Cheltenham 2014 - Day 2 Preview

Unfortunately there is no Sprinter Sacre this year to light up the Wednesday of the Festival, but with the reshuffle of races at this year's meeting, it means there is a higher chance of us seeing a smart novice in either the Neptune, RSA or Fred Winter, and that's leaving out the Bumper. I have some strong fancies on this day in particular so let's hope they perform to their best.

Wednesday:

1.30 Neptune Novice Hurdle:

Ballyalton (right) fends off Garde La Victoire at Cheltenham in December

This is the race that I am looking forward to the most all week. I am definitely up for opposing Faugheen at the likely short price as his jumping in Ireland so far hasn't entirely convinced, albeit over slightly taller Easyfix hurdles last time at Limerick. He has a very similar hype to Pont Alexandre who failed last year and hasn't been seen this term due to injury and I just feel as though I can take him on. The main one to do it with of course is Red Sherlock, who is still unbeaten for the Pipes and is a dual Cheltenham winner; a massive plus. He won takingly last time when battling off Rathvinden up the hill and is sure to be involved at the business end. But as many of you know, I am a huge Ballyalton fan and I see no reason why he won't figure here. The ground was awful when he ran last time so you can forget that run but prior to that he had won at Cheltenham beating Garde La Victoire recovering after a bad blunder, and beat Oscar Rock at Newcastle over further on good ground proving he stays.
With many of the horses ahead of him in the market between Red Sherlock and Ballyalton likely to come out, he is too big at 16/1 and certainly won't be that on the day.

2.05 RSA Chase:

O'Faolains Boy was good in the Reynoldstown at Ascot

This race is really wide open. I don't like Ballycasey though, he's a horse I've never really got a handle on which was topped off by his schooling fall at Leopardstown last week. The other thing is he hasn't won over three miles over fences yet. He was beaten by Morning Assembly last season at Punchestown and that rival is back again here and must be respected. Smad Place has finished third in the last two World Hurdles and is another to be wary of, but I'm keen on another British trained duo. Corrin Wood really impressed me at Warwick when he jumped Black Thunder, a very useful sort, into the ground. He is a very good jumper and stays particularly well, a vital tool in what is normally a gruelling event. Donald McCain has stressed that he doesn't have to lead though and hopefully he can get into a lovely rhythm.
The other is O'Faolains Boy, a horse who was fourth to stablemate At Fishers Cross in the Albert Bartlett last season after doing much of the donkey work for him. He scoped very badly at Haydock two runs ago when he was pulled up at halfway, but bounced back very well at Ascot last time to beat Many Clouds and Third Intention and if he could replicate that, he'd be sure to figure.
As for the others, Gevrey Chambertin might be overlooked at 33/1 after having a pace battle with Many Clouds in that Ascot race just mentioned, which after a break of four months meant he dropped away very tamely in the straight, but he did jump well enough to suggest he is an above average novice. If it came up good ground, then Le Bec would be a big threat too.

2.40 Coral Cup:

Alan King had a 1-2 in this last year, can he win it again?

The Coral Cup is a fantastic race and as a budding commentator, one I look forward to with the big field and fast pace. There have been some amazing finishes to this in the past, What's Up Boys always springs to mind and some big gambles, with Son Of Flicka the biggest landed in recent times. This time around, Dunguib heads the weights for Phillip Fenton, a horse who won the Festival Bumper so easily in 2009 before going off a 4/5 favourite for the 2010 Supreme Novices, but was beaten by Menorah into third. He has only run a handful of times since and is very hard to keep sound but he'd be a fascinating runner nonetheless. Meister Eckhart is my main fancy for the race after his excellent second in it last year to the plucky Medinas and a very decent comeback effort at Fontwell where a) the ground was too deep for him and b) he needed the run badly.
Although higher in the weights this time, I see it hard for him not to be there at the business end.
The other three I can see going well are Clerks Choice, a horse with some good backform at the course and who's been doing well on the all weather since moving stables, Party Rock, who won four races on the spin last March/April and needs good ground to be at his best and Bayan, an improver from the Gordon Elliott yard in Ireland that loves a big field and ran Sametegal very close here in October and recieves a further 8lbs from rival here should they both run.

