Jo Hughes yard, and she has Marilyn Marquessa in the line up this time under Paul Hanagan. The key stat for this race is the stall the last 10 winners have started from, in chronological order: 1,1,1,5,3,2,5,5,2,4.
This tells us that a low draw is a huge advantage. The top three in the racecard, and arguably the ones with the best form, Split Rock, Steventon Star and One Boy are drawn 14, 13 and 15 respectively, a near impossible mission. Therefore, I have to reluctantly rule these out. I think I have narrowed this down to two, who are drawn 5 and 8. They are Lilo Lil and Quatuor. Lilo Lil fits the profile of a winner of this, a very speedy and precocious two year old who has the 'King of Chester' on board Franny Norton. Quatuor is trained by Tom Dascombe, who's stable sponser this race. She showed plenty of zip when winning at Windsor last time out and could easily be better than what we have seen to date.

2.15 Wetherbys Bank Cheshire Oaks (1m3f79y - 11 run)

Draw isn't as important this time over this longer trip but a clean break is always a positive. It is an intriguing race with a couple of Irish runners from shrewd yards in Keeping from Ger Lyons and Salhooda from the Dermot Weld stable. Both have chances, but I think Salhooda could do with plenty of rain to enhance her chances. Charlie Hills has two runners in the shape of Premium and Reyaadah. The latter is taking a big rise in trip whereas Premium has only won a Wolverhampton maiden so far so is very difficult to gauge what we have on our hands with this particular filly. I will plump for The Lark though for Michael Bell. She won a Doncaster maiden last back end in good style, staying on strongly at the death to win going away. She has to improve, but she is owned by Lady Bamford who had incredible success with Sariska a few years ago and this filly might be just as good in time.

2.45 Stan James Chester Cup (2m2f 147y - 17 run)

A very good race with the popular dual purpose performer Countrywide Flame the likely favourite. He has a heart as big as a lion and has plenty in his favour in this race as well, with a low draw in stall 4, a lovely racing weight of eight stone nine pounds and must go very close indeed. There are a few familiar names to jumps fans as well with Jonjo O'Neill, Willie Mullins, Phillip Hobbs, David Pipe and Donald McCain with runners. Jonjo runs Tominator, a horse who never looked a natural over hurdles, was narrowly behind Countrywide Flame in the Cesarewitch last season and will be thereabouts once more. The McCain duo could figure, last years winner Ile De Re but more so Thimaar, who has flopped badly over hurdles but this former Queen's Prize winner could be perked up by a combination of blinkers, a good draw, this style of track and Graham Lee sat on his back. The final one I like is Theology for Paul Hanagan. He has only won once but that was in May and also placed in a Listed race behind Times Up in this corresponding month too. He has ran once at Chester before, when finishing third carrying top weight in a Listed handicap after meeting trouble in running. He's had one run since a long layoff which was full of promise at Kempton and at 25/1, must be worth a small each way interest.

3.15 Stellar Group Handicap (5f 16y - 13 run)

A very tricky race in which it could pay to stick to Last Sovereign, who has been unlucky not to get his head in front in his last two starts. He is a course winner, has stall 1 and Franny Norton rides which are all big positives and a small stakes bet would be advised.

3.50 Boodles Diamond Maiden Stakes (1m2f 75y - 12 run)

A good level maiden which includes one of my Dark Horses Number One London. I am slightly surprised to see him lining up in a maiden after recieving his handicap mark, which I think is a touch leniant at 82. However, he has had a run this season so will be more race fit than some and I'm sure he won't be far away at the business end. In terms of dangers, Space Ship has the most form in the book, but I don't think he has many gears and on a track like this, may struggle. Russian Realm ran a debut full of promise at Sandown and will have strengthened up over the winter, but the issue is the wide draw.

The 4.25 and 5.00 look tricky, but Masamah and Gabrial The Master are the two tentative votes in those races.

I hope you have found this informative and hopefully a few winners are mixed in.
Any feedback? Either fill in the box below or tweet me @willbowler2k12.

Enjoy,
Will