The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the first major handicap of the jumps season proper, and what a roll of honour it has, mainly Martin Pipe appeared down the 'trainer' column with the likes of Shooting Light and Cyfor Malta. In recent years, Imperial Commander won this in 2008, and Long Run got beaten by Little Josh in 2010, before the Pipe dynasty continued last year with Great Endeavour scoring easily.
Could it be another Pipe winner?: I think it could be certainly, Grand Crus is starting to look well handicapped on his hurdles mark of 167, he runs on Saturday off 157, after being dropped a few pounds for a lacklustre run in the RSA Chase, which looks to have excuses (scoped dirty afterwards). The only concern would be that historically the RSA takes so much out of horses, for example Cooldine and Bostons Angel have both struggled in top company since their wins in that race in recent years. Despite that, he has top course form and should go very close.
Bugger the Cows and Lump on Hunt Ball?: It seems a long time ago since I saw Hunt Ball get beaten in a handicap chase at Plumpton on January 2nd off 102, he now competes off 157! His meteoric rise through the weights last season was highlighted by an easy win at the Festival, carrying 12st, and then a great run at Aintree in the Betfair Bowl, only beaten 3 and a quarter lengths. I would rather have him with me than against, but can he really sustain this improvement?
What about Walkon?: Walkon was a very good novice hurdler, finishing 2nd at the Festival behind Reve De Sivola in 2009. But last season, after an impressive chase debut at Exeter, he was well beaten in all his remaining starts behind the likes of Cue Card, For Non Stop and Bobs Worth. They even tried the Scottish National on his final start where he pulled up. I think he is risky, but can see the argument behind him. Despite the confidence of the trainer, for me,two miles is his best trip and he might find this too difficult.
A Nicky Henderson winner?: Quantitativeeasing was 2nd in this last year, but off an 11lb lower mark, but does go well fresh and will be running on well up the hill. Nadiya De La Vega is the pick of Tony McCoy, but has only won fresh, the shortest time between a win and previous race is 2 months (only 28 days this time). Triolo D'Alene is the mount of Barry Geraghty, but ran his worst race last season here, and is prone to a mistake. Saying all that, he is only 5 and has had time to strengthen and mature since we last saw him.
The Paul Nicholls runners?: The old boy Poquelin is a standing dish in these type of races at Cheltenham, and will run his heart out without quite being good enough. Al Ferof is an interesting runner who is attracting plenty of money in the ante post markets. He was blisteringly good here on reappearance last season, but was eventually a little disappointing in the top class Festival races. He has won a point to point over 3 miles, but he has to give weight to Grand Crus and Hunt Ball, and that is a significant worry for me. Aerial was fourth in this last year and has improved since, but needs to find more to better last years result.
Any others?: I hope that Calgary Bay runs well on the day of the first running of the Henrietta Knight handicap chase earlier in the card, but is very high in the handicap. The Disengager improved a lot through the Summer, but this is an entirely different ball game. Kingsmere was bang there when falling here in a novice chase last time, and off exactly 10st and Sam Twiston Davies aboard, could go well. Divers also has a chance if they go off fast (almost a given), as Timmy Murphy will be able to work his magic, and his yard are in unusually good form for this time of year. You probably think I'm mad, but I could see Gilbarry going well too, despite being 10lb out the handicap, he really caught my eye last time and I could see him outrunning his 66/1 price.
In Summary: An on song Grand Crus will be very hard to beat, with the yard having such a good record in the race and potentially looking well handicapped too. Hunt Ball can't be discounted for eccentric owner Anthony Knott either, but can he keep getting better? A few to look at each way are Divers, Kingsmere and Gilbarry at the bottom of the weights.
Hope you have found this useful, and enjoy the race and the rest of the racing on Saturday.
Will
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