Last weekend, I was in Northumberland helping to promote and sell idiosyncratic beer (www.fromthenotebook.co.uk) and this week I'll be watching two classics at the most idiosyncratic Flat track in Britain at Epsom, and it is the two days I look forward to most in the Flat calendar. It has been a very lucky meeting for me over the years, and many of you will know Stone Of Folca was a huge winner for me at last year's meeting at 50/1 in the Dash. Hopefully I will try and eek out some more gems for this meeting in 2013.
FRIDAY:
I have to say that Friday provides us with less concrete selections than Saturday. I'll start with the big one, the Oaks. I think everyone who saw Secret Gesture win at Lingfield was impressed, but what did she beat? She couldn't have done it any easier but the previous question will always be a cloud over her until she runs tomorrow. I don't think she represents any value but I thoroughly respect her as a very live contender. Moth is a huge threat but she has been beaten in three of four starts, an odd profile for an O'Brien classic contender. She was also quite green in the Guineas. Liber Nauticus isn't too disimilar in the sense that she won a good class race with plenty in hand. She is a huge filly and Sir Michael Stoute is having a remarkable start to the season but I will be opposing her here. This race in recent times has thrown up a few left field winners including Look Here and last year's winner Was. I like Banoffee a lot after her smooth Chester win despite an interrupted passage. Kieren Fallon gave her a glowing report afterwards and it is rare for Fallon to get so animated about a horse with as little experience as she has. She should handle the track and will definitely stay. I think Madame Defarge will reverse the form with Talent from Newmarket and Michael Bell's other runner, The Lark, would be worth a few pennies each way. She needed the run at Newbury and has 'come on considerably' according to her trainer. Her dam is a half sister to the brilliant Sariska who won this race and could outrun her odds.
The other race I like for angles is the Investec Mile handicap at 3.20. I am particularly interested to see how Karam Albaari runs for John Jenkins. He has only won once which was on debut at Yarmouth but recently made a comeback from injury at the same course three and a half weeks ago staying on late in the day over seven furlongs. I don't think he's one to go mad on, but he could easily run better than around 20/1 indicates. Both Hefner and Benzanno were eyecatchers at Chester, and the latter has good course form meaning they both have a part to play.
SATURDAY:
Once again, we will begin with a look at the Classic on Saturday, the Derby. Dawn Approach is a very worthy favourite and I fully respect his chances as I think he is very good indeed. There are, however, concerns. The ground, trip and track all being factors that could go against him. Battle Of Marengo is the head of the busy Coolmore battalion and is still unbeaten. However, he has to improve on all known form and I would rather swerve him. I think another Aiden O'Brien runner is the best value in the race, and that's Mars for champion jockey Richard Hughes. He seems to be the forgotten horse in the build up, which surprises me after the pre-Guineas hype. He actually ran a very good race in the Guineas to be sixth on his second start on a racecourse. He is by Galileo so should stay the mile and a half no problem and at 14/1 I'm willing to give him a chance. I also have a Dark horse running in the shape of Mirsaale for James Tate. I think he is a bit big at 100/1 considering he is the only one in the race with a course win, and I really fancy him to beat Libertarian in a match bet as well.
As for the Dash at 3.15, the race which Stone Of Folca won for me last year, I think I may have found the solution again with a couple of runners. Confessional is my first choice for Tim Easterby. He has been unlucky in this race for the past two years and providing he gets a clear passage and I think he's a fair bet at 16/1. Taajub is the other one I quite like for Peter Crate. He has a decent course record without winning, but more importantly broke fast and got across from a low draw, which he has on Saturday in stall 4. He worth a poke at 25/1.
The undercard is high in quality, especially the Coronation Cup which should go to St Nicholas Abbey for the third year running. I think John Biscuit is one to watch in the 4.50 as well, with trainer Andrew Balding having a good record in handicaps at this meeting.
I hope you have enjoyed reading the preview and hopefully a few winners will come out of it.
Any feedback? Tweet me @willbowler2k12.
Enjoy the racing,
Will
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