Day 1:
1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle:
What a way to start, a cracker of a Supreme with My Tent Or Yours a warm order at the top of the market. Anyone who saw him win the Betfair Hurdle could only have been breathtaken with the way he went about it, pulling hard early and then effortlessly pulling away to win by five lengths, on only his fourth hurdles start. The negatives are that he has never run at Cheltenham before, which means the hill is an unknown. The other slight negative is that last season he ran once in March and April, and was beaten twice.
As for challengers, Jezki is second favourite, another for JP McManus. He has looked very impressive over hurdles to date, but I can find 3 big worries for him. Firstly, the ground will be considerably quicker than what he has been winning on in Ireland. Secondly, his only previous Cheltenham run, the Bumper at last years meeting, he finished eighth in his only jumps defeat. Finally, he hasn't run in 2013, which I worry about least but some say it is a negative.
Melodic Rendezvous cannot be discounted at all for Jeremy Scott after a great season and has previous winning form at Cheltenham too, likewise River Maigue, the runner up in a farcical race at Ascot last time, must be considered.
For me though the value is Dodging Bullets for Paul Nicholls. Funnily enough, he is bred by Frankie Dettori! He was very inexperienced but ran a screamer in the Triumph last year, arguably making his challenge earlier than ideal. He then got very badly hampered and lost all chance at Aintree. This season, he has settled much better, winning twice at Cheltenham before finishing a very good third in the Christmas Hurdle off a slow pace. I can see him getting a little outpaced before flying home, similar to Al Ferof when he won this race a few years ago, and at 9/1, he looks a great each way bet.
2.05 Arkle Novice Chase:
Simonsig versus Overturn basically!! It promises to be a cracker. I love both horses, but can only see one really winning. That one is Simonsig. He ran 5 times over hurdles compared to Overturn's 19, and was only rated 4lbs below him. Nicky Henderson has said that he is 'among the top 5 he has trained' and that 'if he ran in the Champion Hurdle this season, he'd win it'. Unfortunately for old Overturn, he will do all the donkey work, before Barry Geraghty looms alongside at the second last and goes away, well that's how I think it will play out anyway!. Overturn must be an owners dream, Galway Hurdle, Chester Cup, Northumberland Plate, Scottish Champion Hurdle, Fighting Fifth Hurdle plus many more fantastic achievments, but I can't see him beating Simonsig, and the closer we get, the less I can see him winning.
2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase:
This looks a very tricky handicap to work out indeed. Last years winner Alfie Sherrin would have a chance, but whether he has his mind set on Aintree instead of Cheltenham this time I'm not sure. If Monkerty Tunkerty snook in to the field, then he would have a chance for Jess Westwood. My two against the field at present however are Our Mick and Midnight Chase. The former was third in this same contest last year off just a pound lower. He has only ran once this season, when unseating here when giving Katenko a good race on Trials Day. He has been found in the market but must go very well again. Midnight Chase needs three things to show his best, Cheltenham, Ground on the soft side of good and an easy lead. He has dropped to a mark of 152, which is very tempting indeed. He may get hassled by Fruity O'Rooney for the lead, but he has the other two factors firmly in his favour. He has started at 9/1 and 12/1 for the last 2 Gold Cups, but is 20/1 for this. That looks very good value, and the trainer Neil Mulholland has said the same , reporting him in good heart.
3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle:
Another belter! The last three winners of the race line up here against last years Supreme and Triumph Hurdle winners, plus Grandouet and Zarkandar!! I want to take on Hurricane Fly, not because I don't like him, because he's no value for what he has beaten this year. He has beaten stablemate Thousand Stars, Unaccompanied and Captain Cee Bee easily, but what are they in the context of the 2013 Champion Hurdle? Zarkandar has done nothing wrong this year but I think he isn't particularly good value either compared to Rock On Ruby, who beat him a little more than six and a half lengths last year.
At the current prices, Rock On Ruby is by far the bet in the race for me each way. He is the reigning champion and represents a stable in top form as well. Cinders And Ashes and Countrywide Flame could both be overpriced as well but I will stick with Rock On Ruby at around 11/2.
4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase:
The commentators nightmare The Cross Country is a fiercely competitive event which has been pretty much exclusively won by Ireland, until last year when Balthazar King and Richard Johnson broke the English Hoodoo in the race, and he is joint favourite to win it again. He is bound to go well. I think however the other joint favourite Arabella Boy will be tough to beat. Trainer Enda Bolger has a stranglehold over this race and Nina Carberry said recently that he had a 'great chance'. The one that interests me is Shalimar Fromentro for Nick Williams, a horse who has been campaigning in France in recent times. He needs a few horses to come out for him to get a run, but you can bet non runner no bet.
4.40 OLBG Mares Hurdle:
Quevega will win this, I'm sure! If she does, she will become the first horse since Golden Miller to win at five consecutive Festivals. She has beaten most of her rivals in the past and she looks my banker of the week. The value is Alasi for Paul Webber each way but it looks a race to watch and admire rather than bet in.
5.15 Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase:
Anybody who follows me on Twitter (@willbowler2k12) will know I really like The Druids Nephew (pictured above) for Andy Turnell for this race. He was a Dark Horse for me at the start of the season, and he has done me proud. A very unlucky loser at Ascot on chase debut was followed by a slightly disappointing effort over three miles at Kempton, where he didn't stay. He then bounced back at Wincanton, recording a very comfortable victory over Grandioso, a dual winner since. I think he will go very well indeed.
I don't fancy Attaglance at all, he doesn't jump anywhere near well enough for this type of test. The danger is Carlito Brigante, but he has been spotted by the market and isn't much value at the moment.
I hope you have enjoyed my look at Tuesday, and hopefully I have found some winners for you.
Will
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