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase:

Sire De Grugy - Banker or lay?

To answer the question above, I think Sire De Grugy is a lay at the price for sure. He has been beaten three times over fences in his life from eleven starts, two of which have been here at Cheltenham, behind Captain Conan and Kid Cassidy, who will both line up against him here priced at around 5/1 and 10/1 at the time of writing. Kid Cassidy is not an easy ride, but you can forget his run in Ireland last time as he didn't travel over very well and the race wasn't run to suit him so AP wasn't hard on him when his chance was gone. Captain Conan is a threat for sure if he runs to his best.
Back to Sire De Grugy, Gary Moore has only trained one Festival winner in the past, which was Tikram in the Mildmay Of Flete many years ago and Jamie Moore has never ridden a Festival winner. It is not that I dislike the horse or connections, it is that he is a very poor value bet in my opinion at around 2/1 or 9/4.
What does win then I hear you say? Well, I was very keen on Benefficient but he is going to the Ryanair instead so I'll plump for Hinterland to give Paul Nicholls a winner. He is a previous course winner, but he has excelled this season in his second season as a novice chaser, beating the likes of Balder Succes, Taquin Du Seuil and Grandouet in the Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown when last seen in December and will love the decent ground. Noel Fehily rides which is another big plus.
Arvika Ligeonniere ran a shocker in last year's Arkle and looks much better going right handed to me. Both Module and Sizing Europe are others with chances but more a race to watch than bet in.

4.00 Cross Country Handicap Chase:

Sire Collonges (pink and black stripes) loved this course last time

Like this race or not, it certainly provides a different spectacle for people at the Festival. Balthazar King is a hard horse to pass when given good ground on this course, so is definitely the one to beat. Last year's winner Big Shu comes back for a bit more and must be feared but I'm siding with another Nicholls runner, this time Sire Collonges. I have backed him for the Grand National and this eight year old relished the cross country fences when winning here last time under Ryan Mahon. He loves good ground and I think he is a rattling each way bet. Love Rory may be the biggest threat should he take to Cheltenham on his first try for the cross country master Enda Bolger.

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle:

Goodwood Mirage could be well handicapped

It's not a race that I find easy, similarly I don't think the handicapper does because he has very little evidence to try and give a horse a mark, and he may be 10lbs too harsh or 10lbs too lenient. I can find two of interest, and as my Twitter followers know, I'm very keen on Goodwood Mirage. He was bought for 380,000 guineas for Lady Bamford with the aim of winning the JCB Triumph Hurdle; JCB being the Bamford's famous business. After winning at Kempton on debut, he struggled at Cheltenham next time before really catching the eye at Kempton in the Adonis. He will definitely appreciate the better ground on offer next week, plus the end to end gallop which he would have become accustomed to on the level, something he hasn't yet experienced over hurdles which will help his jumping. He has a mark of 132 and I think he will go very well.
The other horse I like is David Pipe's only entry Azza under Tom Scudamore who could be quite well in off 129, and although I am not a trends man, she does fit all the trends for this race and at 25/1 might be worth an each way flutter.

5.15 Champion Bumper:

Modus storming up the Cheltenham hill on New Year's Day

One of the few races all week I have no real opinion about, but from what I have of Modus, he must run well for rookie trainer Robert Stephens. He has bolted up on both starts to date, at Exeter on debut and Cheltenham subsequently when he showed a very good turn of foot on bad ground. With a flat pedigree, you would think that would only be enhanced again on better ground and he is probably the best of the British runners, ahead of Our Kaempfer and El Namoose. Oscarteea could go well for the Honeyball yard.
As for the Irish, I was at Doncaster's preview evening recently and the panel put up a big argument for Killultagh Vic for Willie Mullins, who will be ridden by Ruby Walsh. He hammered Golantilla who was third in this race last year at Naas last time and could be the value Irish play, although personally I was impressed with Value At Risk's easy Leopardstown win.

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Be lucky,
Will